2011 NFL Week 07 Results

Continued frustration in Sports Cruncher Nation as we were unable to turn a profit for the 3rd straight week, being just barely down at -.38 of a unit. The play of the week on the SD/NYJ Under 45 should have been a sure winner, but couldn't overcome the fumble return touchdown the Chargers scored less than 2 minutes into the game. The Chargers ended up with less than 300 yards of offense, the Jets less than 400, so yeah, this game should have stayed well Under. I will admit to a couple of awful picks on the week, on TEN and the SEA/CLE Over. Man, how wrong were those ones, lol. Live, and hopefully learn, I certainly put notes into my handicapping tips file. 2nd half bets bailed us out for the 2nd time in 3 weeks, as we hit really well there. Funny, as last week they started 0 for 6 before hitting a 1/2 unit winner on the final game. A common thread continued this week, and it's been a royal pain in the ass in it's pursuit of us -- turnovers in a team's own territory when we have both that team and the Under involved in plays. The first 4 turnovers that went against us on Sunday were all turned into touchdowns against. Totals were slightly down this week, with the 1.5 unit top play being the big difference. Overall totals capping has remained strong, but picks on sides have just been a mix of poor luck and poor plays. It's been enough to make me make some alterations to my normal handicapping on sides, but that is not a bad thing, it's always good to try and improve.

2011 NFL Week 6 Results

In week 5 2nd half plays saved our bacon -- in week 6 they cooked our goose. Down a few units on the week as most plays with a close result went against us. The only game we caught a break in late was with CIN getting that defensive touchdown, but it was on the heels of them missing a 43 yard FG earlier in the quarter that would have had us covering. Totals went 5-3, with the CHI Under losing courtesy of a Devin Hester return td, and the CAR Over losing by 3 after Cam Newton turned the ball over in the red zone near the end of the 1st half, and failing to get points in the red zone (with almost no time left) at the end of the game. DAL got too conservative and lost outright after leading late in the 4th, killing the ML play. The no-breaks game of the week, though, was the SF/DET game, where DET missed a 52 yard field goal before half, just to see SF quickly gain a few yards and make a 55 yard field goal, for a 6 point swing. And then SF scores on 4th down by just inches after the refs donated about 11 yards to the 49ers on the drive. We're back to hovering just above even for the season as Lady Luck is a cold-hearted bitch who has just not been favoring us much this season. If luck balances out steady wins will come our way! Oh, and I continue to beat the market on line moves over, and over, and over, and over...

2011 NCAA Footbal Week 7 Results

Totals crushed for a second straight week, but sides were very inconsistent and 1st half plays didn't get it done.

2011 NCAA Week 06 Results

I outfoxed myself with the first half play on Miami (OH) and the 2nd half play on Army, losing both on a game that I favored Miami to win, as they did. Army had outscored every opponent in their first five games, they picked a fine time to score a touchdown in the first couple minutes of the second half and then score no more. Dumb 3 units lost there. The top top sides went 0-2 after Texas Tech's improbable backdoor cover, but I killed on pretty much everything else, going 8-1 on game totals and 2-0 on first half totals along the way. +7 units overall while saving a ton of points on line moves. A promising week at this juncture with more game data to process.

2011 NFL Week 05 Results

The addition of several late plays ultimately led to the week being a small loser. I really didn't like the 3 team total plays I added much, which is why they were all 1/2 unit plays. They were mostly made because two of them came with no juice and were on the right side of key numbers. The late teaser went down in flames as the Giants blew it against Seattle. Several of the marginal value Overs didn't get there either -- it looks as if the early weeks of mega-scoring are over as defenses are getting up to speed. The round robin of teasers went 1-2 as ARI, the weakest pick of the 3, lost as MIN scored a lot of cheap points early. And as for the Titans? Wow, they really laid an egg in that game. Damage was kept to a minimum for the week because of 2nd half plays, which went 8-2, picking up 4 units.

2011 NFL Week 04 Results

We got off to a great start on the morning games, up over 6 units, but then things cooled off from there on out and we finished up the week at about the same mark, up a little over 6 units. We swept our strong round robin of 3 teasers, which was nice. As as good breaks for us, I can only really think of Denver scoring in the 4th quarter on 4th and 7 to break a push on their Team Total and make the 2nd half Over play a winner. 2nd half bad luck seemed more abundant: we went 5-2 on Team Total plays, with the two losses coming because BUF couldn't score 7 2nd half points, and NYJ couldn't score 3 2nd half points (in FG range and Sanchez throws the pick six). That was too bad, as we were crushing Team Total plays, cashing the Over on TEN and CAR before halftime, pushing DEN at halftime, and we had St. Louis at Under 21 with zero points at halftime. Jason Campbell's interception at the NE 5, an OAK penalty at the one leading to another non TD scoring drive, and NE's goal line failure to score late in the 4th all conspired to lose the Over in that game for us, which still had a chance to push if OAK converts the last minute 2-point conversion, which they didn't. We lost another 2nd half play when CAR scored in the last 5 seconds, and would've pushed a larger 2nd half play if they made the subsequent 2-point conversion, which they didn't. It was fun to see SF upset PHI, but that score with 3+ minutes left cost us the Under. The Monday Night game was definitely our luckiest game of the week, as IND's 2 big passing plays for TDs helped the +10 bet on them never be in jeopardy, but wasn't helping the Under 42, which did ultimately win by 1 point as the result of 3 missed field goals in the game. We benefited from some missed PHI field goals as well, so this was definitely the first week where missed field goals helped us instead of hurting us. A solid week that was almost a great double digit winning week, but it puts us up 9.8 units including the preseason, and up Over 6 units for the regular season. Oh, it's also worth mentioning that we crushed the market on line moves, ending up 14.5 points ahead. In the only real head-scratching line move this past week, CAR/CHI going down when I loved the Over, I beat the market badly on that one, as the Over cashed against the closing number by halftime. Solid, baby.