2011 NFL Week 03 Results

Only down about 1/2 a unit for the week in NFL, but a very frustrating week nonetheless, as I hit for better than 50% against all sides, but on the games I actually bet went 2-6. And I'm kicking myself because I got gun-shy on some of the big dogs after the week #2 dog fiasco. My spreadsheet liked both KC and BUF, but I passed on both. Early on it looked like a good decision, as BUF and KC were down 21-0 and 10-0 respectively, but then of course BUF came roaring back to win and KC only lost by 3. Instead, I pressed slim value on some favorites that I might not normally bet, going 1-2 on those added plays. These early weeks are when I feel less confident in my lines, but it's been random bad luck that even though I'm 51% on the sides for every game on the year, I'm down 10 units on the actual side bets I've made, leaving us just barely in the positive for the regular season. Sides have always been my toughest bet to show a good profit for -- indeed, I've had a solid winning season before when I didn't make a dime on sides overall. Oh well, I've started off the first month of the NFL in the hole more than once and ended up with good winning seasons every time but once -- that's the life of a statistics based handicapper.

2011 NFL Week 02 Results

Cue the lowlights reel, and get your popcorn. But first, let's start with the good. We saved 6 points on market moves, the only game that ended up really going against our midweek position was MIN, as that line went from around -3 EV to -1 or even pick right before kickoff. Suckers, I thought, as MIN romped to a 17-0 halftime lead. And then it was deja vu for MIN in the second half, sucking hopelessly and ultimately losing by 3. Other painful ways to lose: SD driving, down by 6 in the 4th quarter, and then a turnover, which SD ended up with 4 of, to 0 for NE. And still we would've pushed if SD doesn't get stuffed on the goal line before half. SF with a 10 point 4th quarter lead, and then coming within a yard of not even pushing as a +3 dog. MIA turning it over inside their own 10, giving a touchdown that ended up being the difference in a push on the spread. And MIA's Carpenter missing 2 medium to short FGs. KC losing RB Charles in the first quarter -- though it probably wouldn't have made a difference. CHI hanging in there with NO until their starting right tackle goes down early in the 3rd, while NO went on to get their six sacks of the day after that. GB with the ball with under 3 minutes to play, and all I need is for them to pick up a first down, maybe two, and run out the clock, but no, they throw a 70+ yard touchdown to kill both the Under and CAR, who had been covering all day. Our only luck on the day was CAR using the final 2 minutes to come back and cover one of the top plays of the week. The Jaguars -- well, they did have a truckload of turnovers, but hard to say it would've mattered the way they were dominated. The other top play of the day, TEN, was an upset winner, as I predicted. And then on to Monday Night, where a ball tipped 2 times and hauled in for a touchdown with 20+ seconds left in the first half ends up being the difference between pushing and winning.

Week 1 and Week 2 are a bigger gamble than usual, as it can be hard to strike the right balance between last year's stats and the way teams are looking this year. In all honestly I leaned stronger to last year's performances, and it ended up hurting me a little bit -- but it's a tough call, as for the most part the market was backing me up or at least neutral on my picks.

So up, yes, still up for the regular season, but it's less than a unit. Hey, it stinks to give back a nice chunk of change made on week #1, but showing any kind of profit through the first 3 weeks of the season is a bonus, as far as I'm concerned, as it's from week #4 on where I'm using exclusively this year's statistics.

I'll also be making some changes to my line-making formulas in an effort to get them sharper, as always.

2011 NFL Week 01 Results

On our way to a monster day on Sunday until late punt returns for touchdowns in SF and ARI made it just a really good day, up almost 8 bets. I stepped in front of a Patriots' freight train Monday Night, unfortunately. The Patriots like the no-huddle. A lot. Lesson learned. Recovered the total bet with the Over cashing in the OAK/DEN game.

Speaking of Overs, holy smokes, 12-3-1 on opening week, traditionally a lower scoring week? Scoring was oozing out from everywhere. That I went 5-0 on my Over plays is impressive, I guess, but more impressive given that only 3 games went Under is that on the 5 games I ended up betting Under I went 2-2-1, getting the push on the PHI/STL game at Under 44. I actually had a small unposted winner on the only Under I didn't officially release as a play, in the TEN/JAX game. Yes, definitely more proud of my deft maneuvering on the Unders in such a high-scoring week.

+6.05 Units for the week, always nice to start the regular season in the black.

NCAAF Week #1: 3-0

I capped a few NCAA games this past week and NAILED IT, lol. They were originally sent out to all clients at the site I now call home, http://www.powerhousepicks.com, as well as posted in the free picks section of the forum there. If you register at the forum there you can see the picks and write-ups, along with future free picks, of course.

+3.4 Units Preseason 2011 NFL final record

I'd personally like to bid farewell to the randomness of preseason ball and welcome in the regular season.

Preseason Week #4 Results NFL 2011

The final scores in many of these games paint an ugly picture of this week's picks. The Boschian landscape came courtesy of a bad turnover ratio, though. Of the 9 games in which I did write-ups or analysis, we had a combined turnover ratio of -10, which is awful luck for that many games. Only one of the analyzed teams were out-gained by their opponent (JAX -- NE was also, but that was just a thrown in Wong teaser that I didn't handicap). ATL had almost twice as many offensive yards as BAL. DAL outgained MIA by 101 yards (missed 2 50 yard fgs, lost by 14), NO actually outgained TEN by 43 yards, and SD outgained SF by 50. The CLE/CHI Under, which lost by a point -- that game saw only a combined 479 yards of offense, so the yards per point ratio was way below normal in that game. I'm not going to harp on misfortune every time it happens, but extreme cases like this week one are worth taking a closer look at, lol.