49ers @ Bills

The Bills broke a 4-game slide with a victory over the Chiefs last week – a reason for renewed hope? Yes and no. The return of Josh Reed at WR helped Trent Edwards to his career best passing day, but then again, it was against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Still, Trent Edwards was happy to take something positive away from a game for once, regardless of how it came. Their running game was so-so, with Marshawn Lynch averaging just under 4 yards per carry versus an extremely poor run defense.

Defensively, the only thing they did right was get 5 turnovers. They gave up 462 yards to a Chiefs’ offense that only learned how to do anything successfully a mere month ago. Without those turnovers the Bills are probable losers as they were outgained by the Chiefs. It was a good day for rookie CB Leodis McKelvin who had to fill in for the injured Jabari Greer. Coach Jauron has been hesitant to start McKelvin before, but had little choice here, and McKelvin had two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown. McKelvin also had a kickoff return for a touchdown 2 weeks ago versus Cleveland. Leodis was the 11th overall pick out of Troy last year. I wonder if anyone has ever been drafted in the top 10 out of Troy? The Bills run defense gave up 159 yards on only 13 carries as Larry Johnson busted off a 63 yarder.

The Bills have given up an average of 157 yards rushing over their last 3 games, all to teams that are pretty good at running the ball. The 49ers are only ranked a little lower in rush offense than the Bills’ past 3 opponents, in small part due to the horrendous day the 49ers had running the ball versus Dallas last week. The 49ers should rebound on the ground and also go for over a hundred yards rushing versus the Bills. As the Bills top defensive priority will be stopping Frank Gore, 49er QB Shaun Hill should find himself with little pressure in the pocket except for on obvious passing downs, which is when the Bills like to stand up out of their stance and wave their arms about crazily in an effort to intimidate opposing offenses. Mostly it’s just for show, though, as the Bills are 29th in the league in sacks per pass plays defensed, and 19th in pass defense. Shaun Hill is a pretty cool cat that can hang in the pocket and deliver the ball anyway.

49ers’ CB Nate Clements had a horrible day defensively guarding Terrell Owens last week. Clements, a high-priced CB, is supposed to be able to hold his own versus any top receiver, but got burned on 3 big plays where the play call didn’t have him jamming Terrell at the line of scrimmage. Clements has typically been a guy that likes to play off the receiver and bait the quarterback into throwing his way. In Buffalo he did that a lot simply because he was playing in a weak secondary where he felt more harm would be done if he guarded his man tightly, forcing the QB to throw against weaker parts of the secondary. I don’t know if it’s the luck of the bounce or what, but the 49ers have been one of the worst teams in the league this year at getting interceptions. I have a feeling they’ll get one or two off of Edwards this week, though. Edwards didn’t throw any picks after throwing 3 in the first half versus Cleveland the week before. He is often guilty of staring down his receivers, which could easily lead to some picks versus experienced route-hopping CBs Clements and Harris. Edwards figures to be in numerous obvious passing downs this game as the 49ers’ 8th ranked run defense should keep the Bills’ 27th ranked run offense in check on many plays.

In summary, the 49ers, because of the big edge they have in the running game, will find the passing lanes and pass rush far more open than the Bills will, propelling them to a road victory versus a Bills team primed to continue it’s backsliding after a one week respite versus the Chiefs.

Final Score Prediction: 49ers 23 – Bills 21