Week #14 Write-Ups, Lines & Values
Legend
Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value
Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value
Rams/+9.5/+8/Rams 2.8% value
Bengals/45/43.5/Under 2.9% value
Bulger got a case of the woozies on Thursday after being cleared to play on Tuesday and now it looks like he’ll definitely be out Sunday. That means a steady diet of Stephen Jackson running the ball to set up the passing game. Ghiaciuc, the Bengals’ starting center, left last game with an injury and is still “?”. Willie Anderson, their Pro
Bowl tackle, has missed the last 6 games and though listed as “?” is probably doubtful as he’s been listed as “?” before the last few games. Throw in a moderately cold, wet day and the scoring might not come in buckets like they often do in Bengal games. The Bengals struggled mightily on offense in their last game on the sloppy Heinz Field, but will find enough of the recent offensive success they’d regained since the return of Chris Henry and Rudi Johnson to win handily at home.
Final Score Prediciton: Rams 19 – Bengals 26
Chargers/0/-1.5/Chargers 4.1% value
Titans/39.5/41/Over 4.1% value
The Titans ended a three game skid last week at home versus the deteriorating Texans, but that’s not enough to convince me that they’ve overcome the poor play that plagued them during said losing streak. Yes, Haynesworth’s absence at DT was a big part of the reason they struggled on defense, but he’s still not 100% and is missing practices, and had nothing to do with the Titans only scoring 6 points versus a crummy Bengal defense 2 weeks ago. Facing a team that is balanced both offensively and defensively this week, the Titans will take a step back again as their average run-game and and inferior pass-game will once again come up short.
The Chargers got out of the gate slow this year under Norv Turner’s first turn at the coaching helm, but have since righted the ship and carry a lot of momentum into this game. Momentum aside, the Chargers have enough of a statistical edge to win this road game.
Final Score Prediction: Chargers 21 – Titans 20
Cowboys/-10.5/-12/Cowboys 3.4% value
Lions/50.5/49.5/Under 2.4% value
Kitna has got himself in a caboodle over the comments he made last year after the Lions upset the Cowboys. As the Lions figure to be playing from behind for most of this game, the oft-sacked Kitna will be pulverized by the Cowboy’s speedy pass-rushing linebackers Ware and Ellis in predictable passing situations. The Lions’ top WR, Roy Williams, is done for the year. There really is no ray of light for the Lions this week. The only thing they’ll have going for them after this game is that it’ll be just a car ride home from the game instead of an airplane ride. The fans will probably beat them out of the stadium by at least one quarter, though.
The Cowboys have such good offensive balance and scheming under Jason Garrett’s coordinating, the Lions will be at the mercy of the opponents dropped into their den, though I don’t think there is anyone on the Cowboys’ roster named Daniel, is there? At some point in the second half the Cowboys may favor the running game versus a tired Lions’ defense and their scoring will slow down enough to go Under the number.
Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 31 – Lions 19
Bucs/-3/-6/Bucs 7.5% value
Texans/40.5/40/Under 0.9% value
This line opened at Bucs -1.5. Say what to who? Man, I hate lines that are not released with the pack on Sunday night, because unless your ass is cemented to your computer chair you stand a good chance of missing a favorable opening line such as this one. No worries, the Bucs will still cover the -3 and pummel a Texans’ squad that is losing more players on their side than the Republicans in public office. A few fresh injuries did show up on the Bucs’ roster today (Hilliard WR, Pittman RB, and Nece LB), but they’re all “?” at worst and stand a good chance of playing. The Texans’ lost starting RG Fred Weary to a broken leg (along with their backup center), Ahman Green was put on the IR, and Ron Dayne will be playing at less than 100%. Matt Schaub is out at QB, though Sage is a fair backup.
I see the game progressing like this: The Bucs, with their balanced offense, lead most of the way as they’ll score versus a poor Texans’ defense. The Texans, with a horrible run-game to begin with, will have to play catch-up in the second half, which will lead to sacks and turnovers versus one of the best pass-defenses in the league, ensuring the victory for the visiting Bucs.
Final Score Prediction: Bucs 23 – Texans 17
Raiders/+10.5/+11.5/Packers 3.0% value
Packers/40/41.5/Over 3.2% value
It’ll be colder than a well-digger’s ass in Lambeau on Sunday, advantage Favre. Winds look mild, so as long as his receivers keep their hands warm the Packers should still have good success in the passing game in spite of that being the stronger part of the Raiders’ defense. The Packers will run enough to keep the Raiders honest though, and to see how many holes they can find in the Raiders’ suspect run-defense. The Raiders would love to stick with the run as long as they can in this game, as they’ve been pretty successful with it since giving the starting job to Fargas instead of the lumbering Jordan. The Packers have a better than average run defense, though, so long drives turned into points will be hard for the Raiders to come by. With temperatures below 20 degrees, Janikowski might not be sent out there to kick 55-yarders like he’s accustomed to doing. The Raiders will probably need to get to the 30 yard line to put him in range.
McCown had a pretty good game at QB versus the Broncos last week. He’s capable of big plays and throws, but still inconsistent with the limited amount of NFL experience he has. The Raiders have some momentum coming into this game, so it’ll be interesting to see how long they can sustain that momentum on the frozen tundra. Like any team better at running than passing and facing a superior team (like the Ravens versus the Patriots last week), staying close to the Packers will be crucial to the Raiders because they’ll struggle if they have to rely on the pass. I think it will come down to that in the second half, however, and the Raiders will then make enough mistakes and be unable to score late, giving the Packers the home cover (if Favre is indeed mostly healthy and playing).
Final Score Prediction: Raiders 14 – Packers 28
Panthers/+10.5/+6.5/Panthers 10.2% value
Jaguars/38.5/40.5/Over 5.7% value
Their run defense is almost as good as the Jaguars’ (better in yards per carry allowed, but they’ve faced softer running teams), and their pass defense is clearly better than the Jaguars’. The Panthers have really been out of favor because of the losing streak they hit once all of their quarterbacks were injured simultaneously. With Testaverde making his second consecutive start the offense has had solid practice for two + weeks. The Panthers have also been a fairly healthy squad. They lost Del Homme and LB Dan Morgan earlier in the year, but since then they’ve had no key injuries. Other than their right guard, they’ve started the other four offensive lineman all 12 games this season, and have averaged over 4 yards per carry with a couple of average running backs. Statistically speaking, the Jaguars are not going to shut down the Panther running game, so Vinnie shouldn’t get creamed in this game.
The Jaguars have suffered many more injuries than the Panthers, most notably the loss of their starting MLB Mike Peterson with a broken hand. They do get Marcus Stroud back on their defensive line as his four game suspension is up. The Jaguars have had a good balanced offense this year behind the surprisingly efficient play of QB Garrard. Versus a good Carolina defense, they’ll have to execute pretty well to convert their yards into touchdowns. The Jaguars are always capable of dominating an opponent at home, but I think the Panthers are tough enough defensively to prevent the Jaguars from running away with this game.
Final Score Prediction: Panthers 17 – Jaguars 23
Giants/+3/+9/Eagles 14.7% value
Eagles/42/42.5/Over 1.1% value
Will it be McNabb or Feeley in this game? Hmm, would I rather have McNabb getting sacked or Feeley throwing interceptions in this game? Considering what happened the last time these two teams played, McNabb getting sacked a million times, I think I’d rather have Feeley in there and take my chances with the picks. Derrick Ward was having a good game at RB for the Giants versus the Bears last week until he went down with a broken leg. Brandon Jacobs looks to be back for the Giants this week, but he’s probably not 100% and was limited in practice this week, so we may not know until seeing him in how healthy he is. Ward may have been a better match-up versus the Eagle defense. Ward busted off some big runs by running outside of the tackles last week, which is where the Eagles were vulnerable to the run last week versus the Seahawks. Last week the Bears were soooo close to some big plays on screen passes to their RB Peterson trying to burn the aggressive Giants’ defense. Peterson was ankle tackled on a couple of plays that would’ve gone for big yards if he’d kept his feet. I expect the Eagles to dump the ball off to Westbrook quite a bit this week, he’s one of the best in the league catching the ball out of the backfield. Eli was able to lead a couple of late scoring drives last week for a change. He’ll have a harder time making up a deficit this week versus a better Eagles’ defense who get Mikell back at safety after he missed last week. Dawkins is “?”, but Lito Sheppard will be in there after being “?” during the week. Fading the Giants and playing the Ealges are two trends that continue this week. The Giants have too many injuries to their secondary and linebacking corps to shut down the Eagles’ offense for a second straight time. Plus, they’re running backs continue to have the injuries and Plaxico Burress has become less effective as the season has worn on with his ankle and knee problems. He didn’t practice at all again this week.
Final Score Prediction: Giants 17 – Eagles 26
Dolphins/+7/+12/Bills 14.8% value
Bills/34.5/36.5/Over 6.4% value
The Dolphins haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in 13 quarters, I believe. I think they’ll get a maximum of one in this game. With a struggling rookie at QB, an injured Chatman at running back, and their number one receiving option injured as well (Booker), it’s hard to imagine the Dolphin offense executing well enough in the frozen and snowy weather to score many points. It’ll be up to their defense to try and get some turnovers and good field position, but the Bills have been pretty good at taking care of the ball with a +3 turnover ratio. The Dolphins’ turnover ratio is -7. Trent Edwards had a pretty good game back as the Bills’ quarterback, and will certainly be no worse than the Dolphins’ Beck in this rookie battle. RB Lynch is still listed as “?” but coach Jauron is encouraged by his progress in practice and says it is likely he will play.
The Bills, with their great special teams play, will be set up with good field position many times in this game. I think they’ll get a key turnover or return that comfortably allows them to cover versus a winless, heartless (poor effort by the Dolphins at home last week) unaccustomed to the cold team who I think will pack it in the second half if they’re behind by a couple of scores, which is entirely possible. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bills lay a drubbing the Dolphins like the Jets did last week.
Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 13 – Bills 24
Vikings/-8.5/-10/Vikings 4.5% value
49ers/39/37/Under 4.5% value
This game is clearly a bad match-up for the 49er offense as they like to establish the run with Gore to set up the pass. Gore is predominantly an inside the tackles runner so he’ll be running into the brick wall that is the inside of the Vikings’ defensive line many times in this game, leaving the 49ers in many long down and distance situations. The oft-maligned Vikings’ pass defense has shown signs of improvement as witnessed by their holding the Lions to 10 points last week. They’re able to get to the quarterback enough and make enough plays in the secondary to have decent success on the obvious passing downs versus all but the best passing teams. The 49ers are still a poor passing team that gave up 6 sacks to Panthers last week and is giving up an average of 3.6 per game. Dilfer is mistake prone when under pressure, more so than Alex Smith as he lacks mobility to find a passing lane, so I expect the Vikings to get a couple of picks in this game if Dilfer decides not to take the sack, lol. Arnaz Battle, the 49ers’ leading receiver is injured and “?” this week as well. The Vikings will be missing DE Ray Edwards due to a 4 game steroid suspension, and one of his backups, Erasmus James, has just been placed on the IR. That leaves B. Robison to play the right side of the line, and he’s a better pass rusher than run stuffer, so the 49ers may favor running to that side. The Vikings do have an excellent linebacker in C. Greenway on that side, so expect him to be active at the line of scrimmage tomorrow to fill some holes on the right side.
The 49er defense is in bad shape as well, though the silver lining is that the majority of their injuries are in the secondary. Still, the Vikings passing game has been pretty efficient of late as teams have to respect the run and play-action so heavily. This has set up some big passing plays, so the second-stringers the 49ers will be forced to play at some positions in the secondary may be especially vulenerable. The 49ers have a decent run defense, but they’ll be overmatched by the Vikings’ run offense. The manner in which the Vikings have beached, pillaged and slaughtered their last two opponents will likely continue this week as well. The 49ers best chance is to hope that the Vikings run their ship into the Bay Bridge and are detained until they forfeit.
Final Score Prediction: Vikings 24 – 49ers 13
Cardinals/+7/+3.5/Cardinals 8.0% value
Seahawks/44/43.5/Under 0.9% value
The big question in this one is whether either of the Cardinals’ two main receivers, Fitzgerald and Boldin, will end up playing in this game. The Cards have some okay receivers behind them and an experienced QB in Warner, so their absence may not be as much of a crushing blow as some might think. If they can get one of these guys suited up and playing at near 100% there may not be much of a drop off in their offensive output. The Cardinals, in spite of their defensive injuries, held the Browns’ Derek Anderson to only around 50% pass completions last week. It’ll be a tougher challenge for them this week on the road versus a Seahawks’ offense with a better QB and more depth at wide receiver.
Right now it’s looking like weather won’t be a factor in this game. No wind and just a 30% chance of precipitation.
I’m showing some line value on the Cardinals right now (with their 2 receivers as “?”), but I’d probably want to hear that at least one of them was starting before kick off before making a wager on them.
Final Score Prediction: Cardinals 20 – Seahawks 24
Steelers/+10.5/+7/Steelers 7.0% value
Patriots/47/52/Over 10.2% value
The Patriots don’t look super-human anymore after two close wins in a row. Enter the Steelers, a team that appears to match-up very well against them. The Patriots win with the passing game, but the Steelers have the number one pass defense in the league. The Patriots were beat up on the line of scrimmage last week, and the Steelers have a good running game with Willie Parker and Najeh Davenmport returning after missing a game. The sharps pounded the Steeelers when this line was released, and anything over 10 still has good value. The Eagles were successful passing the ball down the middle of the field against the Patriots – Big Ben and the Steelers like to throw the ball down the middle of the field. He’s so tall he has better field vision over the line of scrimmage when compared to other QBs, lol. The Steelers should have give offensive success in this game if Big Ben continues to play at his normal level of ability.
The Patriots will be playing another game in which they won’t be able to score at will like they’d done earlier in the year. Honestly, a lot of the games in which they cruised to huge victories came against a line-up of clearly inferior opponents. Playing a third straight game against a physical team with a good defense means they’ll probably struggle to win just like they did in their previous two.
The weather, while near freezing, will be clear and not windy. I think both teams will have enough offensive success to put this one over the number that has dropped from its’ opener of 52 down to 47. I bet the Under 52 for a ½ unit when it first came out, and just added the Over 47 for 1 unit.
Final Score Prediction: Steelers 23 – Patriots 30
Browns/-3.5/0/Jets 7.0% value
Jets/47.5/45.5/Under 4.6% value
Barring the Thanksgiving thrashing the Jets took in Dallas, they’ve played pretty good ball lately in creaming the Dolphins last week and beating the Steelers in week 11. They had a season high 163 rushing yards last week versus the Dolphins who have a better run defense than the Browns do. As a result I expect the Jets to pound the rock at the Browns which will take a lot of the pressure off of Kellen Clemens at QB. With time he’s capable of making some good throws. Giving time to the opposing QBs is something the Browns excel at. Hopefully L. Coles will end up playing WR for the Jets tomorrow, as he’s their number one receiving target. The Jets will already be without J. Cotchery, their other starting WR, which leaves only B. Smith (decent) and J. McCareins (not so good) at WR. The Jets have 5 tight ends on their depth chart, with most of them missing time due to injuries this season. Baker, their number one option at TE will play in spite of a back injury he’s had for the latter half of the season. Their center, Mangold, is listed as “?” right now with a calf injury, but there hasn’t been any real news about him so I’d lean toward him playing. As long as the Jets can line up enough players in the skill positions to keep the Browns’ defense honest they should score enough points in this game to compete for the home victory.
The Jets’ run defense has toughed up since their week 10 bye, allowed 3.52 yards per carry per game versus the 4.31 they’d given up before that. Hopefully they’ll continue to defend the run well as the Browns with Jamal Lewis have run the ball pretty well against the average and poor run defenses they’ve played this year. The Browns do have a pretty big advantage in the pass game, though. If you take away the two games they played against the Steelers’ number one pass defense (and one of those games was the season opener that Charlie Frye started) the Browns are averaging almost 8 yards per pass attempt, which is pretty astounding. The Jets give up 6.8, so this game will come down to weather the Jets can continue to have the success they’ve had defending the pass in their last 3 games (4.59 yppaa) or not. The weather doesn’t look like it will be issue, so I’m going to trust that the Jets will be able to do enough offensively to cover the spread in this one.
Final Score Prediction: Browns 24 – Jets 23
Chiefs/+7/+9.5/Broncos 6.5% value
Broncos/37.5/38/Over 1.0% value
The Chiefs’ offensive line, which has played poorly this year, will be without Turley, Niswanger and starting tackle McIntosh for this game. The patchwork nature of their offensive line will make it hard for them to exploit a soft Bronco defensive line that has been vulnerable to the run this year. Even with decent blocking, who’s to say that rookie Kolby Smith will make enough good decisions at the line of scrimmage to pick up consistent yards anyway. He did have a good game versus the poor Raiders’ run defense, but then the Chiefs averaged just 3.52 ypc last week versus the Chargers. As the Chiefs figure to be playing from behind like they did last week, expect Croyle to be sacked or forced into bad throws numerous times. Chiefs quarterbacks were sacked a whopping 8 times last week, and they were tied at halftime. The Broncos have some good speed rushers that have been successful in games where the Broncos were leading – that’s the key. When the Broncos have been forced to defend the run they’ve gotten to the quarterback very well. As the Broncos will have every one of their skill players back in the lineup, I expect them to be playing with a decent lead throughout this entire game. While the weather will be very cold, it will be clear and not windy, so their superior passing game will give them a balanced offensive attack. The Broncos have had good success passing the ball when leading as well. Cutler has been able to run some good play-action bootlegs which have opened the field up for him to find any of his numerous good wide receivers and tight ends down the field. The Chiefs are often guilty of over-pursuing plays at the line of scrimmage, so the Broncos should be able to exploit this tendency with some cut back runs and the bootlegs.
I thought the Broncos would win handily versus the Raiders last week, but turnovers and the Raiders’ resurgent run-game with Fargas as the starter put the Broncos in unfavorable match-ups for a lot of that game. Like I said, the Broncos are a very good team when playing with the lead. The last time these teams played the Broncos did get the early lead and cruised to an easy victory in Kansas City. At home, I expect them to do it again.
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 14 – Broncos 24
Colts/- 9/-6/Ravens 6.9% value
Ravens/41.5/42.5/Over 2.5% value
The Ravens’ defense finally had most of its’ missing secondary players back last week, and they did a pretty good job against the Patriots. The zone blitzes got to Brady a few times and the physical handling of the wide receivers at the line of scrimmage disrupted the passing plays pretty well when penalties were not called on them, lol. Reed, McCallister and Rolle didn’t practice much this week, but hopefully they’re just resting and recuperating to be fresh for another physical battle this week. I expect most of those guys to be in there. Yes it was an extremely frustrating loss for them last week, but the Ravens will be up for a game against the Colts regardless of what happened to them the week or even the month before the game. They know they’re playing better on offense and defense right now then they had earlier in the year and are hungry to prove it to the world with a win against the Colts. The Ravens, of course, will look to get McGahee going on the ground to set up their passing game.
The Colts will do what the Colts do – run the no huddle to try and limit the opponent’s defensive substitutions while Peyton Manning spreads the ball around to his receivers, tight ends and running backs, all of whom are good pass-catchers. The temperature will be just above freezing, but the wind will be low and there will be minor precipitation. Most of the Colts running plays will be used to counter the Ravens’ zone blitzes, I suspect, so they may bust off a few good runs that way. I don’t expect them to line up and run right at the Ravens on first downs too often.
The Colts’ have been pretty average defending the run, so I expect the Ravens to have enough success running the ball against a small and somewhat injured Colts’ defensive line on a cold day to set up Boller for enough passes to keep this game within the number.
Final Score Prediction: Colts 24 – Ravens 19
Saints/-3.5/-0.5/Falcons 7.1% value
Falcons/42.5/39.5/Under 7.5% value
The Saints are down to a mostly healthy Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker at running back coming into this game. No big deal, really, as their running game has been pathetic anyway and they’ll just look to throw the ball mostly in a road game played in a pass-friendly dome. Still, the lack of balance may allow the Falcons to get enough sacks and make enough plays in the secondary to hold the Saints to their 22 point season average. The Falcons have averaged a horrible 14.3 points this year, as they’ve had numerous injuries to their offensive line and quarterbacks. It’s hard to get anything going when your offensive line is constantly being reshuffled while lining up a different QB every few games. The Falcons will go with Redman this week after he came in and game them a spark in the second half versus the Rams last week. He came up one drive short of leading them to a come from behind victory after being down 21-0 at the half. Against a crummy Saints’ pass defense, I think that momemtum will carry forward and the Falcons will score closer to what the Saints allow , 23, than the 14 the Falcons have averaged.
The Saints have had a pretty good run defense this year, but the Bucs gashed them for 172 yards on 26 carries last week, which is good news for a Falcons’ run game that has struggled with their oft-injured offensive line to get consistent production. They did gain 111 yards on 18 carries last week, though they were playing from behind from the get-go so the Rams were mostly defending the pass. Once again it was Norwood having a much better ypc average than Dunn last week, but Petrino has been pretty stubborn in giving the bulk of the carries to Dunn, so who knows what the split will be this week.
With as poor of a pass defense as the Saints have, it’s been hard for them to keep opponents from covering unless they’ve had a really big lead. They’ve held on with the big lead versus the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars and Panthers this year, while beating the Falcons at home by 6 previously. The Falcons are in a little better shape than they were for that game, while the Saints are a little worse off. Throw in home field advantage and I see the Falcons getting the cover while challenging for the upset.
Final Score Prediction: Saints 21 – Falcons 20
Legend
Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value
Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value
Rams/+9.5/+8/Rams 2.8% value
Bengals/45/43.5/Under 2.9% value
Bulger got a case of the woozies on Thursday after being cleared to play on Tuesday and now it looks like he’ll definitely be out Sunday. That means a steady diet of Stephen Jackson running the ball to set up the passing game. Ghiaciuc, the Bengals’ starting center, left last game with an injury and is still “?”. Willie Anderson, their Pro
Bowl tackle, has missed the last 6 games and though listed as “?” is probably doubtful as he’s been listed as “?” before the last few games. Throw in a moderately cold, wet day and the scoring might not come in buckets like they often do in Bengal games. The Bengals struggled mightily on offense in their last game on the sloppy Heinz Field, but will find enough of the recent offensive success they’d regained since the return of Chris Henry and Rudi Johnson to win handily at home.
Final Score Prediciton: Rams 19 – Bengals 26
Chargers/0/-1.5/Chargers 4.1% value
Titans/39.5/41/Over 4.1% value
The Titans ended a three game skid last week at home versus the deteriorating Texans, but that’s not enough to convince me that they’ve overcome the poor play that plagued them during said losing streak. Yes, Haynesworth’s absence at DT was a big part of the reason they struggled on defense, but he’s still not 100% and is missing practices, and had nothing to do with the Titans only scoring 6 points versus a crummy Bengal defense 2 weeks ago. Facing a team that is balanced both offensively and defensively this week, the Titans will take a step back again as their average run-game and and inferior pass-game will once again come up short.
The Chargers got out of the gate slow this year under Norv Turner’s first turn at the coaching helm, but have since righted the ship and carry a lot of momentum into this game. Momentum aside, the Chargers have enough of a statistical edge to win this road game.
Final Score Prediction: Chargers 21 – Titans 20
Cowboys/-10.5/-12/Cowboys 3.4% value
Lions/50.5/49.5/Under 2.4% value
Kitna has got himself in a caboodle over the comments he made last year after the Lions upset the Cowboys. As the Lions figure to be playing from behind for most of this game, the oft-sacked Kitna will be pulverized by the Cowboy’s speedy pass-rushing linebackers Ware and Ellis in predictable passing situations. The Lions’ top WR, Roy Williams, is done for the year. There really is no ray of light for the Lions this week. The only thing they’ll have going for them after this game is that it’ll be just a car ride home from the game instead of an airplane ride. The fans will probably beat them out of the stadium by at least one quarter, though.
The Cowboys have such good offensive balance and scheming under Jason Garrett’s coordinating, the Lions will be at the mercy of the opponents dropped into their den, though I don’t think there is anyone on the Cowboys’ roster named Daniel, is there? At some point in the second half the Cowboys may favor the running game versus a tired Lions’ defense and their scoring will slow down enough to go Under the number.
Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 31 – Lions 19
Bucs/-3/-6/Bucs 7.5% value
Texans/40.5/40/Under 0.9% value
This line opened at Bucs -1.5. Say what to who? Man, I hate lines that are not released with the pack on Sunday night, because unless your ass is cemented to your computer chair you stand a good chance of missing a favorable opening line such as this one. No worries, the Bucs will still cover the -3 and pummel a Texans’ squad that is losing more players on their side than the Republicans in public office. A few fresh injuries did show up on the Bucs’ roster today (Hilliard WR, Pittman RB, and Nece LB), but they’re all “?” at worst and stand a good chance of playing. The Texans’ lost starting RG Fred Weary to a broken leg (along with their backup center), Ahman Green was put on the IR, and Ron Dayne will be playing at less than 100%. Matt Schaub is out at QB, though Sage is a fair backup.
I see the game progressing like this: The Bucs, with their balanced offense, lead most of the way as they’ll score versus a poor Texans’ defense. The Texans, with a horrible run-game to begin with, will have to play catch-up in the second half, which will lead to sacks and turnovers versus one of the best pass-defenses in the league, ensuring the victory for the visiting Bucs.
Final Score Prediction: Bucs 23 – Texans 17
Raiders/+10.5/+11.5/Packers 3.0% value
Packers/40/41.5/Over 3.2% value
It’ll be colder than a well-digger’s ass in Lambeau on Sunday, advantage Favre. Winds look mild, so as long as his receivers keep their hands warm the Packers should still have good success in the passing game in spite of that being the stronger part of the Raiders’ defense. The Packers will run enough to keep the Raiders honest though, and to see how many holes they can find in the Raiders’ suspect run-defense. The Raiders would love to stick with the run as long as they can in this game, as they’ve been pretty successful with it since giving the starting job to Fargas instead of the lumbering Jordan. The Packers have a better than average run defense, though, so long drives turned into points will be hard for the Raiders to come by. With temperatures below 20 degrees, Janikowski might not be sent out there to kick 55-yarders like he’s accustomed to doing. The Raiders will probably need to get to the 30 yard line to put him in range.
McCown had a pretty good game at QB versus the Broncos last week. He’s capable of big plays and throws, but still inconsistent with the limited amount of NFL experience he has. The Raiders have some momentum coming into this game, so it’ll be interesting to see how long they can sustain that momentum on the frozen tundra. Like any team better at running than passing and facing a superior team (like the Ravens versus the Patriots last week), staying close to the Packers will be crucial to the Raiders because they’ll struggle if they have to rely on the pass. I think it will come down to that in the second half, however, and the Raiders will then make enough mistakes and be unable to score late, giving the Packers the home cover (if Favre is indeed mostly healthy and playing).
Final Score Prediction: Raiders 14 – Packers 28
Panthers/+10.5/+6.5/Panthers 10.2% value
Jaguars/38.5/40.5/Over 5.7% value
Their run defense is almost as good as the Jaguars’ (better in yards per carry allowed, but they’ve faced softer running teams), and their pass defense is clearly better than the Jaguars’. The Panthers have really been out of favor because of the losing streak they hit once all of their quarterbacks were injured simultaneously. With Testaverde making his second consecutive start the offense has had solid practice for two + weeks. The Panthers have also been a fairly healthy squad. They lost Del Homme and LB Dan Morgan earlier in the year, but since then they’ve had no key injuries. Other than their right guard, they’ve started the other four offensive lineman all 12 games this season, and have averaged over 4 yards per carry with a couple of average running backs. Statistically speaking, the Jaguars are not going to shut down the Panther running game, so Vinnie shouldn’t get creamed in this game.
The Jaguars have suffered many more injuries than the Panthers, most notably the loss of their starting MLB Mike Peterson with a broken hand. They do get Marcus Stroud back on their defensive line as his four game suspension is up. The Jaguars have had a good balanced offense this year behind the surprisingly efficient play of QB Garrard. Versus a good Carolina defense, they’ll have to execute pretty well to convert their yards into touchdowns. The Jaguars are always capable of dominating an opponent at home, but I think the Panthers are tough enough defensively to prevent the Jaguars from running away with this game.
Final Score Prediction: Panthers 17 – Jaguars 23
Giants/+3/+9/Eagles 14.7% value
Eagles/42/42.5/Over 1.1% value
Will it be McNabb or Feeley in this game? Hmm, would I rather have McNabb getting sacked or Feeley throwing interceptions in this game? Considering what happened the last time these two teams played, McNabb getting sacked a million times, I think I’d rather have Feeley in there and take my chances with the picks. Derrick Ward was having a good game at RB for the Giants versus the Bears last week until he went down with a broken leg. Brandon Jacobs looks to be back for the Giants this week, but he’s probably not 100% and was limited in practice this week, so we may not know until seeing him in how healthy he is. Ward may have been a better match-up versus the Eagle defense. Ward busted off some big runs by running outside of the tackles last week, which is where the Eagles were vulnerable to the run last week versus the Seahawks. Last week the Bears were soooo close to some big plays on screen passes to their RB Peterson trying to burn the aggressive Giants’ defense. Peterson was ankle tackled on a couple of plays that would’ve gone for big yards if he’d kept his feet. I expect the Eagles to dump the ball off to Westbrook quite a bit this week, he’s one of the best in the league catching the ball out of the backfield. Eli was able to lead a couple of late scoring drives last week for a change. He’ll have a harder time making up a deficit this week versus a better Eagles’ defense who get Mikell back at safety after he missed last week. Dawkins is “?”, but Lito Sheppard will be in there after being “?” during the week. Fading the Giants and playing the Ealges are two trends that continue this week. The Giants have too many injuries to their secondary and linebacking corps to shut down the Eagles’ offense for a second straight time. Plus, they’re running backs continue to have the injuries and Plaxico Burress has become less effective as the season has worn on with his ankle and knee problems. He didn’t practice at all again this week.
Final Score Prediction: Giants 17 – Eagles 26
Dolphins/+7/+12/Bills 14.8% value
Bills/34.5/36.5/Over 6.4% value
The Dolphins haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in 13 quarters, I believe. I think they’ll get a maximum of one in this game. With a struggling rookie at QB, an injured Chatman at running back, and their number one receiving option injured as well (Booker), it’s hard to imagine the Dolphin offense executing well enough in the frozen and snowy weather to score many points. It’ll be up to their defense to try and get some turnovers and good field position, but the Bills have been pretty good at taking care of the ball with a +3 turnover ratio. The Dolphins’ turnover ratio is -7. Trent Edwards had a pretty good game back as the Bills’ quarterback, and will certainly be no worse than the Dolphins’ Beck in this rookie battle. RB Lynch is still listed as “?” but coach Jauron is encouraged by his progress in practice and says it is likely he will play.
The Bills, with their great special teams play, will be set up with good field position many times in this game. I think they’ll get a key turnover or return that comfortably allows them to cover versus a winless, heartless (poor effort by the Dolphins at home last week) unaccustomed to the cold team who I think will pack it in the second half if they’re behind by a couple of scores, which is entirely possible. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bills lay a drubbing the Dolphins like the Jets did last week.
Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 13 – Bills 24
Vikings/-8.5/-10/Vikings 4.5% value
49ers/39/37/Under 4.5% value
This game is clearly a bad match-up for the 49er offense as they like to establish the run with Gore to set up the pass. Gore is predominantly an inside the tackles runner so he’ll be running into the brick wall that is the inside of the Vikings’ defensive line many times in this game, leaving the 49ers in many long down and distance situations. The oft-maligned Vikings’ pass defense has shown signs of improvement as witnessed by their holding the Lions to 10 points last week. They’re able to get to the quarterback enough and make enough plays in the secondary to have decent success on the obvious passing downs versus all but the best passing teams. The 49ers are still a poor passing team that gave up 6 sacks to Panthers last week and is giving up an average of 3.6 per game. Dilfer is mistake prone when under pressure, more so than Alex Smith as he lacks mobility to find a passing lane, so I expect the Vikings to get a couple of picks in this game if Dilfer decides not to take the sack, lol. Arnaz Battle, the 49ers’ leading receiver is injured and “?” this week as well. The Vikings will be missing DE Ray Edwards due to a 4 game steroid suspension, and one of his backups, Erasmus James, has just been placed on the IR. That leaves B. Robison to play the right side of the line, and he’s a better pass rusher than run stuffer, so the 49ers may favor running to that side. The Vikings do have an excellent linebacker in C. Greenway on that side, so expect him to be active at the line of scrimmage tomorrow to fill some holes on the right side.
The 49er defense is in bad shape as well, though the silver lining is that the majority of their injuries are in the secondary. Still, the Vikings passing game has been pretty efficient of late as teams have to respect the run and play-action so heavily. This has set up some big passing plays, so the second-stringers the 49ers will be forced to play at some positions in the secondary may be especially vulenerable. The 49ers have a decent run defense, but they’ll be overmatched by the Vikings’ run offense. The manner in which the Vikings have beached, pillaged and slaughtered their last two opponents will likely continue this week as well. The 49ers best chance is to hope that the Vikings run their ship into the Bay Bridge and are detained until they forfeit.
Final Score Prediction: Vikings 24 – 49ers 13
Cardinals/+7/+3.5/Cardinals 8.0% value
Seahawks/44/43.5/Under 0.9% value
The big question in this one is whether either of the Cardinals’ two main receivers, Fitzgerald and Boldin, will end up playing in this game. The Cards have some okay receivers behind them and an experienced QB in Warner, so their absence may not be as much of a crushing blow as some might think. If they can get one of these guys suited up and playing at near 100% there may not be much of a drop off in their offensive output. The Cardinals, in spite of their defensive injuries, held the Browns’ Derek Anderson to only around 50% pass completions last week. It’ll be a tougher challenge for them this week on the road versus a Seahawks’ offense with a better QB and more depth at wide receiver.
Right now it’s looking like weather won’t be a factor in this game. No wind and just a 30% chance of precipitation.
I’m showing some line value on the Cardinals right now (with their 2 receivers as “?”), but I’d probably want to hear that at least one of them was starting before kick off before making a wager on them.
Final Score Prediction: Cardinals 20 – Seahawks 24
Steelers/+10.5/+7/Steelers 7.0% value
Patriots/47/52/Over 10.2% value
The Patriots don’t look super-human anymore after two close wins in a row. Enter the Steelers, a team that appears to match-up very well against them. The Patriots win with the passing game, but the Steelers have the number one pass defense in the league. The Patriots were beat up on the line of scrimmage last week, and the Steelers have a good running game with Willie Parker and Najeh Davenmport returning after missing a game. The sharps pounded the Steeelers when this line was released, and anything over 10 still has good value. The Eagles were successful passing the ball down the middle of the field against the Patriots – Big Ben and the Steelers like to throw the ball down the middle of the field. He’s so tall he has better field vision over the line of scrimmage when compared to other QBs, lol. The Steelers should have give offensive success in this game if Big Ben continues to play at his normal level of ability.
The Patriots will be playing another game in which they won’t be able to score at will like they’d done earlier in the year. Honestly, a lot of the games in which they cruised to huge victories came against a line-up of clearly inferior opponents. Playing a third straight game against a physical team with a good defense means they’ll probably struggle to win just like they did in their previous two.
The weather, while near freezing, will be clear and not windy. I think both teams will have enough offensive success to put this one over the number that has dropped from its’ opener of 52 down to 47. I bet the Under 52 for a ½ unit when it first came out, and just added the Over 47 for 1 unit.
Final Score Prediction: Steelers 23 – Patriots 30
Browns/-3.5/0/Jets 7.0% value
Jets/47.5/45.5/Under 4.6% value
Barring the Thanksgiving thrashing the Jets took in Dallas, they’ve played pretty good ball lately in creaming the Dolphins last week and beating the Steelers in week 11. They had a season high 163 rushing yards last week versus the Dolphins who have a better run defense than the Browns do. As a result I expect the Jets to pound the rock at the Browns which will take a lot of the pressure off of Kellen Clemens at QB. With time he’s capable of making some good throws. Giving time to the opposing QBs is something the Browns excel at. Hopefully L. Coles will end up playing WR for the Jets tomorrow, as he’s their number one receiving target. The Jets will already be without J. Cotchery, their other starting WR, which leaves only B. Smith (decent) and J. McCareins (not so good) at WR. The Jets have 5 tight ends on their depth chart, with most of them missing time due to injuries this season. Baker, their number one option at TE will play in spite of a back injury he’s had for the latter half of the season. Their center, Mangold, is listed as “?” right now with a calf injury, but there hasn’t been any real news about him so I’d lean toward him playing. As long as the Jets can line up enough players in the skill positions to keep the Browns’ defense honest they should score enough points in this game to compete for the home victory.
The Jets’ run defense has toughed up since their week 10 bye, allowed 3.52 yards per carry per game versus the 4.31 they’d given up before that. Hopefully they’ll continue to defend the run well as the Browns with Jamal Lewis have run the ball pretty well against the average and poor run defenses they’ve played this year. The Browns do have a pretty big advantage in the pass game, though. If you take away the two games they played against the Steelers’ number one pass defense (and one of those games was the season opener that Charlie Frye started) the Browns are averaging almost 8 yards per pass attempt, which is pretty astounding. The Jets give up 6.8, so this game will come down to weather the Jets can continue to have the success they’ve had defending the pass in their last 3 games (4.59 yppaa) or not. The weather doesn’t look like it will be issue, so I’m going to trust that the Jets will be able to do enough offensively to cover the spread in this one.
Final Score Prediction: Browns 24 – Jets 23
Chiefs/+7/+9.5/Broncos 6.5% value
Broncos/37.5/38/Over 1.0% value
The Chiefs’ offensive line, which has played poorly this year, will be without Turley, Niswanger and starting tackle McIntosh for this game. The patchwork nature of their offensive line will make it hard for them to exploit a soft Bronco defensive line that has been vulnerable to the run this year. Even with decent blocking, who’s to say that rookie Kolby Smith will make enough good decisions at the line of scrimmage to pick up consistent yards anyway. He did have a good game versus the poor Raiders’ run defense, but then the Chiefs averaged just 3.52 ypc last week versus the Chargers. As the Chiefs figure to be playing from behind like they did last week, expect Croyle to be sacked or forced into bad throws numerous times. Chiefs quarterbacks were sacked a whopping 8 times last week, and they were tied at halftime. The Broncos have some good speed rushers that have been successful in games where the Broncos were leading – that’s the key. When the Broncos have been forced to defend the run they’ve gotten to the quarterback very well. As the Broncos will have every one of their skill players back in the lineup, I expect them to be playing with a decent lead throughout this entire game. While the weather will be very cold, it will be clear and not windy, so their superior passing game will give them a balanced offensive attack. The Broncos have had good success passing the ball when leading as well. Cutler has been able to run some good play-action bootlegs which have opened the field up for him to find any of his numerous good wide receivers and tight ends down the field. The Chiefs are often guilty of over-pursuing plays at the line of scrimmage, so the Broncos should be able to exploit this tendency with some cut back runs and the bootlegs.
I thought the Broncos would win handily versus the Raiders last week, but turnovers and the Raiders’ resurgent run-game with Fargas as the starter put the Broncos in unfavorable match-ups for a lot of that game. Like I said, the Broncos are a very good team when playing with the lead. The last time these teams played the Broncos did get the early lead and cruised to an easy victory in Kansas City. At home, I expect them to do it again.
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 14 – Broncos 24
Colts/- 9/-6/Ravens 6.9% value
Ravens/41.5/42.5/Over 2.5% value
The Ravens’ defense finally had most of its’ missing secondary players back last week, and they did a pretty good job against the Patriots. The zone blitzes got to Brady a few times and the physical handling of the wide receivers at the line of scrimmage disrupted the passing plays pretty well when penalties were not called on them, lol. Reed, McCallister and Rolle didn’t practice much this week, but hopefully they’re just resting and recuperating to be fresh for another physical battle this week. I expect most of those guys to be in there. Yes it was an extremely frustrating loss for them last week, but the Ravens will be up for a game against the Colts regardless of what happened to them the week or even the month before the game. They know they’re playing better on offense and defense right now then they had earlier in the year and are hungry to prove it to the world with a win against the Colts. The Ravens, of course, will look to get McGahee going on the ground to set up their passing game.
The Colts will do what the Colts do – run the no huddle to try and limit the opponent’s defensive substitutions while Peyton Manning spreads the ball around to his receivers, tight ends and running backs, all of whom are good pass-catchers. The temperature will be just above freezing, but the wind will be low and there will be minor precipitation. Most of the Colts running plays will be used to counter the Ravens’ zone blitzes, I suspect, so they may bust off a few good runs that way. I don’t expect them to line up and run right at the Ravens on first downs too often.
The Colts’ have been pretty average defending the run, so I expect the Ravens to have enough success running the ball against a small and somewhat injured Colts’ defensive line on a cold day to set up Boller for enough passes to keep this game within the number.
Final Score Prediction: Colts 24 – Ravens 19
Saints/-3.5/-0.5/Falcons 7.1% value
Falcons/42.5/39.5/Under 7.5% value
The Saints are down to a mostly healthy Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker at running back coming into this game. No big deal, really, as their running game has been pathetic anyway and they’ll just look to throw the ball mostly in a road game played in a pass-friendly dome. Still, the lack of balance may allow the Falcons to get enough sacks and make enough plays in the secondary to hold the Saints to their 22 point season average. The Falcons have averaged a horrible 14.3 points this year, as they’ve had numerous injuries to their offensive line and quarterbacks. It’s hard to get anything going when your offensive line is constantly being reshuffled while lining up a different QB every few games. The Falcons will go with Redman this week after he came in and game them a spark in the second half versus the Rams last week. He came up one drive short of leading them to a come from behind victory after being down 21-0 at the half. Against a crummy Saints’ pass defense, I think that momemtum will carry forward and the Falcons will score closer to what the Saints allow , 23, than the 14 the Falcons have averaged.
The Saints have had a pretty good run defense this year, but the Bucs gashed them for 172 yards on 26 carries last week, which is good news for a Falcons’ run game that has struggled with their oft-injured offensive line to get consistent production. They did gain 111 yards on 18 carries last week, though they were playing from behind from the get-go so the Rams were mostly defending the pass. Once again it was Norwood having a much better ypc average than Dunn last week, but Petrino has been pretty stubborn in giving the bulk of the carries to Dunn, so who knows what the split will be this week.
With as poor of a pass defense as the Saints have, it’s been hard for them to keep opponents from covering unless they’ve had a really big lead. They’ve held on with the big lead versus the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars and Panthers this year, while beating the Falcons at home by 6 previously. The Falcons are in a little better shape than they were for that game, while the Saints are a little worse off. Throw in home field advantage and I see the Falcons getting the cover while challenging for the upset.
Final Score Prediction: Saints 21 – Falcons 20
