Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Week #12 Quality Control



Funny week on totals, as even though I hit 75% across the board I was only up 1 unit on the plays. Of the 4 stat estimated totals in which my original projections were wrong, 2 of those I actually bet and won on. 2 of my strongest Unders, 2 unit plays, lost in actuality though they should've covered. In fact, not a single Under that I bet last week should've lost, though 3 of them did. Even the NO/GB game, oddly enough, should've gone Under the 53.5 opening line by a few points. Turnovers, short fields from returns, and insane red zone production pushed that one way over the total, unfortunately. So yeah, funny week as a couple of the 1 unit plays won that shouldn't have, while a couple of the bigger plays lost that should've won.

On sides it was more bad luck than good, as once again I managed to bet on a few teams that outgained their opponents in straight up losses. On the turnover ratio I was -6, mostly due to the -5 ratio in 2 separate games -- both of which happened to be featured write up games that went horribly wrong. The Eagles did indeed suck, but by yards and yards per play they should've only lost by a couple of points, while the Chiefs in fact should've beat the Bills. The Cardinals, Panthers and Chargers also outgained their opponents in losing causes.

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