Week #12 Bengals @ Steelers

Let me start this by saying that I think the zebras (If they’re to be nicknamed after animals, maybe we should start calling them dodos instead? Honestly, I look forward to the day when refs are no longer needed in any sport, as microchip, laser and video technology should remove the human-error officiating element from sporting events in the glorious future I envision!) will have a great enthusiasm for favoring Pittsburgh with their calls. After last Sunday’s debacle they’d like to leave town safely instead of finding themselves at the bottom of any one of three conveniently located rivers. I personally don’t want to re-regrade a losing bet on Pittsburgh again. Oh the joy of getting the miracle cover (though it should have been an easy cover as Pittsburgh dominated offensively but couldn’t score touchdowns), only to come back minutes later and find a touchdown taken off the board! So yeah, I don’t think we’ll see a 13-1 penalty calls against Pittsburgh disparity this week, unless, of course, they earn them.

I’m confident the Bengals will earn more than one flag, and I’m almost certain they’ll be called for offensive holding at least 2-3 times in this game. The Bengals have obviously not had much to be positive about this season, getting off to an 0-3 start versus very good teams while Carson Palmer was QB, and then going 1-5-1 after Fitzpatrick replaced him. Fitzpatrick has shown some improvement, earning a passer rating a little shy of 90 over his last two games. One thing the Bengals were grateful for, up until last week, was the health of their offensive line. Heading into week #11, the Bengals had started the same 5 on the offensive line all season. Statistically, offensive line continuity is a big plus for any team. Now the Bengals don’t even have that going for them, as both left tackle Levi Jones and left guard Andrew Whitworth were injured last week and are looking doubtful for Thursday. That means just promoted from the practice squad Nate Livings could start at left guard and rookie Anthony Collins could start at left tackle. Ummm, yeahhhh, it’s not looking good for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blindside versus the best and #1 most sack-happy defense in the league. Speaking of technology, I think Ryan’s looking into installing a surveillance camera on the left side of his helmet today. Plus there’s the added stress of it being a road game for him under the spotlights of a nationally televised game. So yes, I foresee an offensive holding or three in this game for the Bengals.

So, offensively it looks like the Bengals will be hard pressed to get the 13.8 points per game they’ve been averaging this year. Still, they’ve got that talented trio of receivers and it only takes a few big plays in a game to get into scoring range a few times, so my numbers have them getting 13 points in this game in spite of the injuries to their offensive line.

The Steelers, for their part, are highly motivated to find the endzone multiple times this week, as they’re currently experiencing a touchdown drought of over 6 quarters in length. The good news is that it hasn’t been due to a lack of yards, so that variance should flatten out with them scoring a minimum of three touchdowns in this game barring a serious downgrade in the weather forecast. They’ll almost certainly have lots of opportunities to do so, as they should fine themselves with good field position to begin many drives. The Bengals should have numerous punts from deep in their own territory which should set the Steelers up near mid-field. The Steelers should have offensive success even when facing a long field ahead of them. In the first match up of these two teams in week #7 the Steelers were without RB Willie Parker. He and the Steelers’ run game got off to a slow start this season in part due to injuries along the offensive line. Those offensive line injuries still exist, but the team is adapting and improving the run since Parker’s return. The Bengals have had a surprisingly decent defense this year, but they’ve been getting progressively more injured since the week #7 game, a game which saw the Steelers reel off a bunch of 4th quarter points en route to a 35-10 victory.

In summary, the Steelers’ offense should be better and the Bengals’ defense worse since their earlier contest, and it’s a home game for Pittsburgh. Of all the games on the board this week, this one has the most potential to get out of hand and turn into a blowout. Not only should Pittsburgh have numerous short fields to work with, it’s highly likely they’ll have at least one extremely short field after a Fitzpatrick fumble or interception, which may be returned for a touchdown, scoring points without even putting the offense on the field. With the low total of 34, it won’t be hard to get this one Over after a couple of big plays in spite of the near-freezing (30% chance snow, 10-15 mph winds) weather.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 13 – Steelers 24