Week #10 Freebie

Packers @ Vikings

Here we have a game that features one team that should’ve won last week, but lost, and a team that won handily, but could’ve easily lost. Not surprisingly, the value this week is on the team that really should have won last week, the Green Bay Packers. The Packers outgained the Titans in yards, 390-347, and yards per play, 5.7 to 4.6. They lost by going 1 for 4 in the red zone, turning the ball over twice in Titans’ territory, and failing to convert on 4th and short twice. The Vikings, meanwhile, did have a higher yards per play average than their opponent, the Texans, though fewer yards over all. A +2 turnover ratio was the difference for the Vikings in covering at home.

You’d think the Vikings are a stronger running team than passing team, but that hasn’t necessarily been the case since Frerotte took over at QB, as they’re near league average in both departments, and ranked one spot higher with the pass than the run by my rankings. Clearly Frerotte is able to exploit teams choosing to key defensively on the run, which was something Tarvaris Jackson wasn’t doing well. The Vikings were 0-2 with Jackson, and 4-2 with Frerotte. The Packers have such a good pass defense, however, that they can afford to put an extra man in the box and rely on their man coverage of the wide receivers. Their rush defense, though, is only ranked 28th, and they suffer from occasional gap mistakes, as we saw last week versus the Titans. Still, it’s not a horrible way to defend, I’m thinking (just my observations, lol). It’s better to give up three two yard runs and then a 20 yarder then four yards every rush, as you can force some forth downs when the other team doesn’t hit the big play. The Packers will mostly be playing the same defensive scheme again this week as last, but with a little more pressure in the secondary because the Vikings are more capable of hitting the home run pass than the Titans are. So the Packers should have decent defensive success versus the Vikings, who’ll have to work hard for their points just like the Titans did last week.

The Packers, unsurprisingly, have been offensively better passing than running. They’re widely regarded as the team with the most weapons at the WR and TE positions. The Vikings keyed on limiting Andre Johnson’s success last week, which they did fairly well, but it allowed TE Owen Daniels to have a monster game in both catches and yards. You can’t key on any one of the Packers’ pass threats, as every one of them can beat you for a big play. Jared Allen, sack specialist for the Vikings, will probably miss this game with a probable torn ligament in his shoulder. Extra time in the pocket is not something you want to give Aaron Rodgers, but it looks like he’ll be getting it. The Vikings did run some good corner blitzes versus the Saints earlier this year that resulted in a sack/fumble/td that helped them win the game – they’ll have to rely on pressure from different places to make up for Jared Allen’s absence. Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder still isn’t 100%, and he still suffers from soreness after every game. So far, though, he’s looked pretty good in games so there’s no apparent reason why this week should be any different. As the Packers were able to move the ball in between the 20s well last week versus a better pass defense than the Vikings have, I see no reason why they shouldn’t have decent success again.

Given the offensive match ups, these teams should perform fairly equally, so this game has a high likelihood of coming down to special teams performances, and that is where the Packers have a distinct advantage. They punt the ball better, have better punt coverage, they kick off the ball deeper for more touchbacks, and allow fewer yards per return. The Vikings do have a better kick off return yards average. If you’ll recall, the Packers won the opening week match up thanks to a punt return touchdown, and most of you probably saw the two Reggie Bush punt returns against the Vikings as well. I’m going to go out on a sturdy limb and say that a big special teams play will once again give the Packers a victory versus the Vikings.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 21 – Vikings 20

The Under 45.5 in this game is one of the few playable totals left on the board this week.