Patriots @ Colts
Some may attribute the Patriots’ impressive 5-2 post-Brady record to coach Belichick’s brilliance and gutsy play from the rest of the entire “I am not Tom Brady” roster. Certainly they are still solid in the trenches and at wide receiver. But are they as good as their 5-2 record would indicate?
Last week I predicted that the game in Foxboro versus the lowly but “now with a pulse” Rams would be played to a standstill. Indeed, the game was back and forth and tied until the Patriots’ scored the winning touchdown with 3 minutes left in the game. Unfortunately for the Rams, the only bruising their bestial running back, Steven Jackson, would be dealing with that day would be with the large one on his thigh, as he ended up sitting out as a game time decision. Still, the Rams were right there in the thick of it, and actually just outgained and out-yards-per-played the Pats by a very small margin.
After just scraping by versus the 3rd worst defense in the league at home, what can we expect out of the Patriots this week at Indy? The Colts bring a league average defense to the game, for starters, and the 10th stingiest pass defense (23rd versus the run). The Patriots have played a very soft schedule of pass defenses so far, the 3rd easiest by my rankings. The top pass defense they’ve faced was the 49ers, ranked 16th, right on the league average of 6.3 yards per pass play allowed (by my rescored stats). In spite of playing against 3 better than average run defenses this year; the 49ers’, Dolphins’ and Jets’, the Patriots have still faced the 1st or 2nd weakest schedule of rush defenses of anyone in the league by virtue of also playing against the Chiefs, Broncos and Rams. In spite of the incredibly soft defensive schedule, the Patriots have not excelled versus an opposing defense’s allowed averages against anyone this year, the lone exception being the huge running week they had versus the Broncos’ battered and bewildered defense. In that game, they still threw for an average per pass far below what the Broncos normally allow. As a matter of fact, the Patriots have failed to gain more yards per pass play than an opponent typically allows even once this year. Assuming then, that they have an average at best (for them) day offensively, can the defense help them out enough to cover or win in Indy?
Umm, no. I have the Patriots ranked 19th versus the run, and 24th versus the pass. Hey, that’s not even as good as the Colts’ defense. Any reason to be bullish on the Patriots’ pass defense regardless of their 24th ranking? Umm, double no. This will be their second game without SS Rodney Harrison (IR). Ellis Hobbs, their best cornerback, was injured last game and is expected to miss this week. The other starting CB, Deltha O’Neal, was also injured last week and is “?” for this week. So who is going to step up and fill at least one of those pairs of cornerbacks’ shoes versus Peyton Manning this week? Not CB Lewis Sanders, who missed last game and is doubtful for this one as well. I guess it’s up to Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite. Good luck, rookies!
And how has the Colts’ passing game fared as of late? Rather well, minus the odd interception that the opponent’s seem capable of holding onto, while the Colts themselves cannot. The Colts have faced 3 top 10 defenses in their last 3 games and fared better than those 3 teams (Ravens, Packers, Titans) normally allow in every one. They were average, by the Colts’ standards, early in the year as they dealt with injuries along the offensive line and at TE, not to mention Peyton having to use the first 4 games to substitute for the preseason he missed due to surgery recovery. As they’ve gotten healthier, so has their passing game. By all accounts, they should have beaten the Titans last Monday, as they outgained them in yards and yards per play, but suffered a loss due to the aforementioned inability to hang onto interceptions that may have been pick 6s on two occasions, while the Titans intercepted two, and the 4th and 1 failure at the 50.
So we have an ascending pass offense in the Colts facing a poor and worsened by injury pass defense of the Patriots. Did I mention that Joseph Addai was announced as probable today (Wednesday)? Once the Patriots undoubtedly fall behind on the scoreboard, will their 29th ranked pass offense find enough success versus the 10th ranked pass defense to come back and cover the spread? Not likely. Will the Colts, at home, have revenge on their minds after last year’s home loss? Rhetorical question. The Colts desperately need this game, and will pile it on big time. Even the meek Tony Dungy may engage in a little bit of Belichick run it up belligerence.
Did I mention that Bob Sanders and Kelvin Hayden will be back in the Colts’ secondary? Did I mention…did I mention…
Final Score Prediction: Patriots 14 – Colts 31
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Quality Control Tables
I've just finished making a big table that helps identify the accuracy of my lines based on the total yards and yards per play for each team in it's respective game. It's a simple way to get a ballpark idea of whether my projections would have or would not have covered when compared to statistical averages. The stat estimated final scores are based on league averages of total yards divided by points and yards per play divided by average number of points scored. Like I said, it's not an exact science, but it gives a good general view if you really should or should not have covered on some of the plays. For example, the PHI/ATL and JAC/CLE Overs should have both readily covered where in actuality they didn't. I had a higher cover % on Stat estimated totals than the actual results bore out, but ended up with the same poor 38% on sides. My favorites predicted to cover the spread were pretty awful this week, and it can't all be attributed to turnovers, though 5 of the 7 Stat estimated favorite losers also had a negative turnover differential in their games. Kind of a strong indicator there that favorites, especially large ones, will have a very hard time covering spreads with a negative turnover ratio in their games.
My lines use red zone offense/defense amongst many other things not used in the quickie stat estimated scores I've created here. There are several nuances within each game, including the order in which the points were scored for each team, that lessen the accuracy of these simple total yards and yards per play final score estimations -- but as I said, they're just ballpark estimators. One thing that looks certain is that it appears difficult for teams to cover large spreads on total yards and yards per play alone. The only favorite that did so last week was the Redskins (which, coincidentally, was one of my strongest side values).
I also just added 4 columns on the right end of the table. They represent the point differentials between the stat estimated final scores, my estimated final scores, and the actual final scores based on the fave/dog, O/U opinion I had on each game. You can see that grading my opinions on totals versus the stat estimated lines left me 17 points to the good, whereas grading my opinions versus the actual final scores leaves me almost 8 total points to the bad. Conclusion? Poor luck on totals over all. Looking at the sides, I was -15 points to the bad on stat estimated final scores versus my final score estimations, but a whopping -83 points to the bad on my opinions versus the final scores. Lots of bad luck involved on many of the sides (the correlation to turnover ratio in each game rears it's ugly head), which has caused me to drop from 1st place on the error measurements at thepredictiontracker.com to much further down in the pack over the last 2 weeks. The correlation between turnovers and the difference between my lines and the final scores was a very high .77 in this table -- lots of turnovers against equalled big negative points on my lines versus the final scores.
In the turnover columns, there is one discrepancy as I had TEN to slightly cover the spread, but my only play on sides in the game was a 1/2 unit ML play on the Colts -- which based on the stat estimations should have won!
And boy howdy, the Bucs really should have beat the Cowboys by 6 points, almost right on my projected final score margin of 7. I've had several frustrating games over the last few weeks where the dogs have outgained the favorites, yet lost and failed to cover.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Week #8 Points Saved on Line Movements
20.5 Total points saved -- A little over 400$ saved for a 100$ player.
It's the Turnovers, Stupid.
It was a + Units day yesterday, in spite of feeling like I had more bad luck than good. Well, I just verified the bad luck with a table here, and will continue to do so every week from here on out, because it's important to gauge how much the wins and losses were due to bad luck, and how much due to poor handicapping.
The morning games, which saw us standing at +10.4 Units after completion, had a fairly even break of turnover luck (-2 on all sides, +0 on sides played). The afternoon games gobbled up a large portion of the morning profits, leaving us at +4 Units for the day. A big reason? The failure to force even a single turnover by any team that I'd picked to cover the spread, including 3 home teams of the 4 games played. In the 3 games with recommended wagers the turnovers were 9-0 against. Yeah, that's pretty awful luck.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Write Ups for Subscribers - Week #8
I did these three write ups for subscribers on Friday, and I posted them at kickoff in the forums. Thought I'd post them here, as these 3 games plus the freebie with the Saints ended up being my best games of the week, lol.
Redskins @ Lions
The Lions have covered the spread the last two weeks, both times in losing efforts. In Minneapolis two weeks ago they somehow managed to lead for most of the game versus the Vikings until giving up a game losing field goal late in the contest. I say “somehow” because they were outgained 212 to 392 yards. Yup, they were almost doubled up in yards and only lost by 2 points (the very two points the Vikings scored when Orlovsky rolled out of the pocket in the endzone and right out of bounds for a good ten yards. You’ll have to excuse Orlovsky, though, as it was his first start in the NFL). Hmm, methinks a turnover differential must have come into play…(checking game book)…yup, 3 Viking turnovers to the Lions 1. Last week the Lions outscored the 4th quarter coasting Texans 11-0 in said 4th quarter to only lose by 7 (pushing the opening number wager on the Texans I recommended. Getting the early lines made a difference in a lot of games last week, more so than usual). The big play for the Lions was a 94 yard pitch and catch to Calvin Johnson versus a dinged up and deficient Houston secondary. Even with that field-spanning play they were still outgained 326 to 404 yards. Take that play away and they were 30 yards within being doubled up in yards by a Texans’ team that couldn’t be bothered to score for a cover in the 4th quarter. Orlovsky hasn’t been completely miserable in replacing Kitna by virtue of starting against two subpar pass defenses. No such luck this week as he faces the #4 ranked pass defense of the Redskins. At least he gets a home start this week, though I’m not sure how interested Detroitians are in the Lions right now, and any fans showing up may be left with little to cheer for beyond lessened exit traffic due to a steady, coordinated exodus beginning in the 3rd quarter if this game gets out of hand early (and it’ll take a lot of luck for the Lions for it to not to).
The Redskins have been dealing with a few injuries to their defense, but they are injuries they’ve been dealing with the entire season, so their stats are fairly indicative of the level of play they’ll be capable of in this game. The Lions had a couple of injuries to their offensive line a couple of games ago, but as of last week were starting the same week #1 line with the exception of Damion Cook taking over the starting LG position from 10 year man Edwin Mulitalo. The Redskins offensive line has been healthy this season (as opposed to the disastrous early season injuries they suffered last year), with the only shake up being Jon Jansen starting at RG the last few weeks instead of Stephen Heyer, though both players are rated fairly equally, if I’m not mistaken.
I’ll dispense with the gory match up disadvantages for the Lions in this game, and head straight to the numbers. Redskins’ #2 run offense vs. Lions’ #30 run defense. Redskins’ #18 pass offense vs. Lions’ #32 pass defense. Lions’ #20 run offense vs. Redskins’ #7 run defense. Lions’ #24 pass offense vs. Redskins’ #4 pass defense.
I think the Redskins will be plenty motivated to maintain a healthy lead in this game, as they’ve seriously underachieved in turning their offensive yards into points the last two weeks, letting the Rams hang around and beat them at the buzzer, while narrowly beating Cleveland after the Browns missed a long game-tying field goal at the end of the game last week. They outgained the Rams by 168 yards, and the Browns by 115. Neither of those games should’ve been as close as they ended up being. Against the Lions’ poor defense and 26th ranked red zone defense, they can’t help but convert more of those yards into points while severely limiting any offensive success on the part of the Lions. All we need is an average amount of luck and an average amount of effort from these two teams for the Redskins to cruise to a 14 point victory.
Final Score Projection: Redskins 27 – Lions 13
Rams @ Patriots
It looks the inflated Patriots’ point spreads won’t be abating anytime soon, as the whole football loving nation saw them pulverize a Broncos squad that grew more injured and butterfingered as the game progressed. Honestly, the Broncos lost about 1/3 of their starting defense, including both their corners, before the game was over. While Cassel struggled to complete anything other than wide receiver screens early in the game, he was actually able to complete a few passes that were thrown more north to south than east to west after the Baileys (Champ and Boss – with those names you’d think they’d be brothers) and Bly were on the sidelines. When, not if, Cassel’s services are no longer required by an NFL team, he’d be wise to look for work in the Canadian league where they’ve got those extra wide fields, as opposed to the Arena league where’s it all about throwing it downfield. With the exception of one long ball to Moss in the game at SF, Cassel mostly panics, scrambles, and gets sacked when the play call doesn’t involve a throw made within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. I can only hope the Rams are prepared for those wide receiver screens…
I mean, GOOD GRIEF, take an already bad defense, put them in a short bus and have them crash into a cement culvert, put them back on the field and have them play another half of football – that’s basically what the Patriot offense was playing against last week. ANY quarterback can play okay with a huge lead, look no further than Kerry Collins for proof of that. If Kerry had been suiting up for the Lions this season I don’t think he’d be seen as the middle-aged Messiah some may view him as now. It was the perfect storm of injuries and turnovers that made the Patriots look like a legitimate contender and worthy of being 7 point home favorites versus the Rams this week.
Well, the numbers aren’t buying it, because the numbers have this game as pretty darn near a pick, actually favoring the Rams in an upset. The Patriots lost another RB, hard-running Sammy Morris, and are down to who…third down specialist Kevin Faulk now? That’s fine, he’ll still probably have as much success as Sammy because the Patriots have been run blocking pretty well since realizing that they need to in order to win games without Brady. The one significant concern with the Rams coming into this game is the status of Stephen Jackson’s injured thigh. He barely saw the practice field this week, but odds are he’s being saved and protected to play in this game, in spite of coach Haslett’s assertion that Jackson is 50/50 to take the field. The Rams’ run defense has been pretty awful this year, ranking 29th by my systems, so the Patriots should have the advantage in the rushing match ups this game, regardless of who gets the touches for them.
In the passing game we’ve got Pro Bowl caliber (at times) Marc Bulger versus the aforementioned clipboard carrying caliber Cassel. The Rams have been thin at WR all year, and so have been relying heavily on veteran Tory Holt and emerging rookie Donnie Avery. The Patriots, of course, have a fantastic duo in Randy Moss and Wes Welker, the most dangerous 1, 2 punch in wide receiver screens in the league, lol. The Patriots’ pass defense has been a little better than the Rams’ this year (20th versus 24th ranked), but will now be without wily (read dirty) old-timer Rodney Harrison at safety. I have the Rams projected at being 1 yard better per pass plays, averaging 5.7 per versus the Patriots’ 4.7. Against a non-existent Bronco defense Cassel still only managed 4.9 yards per pass play.
All told, it looks like the Rams, who’ve shown some heart and improvement since sacking Linnehan for Haslett, will be able to hang around in this game, and may even steal one on the road like they did 2 weeks ago versus the Redskins, as the Patriots are an inferior team to the Redskins in almost every facet of the game.
Final Score Prediction: Rams 21 -- Patriots 20 (I changed the Patriots to be small favorites when Steven Jackson was announced as doubtful.)
Falcons @ Eagles
The Falcons, with their new star running back, Michael Turner, and their new rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan, have become a bit of a sexy team in this 2008 season. Sharps are more interested in cash than sex, however, and the opening line of Eagles -7.5 rose to -9 over the course of a day, though a small bit of the betting furor seemed to coincide with the announcement that Brian Westbrook would be back in the lineup for the Eagles. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a team with a top 10 passing game and a bottom 10 running game experience so much line fluctuation based on the playing status of a running back before, as the Eagles’ pointspreads this year have seemingly ballooned and bombed based on Brian’s status. It’s comical, and perhaps a bit head-scratching, to see that the only time the Eagles’ run game has averaged more yards per carry than their opponent’s normally allow is in the two games that Westbrook didn’t play this season. In the two games without Westbrook the Eagles were +0.9 and +0.8 yards per carry better than their opponent’s average, while with Westbrook starting the best they managed was -0.1 compared to the opponent’s average, and have averaged -0.8 in his four starts (though he didn’t finish at least one of those games he started). Some of this correlation is due to Shawn Andrews’ injury at RG. Still, of the 4 games he didn’t play, 2 were good rushing games without Westbrook, and 2 poor rushing games with Westbrook.
The Eagles’ run defense started off the season in dominating fashion, but has been steadily backsliding in recent weeks. Whether the bye week helps them regain defensive form versus the #3 ranked Atlanta rush offense remains to be seen. The Eagles will want to minimize the Falcons’ running success by playing a fairly up tempo offense in an effort to build a lead that will force the Falcons to pass more often in the second half, where Philly’s aggressive blitz schemes can force the rookie Ryan into mistakes. Philly has a dangerous defense when leading a game late, as evidenced by the turnovers and scores they collected versus the 49ers in the last few minutes of their last game. Philly is more than capable of building a lead with the sizeable advantage they have with the passing matchups, where their 8th rated pass offense faces the Falcons’ 28th rated pass defense. The Eagles can really light it up versus sub-par defenses, they’ve scored 37 or more points in 3 of their 6 games so far this year. They’ve been able do this without the services of WR Kevin Curtis, who returns to the lineup this week, and Reggie Brown (played in one game so far this year), who looks to be recovering well enough from a groin injury to play this week. Though the Eagles have seen an offensive downturn since losing RG Shawn Andrews to a back injury, they’ll have more offensive weapons on the field this week than they’ve seen all year. If the Eagles score the 37 points they look primed to do this week, it’ll be hard for the Falcons to score the 28 points necessary to push the current spread, let alone cover it, as only Dallas has scored more than 26 points versus the Eagles this year, and the Eagles have only allowed an average of 10.7 points in their 3 home games this year. I have the Eagles scoring less than 37 this week, but wouldn’t be at all surprised if they did. I think the Falcons will get within sniffing distance of 20 points, but will not scratch it.
Matt Ryan is no doubt improving and is already looking like a career starter in this league only 6 games into his NFL career. Still, this game will be a very tough test for him and odds are he won’t get the defensive help necessary to cover this number by just managing the game. It’s still a road rookie with a vastly inferior defense versus Donovan McNabb when it’s all said and done.
Final Score Projection: Falcons 17 – Eagles 31
Redskins @ Lions
The Lions have covered the spread the last two weeks, both times in losing efforts. In Minneapolis two weeks ago they somehow managed to lead for most of the game versus the Vikings until giving up a game losing field goal late in the contest. I say “somehow” because they were outgained 212 to 392 yards. Yup, they were almost doubled up in yards and only lost by 2 points (the very two points the Vikings scored when Orlovsky rolled out of the pocket in the endzone and right out of bounds for a good ten yards. You’ll have to excuse Orlovsky, though, as it was his first start in the NFL). Hmm, methinks a turnover differential must have come into play…(checking game book)…yup, 3 Viking turnovers to the Lions 1. Last week the Lions outscored the 4th quarter coasting Texans 11-0 in said 4th quarter to only lose by 7 (pushing the opening number wager on the Texans I recommended. Getting the early lines made a difference in a lot of games last week, more so than usual). The big play for the Lions was a 94 yard pitch and catch to Calvin Johnson versus a dinged up and deficient Houston secondary. Even with that field-spanning play they were still outgained 326 to 404 yards. Take that play away and they were 30 yards within being doubled up in yards by a Texans’ team that couldn’t be bothered to score for a cover in the 4th quarter. Orlovsky hasn’t been completely miserable in replacing Kitna by virtue of starting against two subpar pass defenses. No such luck this week as he faces the #4 ranked pass defense of the Redskins. At least he gets a home start this week, though I’m not sure how interested Detroitians are in the Lions right now, and any fans showing up may be left with little to cheer for beyond lessened exit traffic due to a steady, coordinated exodus beginning in the 3rd quarter if this game gets out of hand early (and it’ll take a lot of luck for the Lions for it to not to).
The Redskins have been dealing with a few injuries to their defense, but they are injuries they’ve been dealing with the entire season, so their stats are fairly indicative of the level of play they’ll be capable of in this game. The Lions had a couple of injuries to their offensive line a couple of games ago, but as of last week were starting the same week #1 line with the exception of Damion Cook taking over the starting LG position from 10 year man Edwin Mulitalo. The Redskins offensive line has been healthy this season (as opposed to the disastrous early season injuries they suffered last year), with the only shake up being Jon Jansen starting at RG the last few weeks instead of Stephen Heyer, though both players are rated fairly equally, if I’m not mistaken.
I’ll dispense with the gory match up disadvantages for the Lions in this game, and head straight to the numbers. Redskins’ #2 run offense vs. Lions’ #30 run defense. Redskins’ #18 pass offense vs. Lions’ #32 pass defense. Lions’ #20 run offense vs. Redskins’ #7 run defense. Lions’ #24 pass offense vs. Redskins’ #4 pass defense.
I think the Redskins will be plenty motivated to maintain a healthy lead in this game, as they’ve seriously underachieved in turning their offensive yards into points the last two weeks, letting the Rams hang around and beat them at the buzzer, while narrowly beating Cleveland after the Browns missed a long game-tying field goal at the end of the game last week. They outgained the Rams by 168 yards, and the Browns by 115. Neither of those games should’ve been as close as they ended up being. Against the Lions’ poor defense and 26th ranked red zone defense, they can’t help but convert more of those yards into points while severely limiting any offensive success on the part of the Lions. All we need is an average amount of luck and an average amount of effort from these two teams for the Redskins to cruise to a 14 point victory.
Final Score Projection: Redskins 27 – Lions 13
Rams @ Patriots
It looks the inflated Patriots’ point spreads won’t be abating anytime soon, as the whole football loving nation saw them pulverize a Broncos squad that grew more injured and butterfingered as the game progressed. Honestly, the Broncos lost about 1/3 of their starting defense, including both their corners, before the game was over. While Cassel struggled to complete anything other than wide receiver screens early in the game, he was actually able to complete a few passes that were thrown more north to south than east to west after the Baileys (Champ and Boss – with those names you’d think they’d be brothers) and Bly were on the sidelines. When, not if, Cassel’s services are no longer required by an NFL team, he’d be wise to look for work in the Canadian league where they’ve got those extra wide fields, as opposed to the Arena league where’s it all about throwing it downfield. With the exception of one long ball to Moss in the game at SF, Cassel mostly panics, scrambles, and gets sacked when the play call doesn’t involve a throw made within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. I can only hope the Rams are prepared for those wide receiver screens…
I mean, GOOD GRIEF, take an already bad defense, put them in a short bus and have them crash into a cement culvert, put them back on the field and have them play another half of football – that’s basically what the Patriot offense was playing against last week. ANY quarterback can play okay with a huge lead, look no further than Kerry Collins for proof of that. If Kerry had been suiting up for the Lions this season I don’t think he’d be seen as the middle-aged Messiah some may view him as now. It was the perfect storm of injuries and turnovers that made the Patriots look like a legitimate contender and worthy of being 7 point home favorites versus the Rams this week.
Well, the numbers aren’t buying it, because the numbers have this game as pretty darn near a pick, actually favoring the Rams in an upset. The Patriots lost another RB, hard-running Sammy Morris, and are down to who…third down specialist Kevin Faulk now? That’s fine, he’ll still probably have as much success as Sammy because the Patriots have been run blocking pretty well since realizing that they need to in order to win games without Brady. The one significant concern with the Rams coming into this game is the status of Stephen Jackson’s injured thigh. He barely saw the practice field this week, but odds are he’s being saved and protected to play in this game, in spite of coach Haslett’s assertion that Jackson is 50/50 to take the field. The Rams’ run defense has been pretty awful this year, ranking 29th by my systems, so the Patriots should have the advantage in the rushing match ups this game, regardless of who gets the touches for them.
In the passing game we’ve got Pro Bowl caliber (at times) Marc Bulger versus the aforementioned clipboard carrying caliber Cassel. The Rams have been thin at WR all year, and so have been relying heavily on veteran Tory Holt and emerging rookie Donnie Avery. The Patriots, of course, have a fantastic duo in Randy Moss and Wes Welker, the most dangerous 1, 2 punch in wide receiver screens in the league, lol. The Patriots’ pass defense has been a little better than the Rams’ this year (20th versus 24th ranked), but will now be without wily (read dirty) old-timer Rodney Harrison at safety. I have the Rams projected at being 1 yard better per pass plays, averaging 5.7 per versus the Patriots’ 4.7. Against a non-existent Bronco defense Cassel still only managed 4.9 yards per pass play.
All told, it looks like the Rams, who’ve shown some heart and improvement since sacking Linnehan for Haslett, will be able to hang around in this game, and may even steal one on the road like they did 2 weeks ago versus the Redskins, as the Patriots are an inferior team to the Redskins in almost every facet of the game.
Final Score Prediction: Rams 21 -- Patriots 20 (I changed the Patriots to be small favorites when Steven Jackson was announced as doubtful.)
Falcons @ Eagles
The Falcons, with their new star running back, Michael Turner, and their new rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan, have become a bit of a sexy team in this 2008 season. Sharps are more interested in cash than sex, however, and the opening line of Eagles -7.5 rose to -9 over the course of a day, though a small bit of the betting furor seemed to coincide with the announcement that Brian Westbrook would be back in the lineup for the Eagles. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a team with a top 10 passing game and a bottom 10 running game experience so much line fluctuation based on the playing status of a running back before, as the Eagles’ pointspreads this year have seemingly ballooned and bombed based on Brian’s status. It’s comical, and perhaps a bit head-scratching, to see that the only time the Eagles’ run game has averaged more yards per carry than their opponent’s normally allow is in the two games that Westbrook didn’t play this season. In the two games without Westbrook the Eagles were +0.9 and +0.8 yards per carry better than their opponent’s average, while with Westbrook starting the best they managed was -0.1 compared to the opponent’s average, and have averaged -0.8 in his four starts (though he didn’t finish at least one of those games he started). Some of this correlation is due to Shawn Andrews’ injury at RG. Still, of the 4 games he didn’t play, 2 were good rushing games without Westbrook, and 2 poor rushing games with Westbrook.
The Eagles’ run defense started off the season in dominating fashion, but has been steadily backsliding in recent weeks. Whether the bye week helps them regain defensive form versus the #3 ranked Atlanta rush offense remains to be seen. The Eagles will want to minimize the Falcons’ running success by playing a fairly up tempo offense in an effort to build a lead that will force the Falcons to pass more often in the second half, where Philly’s aggressive blitz schemes can force the rookie Ryan into mistakes. Philly has a dangerous defense when leading a game late, as evidenced by the turnovers and scores they collected versus the 49ers in the last few minutes of their last game. Philly is more than capable of building a lead with the sizeable advantage they have with the passing matchups, where their 8th rated pass offense faces the Falcons’ 28th rated pass defense. The Eagles can really light it up versus sub-par defenses, they’ve scored 37 or more points in 3 of their 6 games so far this year. They’ve been able do this without the services of WR Kevin Curtis, who returns to the lineup this week, and Reggie Brown (played in one game so far this year), who looks to be recovering well enough from a groin injury to play this week. Though the Eagles have seen an offensive downturn since losing RG Shawn Andrews to a back injury, they’ll have more offensive weapons on the field this week than they’ve seen all year. If the Eagles score the 37 points they look primed to do this week, it’ll be hard for the Falcons to score the 28 points necessary to push the current spread, let alone cover it, as only Dallas has scored more than 26 points versus the Eagles this year, and the Eagles have only allowed an average of 10.7 points in their 3 home games this year. I have the Eagles scoring less than 37 this week, but wouldn’t be at all surprised if they did. I think the Falcons will get within sniffing distance of 20 points, but will not scratch it.
Matt Ryan is no doubt improving and is already looking like a career starter in this league only 6 games into his NFL career. Still, this game will be a very tough test for him and odds are he won’t get the defensive help necessary to cover this number by just managing the game. It’s still a road rookie with a vastly inferior defense versus Donovan McNabb when it’s all said and done.
Final Score Projection: Falcons 17 – Eagles 31
Friday, October 24, 2008
My "Lines & Values" Table
My "Lines & Values" table, the popular new layout I'd been posting in forums earlier this season, has been available to subscribers for a couple of days now on the private site. FYI in case you've been missing seeing it, lol. Also there is the list of the opening line recommended plays and the number of points saved versus line movements so far this week. As of last count yesterday, the total number of points saved versus line movements was 19.25 for all recommended plays.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Week #8 Freebie
San Diego and New Orleans in London
The Chargers have twice been pummeled when traveling to the East coast for a 1 pm game this year, both times occurring within the last 3 weeks. What will happen to them when they have to move their clocks up 5 more hours from East coast time for the game in London this week? If you believe in travel fatigue, I’m not sure an NFL team has ever faced more coming into a game than the Chargers this week. It’s not like they were just unfortunate in their prior East coast losses either, they were pretty soundly beaten.
The Saints were pretty soundly beaten when looking at the scoreboard for last week’s game at Carolina. The final score doesn’t tell the real story, though, as the Saints actually outgained the Panthers in total yards. The Saints had two turnovers, while the Panthers had known. If there was unbalanced distribution of turnovers in a game this last week, believe me, I was on the wrong side of it, lol. Last week, both the Saints and Chargers gained 5.5 yards per play, though the Saints did it versus an overall tougher Carolina defense.
Jeremey Shockey, the red neck, blue talking over-rated TE for the Saints, reaggravated the hernia injury that had kept him out of several games. He says he’s currently feeling better and did travel with the team to London, though his status is still “?”. Reggie Bush is out for 3-4 weeks, and that’s an injury with actual negative repercussions for the Saints (as Billy Miller and the somewhat gimpy Mark Campbell are both adequate replacements for Shock Jock), as he’s returned 3 punts for touchdowns and has big play capability either running or catching the ball on offense.
The Chargers’ have been dealing with recent injuries in their wide receiving and linebacker corps, and it looks like those injuries will carry over into this game.
Marques Colston did return from injury for the Saints last week, but didn’t catch any balls. His lack of production was attributed to being out of sync with the offense after his long injury absence.
Neither team is particularly adept at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, though the Chargers are 3 rankings worse at #25. They had no sacks and were not even credited with a quarterback hurry in last week’s loss at Buffalo. I don’t need to tell you what kind of strain their defense is going to be under if they can’t get pressure on Drew Brees, who is already one of the least sacked quarterbacks in football, ranking #2 in sacks allowed per passing plays (my rankings always have #1 as being the most favorable in a category, so the Saints #2 ranking in sacks allowed per passing plays means they allow the second least). The Saints still have the #1 ranked passing game in football, while the Chargers are #3. The gap is wider than the actual rankings though, and I project the Saints to get about one more yard per passing play than the Chargers.
The Chargers’ run game production has dropped markedly this year in no small part due to LT’s troubled toe. Take away a 31 yard reverse by Vincent Jackson last week and you’re left with the running backs only gaining 41 yards via the rush. The Saints run game is where it typically is, near the bottom of the rankings. The Chargers will have the advantage in the run game, but it won’t be enough to counter their disadvantage in the passing game.
The Saints released their punter after last weeks’ loss, and signed Ben Graham to fill his shoes. The Saints’ kicking and punting has been dreadful this year, with both kicker Gramatica and punter Weatherford no longer active in their duties.
This game looks to be settled by the passing match ups, with Drew Brees more capable of success with his current targets than Phillip Rivers is with his.
Final Score Projection: Chargers 23 – Saints 26
Recommend Play: Saints +3
I am showing some value on the Over, but given the forecast of 20+ mph winds with slight precipitation and fairly high humidity, I’d pass on the total, in spite of the air show this game may turn into. If the wind forecast decreases, the Over becomes playable. If the precipitation forecast increases, look out, as the Giants and Dolphins played a very low-scoring game on a muddy natural grass field in London last year.
The Chargers have twice been pummeled when traveling to the East coast for a 1 pm game this year, both times occurring within the last 3 weeks. What will happen to them when they have to move their clocks up 5 more hours from East coast time for the game in London this week? If you believe in travel fatigue, I’m not sure an NFL team has ever faced more coming into a game than the Chargers this week. It’s not like they were just unfortunate in their prior East coast losses either, they were pretty soundly beaten.
The Saints were pretty soundly beaten when looking at the scoreboard for last week’s game at Carolina. The final score doesn’t tell the real story, though, as the Saints actually outgained the Panthers in total yards. The Saints had two turnovers, while the Panthers had known. If there was unbalanced distribution of turnovers in a game this last week, believe me, I was on the wrong side of it, lol. Last week, both the Saints and Chargers gained 5.5 yards per play, though the Saints did it versus an overall tougher Carolina defense.
Jeremey Shockey, the red neck, blue talking over-rated TE for the Saints, reaggravated the hernia injury that had kept him out of several games. He says he’s currently feeling better and did travel with the team to London, though his status is still “?”. Reggie Bush is out for 3-4 weeks, and that’s an injury with actual negative repercussions for the Saints (as Billy Miller and the somewhat gimpy Mark Campbell are both adequate replacements for Shock Jock), as he’s returned 3 punts for touchdowns and has big play capability either running or catching the ball on offense.
The Chargers’ have been dealing with recent injuries in their wide receiving and linebacker corps, and it looks like those injuries will carry over into this game.
Marques Colston did return from injury for the Saints last week, but didn’t catch any balls. His lack of production was attributed to being out of sync with the offense after his long injury absence.
Neither team is particularly adept at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, though the Chargers are 3 rankings worse at #25. They had no sacks and were not even credited with a quarterback hurry in last week’s loss at Buffalo. I don’t need to tell you what kind of strain their defense is going to be under if they can’t get pressure on Drew Brees, who is already one of the least sacked quarterbacks in football, ranking #2 in sacks allowed per passing plays (my rankings always have #1 as being the most favorable in a category, so the Saints #2 ranking in sacks allowed per passing plays means they allow the second least). The Saints still have the #1 ranked passing game in football, while the Chargers are #3. The gap is wider than the actual rankings though, and I project the Saints to get about one more yard per passing play than the Chargers.
The Chargers’ run game production has dropped markedly this year in no small part due to LT’s troubled toe. Take away a 31 yard reverse by Vincent Jackson last week and you’re left with the running backs only gaining 41 yards via the rush. The Saints run game is where it typically is, near the bottom of the rankings. The Chargers will have the advantage in the run game, but it won’t be enough to counter their disadvantage in the passing game.
The Saints released their punter after last weeks’ loss, and signed Ben Graham to fill his shoes. The Saints’ kicking and punting has been dreadful this year, with both kicker Gramatica and punter Weatherford no longer active in their duties.
This game looks to be settled by the passing match ups, with Drew Brees more capable of success with his current targets than Phillip Rivers is with his.
Final Score Projection: Chargers 23 – Saints 26
Recommend Play: Saints +3
I am showing some value on the Over, but given the forecast of 20+ mph winds with slight precipitation and fairly high humidity, I’d pass on the total, in spite of the air show this game may turn into. If the wind forecast decreases, the Over becomes playable. If the precipitation forecast increases, look out, as the Giants and Dolphins played a very low-scoring game on a muddy natural grass field in London last year.
Monday, October 20, 2008
MNF Props Week #7
Adding for 1 Unit:
Denver 1st to make a First Down (-135)
This is almost identical to the scenario in the Saints/Vikings game 2 weeks ago where the Saints were highly likely to get the ball first in the game, which they did, and made a First down two plays into the game. The line on this play for the Saints went up to -180 before kickoff.
Over 3 Field Goals (-115 BookMaker -- the same play is -140 at 5Dimes...? lol)
Lots of offense, and two accurate kickers with strong legs.
1/2 Unit:
NE to Make Shortest FG (-120)
The Patriots have a worse red zone offense and defense so far this year.
Denver to score 1st (+115 5Dimes)
Kind of curious that 5Dimes still has this soft of a line when you consider that Denver will almost certainly start the game with the ball and have taken the first possession for a score many times this season (if memory serves).
BookMaker has the line for this play at -105, by comparison.
Went 5 for 5 on MNF props 2 weeks ago, so let's see if lightening strikes twice.
I also like the Under 9.5 punts, but the juice on that is -150 right now, which is rather unappetizing. Still probably has value, though, I might look into it. Okay -- just checked. Both of these teams have 1 game each this year that had more than 9 punts in it. Considering how weak both defenses are the line for this play should be closer to -200.
1/2 Unit: Under 9.5 Punts (-150)
Denver 1st to make a First Down (-135)
This is almost identical to the scenario in the Saints/Vikings game 2 weeks ago where the Saints were highly likely to get the ball first in the game, which they did, and made a First down two plays into the game. The line on this play for the Saints went up to -180 before kickoff.
Over 3 Field Goals (-115 BookMaker -- the same play is -140 at 5Dimes...? lol)
Lots of offense, and two accurate kickers with strong legs.
1/2 Unit:
NE to Make Shortest FG (-120)
The Patriots have a worse red zone offense and defense so far this year.
Denver to score 1st (+115 5Dimes)
Kind of curious that 5Dimes still has this soft of a line when you consider that Denver will almost certainly start the game with the ball and have taken the first possession for a score many times this season (if memory serves).
BookMaker has the line for this play at -105, by comparison.
Went 5 for 5 on MNF props 2 weeks ago, so let's see if lightening strikes twice.
I also like the Under 9.5 punts, but the juice on that is -150 right now, which is rather unappetizing. Still probably has value, though, I might look into it. Okay -- just checked. Both of these teams have 1 game each this year that had more than 9 punts in it. Considering how weak both defenses are the line for this play should be closer to -200.
1/2 Unit: Under 9.5 Punts (-150)
Monday Night Football -- Knock on Wood
I've been doing pretty well on the Sunday night games this year (see last night), but have had a real bad luck half in many of the Monday Nighters lately. Last week the MNF game alone turned what had been a mildly winning week into my first losing week since week #1. I find myself in the same spot tonight, entering the game with a small profit for the week, looking to close out a teaser with one leg left to cash, and bets on the road team and the total. Last week I had the fav and the Under, this week I have the dog and the Over. So in spite of having Denver as my favorite side of the week, I'm wondering if the MNF jinx will rear it's ugly head again tonight.
Still, there is reason for optimism (as there is for all plays one makes, right?). The Patriots, by my ratings, actually have a worse pass defense than the Broncos. The Broncos still have the 7th best passing game in the league, they've just suffered from INTs and fumbles deep in enemy territory the last few games. The Patriots, with Clipboard Cassel at the helm, have the 27th best passing game in the league.
The Bronocs also have the 7th best running game (one more 7 and I've hit the jackpot -- that's gotta' be a jinx buster!). The Patriots run game? 23rd best. The Broncos have been pretty awful stopping the run, ranking 30th, though the Patriots haven't been a whole lot better coming in at 24th. Selvin Young, RB for the Broncos, is still "?" as far as I know, but Pittman had a great game last week filling in the injured Young. Denver has traditionally done pretty well with any running back behind the stellar offensive line run schemes they employ.
So the Broncos have a clear edge in the passing game, and a small edge in the running game. Is the Bellichick magic at home enough to overcome the fundamental disadvantages the Patriots have in this game? Recent history says no, as Shanahan has had very good success versus Bill B. in this century.
Final Score Projection: Broncos 30 -- Patriots 21
Recommended Plays:
1 Unit:
Broncos +3
1/2 Unit:
Broncos ML
Broncos ML 1st Q.
(I'd rather take the plus juice on the 1st Q. ML play than the -150 juice on the Broncos +0.5 1st Q. play. It's going to be a pretty high scoring game, so less likely to be tied after the 1st Q. The Patriots have started deferring the coin toss since Brady's injury, while the Broncos have elected to receive all 3 times they've won the toss.)
Broncos +1 1st Half (-105 BookMaker)
Still, there is reason for optimism (as there is for all plays one makes, right?). The Patriots, by my ratings, actually have a worse pass defense than the Broncos. The Broncos still have the 7th best passing game in the league, they've just suffered from INTs and fumbles deep in enemy territory the last few games. The Patriots, with Clipboard Cassel at the helm, have the 27th best passing game in the league.
The Bronocs also have the 7th best running game (one more 7 and I've hit the jackpot -- that's gotta' be a jinx buster!). The Patriots run game? 23rd best. The Broncos have been pretty awful stopping the run, ranking 30th, though the Patriots haven't been a whole lot better coming in at 24th. Selvin Young, RB for the Broncos, is still "?" as far as I know, but Pittman had a great game last week filling in the injured Young. Denver has traditionally done pretty well with any running back behind the stellar offensive line run schemes they employ.
So the Broncos have a clear edge in the passing game, and a small edge in the running game. Is the Bellichick magic at home enough to overcome the fundamental disadvantages the Patriots have in this game? Recent history says no, as Shanahan has had very good success versus Bill B. in this century.
Final Score Projection: Broncos 30 -- Patriots 21
Recommended Plays:
1 Unit:
Broncos +3
1/2 Unit:
Broncos ML
Broncos ML 1st Q.
(I'd rather take the plus juice on the 1st Q. ML play than the -150 juice on the Broncos +0.5 1st Q. play. It's going to be a pretty high scoring game, so less likely to be tied after the 1st Q. The Patriots have started deferring the coin toss since Brady's injury, while the Broncos have elected to receive all 3 times they've won the toss.)
Broncos +1 1st Half (-105 BookMaker)
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Sunday Wrap -- Winning with Junk
Sigh, another late touchdown to give us a push on the TB -10 play, and give me a horrible ATS record for thepredictiontracker.com this week, lol. Could not get the breaks on the side today at all. Still, we hustled and turned a profit of +0.85 Units for the day as we killed every other play on the SNF game, and you subscribers alone reaped the benefit of a little over 2 Units won on second half plays today. Listen to all that "touty" sounding talk, lol.
Went 3 for 4 on the big first half favorites (I already groused about how Cincy just barely cost me 4 for 4 on those today). 1 of 2 on 1st half parlays, which turns a profit. The Saints had the ball with 2 chances to score a touchdown in the 2nd Q. to make it 2 for 2 on the parlays, but yeah, we know how the Saints did today.
Team Totals went a perfect 2 for 2 with winners on the Vikings Over and the Seahawks Under.
Plus money on teasers going 2-1.
Totals ended up in the black after hitting the Under in the SNF game.
But the sides? Oh the sides; a dismal -6.9 Units today, which leaves us with a small profit of +0.85 Units on the day. Still, we've got a leg up heading into the MNF game only needing Denver +15 to cash the lone Monster teaser of the week, the orphaned play I made when I had BAL covering the spread originally. Better to be lucky than good sometimes, lol.
The money continues to come in on Denver, who opened at +3.5 and are currently +3 (-115 range of vig). The Over has predictably shot up a couple of points as well, so feeling pretty good about the Over 46 heading into the game tomorrow.
Went 3 for 4 on the big first half favorites (I already groused about how Cincy just barely cost me 4 for 4 on those today). 1 of 2 on 1st half parlays, which turns a profit. The Saints had the ball with 2 chances to score a touchdown in the 2nd Q. to make it 2 for 2 on the parlays, but yeah, we know how the Saints did today.
Team Totals went a perfect 2 for 2 with winners on the Vikings Over and the Seahawks Under.
Plus money on teasers going 2-1.
Totals ended up in the black after hitting the Under in the SNF game.
But the sides? Oh the sides; a dismal -6.9 Units today, which leaves us with a small profit of +0.85 Units on the day. Still, we've got a leg up heading into the MNF game only needing Denver +15 to cash the lone Monster teaser of the week, the orphaned play I made when I had BAL covering the spread originally. Better to be lucky than good sometimes, lol.
The money continues to come in on Denver, who opened at +3.5 and are currently +3 (-115 range of vig). The Over has predictably shot up a couple of points as well, so feeling pretty good about the Over 46 heading into the game tomorrow.
I'm going to vent, it's what I do, lol.
Boy, seems like most late 4th quarter scores were really unhelpful today, barring the late flurry in KC that gave us the Over. It was really kind of a crappy luck day over all, so time for a mini-rant/breakdown.
The Redskins outgained the Browns 351 to 236 yards, yet only won by 3 as a late Browns’ score killed the Redskins’ side, and the subsequent successful 2 point conversion killed the 2nd half play by one point. Gawd.
The Lions throw a 94-yard touchdown pass (and another successful 2 point conversion to kill a 2nd half play) en route to 11 unanswered 4th quarter points. I personally had the Texans -7 to settle for the disappointing push (hope you had -7 as well – that number was available for near an entire day).
The Vikings outgained the Bears by 102 yards…and lost by 7 points.
The Saints outgained the Panthers by a few yards…and lost 7-30. How is that possible, lol. And how is possible the Saints couldn’t put at least another touchdown on the board to push the Over bet.
The Dolphins outgained the Ravens by 2 yards…and lost 13-27. Thank you pick 6.
Dallas meaningless touchdown late in the 4th to kill an Under.
Indy converts 4th downs near the very end of game to eventually get a touchdown that pushes my Under (though it was probably a loss for most others unless you got the 48 early).
The 49ers were only outgained by 20 yards, yet lost by 12 points.
The Bengals were kind enough to score their only touchdown of the game with less than a minute left in the first half to kill the PIT -6 1st half bet. The Steelers were kind enough to score the majority of their points in the second half, ensuring that the first half bet was a loser as well as the Unders for the game.
Missed the Over in SD/BUF when Rivers throws an interception in the end zone. Multiple chances for that last touchdown to push the Over, but no dice.
Sure, there may have been a couple of breaks that helped with some of the plays somewhere along the way, but other than the late points in KC, nothing significant comes to mind, lol. Last week I felt pretty snake bit as well. Oh well, the football Gods showed me a pretty good time in weeks 2-5, and they seem dead set on getting a little, a verrrrry little bit back of what was made earlier in the season.
Still, if things continue to follow the script in the TB/SEA game (17-0 2 minutes left in 1st half), we’ll still be looking at being pretty near even for the week, which ain’t bad considering all of the above!
The Redskins outgained the Browns 351 to 236 yards, yet only won by 3 as a late Browns’ score killed the Redskins’ side, and the subsequent successful 2 point conversion killed the 2nd half play by one point. Gawd.
The Lions throw a 94-yard touchdown pass (and another successful 2 point conversion to kill a 2nd half play) en route to 11 unanswered 4th quarter points. I personally had the Texans -7 to settle for the disappointing push (hope you had -7 as well – that number was available for near an entire day).
The Vikings outgained the Bears by 102 yards…and lost by 7 points.
The Saints outgained the Panthers by a few yards…and lost 7-30. How is that possible, lol. And how is possible the Saints couldn’t put at least another touchdown on the board to push the Over bet.
The Dolphins outgained the Ravens by 2 yards…and lost 13-27. Thank you pick 6.
Dallas meaningless touchdown late in the 4th to kill an Under.
Indy converts 4th downs near the very end of game to eventually get a touchdown that pushes my Under (though it was probably a loss for most others unless you got the 48 early).
The 49ers were only outgained by 20 yards, yet lost by 12 points.
The Bengals were kind enough to score their only touchdown of the game with less than a minute left in the first half to kill the PIT -6 1st half bet. The Steelers were kind enough to score the majority of their points in the second half, ensuring that the first half bet was a loser as well as the Unders for the game.
Missed the Over in SD/BUF when Rivers throws an interception in the end zone. Multiple chances for that last touchdown to push the Over, but no dice.
Sure, there may have been a couple of breaks that helped with some of the plays somewhere along the way, but other than the late points in KC, nothing significant comes to mind, lol. Last week I felt pretty snake bit as well. Oh well, the football Gods showed me a pretty good time in weeks 2-5, and they seem dead set on getting a little, a verrrrry little bit back of what was made earlier in the season.
Still, if things continue to follow the script in the TB/SEA game (17-0 2 minutes left in 1st half), we’ll still be looking at being pretty near even for the week, which ain’t bad considering all of the above!
Friday, October 17, 2008
Week #7 Final Tally on Line Movement Savings
KCo23.5/BAL+14.5/MIN+15/DEN+15
BAL ML +128
MIA ML -134
NO ML +140
DEN ML +150
MIN ML +160
TEN -7______________2
TEN/KC OVER 35
BAL/MIA OVER 34.5____________2
NO +3
NO/CAR OVER 44 ____________1
NYJ/OAK UNDER 43____________2
IND/GB UNDER 48____________1
MIN +3
DEN +3.5__________0.5
DEN/NE OVER 46_______________2
TEN -0.5/HOU -2.5
DAL/STL UNDER 44
SF/NYG OVER 45_____________2
SF +12 ________________2
WAS -1/DAL -1
SEA/TB UNDER 39_________________1
PIT/CLE UNDER 37 _______________2.5
BAL +3
MIA -2.5
SD/BUFF OVER 44
HOU -6/OVER 23.5 1ST HALF
NO +1/OVER 22.5 1ST HALF
HOU -8.5_______________1
TB -10
Redskins -6.5______________0.5
SD ML
Final Tally_______________19.5
That's 19.5 points saved on line movements and a 13-0 record for being on the right side of beating the line movements. For a 100$ a Unit player (and calculated using the recommended units for each play I originally posted) that is a savings of 367$ if you were to take the currently available lines and buy to the numbers that were available when I recommended the plays. Like I said, you're the one getting paid when you follow my early releases!
BAL ML +128
MIA ML -134
NO ML +140
DEN ML +150
MIN ML +160
TEN -7______________2
TEN/KC OVER 35
BAL/MIA OVER 34.5____________2
NO +3
NO/CAR OVER 44 ____________1
NYJ/OAK UNDER 43____________2
IND/GB UNDER 48____________1
MIN +3
DEN +3.5__________0.5
DEN/NE OVER 46_______________2
TEN -0.5/HOU -2.5
DAL/STL UNDER 44
SF/NYG OVER 45_____________2
SF +12 ________________2
WAS -1/DAL -1
SEA/TB UNDER 39_________________1
PIT/CLE UNDER 37 _______________2.5
BAL +3
MIA -2.5
SD/BUFF OVER 44
HOU -6/OVER 23.5 1ST HALF
NO +1/OVER 22.5 1ST HALF
HOU -8.5_______________1
TB -10
Redskins -6.5______________0.5
SD ML
Final Tally_______________19.5
That's 19.5 points saved on line movements and a 13-0 record for being on the right side of beating the line movements. For a 100$ a Unit player (and calculated using the recommended units for each play I originally posted) that is a savings of 367$ if you were to take the currently available lines and buy to the numbers that were available when I recommended the plays. Like I said, you're the one getting paid when you follow my early releases!
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
An Insider Article that Sums up Exactly why I was Down a Little Bit this Week, lol.
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
NEVADA SPORTSBOOKS HAVE HUGE WEEKEND KEYED BY INDY AND NFL UNDERDOGS
Most weeks you hear sportsbook operators in Las Vegas and Reno crying.
*If things went badly, they’re crying about it.
*If they broke even, they’re crying about it as if it went badly.
*If they won a little, they’re crying as if it went badly.
*If they won, they’re remembering an earlier bad week and crying about it.
*If they won BIG, they can’t keep the big smiles off their faces!
There are a lot of big smiles behind the counters at sportsbooks this week because the public lost big, AND the sharps lost big as well. This was particularly true in the NFL, though there was some big college action that went down in a few spots. Pro football is where the money came in:
*Baltimore was a very popular sharp play last week, particularly at the early numbers. I talked about this over the weekend, outlining how the line had fallen almost a field goal from the opener. The Ravens were literally never in the game. Indianapolis, a team that drove a spike through the hearts of oddsmakers the prior Sunday in Houston made it up to them with a blowout win. You don’t often see the sharps lose when the line moves this much. The sportsbooks were certainly celebrating that rare occurrence.
*Carolina was a popular play at the early number too in Tampa Bay. And, once that line came down, the Panthers were a popular play in teasers. The public usually teases big favorites down as “insurance.” Sharps use “basic strategy” of crossing the 3’s and 7’s whenever they can. Carolina was a qualifier there on paper, but lost on the field 27-3. Sharps tend to “round robin” their teaser teams. So, when a team loses, it doesn’t just cost them one bet…it costs them every bet containing that team. It’s also worth nothing that sharps like teasers even MORE when a game is expected to be a defensive struggle. Moving a line 6 points has more value when the over under is 37 than when it’s 47. Carolina hurt a lot of sharps bad.
*Minnesota, Houston, and Washington were all popular public favorites this week. Minnesota and Washington were going against Detroit and St. Louis. The public had made good money betting against those horrible teams this year. It came back to bite them Sunday though, as both ugly dogs almost won outright. A lot of parlay cards and public teaser bets went down with those results. Houston won straight up, but couldn’t cover its three point spread.
*Denver and Over was a popular play in late action, as everyone pictured that high octane offense posting a big result against the struggling Jacksonville defense. That didn’t happen either. Another popular parlay team bit the dust. Remember that late games have more betting action then early games. One result like this can make up for a bad morning from the casino’s perspective. When the morning went well…this kind of result is a home run.
*Monday Night, the books really cleaned up when Cleveland upset the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. Not only were the Giants a popular betting team for the public…but the Giants were in a lot of parlays and teasers. In fact, the Giants were probably the number one teaser team in Nevada and offshore because the public wanted the extra points for insurance…and the sharps were using basic strategy and bringing the line down across the 7 and the 3. Some seasoned professionals had also used the Giants in teasers for NEXT week. Those have lost already. What was supposed to be a bailout night for the public and the sharps turned into a one-night printing press for the sportsbooks.
The only tears this week for sportsbook operators are tears of joy. It’s been hard for them to remember a week THIS good where everything fell into place.
Are those guys the only ones smiling right now? No. Some players did very well too.
Old school sharps in particular scored big. Those guys love underdogs, particularly big underdogs. That means they were taking shots on Detroit and St. Louis while the public was loading up on the favorites. They were backing the big Monday Night home underdog in the final game of the weekend. If the old school guys needed a bailout because of other losses, they won. If they were up for the weekend because of their dog success, they pressed their winnings up and cashed a nice ticket.
Are there any lessons YOU can take from a week like this? I think there are several:
*First, remember that even professional wagerers have bad weeks. Those who focus on teasers did very well last year, but aren’t so happy about it this year. The past weekend was particularly tough on them because both Carolina and the NY Giants failed to get there. Most big teasers involved those teams because of the low game total in the first one, and the apparent statistical edges in the second. Don’t get too down on yourself after a bad week. The best of the sharps have bad weeks too.
*Remember that the betting markets often overrate the most highly regarded teams. My last article talked about some of the pointpsread issues for favorites in the BCS race in the colleges. Sunday and Monday in the pros, teams with the WORSE record entering the game went 7-4 against the spread. Outright winners/covers included Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Arizona, San Diego, and Cleveland. *History shows that short term success with favorites will eventually hit a wall. You may win for awhile when hot teams are at their best. They eventually cool off. The public loses more in that cool off period than they win when the going is good. See if you can find a way to protect what you’ve won instead of exposing yourself to a complete meltdown. *If you bet in Vegas or Reno, be careful with those parlay cards. They’re the secret weapon sportsbooks use to beat the public. The house can live with a loss to sharps if the win from the public is even greater. Those parlay cards make it possible. You wouldn’t believe how many parlay cards with teams like Minnesota, Washington, and Denver were in trash Sunday afternoon.
NEVADA SPORTSBOOKS HAVE HUGE WEEKEND KEYED BY INDY AND NFL UNDERDOGS
Most weeks you hear sportsbook operators in Las Vegas and Reno crying.
*If things went badly, they’re crying about it.
*If they broke even, they’re crying about it as if it went badly.
*If they won a little, they’re crying as if it went badly.
*If they won, they’re remembering an earlier bad week and crying about it.
*If they won BIG, they can’t keep the big smiles off their faces!
There are a lot of big smiles behind the counters at sportsbooks this week because the public lost big, AND the sharps lost big as well. This was particularly true in the NFL, though there was some big college action that went down in a few spots. Pro football is where the money came in:
*Baltimore was a very popular sharp play last week, particularly at the early numbers. I talked about this over the weekend, outlining how the line had fallen almost a field goal from the opener. The Ravens were literally never in the game. Indianapolis, a team that drove a spike through the hearts of oddsmakers the prior Sunday in Houston made it up to them with a blowout win. You don’t often see the sharps lose when the line moves this much. The sportsbooks were certainly celebrating that rare occurrence.
*Carolina was a popular play at the early number too in Tampa Bay. And, once that line came down, the Panthers were a popular play in teasers. The public usually teases big favorites down as “insurance.” Sharps use “basic strategy” of crossing the 3’s and 7’s whenever they can. Carolina was a qualifier there on paper, but lost on the field 27-3. Sharps tend to “round robin” their teaser teams. So, when a team loses, it doesn’t just cost them one bet…it costs them every bet containing that team. It’s also worth nothing that sharps like teasers even MORE when a game is expected to be a defensive struggle. Moving a line 6 points has more value when the over under is 37 than when it’s 47. Carolina hurt a lot of sharps bad.
*Minnesota, Houston, and Washington were all popular public favorites this week. Minnesota and Washington were going against Detroit and St. Louis. The public had made good money betting against those horrible teams this year. It came back to bite them Sunday though, as both ugly dogs almost won outright. A lot of parlay cards and public teaser bets went down with those results. Houston won straight up, but couldn’t cover its three point spread.
*Denver and Over was a popular play in late action, as everyone pictured that high octane offense posting a big result against the struggling Jacksonville defense. That didn’t happen either. Another popular parlay team bit the dust. Remember that late games have more betting action then early games. One result like this can make up for a bad morning from the casino’s perspective. When the morning went well…this kind of result is a home run.
*Monday Night, the books really cleaned up when Cleveland upset the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. Not only were the Giants a popular betting team for the public…but the Giants were in a lot of parlays and teasers. In fact, the Giants were probably the number one teaser team in Nevada and offshore because the public wanted the extra points for insurance…and the sharps were using basic strategy and bringing the line down across the 7 and the 3. Some seasoned professionals had also used the Giants in teasers for NEXT week. Those have lost already. What was supposed to be a bailout night for the public and the sharps turned into a one-night printing press for the sportsbooks.
The only tears this week for sportsbook operators are tears of joy. It’s been hard for them to remember a week THIS good where everything fell into place.
Are those guys the only ones smiling right now? No. Some players did very well too.
Old school sharps in particular scored big. Those guys love underdogs, particularly big underdogs. That means they were taking shots on Detroit and St. Louis while the public was loading up on the favorites. They were backing the big Monday Night home underdog in the final game of the weekend. If the old school guys needed a bailout because of other losses, they won. If they were up for the weekend because of their dog success, they pressed their winnings up and cashed a nice ticket.
Are there any lessons YOU can take from a week like this? I think there are several:
*First, remember that even professional wagerers have bad weeks. Those who focus on teasers did very well last year, but aren’t so happy about it this year. The past weekend was particularly tough on them because both Carolina and the NY Giants failed to get there. Most big teasers involved those teams because of the low game total in the first one, and the apparent statistical edges in the second. Don’t get too down on yourself after a bad week. The best of the sharps have bad weeks too.
*Remember that the betting markets often overrate the most highly regarded teams. My last article talked about some of the pointpsread issues for favorites in the BCS race in the colleges. Sunday and Monday in the pros, teams with the WORSE record entering the game went 7-4 against the spread. Outright winners/covers included Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Arizona, San Diego, and Cleveland. *History shows that short term success with favorites will eventually hit a wall. You may win for awhile when hot teams are at their best. They eventually cool off. The public loses more in that cool off period than they win when the going is good. See if you can find a way to protect what you’ve won instead of exposing yourself to a complete meltdown. *If you bet in Vegas or Reno, be careful with those parlay cards. They’re the secret weapon sportsbooks use to beat the public. The house can live with a loss to sharps if the win from the public is even greater. Those parlay cards make it possible. You wouldn’t believe how many parlay cards with teams like Minnesota, Washington, and Denver were in trash Sunday afternoon.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Unsolicited Testimonials
Here are a few unsolicited testimonials/recommendations I’ve copied from web forums or personal emails.
"Nice job on first day, received alerts in a timely manner, very professional. Looking forward to a very fun and profitable rest of the season."
"You've been on fire this year. I'm a 50/100 player and you've really helped me manage and build my bankroll."
"...thanks for the incomparable info the last few seasons."
“crunch your insight, capping, and play for play is something that I will miss alot. Your views alone with my thoughts made for me upping my game and ROI in the NFL. I know I'm speaking for a group of people that have been fortunate to read your posts that...we are disappointed to see you go. I wish you the best in pay for play and am sure your subscribers will be happy with the investment in you. Do your thing, hope to see you still post on peoples plays form time to time. Don't be a stranger.”
“Yo bro, your one of the best cappers here. You can't leave half way through the season.. but if you do much respect and always giving out quality picks through out the years.”
“Anyway, as always, good luck Crunch, and I hope you continue to make a bunch of people money while making your self a little more cash. One of the good guys in the business, I only wish you the best.”
“I'm fairly new to the forum but always respect creative and solid handicapping. You, sir, fit that definition.”
“Cruncher is as good as they get…I always love coming on here to see my picks matching up with yours. When they stray from what you have I almost instantly don't feel as good about them.”
“Thnx so much for your inputs, stats and #'s on the games....it is very valuable and very informed.”
“Cruncher has a billion plays but always comes out on the plus--so if you have the money and time, I would invest in him blindly, only person i would do it to... ever.”
“thanks for posting this information. it seems like a hell of a lot of work. had success last football season by playing the higher/highest % values on your board.”
“Great start cruncher.. Your threads are a must read…something tells me good weeks are going to be abundant for you.”
"Nice job on first day, received alerts in a timely manner, very professional. Looking forward to a very fun and profitable rest of the season."
"You've been on fire this year. I'm a 50/100 player and you've really helped me manage and build my bankroll."
"...thanks for the incomparable info the last few seasons."
“crunch your insight, capping, and play for play is something that I will miss alot. Your views alone with my thoughts made for me upping my game and ROI in the NFL. I know I'm speaking for a group of people that have been fortunate to read your posts that...we are disappointed to see you go. I wish you the best in pay for play and am sure your subscribers will be happy with the investment in you. Do your thing, hope to see you still post on peoples plays form time to time. Don't be a stranger.”
“Yo bro, your one of the best cappers here. You can't leave half way through the season.. but if you do much respect and always giving out quality picks through out the years.”
“Anyway, as always, good luck Crunch, and I hope you continue to make a bunch of people money while making your self a little more cash. One of the good guys in the business, I only wish you the best.”
“I'm fairly new to the forum but always respect creative and solid handicapping. You, sir, fit that definition.”
“Cruncher is as good as they get…I always love coming on here to see my picks matching up with yours. When they stray from what you have I almost instantly don't feel as good about them.”
“Thnx so much for your inputs, stats and #'s on the games....it is very valuable and very informed.”
“Cruncher has a billion plays but always comes out on the plus--so if you have the money and time, I would invest in him blindly, only person i would do it to... ever.”
“thanks for posting this information. it seems like a hell of a lot of work. had success last football season by playing the higher/highest % values on your board.”
“Great start cruncher.. Your threads are a must read…something tells me good weeks are going to be abundant for you.”
Friday, October 10, 2008
The New Subscriber Site Launches Oct. 19
A big announcement today: I will no longer be providing my lines and plays free of charge.
When I started seriously handicapping NFL football over 5 years ago, I never had the intention of becoming a "tout." Had that been the case I would've made the move years ago because I hit the ground running as a winner and have not come close to having a losing season even once.
This year, though, I had already decided to start a member website, the only question being whether it would be free for the remainder of the season or not.
If you're reading this you're probably aware of my phenomenal record through the first 5 weeks of this season. So yes, I see nothing wrong with seeking a little compensation for the money I've made for any who've followed me, and from those who were unfortunate enough to discover the value of my services only after I'd stopped giving it away for free for years, lol.
It has been an unprecedented run, and is in some part due to the very hard work I put into overhauling and improving my spreadsheet, and in some part due to luck as well. I've caught more than my fair share of bounces so far, whereas usually I feel like I win in spite of getting more bad breaks than good, lol.
A little more "touting" of my own record and abilities here before I list the services I'll be providing for a reasonable fee.
I’ve posted my NFL selections and lines for the 2000, and 2004 through the current 2008 seasons at TheRx.com (formerly theprescription.com). Feel free to ask anyone who’s been there for more than a few months what my reputation and record have been. An average season for me has typically seen about a 50% growth in a gambling bankroll, where my average bet size has typically been less than 1% of the bankroll per play. So there’s been extremely good capital growth with almost no risk. This season my bankroll is already approaching 50% growth with an average bet size of .84% of a unit per play.
How have I been able to consistently outperform the stock market (and oh, how disparate are our fortunes THIS season, lol) by a staggering amount? It’s not simple, but the simple answer is that I create sharper lines than the sportsbooks initially post and I bet the opening lines getting tremendous value on my plays before the market adjusts.
Even against closing lines my lines perform well, as evidenced by my record at thepredictiontracker.com last year and this year. I do what the sharps, syndicates, wise-guys – whatever you want to call them, also do. We all compete against each other for the early value on the lines. It’s the professional, winning method for sports betting. People have tracked my opening bets over the course of the season and seen how I’ve consistently been on the right side of line moves.
Two seasons ago I tracked publicly in my forum threads at TheRx my predictions for line moves at the very moment the lines were released. Suffice it to say, the final tally was a complete blowout when counting positive points when the line moved in the direction I predicted, and negative points when it moved the opposite way.
There will be the occasional game where a line moves a half or full point in the opposite way that I expect, but I beat the books to the punch on virtually every significant line move. I don’t have to rely on waiting until some of the value has been sucked out of a line to see which way the money is coming, which is a big advantage.
Are there any touts out there that don’t offer their plays later in the week into potentially dead lines? I don’t know. I’ve never followed a tout in spite of having respect for a few worthy handicappers that have marketed their services in the past.
When I started seriously handicapping NFL football over 5 years ago, I never had the intention of becoming a "tout." Had that been the case I would've made the move years ago because I hit the ground running as a winner and have not come close to having a losing season even once.
This year, though, I had already decided to start a member website, the only question being whether it would be free for the remainder of the season or not.
If you're reading this you're probably aware of my phenomenal record through the first 5 weeks of this season. So yes, I see nothing wrong with seeking a little compensation for the money I've made for any who've followed me, and from those who were unfortunate enough to discover the value of my services only after I'd stopped giving it away for free for years, lol.
It has been an unprecedented run, and is in some part due to the very hard work I put into overhauling and improving my spreadsheet, and in some part due to luck as well. I've caught more than my fair share of bounces so far, whereas usually I feel like I win in spite of getting more bad breaks than good, lol.
A little more "touting" of my own record and abilities here before I list the services I'll be providing for a reasonable fee.
I’ve posted my NFL selections and lines for the 2000, and 2004 through the current 2008 seasons at TheRx.com (formerly theprescription.com). Feel free to ask anyone who’s been there for more than a few months what my reputation and record have been. An average season for me has typically seen about a 50% growth in a gambling bankroll, where my average bet size has typically been less than 1% of the bankroll per play. So there’s been extremely good capital growth with almost no risk. This season my bankroll is already approaching 50% growth with an average bet size of .84% of a unit per play.
How have I been able to consistently outperform the stock market (and oh, how disparate are our fortunes THIS season, lol) by a staggering amount? It’s not simple, but the simple answer is that I create sharper lines than the sportsbooks initially post and I bet the opening lines getting tremendous value on my plays before the market adjusts.
Even against closing lines my lines perform well, as evidenced by my record at thepredictiontracker.com last year and this year. I do what the sharps, syndicates, wise-guys – whatever you want to call them, also do. We all compete against each other for the early value on the lines. It’s the professional, winning method for sports betting. People have tracked my opening bets over the course of the season and seen how I’ve consistently been on the right side of line moves.
Two seasons ago I tracked publicly in my forum threads at TheRx my predictions for line moves at the very moment the lines were released. Suffice it to say, the final tally was a complete blowout when counting positive points when the line moved in the direction I predicted, and negative points when it moved the opposite way.
There will be the occasional game where a line moves a half or full point in the opposite way that I expect, but I beat the books to the punch on virtually every significant line move. I don’t have to rely on waiting until some of the value has been sucked out of a line to see which way the money is coming, which is a big advantage.
Are there any touts out there that don’t offer their plays later in the week into potentially dead lines? I don’t know. I’ve never followed a tout in spite of having respect for a few worthy handicappers that have marketed their services in the past.
So here's what you'll get:
I will provide my subscribers with my lines and recommended plays at the very same time the lines are first opened up for betting.
That’s a big, big advantage over what even a legitimate handicapper usually provides. Anyone familiar with my betting knows that I’m a big volume, small risk player, frequently getting 50% of my bankroll into action on any given Sunday. It’s what the professionals do. I’ve added a link to the 2+2 sportsbetting forum that has an excellent FAQ section about the basics required to be a winning sports bettor, so that I don’t have to cover a lot of the same ground.
I’ll also be alerting my subscribers to plays that are recommended throughout the week based on line moves or injury updates.
Getting closer to game day, there’ll also be updates as more bets become available to play and any late plays based on anti-steam line moves.
I’ve been very successful with 2nd half plays since building a halftime line generator last year and will also be sending those plays out in time to be bet.
At the password protected blog for subscribers, I’ll be doing write-ups for all of the games in separate posts so that subscribers can ask questions or offer opinions on each game with my continued input throughout the week. A mini-forum, if you will.
The price for my years of work, unmatched winning record, and continued tireless efforts to build bankrolls? Hard to put a number on, lol, but I’m going to start with the extremely affordable price of 60$ for a four week blocks, just 15$ per week.
Most touts charge quite a bit more, don’t have a third of my ability, and spread their time amongst the many sports being played this year. And like I said, they almost always offer up their plays into stale lines.
Next year, who knows? I’ll have a full-fledged website up then with even more valuable information for serious handicappers, and maybe the prices will change, but I want to keep prices reasonable for even small players.
For medium to large players, what I offer for the price will probably be the biggest bargain you’ve ever seen in your life, other than the free services I’ve been offering up for years now, lol.
Just looking at the savings you’ll be making based on the line moves means my services are ridiculously cheap, regardless of the outcomes of the games (and yeah, you know my record when it comes to that, too).
I’ve always had more good weeks than bad weeks, but even in a non-winning week you can rest assured you got your money in the pot with the best odds.
If you have questions or wish to subscribe, contact me at the email listed here or at thesportscruncher@hotmail.com, and I’ll provide you with answers or paypal instructions, as that will be the only method of payment I’ll be accepting this year.
As always, my information and plays are for entertainment purposes only, and I accept no liability for any actions taken on anyone’s part as a result of my recommendations. Pretty sure I’ll always need this disclaimer thing at the bottom of my blog sites, lol.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Week #6
Killed it again in Week #5. The improvements I've made to my spreadsheet seem to be really dialing in the right sides so far. Going to post the link to my plays and thoughts to TheRx this week, as there's been more discussion there.
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