Week #17 Quality Control

Turnovers in all the wrong places this week. Both games with a -4 turnover ratio I had the other side for 1 unit, and in the 2 games with a +3 ratio I had only one of the sides bet for 2/3 of a unit. With the wind in Buffalo I nulled the total for record keeping by matching my projection to the closing line.

50% or better on both sides and totals again -- the results have been very consistent since making some serious changes that made the lines more dogcentric, though we've only had one huge week in terms of units won since doing so, as we've so often been on the wrong side of turnovers and big plays.

Still, it's been a fantastic season at +110 units (117 average sized bets) with a 10.45% ROI, which is almost unheard of.

Week #17 Plays & Results

We did really well on saving points versus line moves this week, only left holding the bag on one play, the NE/BUF Over 42 I made earlier in the week. I woke up on the West coast on Sunday morning to see the line had plummeted with the ridiculously strong winds that moved into Buffalo overnight. I capped the negative line movement for the tally at 3 points, as all of the line movement was associated with the turn of the weather, and not any inherent value on the Under in otherwise normal conditions.

Being on the right side of so many line moves did us little good this week, however, as they breaks went against us to a large degree. -8 turnover margin overall. The Patriots once again cooked my goose. The Bills actually outgained the Patriots, yet failed to score any points -- such are the fruits of an undisciplined team like the Bills. Their debacle at the end of the first half was truly a thing of horror -- failing to get off a field goal attempt with almost 30 seconds on the clock. If they get that field goal is breaks up the "No - 3 unanswered scores" string of scores that the Patriots had (only 3 total scores), making the 1 unit play a probable winner, a 2.6 unit swing. And the Bufs failing to cover the 7 point spread (I bought the hook from 6.5) after outgaining the Pats is another 2.2 unit swing -- et voila! The difference between a winning and losing week.

On the plus side the stronger plays of the week did very well - all 4 plays that were greater than 1 unit won (KC/CIN Over 37 lost, but I did have one unit on the Under 40 going for the middle).

After going 4 for 5 for +3.5 units on the "No - 3 Unanswered Scores" plays a couple of weeks ago, they didn't do well in week #17, going 1 for 5 and -1.725 units.

Week #16 Plays and Results

We'd been chugging along near even the last few weeks as we couldn't seem to buy many breaks. This week we had a near avalanche of breaks -- though two of the turnovers curried by teams I favored the spread ended up killing two plays. In both the TEN/PIT and SD/TB games I recommended the "No - 3 Unanswered Scores" prop play. The wager was winning in the TEN/PIT game until TEN returned an interception for a score with 16 seconds left in the game -- a play where the defender usually just slides to the ground 9 out of 10 times, so that was a bad beat and a 2.4 unit swing. The Chargers picked off Garcia and ran it back to kill the play with 2 or 3 minutes left in the game. Grr. Both of those plays went down in the early games, but they ended up being mere sacrifices to the incredible boon of good fortune in the later games, as we swept nearly every play in site. All in all, recommended subscriber plays ended up at +22.2 units, an incredible 4th time getting 20+ units in a week this season. Plays on totals had gone 10 for 10 until losing on the Over 40 on the Monday night game by 3 points.

Week #16 Quality Control

Great week on both sides and totals. We haven't had the turnover margin be in our favor for quite a while it seems -- I guess it was all saving up for week #16 and a +16 ratio. Can we hope for a +17 ratio in week #17, lol? The only major fiasco of the week was Arizona's absolute ineptitude in the snow. The only minor fiasco was the Cowboys and their inability to stop the Ravens in the 4th quarter.

Ravens @ Cowboys Week #16

Ravens @ Cowboys

As a lover of burgers and fries (in a mostly uncaring universe one of the few things to be grateful for this Holiday season is that this most delicious of meals is widely available and eminently affordable), I have newfound disdain for CB Frank Walker of the Ravens, for he committed sacrilege by spitting on the Berger last week. He and Mitch got into a scuffle near the end of last week’s game when Frank apparently attempted a cheap shot to kicker Reed’s leg. The lowly punter/holder defended his fellow non-fierce position playing teammate, and Walker garnished Berger with a fully hocked loogie for his efforts. Frank, you’re as dead to me as a Thanksgiving Turkey. Perhaps Frank’s frustration flourished at the end of the game because the Ravens were once again about to lose to a quality team. The Ravens this year have only 2 victories versus teams with a winning record.

On the ebb and flow chart, the Ravens are ebbing and the Cowboys are flowing. The Cowboys’ defense is stiffening up like a corn starched collar, while the Raven’s flaccid Flacco-led offense is wilting like a winter weed. I could name the numbers, but alluding alliteration makes taut the tale.

Ray Rice, Ravens’ RB, is very “?”, so it’ll be up to Mr. McClain to carry the load with Mr. McGahee finding the field for 3rd downs. No less than 3 starting offensive lineman for the Ravens’ saw limited practice time this week but will be starting regardless. The aforementioned Frank Walker was cursed by karma with a semi-crippled calf for his uncouth projectile “cough,” and SS Ed Reed didn’t practice all week as well to save himself for the game. The Ravens’ secondary is really not in the best shape right now to be facing a team with as many threats as the Cowboys. When Samari “1 wheel short of a full” Rolle is the healthiest guy in your secondary, it’s a cause for concern.

Tony Romo practiced fully on Thursday and claims no ill-effects from the knee to the back he took last week. Marion Barber and his bad toe are “?”, so the choice may continue to be more runs for Tashard. The Cowboys’ defense, sans the sordid sustaination of injuries at safety this season, are healthy. Even Pacman Jones has had a Christmas miracle recovery and will be available for this game.

The Ravens’ offense is ill-equipped for late game comebacks, while the Cowboys’ defense is perfectly suited for punishing panicky pass-happy offenses, as they demonstrated versus the Giants’ last week. Last week’s Cowboys’ game was a blueprint for this week’s possible last game ever in the Cowboy’s current confines.

The Cowboys were a recommended play when the line dipped to -4, but are still worth a weaker wager at the current -5.5.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 16 – Cowboys 24

COLTS @ JAGUARS WEEK #16

The Jag Offense came alive last week versus the Packers. Garrard had a better than 100 QB rating versus a good but fading Green Bay pass defense. In that game they only ran the ball 18 times in spite of never trailing by more than 6 points, which is uncharacteristic for the Jaguars. Surely the fresh absence of Fred Taylor and their “nothing to lose” standing contributed to their decision to attack the Packers through the air even though the Packers’ run defense is their weakness. Backward thinking by the Jags got them the win, nevertheless. Perhaps the Packers were stacking the box and the Jags were merely taking advantage. With WRs Jerry Porter out and Matt Jones suspended, Dennis Northcutt had a big game going for 5 catches and well over a hundred yards. Suddenly the Jags have a deep threat.

The Colts’ defense is rather similar to the Packers – good at defending the pass and porous against the run. I suspect the Jaguars will utilize the play action quite a bit to penalize Indy for keeping many defenders close to the line of scrimmage. Indy has little choice, though, as they have to stop the run first.

The Colts’ offense should be incredibly pass-happy in this game. Addai is just coming back from injury, and a couple of their offensive lineman will be dinged up but playing. Hurt linemen typically fare better pass blocking than run blocking. Regardless, Manning and Co. will look to abuse the Jags’ secondary early and often. With cornerback Rashean Mathis lost for the year, the Jags are forced to put Brian Williams back into the starting role at cornerback, and the Colts completed every pass they threw against him last year when he was playing cornerback. Other than the secondary, the rest of the Jags’ defense is in okay shape. The front 7 have seen a few revolving injuries since about week #3 this season, and then veteran LB Mike Peterson was benched a few weeks ago after a tiff with head coach Del Rio. 2nd year LB Justin Durant got a starting job on the outside and Daryl Smith was moved inside when Peterson was sent to the doghouse. Now that Smith is lost for the year Peterson returns to the middle. Paul Spicer out at DE is the lone man missing from the front 4 that started the season.

Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities that will allow the opponent opportunities to exploit the necessary defensive adjustments. The Jags should find plenty of holes in the secondary, while the Colts should find ample running lanes or a lot of short passes to Addai that can quickly turn into decent gains. That being said, I think the Colts will still have a hard time running the ball even with the Jags defending the pass first, as the Colts are plain awful running the ball – the worst in the league by my rankings. The Jags, meanwhile, are near league average passing the ball, ranked 16th, so overall they’re better suited to take what the defense gives them.

The Colts are playing pretty good football, having won their last 7, but they haven’t exactly passed through murderer’s row, as none of their last 5 opponents, the Texans, Chargers, Browns, Bengals and Lions, has a winning record. They let the toothless Lions hang around well into the 2nd half last week at home. Only 3 times this season have the Colts beat a team by more than 6 points, and none of those have been on the road. I say look for more of the same this Thursday night. This essentially being a playoff game for the Colts means they shouldn’t be easing up offensively regardless of the score until very late in the contest, so I like the Over 44 as well. Weather conditions in Jacksonville Thursday night will be ideal.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 24 – Jaguars 21

Week #15 Plays & Results

Down 6.6 units this week, purely biggest the majority of the big plays lost, lol. On several games I had the opportunity to buy back for some small middles but let everything ride -- doubling up ending up being doubling down in most instances. Two of my strongest plays, the Raiders and Cardinals, both found themselves down 21-0 at some point during the first quarter, lol. I did salvage a little with halftime bets on both of them, but another 2 unit play on the Under 47 in the ARI/MIN game ended up losing by one point after Minny's improbabe, aided by 2 huge plays start.

An excellent week on props saved the week from being really bad. I went 4 of 5 on the "No - 3 Consecutive Scores by a Team" plays, and those were all a minimum of +140 juice, so it was a nice return, including a fairly easy one unit on the BAL/PIT game. MNF then saw a sweep on props with 4 wins and 1 push, including a strong 2 unit play on PHI -5.5 first downs. They ended up about 10 first downs up, and it was never in jeapordy heading down the stretch.

Still it was a losing week, something I hate and fortunately don't have to suffer through many of, lol.

Week #15 Quality Control

I made all games where my line was within a point on either the side a total a "PUSH" instead of affecting my percentages by being narrowly on one side or the other of a decision. It actually hurt my % on totals this week, as I made 3 wins and 1 loss a push as a result. Crummy luck on sides this week, and it showed up on the bottom line.

Patriots @ Raiders Week #15

Patriots @ Raiders “Riding the Fade Train”

The Patriots’ Fade Train has paid off handsomely the last two weeks, with neither game receiving so much as a scare down the 4th quarter stretch. The Steelers outscored the Patriots 23-0 in the 2nd half for a convincing 23 point victory as small road dogs, while the Patriots had to score the last 11 points of the game last week at Seattle just to win the game, which didn’t result in a cover for them, as the line went from an opener of near 4 points up to an unbelievable 7.5 before kickoff (and no, Seneca Wallace starting at QB didn’t come even close to justifying that kind of line move as he had a hell of a good day, garnering a 129 passer rating versus Cassel’s 84). On the strength of these last two wins, the Patriots’ Fade Train I’ve been riding since week #3 is firmly in the black. It’s humorous, but true – I’ve bet against the Patriots in every game since backing them as dogs versus the Jets in week #2. Last year with all of the inflated spreads it was almost the same story: betting against the Patriots every week. Last year we were initially punished as the Patriots continued to cover the large spreads for a while, but we got it all back and then some as I believe they only covered one game for something like the final third of their season.

Not all stops on the Fade Train are appealing as others. The station in Oakland is decrepit from the abuse that visiting teams often inflict on the lowly Raiders. Wandering through this graffiti covered, mystery stained, reeking mostly of what would have to be guessed as stale urine train station can leave one wondering if perhaps this is the week to take a Greyhound bus and just hope that someone doesn’t decapitate you and feast on your skull mid trip (true story for those of you who didn’t see the story in the news earlier this year, lol). Well, pull up your Dickies, put on your Carhart overalls, and lace up your Timberlands, because we are not about to get off the Patriots’ Fade Train this week.

An opening caveat: The Raiders this year may be the worst first half team in the history of the NFL! They’ve only scored one offensive touchdown in the first half in 13 games this season. They’ve been outscored by their special teams unit who have a punt and kick return touchdown in the first half. Slow starts have been incredibly damaging to the Raiders’ hopes of winning many games, and not just for the obvious reason that the team with more points wins, lol. The Raiders are, of course, a run-first team. They do it moderately well. They are not, by any stretch of the imagination, a passing team. They have the worst pass offense in the league. They could attack an unsuspecting nudist colony and still lose the ensuing battle, such is their lack of weapons in the passing game. Not once this season have they been able to overcome a deficit of any number in the second half for a win, such is the impotency of their passing game. The key, therefore, will be for them to keep the game close so they can run the ball effectively and have a believable play action. Here’s why they should be able to…

The Patriots will be heavily favoring the run themselves this week. The weak half of the Raiders’ defense is their run defense, and teams have exploited that all season long. The Raiders have only once kept a team below 100 yards rushing this season, and that was in week #2 at Kansas City, a game which the Raiders led pretty much from wire to wire, which also happened to be only game in which a Raiders’ opponent ran the ball less than 20 times. The Patriots have done a pretty good job running on any but the top tier run defenses.

Matt Cassel’s father tragically passed away, and Matt just returned to practice on Thursday, leaving him not much time to prep for a good pass defense. Every game is of critical importance for the Patriots’ playoff chances, so I expect the Patriots to employ a mostly conservative passing game to complement their running game. Wes Welker will get his usual dozen short catches or so, lol.

The Patriots’ defense is starting to look like a halftime “Let’s honor the old players” program. Junior Seau, Roosevelt Colvin, shoot…I’m not even going to blink twice if I see Troy Brown at cornerback at some point during the game. The injuries started in the secondary, crept up into the linebacking corps and have now infected the defensive line. The result? 134 yards of rushing for the Seahawks last week. The Patriots really need Vince Wilfork back at nose tackle this game, and he’s still “?” after leaving last game with an injury and not returning. Either way, players playing injured can only be lower than their optimal level, not better.

As the game should be played pretty close to the vest, with scoring hopefully not coming in fits or bunches for the Patriots (though the Raiders can certainly yak up a bunch via botched special teams plays or turnovers), I’m thinking they keep the game close enough so they aren’t limited to 15 rushes like they were versus the Chargers last week. The Raiders, on rare occasion, have also been known to throw a nice play action pass for good yards, and they should have numerous opportunities to do so in this game. Versus an injury plagued defense that will be looking to stop the run first, the Raiders really, really need to take advantage with the passing game to keep the Patriots’ defense honest. As bad as the Raiders’ passing game has been, I think they’ll be able to do enough in this game.

Darren McFadden is mostly back from injury, but he had only one carry for no gain last week. So is he really healed up? I don’t know. Left tackle lame Kwame Harris has finally been benched, and Mario Henderson will get the start again, and the offense has been better with Mario. The Raiders’ wide receiving corps has had injuries of their own this season. Rumor has it the Raiders will use a two tight end set more this week for both running and passing plays. JaMarcus Russell will be sporting a gimpy ankle this week, and his mobility at times is a more dangerous weapon than his arm. The Patriots may dial up a little more pressure early and test that ankle to see how it’s holding up.

To conclude: The Patriots are on the West coast for a second consecutive week, late in the season when fatigue begins to be a factor, with a defense comprised of many aging and/ or reactivated veterans. Current Patriots/ex Raiders Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan will have a little extra motivation this game – it remains to be seen if the Raiders’ defense will be a little extra motivated to shut them down. I think they will be motivated – not just to shut down the former players, but the entire Patriots’ team, because they are the Patriots, after all, and they and their hated coach have had large targets on their backs for many years running now. I think a few big run and pass plays propel the home team to victory. Once we’re sitting comfortably again on he Patriots’ Fade Train counting our cash we’ll laugh at how the poor conditions of the Oakland station didn’t turn out to be so bad after all.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 20 – Raiders 21

The play was recommended to subscribers at +7.5 when the line opened. The line is currently +6.5 at most shops. In spite of my upset optimism, I’d buy the hook up to +7 if necessary, which is always a good move for the usual 10 cents.

SAINTS @ BEARS Week #15

If there is one person Drew Brees perpetually has a step on in football, it’s Kyle Orton. Orton followed in Brees’ footsteps to Purdue University and then to the NFL, but he’s never been able to put up passing numbers anywhere near those of Brees. Luckily for Orton, he hasn’t had to carry the team on his shoulders as the Bears have equaled the Saints’ 7-6 record with a better defense.

One might think that the Bears have the vastly superior run game, but the gap in quality is pretty close right now with both squads well below average. Not only that, both teams have had a soft run-defense schedule. The Bears have had the 23rd ranked toughest run defense schedule, while the Saints have had the 31st, one shy of the easiest schedule. Not so good for either team, with the small nod going to the Bears as teams have been able to key on their run game more than anyone dares to do versus the Saints’ passing offense. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combined for 182 rushing yards last week versus an admittedly poor Falcons’ run defense. Nobody puts 8 men in the box versus the Saints unless it’s a down & very short distance situation, and the Saints are taking advantage by running the ball more and more. Yes, Reggie Bush is back, which means Deuce McCallister is relegated to nothing more than an occasional 3rd and inches play, lol.

The Bears’ run defense won’t be getting any extra help this game, so expect the Saints to utilize a balanced offense that will keep the Bears’ defense on it’s heels all game, as they need the Bears to respect the run enough to maximize their success with the play action pass. The Bears’ will be relying on their front four to get pressure on Drew Brees, so don’t expect a lot of blitzes from them as they’re well aware that Brees is possibly the best quarterback in the league at getting rid of the ball when facing pressure. If their defensive line doesn’t get to Brees they’ll just be crossing their fingers and hoping that they have enough passing lanes clogged with defenders to break up passes or get interceptions, as Brees isn’t gun shy and will almost always throw the ball instead of taking a sack, and the Bears have been better at getting interceptions than sacking quarterbacks this year. The Bears’ defense has good reason to be very nervous in this game, as they’re just not solid enough defending the pass to get too creative.

The Bears have a below average 25th ranked run offense, and their pass offense is slightly worse at 26th. This is a good match up for the Saints’ defense. They got off to a poor start this season and have had to deal with a few injuries, but they’re back to near 100% up front and it’s showing up in their performances. In 6 of their last 9 games the Saints’ defense has held opponent’s to under 4 yards per carry, and some of those came versus some very good run teams – the Vikings, the Panthers, and the Falcons twice, all top 10 run offenses, and versus the Packers (15th) and Raiders (17th). The Bears are far below these teams.

Can Kyle Orton and the passing game compensate for the average at best run day the Bears can expect to have? Once again, the trends indicate that no, they will not. The Saints’ pass defense also struggled early in the season but has shown a lot of improvement as the defense has gelled as a complete unit. In precisely half of their last 8 games has a team thrown for more than 5.4 yards per pass versus the Saints – twice by the Falcons (ranked 5th), once by the Chargers (ranked 2nd), and once by the Panthers (ranked 8th), so only very good passing offenses are having success versus the Saints, and those were all games in which the Saints keyed on the opponent’s run offenses with pretty good success.

While the Saints’ defense has been improving, the same can’t be said for the Bears’ offense. Since week 3 they’ve only had two games in which they’ve gone above the opponent’s average allowed yards per run, once versus the abysmal Rams, and two weeks ago versus a good Vikings’ run defense, but they were playing from a double-digit deficit for the entire second half. Not since week #7 have they thrown for more yards per pass than an opponent usually allows, a very poor span of 6 consecutive games, 5 of which saw them throw for less than 5 yards per pass attempt.

In spite of their equal 7-6 records, these are really teams moving in opposite directions right now. Speaking of week #7, that was the last time the Bears beat a team with a winning record, the Vikings. Over the last 6 games the Bears have been outscored by more than 3 points per game, while the Saints have outscored their opponent’s by 4, and with a tougher schedule to boot.

Clearly, the wrong team is favored in this game and the cold weather alone won’t be enough to slow down and stop the Saints from winning a key game in the wildcard race. Drew Brees works harder than any other quarterback in the league in preparing for each game, and on a short week that may be an even bigger advantage he has versus Kyle Orton, who will once again be following in Drew’s wake after this game.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 24 – Bears 20

Week #14 Plays & Results

Week #14 started off sour on the Thursday night game, was doing very well on Sunday until the Cowboys' late meltdown, faded a little more on Sunday night, and left us +1.8 units for the week. Beats losing, I guess. More bad luck than good usually means modest winning weeks, as my losing weeks are few and far between.

Week #14 Quality Control Table

The dogs should've covered almost every game this week when grading by yards and yards per play, but being dogs, failed to do so on several games. A sub-par week on totals as we just missed a couple of the bigger plays by one point.

49ers @ Bills

The Bills broke a 4-game slide with a victory over the Chiefs last week – a reason for renewed hope? Yes and no. The return of Josh Reed at WR helped Trent Edwards to his career best passing day, but then again, it was against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Still, Trent Edwards was happy to take something positive away from a game for once, regardless of how it came. Their running game was so-so, with Marshawn Lynch averaging just under 4 yards per carry versus an extremely poor run defense.

Defensively, the only thing they did right was get 5 turnovers. They gave up 462 yards to a Chiefs’ offense that only learned how to do anything successfully a mere month ago. Without those turnovers the Bills are probable losers as they were outgained by the Chiefs. It was a good day for rookie CB Leodis McKelvin who had to fill in for the injured Jabari Greer. Coach Jauron has been hesitant to start McKelvin before, but had little choice here, and McKelvin had two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown. McKelvin also had a kickoff return for a touchdown 2 weeks ago versus Cleveland. Leodis was the 11th overall pick out of Troy last year. I wonder if anyone has ever been drafted in the top 10 out of Troy? The Bills run defense gave up 159 yards on only 13 carries as Larry Johnson busted off a 63 yarder.

The Bills have given up an average of 157 yards rushing over their last 3 games, all to teams that are pretty good at running the ball. The 49ers are only ranked a little lower in rush offense than the Bills’ past 3 opponents, in small part due to the horrendous day the 49ers had running the ball versus Dallas last week. The 49ers should rebound on the ground and also go for over a hundred yards rushing versus the Bills. As the Bills top defensive priority will be stopping Frank Gore, 49er QB Shaun Hill should find himself with little pressure in the pocket except for on obvious passing downs, which is when the Bills like to stand up out of their stance and wave their arms about crazily in an effort to intimidate opposing offenses. Mostly it’s just for show, though, as the Bills are 29th in the league in sacks per pass plays defensed, and 19th in pass defense. Shaun Hill is a pretty cool cat that can hang in the pocket and deliver the ball anyway.

49ers’ CB Nate Clements had a horrible day defensively guarding Terrell Owens last week. Clements, a high-priced CB, is supposed to be able to hold his own versus any top receiver, but got burned on 3 big plays where the play call didn’t have him jamming Terrell at the line of scrimmage. Clements has typically been a guy that likes to play off the receiver and bait the quarterback into throwing his way. In Buffalo he did that a lot simply because he was playing in a weak secondary where he felt more harm would be done if he guarded his man tightly, forcing the QB to throw against weaker parts of the secondary. I don’t know if it’s the luck of the bounce or what, but the 49ers have been one of the worst teams in the league this year at getting interceptions. I have a feeling they’ll get one or two off of Edwards this week, though. Edwards didn’t throw any picks after throwing 3 in the first half versus Cleveland the week before. He is often guilty of staring down his receivers, which could easily lead to some picks versus experienced route-hopping CBs Clements and Harris. Edwards figures to be in numerous obvious passing downs this game as the 49ers’ 8th ranked run defense should keep the Bills’ 27th ranked run offense in check on many plays.

In summary, the 49ers, because of the big edge they have in the running game, will find the passing lanes and pass rush far more open than the Bills will, propelling them to a road victory versus a Bills team primed to continue it’s backsliding after a one week respite versus the Chiefs.

Final Score Prediction: 49ers 23 – Bills 21

Week #12 Quality Control

Funny week on totals, as even though I hit 75% across the board I was only up 1 unit on the plays. Of the 4 stat estimated totals in which my original projections were wrong, 2 of those I actually bet and won on. 2 of my strongest Unders, 2 unit plays, lost in actuality though they should've covered. In fact, not a single Under that I bet last week should've lost, though 3 of them did. Even the NO/GB game, oddly enough, should've gone Under the 53.5 opening line by a few points. Turnovers, short fields from returns, and insane red zone production pushed that one way over the total, unfortunately. So yeah, funny week as a couple of the 1 unit plays won that shouldn't have, while a couple of the bigger plays lost that should've won.

On sides it was more bad luck than good, as once again I managed to bet on a few teams that outgained their opponents in straight up losses. On the turnover ratio I was -6, mostly due to the -5 ratio in 2 separate games -- both of which happened to be featured write up games that went horribly wrong. The Eagles did indeed suck, but by yards and yards per play they should've only lost by a couple of points, while the Chiefs in fact should've beat the Bills. The Cardinals, Panthers and Chargers also outgained their opponents in losing causes.

Week #12 Plays & Results

Eagles @ Ravens

The Eagles have been the laughing stock of the NFL this week. Not only did they barely hang on to a tie versus the Bengals, a team they should have shredded, but QB Donovan McNabb admitted to not understanding the overtime rule as implemented during the regular season. For the humiliation suffered on both accounts you have to figure the Eagles to be coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder.

The Ravens’ defense likes to present itself as big, bad and scary, but last week the Giants took a giant sized Edgar Allen Poe right on their heads, rushing for over 200 yards. The week before that the Texans ran the ball for a spiffy 4.7 yards per carry against them. Sure, the Ravens still have the 4th highest rated run defense by my numbers, but they’re no impregnable fortress, as the last two weeks have shown. Against the pass I have the Ravens’ defense ranked 11th, but that’s mostly on the back of some really good defensive games early in the season. In their last 6 games, they’ve only held one team to under 6 yards per pass attempt, and that team was the dreadful Raiders. As a matter of fact, the Ravens have given up 6.8 yards per attempt on average for their last 6 games.

The Ravens’ backsliding defense now hosts an unfavorable match up with the Eagles’ offense. The Eagles have been below average running the ball all year, but have an offense that doesn’t need to run it much to win. The Eagles in their last two games have faced a pass defense ranked better than the Ravens, the Giants, and one that’s only slightly worse, the Bengals, who’ve played equally well versus the pass over their last 6 games by comparison. I mention these last two opponents because the Eagles underperformed throwing the ball versus these two teams, averaging 5.45 yards per pass. In their four games prior to that they’d averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt. At worst, the Eagles should get near 6 yards per pass attempt, and I project them to do much better than that at 6.9 yards per pass attempt as the Ravens’ secondary has been getting progressively more injured over the course of the season, while the Eagles’ offense has been getting healthier (with the exception of Pro Bowl guard Shaun Andrews who has been out for quite a few weeks now).

The Eagles should have their fair share of offensive success with the pass and score some points. Will the Ravens be able to match their success offensively? The answer appears to be no, as the Ravens lack the majestic presence in the sky to match the Eagles. Joe Flacco is, by all measures, a success story this year, but you need to look at his individual performances to see the real picture here, and the picture is this: Flacco can pass on poor pass defenses, but not on good ones. Okay, it’s a pretty simple picture – one that a slow kindergartner could have sketched in a few minutes, but it’s the truth. Flacco has yet to throw for over 6 yards per pass attempt versus an above average pass defense this year. Not only do the Eagles have the 9th ranked pass defense, they’re number one at sacking opposing quarterbacks, and Flacco has been known to take his share of sacks. Heck, even the Browns sacked him twice, and they don’t sack anybody. The Texans, a below average pass rushing team, dropped him 3 times two games ago. The Giants only got him once last game, but Flacco threw 2 interceptions, so any game planning that involved taking less sacks may have directly translated into throwing more interceptions. The Ravens will likely be without starting left tackle Jared Gaither this week, and may slide right tackle Adam Terry over to take his place. Offensive line shuffling is rarely a good thing, even less so versus a team that brings the kind of pressure the Eagles do.

Can the Ravens pick up the slack by running the ball? Not likely. The Eagles’ run defense seems to have a threshold that causes opponent’s run offenses to slide pretty sharply to one side or the other. Most good running teams have gained about 5 yards per carry versus them, while average to poor running teams only go for about 2.8. Even a normally good running team like the Falcons only gained 3.2 yards per carry on them. The Ravens are just average running the ball, and the Eagles will be defending the run first as long as the game is within reach for either side, so except the Ravens’ yards per carry to be at the lower end of the threshold.

Ravens’ coach John Harbaugh spent 10 years as a coach with the Eagles prior to taking the head coaching position this year. Will familiarity be an advantage for him and his team? Maybe a little, but not enough to alter the spread for the game (unless they prove otherwise, lol).

In summary, the Ravens and rookie Joe Flacco will have a hard time gaining yards and points versus the Eagles’ stingy defense – a tricky blitzing defense known to give fits to inexperienced quarterbacks. The Eagles’ passing game should have enough success to win the game even if the running game gets shelved somewhere along the way.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – Ravens 17

Bills @ Chiefs Week #12

Week #12 finds the Bills, who started the season 5-1, at 5-5, which the simple math will tell you is a 4 game losing streak, including one loss a piece to each of their divisional foes. A real cause for concern has been the steadily declining play of QB Trent Edwards, who instead of looking like a Stanford graduate looks more like someone cramming for his GED in between offensive series. Last Monday night versus the Browns he seemed completely unsure of where and when to throw the ball even with the 4-alligator pass rush count the Browns were giving him. 2 of the 3 interceptions he threw on his first 6 pass attempts were clearly his fault. Still, the Bills had a chance to win the game with a makeable field goal at the end (wide right!) because the Browns have continued under Brady Quinn to be goal line teases, only 25th best at converting in the red zone.

This week the Bills are on the road at Kansas City. As bad as the Kansas City defense has been, it’s really not much worse than the Browns at this juncture, so there’s little reason to be optimistic that the Bills’ offense will suddenly return to early season form even though facing one of the worst defenses in the league. They had 20 points scored on offense versus the Browns and should get very near the same amount this week. In their favor is the fact that the Chiefs’ special teams coverage hasn’t been special so there’s a chance of a kick return score just like they had versus the Browns.

The most notable absences in the Chiefs’ defensive starting line up will be linebackers Donnie Edwards and Pat Thomas. The Bills’ defensive injuries include safety Donte Whitner (out) and safety Bryan Scott (questionable) which means there’s a 50% chance that the Bills will have 2 second stringers starting at safety this game. Their best (and looking like only at this point) pass rusher, Aaron Schobel, will be out again as well.

Offensively, the Bills will more than likely get starting WR Josh Reed back. If he’s near 100% I guess we’ll find out how much better the Buffalo passing game is with him back in the line up, as Hardy was ineffectual in replacing him and was benched in favor of Steve Johnson who played solidly with 3 receptions last game. #1 Receiver Lee Evans didn’t have a single catch on Monday night. Injuries along the offensive line have been doing no favors to the Bills as well, but those ailments seem to be clearing up. Honestly, this game is shaping up to be the litmus test as to whether Trent Edwards continues as the Bills’ QB of the future, because the grumbling in Buffalo is getting louder every week. If Edwards can’t get it done with his offense healthy versus a bottom-dwelling defense I don’t see how a full-blown QB controversy will not exist with this team once again.

The Chiefs, well aware that they have a largely non-existent pass rush with only 6 sacks on the year will do the same thing defensively that the Browns did -- rush 3 or 4 players while disguising coverages and hope Trent Edwards continues to make mistakes. The Chiefs, in spite of their poor record, have been really good at getting turnovers this year.

Offensively, the momentum the Chiefs have been building since Tyler Thigpen became the default QB starter and the spread offense he’s comfortable with running should continue in this game. In the spread with 2 tight ends lined up as receivers they’ve still been able to run quite a bit and their run game has improved dramatically facing defensive fronts forced to stretch themselves thinner from sideline to sideline. 3 of these 4 games have been without Larry “The Loogie” Johnson, as well. He returned last week and the Chiefs had another solid running game versus the Saints. The Chiefs’ passing game did have its’ worst outing in 4 weeks last game, but they should bounce back nicely this week versus an average Buffalo pass defense. WR Mark Bradley is listed as “?” though, for what it’s worth. Offensively, the Chiefs are playing better than the Bills in both facets right now, and if you can say that one team of two who have both lost their last 4 games has any kind of momentum, it’s the Chiefs.

The Bills are at a disadvantage coming in on a short week of rest, preparation and travel to face an offense unlike anything else they’ve seen this year. If the Chiefs can limit the Bills to good, but not multiple great kick returns Sunday (which won’t be easy, truthfully) I like their new found balanced offensive success to propel them to a home victory.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 21 – Chiefs 23

Texans @ Browns Week #12

“Defenseless” – The Week 12 Movie Starring the Texans and Browns

When the Browns’ 25th ranked rush defense is the highest ranking group of the Browns’ and Texans’ combined rush and pass defenses, you know you’re not going to sit down to a game of field position in Cleveland come Sunday. The Browns’ 29th ranked pass defense, and the Texans’ 26th ranked run defense and 27th ranked pass defense all at least share the honor of not being amongst the 3 lowest rated groups in the league. Both teams are known for poor tackling. If football were fishing these two teams would return home after 30 minutes of unsuccessfully trying to open the tackle box, without a single cast into the water.

Having quickly established that defense will not be at a premium, which offense will best capitalize on the capitulating defenses? Curtly, the Texans. Both teams have excellent run offenses this year, the Texans ranked 5th and the Browns 4th. Both teams are starting quarterbacks who were not the starters at the beginning of the year. The Texans, because of injury. The Browns, because of “What the Hell, we suck this year so we might as well see what Brady Quinn can do.” Both replacements have been pretty good so far, though Sage Rosenfels has been far more careless with the ball, though he does throw for a much higher yards per pass. The Texans throw (by my rescored stats) for 7.3 yards per pass, while the Browns throw for 5.8. That’s a pretty significant advantage, and one I’ll bet on.

Not only do the Texans have the advantage in the passing game, they should have the advantage in the running game for a couple of reason. One, Jerome Harrison, the quick back who’s had some big runs for the Browns this season, including a 72 yarder for a touchdown versus the Bills last week, is freshly injured and is looking doubtful for this week. That takes away the one two punch the Browns have utilized successfully this year with Jamal Lewis. The Texans have developed their own successfully running back combo with the speedy rookie Steve Slaton and the “I can’t believe he’s not still injured” short yardage back Ahman Green. The Texans rested Slaton a couple of weeks ago versus the Ravens as the rookie was starting to tire out some, and he came back fresh with a big game versus the Colts last week, getting 150+ on the ground.

With a better backfield, more experienced quarterback (keep the turnovers down please, Sage) and equally poor defenses, I like the Texans to get their first road victory of the season this week. On a side note, the Texans do have the worst red zone defense in the league, but Quinn is yet to show a consistent ability to crack the goal line when near it, as the compressed field is generally the toughest place for inexperienced quarterbacks to play well. The Texans are more successful than the Browns in the red zone, so it should balance out pretty evenly.

In spite of the poor defenses and the title of this write up, I don’t like this game to go Over 50 points as both teams figure to run quite a bit. It only takes a few clock-grinding drives ending in short field goals to keep a game under 50 barring multiple large special teams or defensive plays/scores. That being said, I sure as shinola wouldn’t take the Under either, as this game is as likely as any to go for 50 or 60 points this week.

Final Score Prediction: Texans 24 – Browns 23

Week #12 Bengals @ Steelers

Let me start this by saying that I think the zebras (If they’re to be nicknamed after animals, maybe we should start calling them dodos instead? Honestly, I look forward to the day when refs are no longer needed in any sport, as microchip, laser and video technology should remove the human-error officiating element from sporting events in the glorious future I envision!) will have a great enthusiasm for favoring Pittsburgh with their calls. After last Sunday’s debacle they’d like to leave town safely instead of finding themselves at the bottom of any one of three conveniently located rivers. I personally don’t want to re-regrade a losing bet on Pittsburgh again. Oh the joy of getting the miracle cover (though it should have been an easy cover as Pittsburgh dominated offensively but couldn’t score touchdowns), only to come back minutes later and find a touchdown taken off the board! So yeah, I don’t think we’ll see a 13-1 penalty calls against Pittsburgh disparity this week, unless, of course, they earn them.

I’m confident the Bengals will earn more than one flag, and I’m almost certain they’ll be called for offensive holding at least 2-3 times in this game. The Bengals have obviously not had much to be positive about this season, getting off to an 0-3 start versus very good teams while Carson Palmer was QB, and then going 1-5-1 after Fitzpatrick replaced him. Fitzpatrick has shown some improvement, earning a passer rating a little shy of 90 over his last two games. One thing the Bengals were grateful for, up until last week, was the health of their offensive line. Heading into week #11, the Bengals had started the same 5 on the offensive line all season. Statistically, offensive line continuity is a big plus for any team. Now the Bengals don’t even have that going for them, as both left tackle Levi Jones and left guard Andrew Whitworth were injured last week and are looking doubtful for Thursday. That means just promoted from the practice squad Nate Livings could start at left guard and rookie Anthony Collins could start at left tackle. Ummm, yeahhhh, it’s not looking good for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blindside versus the best and #1 most sack-happy defense in the league. Speaking of technology, I think Ryan’s looking into installing a surveillance camera on the left side of his helmet today. Plus there’s the added stress of it being a road game for him under the spotlights of a nationally televised game. So yes, I foresee an offensive holding or three in this game for the Bengals.

So, offensively it looks like the Bengals will be hard pressed to get the 13.8 points per game they’ve been averaging this year. Still, they’ve got that talented trio of receivers and it only takes a few big plays in a game to get into scoring range a few times, so my numbers have them getting 13 points in this game in spite of the injuries to their offensive line.

The Steelers, for their part, are highly motivated to find the endzone multiple times this week, as they’re currently experiencing a touchdown drought of over 6 quarters in length. The good news is that it hasn’t been due to a lack of yards, so that variance should flatten out with them scoring a minimum of three touchdowns in this game barring a serious downgrade in the weather forecast. They’ll almost certainly have lots of opportunities to do so, as they should fine themselves with good field position to begin many drives. The Bengals should have numerous punts from deep in their own territory which should set the Steelers up near mid-field. The Steelers should have offensive success even when facing a long field ahead of them. In the first match up of these two teams in week #7 the Steelers were without RB Willie Parker. He and the Steelers’ run game got off to a slow start this season in part due to injuries along the offensive line. Those offensive line injuries still exist, but the team is adapting and improving the run since Parker’s return. The Bengals have had a surprisingly decent defense this year, but they’ve been getting progressively more injured since the week #7 game, a game which saw the Steelers reel off a bunch of 4th quarter points en route to a 35-10 victory.

In summary, the Steelers’ offense should be better and the Bengals’ defense worse since their earlier contest, and it’s a home game for Pittsburgh. Of all the games on the board this week, this one has the most potential to get out of hand and turn into a blowout. Not only should Pittsburgh have numerous short fields to work with, it’s highly likely they’ll have at least one extremely short field after a Fitzpatrick fumble or interception, which may be returned for a touchdown, scoring points without even putting the offense on the field. With the low total of 34, it won’t be hard to get this one Over after a couple of big plays in spite of the near-freezing (30% chance snow, 10-15 mph winds) weather.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 13 – Steelers 24

Week #11 Quality Control Table

15 of 16 on predicted totals, though statistically I shouldn't have done quite that well, lol. A little bit of luck on sides, as I ended up going 10-4-2, though 2 games bet that lost should've been covers: PIT/SD, we all know what happened there, and MIA, victimized by a 95 yard punt return, who statistically covered the 10 point line.

I was even on turnover differential heading into the MNF game, where I had a +4 margin. The Browns covered statistically without the turnovers, so it was really just an even week on luck overall, though it seemed like more bad luck than good. The Cardinals should have crushed the the Seahawks, but turnovers kept it close. The Eagles had a turnover while driving late in the first half which set up the Bengals with their only touchdown of the game -- that's probably a 10 or 14 point swing that cost the cover in that game potentially.

Week #11 Plays & Results

Another incredibly good week, though it would've been 3 units better if not for getting zebra-humped at the end of the PIT/SD game. Sorry, next time I'll try to find out when the fix is in, lol.

8 for 8 on totals was nice.

Beating Line Moves -- Why You are Getting Paid by Subscribing

I’ve been posting my plays against the opening lines for 5 years online. It was probably in the second year when I realized that I was consistently beating the line moves. This has continued to be the case. Two years ago I documented for almost the entire season how I consistently beat the line moves. I did so by posting my projections of which way I thought the lines would move when they were first released and then keeping a point tally for and against (and boy did I ever come out miles ahead, lol). I think it’s fair to say (and logical) that my computer based handicapping is giving me similar opening lines to what the sharps and syndicates are also coming up with. They’re the ones betting enough money on the games early in the week to get the lines to move. At thepredictiontracker.com, which I joined at the halfway point last season, I ended up as the second most accurate linesmaker amongst 60 or so competitors for the second half. This year I’m in first or second in the 4 major categories again versus another large field of linesmakers (though I’m not sure how this past week’s 7-7 record versus the sides will affect my standings, as the site hasn’t been updated yet).

Let’s take a look at week #7 alone at the number of points I’ve already saved on line moves (based on internet forum posted plays I’ve made) and put a dollar amount on that for a 100$ a game bettor.

MY PLAY – CURRENT LINE (All Lines from BookMaker) – SAVINGS

TEN -7__TEN -8__+1
TEN/KC Over 35__35__0
BAL/MIA Over 34.5__36.5__+2
NO +3__+3__0
NO/CAR Over 44__44.5__+0.5
NYJ/OAK Under 43__42.5__+0.5
IND/GB Under 48__47__+1
MIN +3__+3__0
DEN +3.5__+3__+0.5
DEN/NE Over 46__46.5__+0.5
DAL/STL Under 44__44__0

That’s a grand total of 6 points saved versus line movements with only 12 games on the board. Most of those line savings occurred within the first day of the lines being released.

The standard rate for buying points is 10% for a half point, and as high as 25% for getting on or off of the most key number, 3. A hundred dollar a game player following my early plays has already saved 120$ versus the currently available lines. That’s counting only a 10% savings for the half point on the Denver play with the juice moving against me on the MIN play and for me on the NO play. The hundred dollar player paid me 15$ for the week and has already profited 105$ in line savings. By doing the math, you can see that even a small 25$ a game bettor would have profited this week already versus line moves after factoring in a 15$ subscription to my service. And it’s not like you’re profiting on line savings only to lose the plays, lol. I’ve been a solid + Units winner every year online, including being up almost 50 average sized bets this year already.

***THE FINAL TALLY OF POINTS SAVED VERSUS LINE MOVES WAS 19.5, WHICH EQUALS A SAVINGS OF NEAR 370$ FOR THE HUNDRED DOLLAR PLAYER***

Saints @ Chiefs Week #11

“It’s What’s Known as a Mismatch Part II”

Oh when the Saint go marching on the road this year, the marching has turned to martyrdom in every case. They did win in London, however, and rarely has a contingent of Catholic-named crusaders been so cordially courted on the Anglican Isle (I’m still waiting for the Steelers to play there so we can see side by side photos of the two Big Bens every half hour on the NFL network for an entire week). The last time the Saints ventured out of the bayou up into the Midwest was in week #3 versus the Broncos. A Martin Grammatical error cost them the game – anything less than 50 yards is a chip shot in Denver, so his 43 yard miss that would have given them a 1 point lead was inexcusable.

The Saint’s road woes are not attributable to a lack of offense, just a lack of turning those yards into points. Well, that and their defense, which has given up an average of 31.8 points on the road this year. Even in their one lone blowout road loss, 7-30 at Carolina, they still outgained the Panthers in total yards. Drew Brees and the Saints have the highest yards per pass average by my rescored stats this year, and they haven’t even played versus any of the 8 weakest secondaries in the league. That’s impressive. The Broncos are the weakest secondary they’ve played ranked 24th. The Chiefs are ranked 29th and have several injured defensive starters who are both out and questionable coming into this game. Who knows, maybe it’s a bad news/good news situation for the Chiefs. When you’re ranked near last in defense maybe the replacements will bring up your level of play a little. Or maybe the Saints will score on every possession. Not only are the Chiefs the weakest secondary the Saints have faced, the Chiefs are dead last in the league in sack percentage per pass plays defensed, while the Saints are #1 in fewest sacks per passing plays allowed. It’s what’s known as a mismatch, part II.

Deuce McCallister isn’t going to return two punts for touchdowns in a game anytime soon, but he’s a better short yardage back than Reggie Bush, which is something any predominantly passing team needs to convert those short 3rd downs. Running back by committee is really all you need to have decent success versus the Chiefs’ run defense, which is ranked dead last in the league. The weather will be fairly mild by Kansas City mid-November standards, so nothing stands in the way of the Saints having a huge offensive game, except the turnovers and missed field goals that have plagued them in enemy territory. With average luck, it won’t be an issue.

The Chiefs’ offense has undergone a recent resurrection by putting last-man-standing QB Thigpen into a semi-spread offense with many shotgun snaps like the system he played in during his college years. They put up a very impressive amount of yards and points versus a tough Tampa Bay defense in their last home game two weeks ago. RB Larry Johnson returns to the field for the first time in about a month. Note to Saints’ defenders: make sure you settle for no less than a 15 yard penalty if he spits in your face. The Saints’ defense is very vulnerable to the long ball, so expect the Chiefs to attack deep as well – they had a WR option play that resulted in a 40+ yard td pass to no other than QB Thigpen versus Tampa. If the Chiefs fall behind as expected, the second half should be an entertaining air-fest that puts this game Over the total even if the first half scoring has lagged a little behind.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 34 – Chiefs 23

Cardinals @ Seahawks Week #11

“It’s What’s Known as a Mismatch”

Matt Hasselbeck has been cleared to play for the Seahawks this week. Whoopety-freakin’-do. He will still be throwing the ball to a below average receiving corps. They do get Deion Branch back who hopes to make it through an entire game this season after being out since the first. Their leading receiver as of late has been TE John Carlson, who’s been demonstrating as of late an equally good ability with both catching and dropping balls. Fullback Leonard Weaver will be out again, the one man wrecking crew who beat the 49ers by himself. This Seahawks’ offense is a few good hits away from being the same offense that couldn’t score in the final 3 and 3/4ths quarters of the game versus Philly a couple of weeks ago. The Cardinals are prone to late hits and may lay one on Hasselbeck or Branch just to put them out of the game. Not that I would condone such a thing.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote how teams were loading up to stop the Seattle run after Hasselbeck was injured. Coach Holmgren said as much last week. It will be interesting to see how much respect the Arizona defense will pay to Hasselbeck’s return. I think they’ll still focus on the run until Hasselbeck proves he’s rust-free in this game. Matt did only have a 57.7 passer rating before getting his disc bulged. He has to overcome an injury and his poor play to have a chance of winning this game, which is a pretty tall order. The Cardinals have a fairly solid defense front to back, and have been better at stopping the run than the pass this year (and their pass defense numbers really suffered in that one game versus the Jets when they were missing SS Adrian Wilson). Still, the 49ers were able to move the ball on them last week, so they won’t need Tom Cruise peeling a Mission Impossible mask from his face to have some offensive success.

Where the Seahawks will lose this game, however, is defensively. It’s no secret that the Cardinals’ high-flying passing game has been blessed by no less than the Man Upstairs himself, who surely takes exception to the lack of public nudity laws in Seattle and will continue to smite the Seahawks as a result. Nobody likes to see naked people riding bicycles. The Seahawks’ secondary is like a book of matches, slight of stature just waiting to get burned. Without a pass rush since Patrick Kerney was lost to injury, I’m not sure the Seahawks will have any defensive solutions other than flat out blitzes over and over hoping for the occasional sack, pick, or 3 and out. With time, Kurt Warner could complete passes with the opponent’s entire roster milling about in the secondary. 45% of his career starts have gone for 300+ passing yards? That’s insanely good. As are Fitzgerald, Boldin & Breaston. The Cardinals have the 3rd best yards per pass by my rescored rankings, while the Seahawks have the 8th worst pass defense. It’s what’s known as a mismatch. Hightower has given the Cardinals a spark in the running game this year as well. The forecast has cleared up so weather shouldn’t be an issue at all in Seattle on Sunday. Somebody upstairs is making sure of that.

Speaking of all out blitzes, it was fun to watch the Cardinals line up and shoot the A gap versus the 49ers last Monday. I hope they do some of the same to the Seahawks this week – but I also hope they keep from dangling their numerous appendages over the line of scrimmage this time, as I don’t think the old ticker can stand seeing multiple interceptions called back again.

Cardinals -2.5 was the opening line and 2 units on the Cards was the recommended play, which is now sitting pretty with the line at -3 with varying degrees of juice.

Final Score Prediction: Cardinals 28 – Seahawks 20

Eagles @ Bengals

The Eagles, as a football team, could be compared to undersized bullies. They pick on weaker opponents relentlessly, but often get punched right back in the face and lose when facing opponents who possess strong running games with powerful backs. The Giants’ run game ground the Eagles to a patriotic pulp last week, showing little respect for the national bird. The Redskins’ potent run offense with Portis also controlled the game in a Philly loss in week #5. The 49ers led late into the game with Gore goring the small Eagles’ defense until a complete and utter meltdown by O’Sullivan in the 4th quarter gave the Eagles a storm from behind cover.

The Eagles’ defense, like the Colts, is one built to play for a team that holds the lead in the second half. Both are small and quick with better secondaries than defensive lines, and indeed their defensive lines are better pass rushers than ground stoppers. The Eagles’ defense feasts on opposing quarterbacks in obvious passing situations as their bevy of blitzes leads to 3.11 sacks and 1 interception per game. Look at poor Ben Roethlisberger who was sacked an astonishing 9 times when trying to lead his team from behind in week #3 (though I think he was injured in that game and may not have taken all of those sacks himself). The Eagles have averaged 4.4 sacks per game in the games they’ve won, and only 1.5 in the games they’ve lost. Clearly, once they’re not so concerned with stopping the run they thrive defensively.

Fortunately for the Eagles’ defense, they’re back to playing a team that is more patsy than powerful. The Bengals have been atrocious this year, and just managed to grab their first victory of the season two weeks ago at home versus the Jaguars before their bye. The Bengals, of course, have been without QB Carson Palmer the last 6 games, and have suffered for it. Palmer had gotten off to a slow start facing 3 of the toughest defenses in the league – the Ravens’, Titans’ and Giants’, but had improved each game and indeed pushed the Giants to overtime before losing. Since Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken over at QB the Bengals have thrown for over 200 yards only once in 6 games and have averaged just 141 yards passing per game, and when you’re trying to make up a deficit for most of the game those are pathetic numbers. Their run offense has improved since bringing in Cedric Benson – they’ve averaged 111 run yards per game and almost 4.5 yards per carry in their last 3. You’d think (though you never know with some coaches) that the Bengals would like to shorten this game with repeated runs by Cedric Benson. If they’re really interested in winning, they need to limit Fitzpatrick’s pass attempts in this game. The Bengals’ QBs have been sacked 3.3 times per game and thrown 1.1 interceptions per game. Fitzpatrick has also been fumble-prone when taking hits in the backfield. Being a fairly inexperienced quarterback, he’s exactly the kind of quarterback the Eagles’ defense could demolish if the run game has to be limited in the second half.

So I expect the Bengals to run as much as humanly possible on offense as that figures to be their best chance for success and serves the added beneficial purpose of shortening the game. Defensively is there anything they can do to limit the Eagles’ offensive weapons? The answer is a maybe leaning towards no. The Bengals have been a fair defensive team this year, certainly better than last year’s injured and inept squad. They’re better at defending the pass than the run, which suits them as the Eagles are better at passing than running. Clearly the Eagles will try to get their run game going versus a below average run defense, as all pass attacks benefit from believable play action. McNabb has gotten off to many slow starts as of late, so maybe the Eagles will come out running for a change. Overall, it will be hard for the Bengals to consistently stop the Eagles’ offense as the Eagles should do better than league average in yards per play for both their running and passing plays. When you can’t cheat with an extra player to stop either the run or the pass, you’re basically at the mercy of the opponent’s offensive execution, and the Eagles have certainly been known to execute, ne assassinate weak defenses over the years. Look for the Eagles to be the bullies on the road again in a similar match up to the one they faced two weeks ago in Seattle. Seattle scored on a 90 yard touchdown pass on their first offensive play of the game, but that was the end of it as the Eagles went on to win 26-7. The numbers indicate this game will be pretty near a carbon copy of that one.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – Bengals 10


I'll post two more write ups tomorrow morning, BOL to everyone this week!

Week #11 -- Jets @ Patriots

I was bullish on the Bills last week, predicting an outright victory at New England. Boy did they make me look bad, lol. As expected, they didn’t get much going on the ground versus the Patriots, but what surprised me was how awful Trent Edwards and the passing game was. Maybe something really did get jarred loose in his head in that concussion he sustained at Saint Louis. Against one of the thinnest secondaries in the league he did almost nothing. Granted, he was without his #2 receiver, but that’s no excuse, there were still plenty of guys to throw the ball to. The defense looked equally inept, letting the Patriots convert third downs over and over. It’s not so much that the Patriots won that game, it’s more that the Bills just flat out lost it.

The Patriots face a divisional rival at home for the second week in a row. They beat the Jets 19-10 at The Meadowlands back in week #2. Things have changed since then. Brett Favre is now running the offensive efficiently, relying more on the 1st and 2nd level passes as of late, and they’re trusting in Thomas Jones and their run game more than they did early in the year. I remember begging into the void for them to run the ball earlier this season, calling Mangenius a Mantard for not doing so more, and it looks like the message finally got through, lol.

There’s really not much detail to go into in this game. It’s as clear as neon paint on a chalkboard – the Jets are better than the Patriots in just about every facet of the game. They run the ball better, they defend the run better. They pass the ball better, they defend the pass better. They sack opposing quarterbacks more while getting sacked less. They have a higher punt yards for average and a lower punt yards against average. They have a higher red zone conversion rate for and a lower red zone conversion rate against. Gostkowski has a stronger leg for more kickoff touchbacks for the Pats. If you rate that higher than all of the previous statistical disadvantages I listed, then by all means bet the Patriots in this game, lol. In spite of all this statistical inferiority the Belichick/Patriots mystique saw them open up as a 4 point favorite in this contest. Yes we jumped it and the line quickly came down. As of this writing the average line is Pats -3 (-120). Just like last week, the sharp money came in early against the Pats.

The Patriots have been winning games by virtue of playing a schedule loaded with weak run defenses. That comes to a halt this week, as the Jets have the 4th ranked rush defense. Cassel will no longer find himself in so many favorable passing situations, and will revert back to getting sacked and making some poor throws like he was doing earlier in the season. Just once this week I’d like to see him take off right up the middle of the pocket and instead of scrambling for a first down get whacked and fumble the ball, lol. Randy Moss missed a lot of plays last week, so his foot was clearly bothering him. With a short week leading up to the Thursday game, I’m not sure how much effective practice time he’ll see, or indeed how healthy his injury will be come Thursday. Getting points in this game is a gift, especially anything 3 or higher, as the numbers once again indicate the Patriots will be upset, and this time it seems even more likely with Brett Favre leading a balanced attack instead of Trent Edwards “leading” a one dimensional passing attack that ended up being hampered by the injuries at WR and the offensive line.

Final Score Prediction: Jets 21 – Patriots 17

Week #10 Quality Control

As you can see from the stat estimated O/Us and the actual O/Us, we were really unlucky on totals this week, as we should've hit near 71% on total predictions for all games, instead of the 36% that actually hit. The two with the biggest discrepancies were of course two of the favorite totals of the week, the GB/MIN and NYJ/STL Unders. We bet those early and watched the lines sink 3.5 points a piece, which is a huge line change. By the stat estimates they should have gone Under by near 12 and 7 points respectively, though in actuality they both went Over due to pick 6s in both games, additional STL turnovers that set the Jets up with short fields, and a punt return touchdown by the Packers. The side predictions performed poorly, the worst week since I've been keeping track. Yes we lost the turnover battle in 7 of 11 games that didn't have an even turnover ratio, but the total yards and yards per play didn't support winners in most of the games anyway.

One thing I did differently this week was to use the line available when plays were recommended as that was the line we were competing against. If no plays were made on a particular side or total, then a line near the closing line was used.

Week #10 Plays/Final Results

Blech, didn't love the card except for a few totals this week and the card returned the lack of love right back at me, as we lost the turnover battle in 7 of 11 games, and had all sorts of big non-offensive plays to sink the quality Unders. Still, down 5 units is not much harm as this season has been a fiscal landslide victory, lol.

Week #10 Freebie

Packers @ Vikings

Here we have a game that features one team that should’ve won last week, but lost, and a team that won handily, but could’ve easily lost. Not surprisingly, the value this week is on the team that really should have won last week, the Green Bay Packers. The Packers outgained the Titans in yards, 390-347, and yards per play, 5.7 to 4.6. They lost by going 1 for 4 in the red zone, turning the ball over twice in Titans’ territory, and failing to convert on 4th and short twice. The Vikings, meanwhile, did have a higher yards per play average than their opponent, the Texans, though fewer yards over all. A +2 turnover ratio was the difference for the Vikings in covering at home.

You’d think the Vikings are a stronger running team than passing team, but that hasn’t necessarily been the case since Frerotte took over at QB, as they’re near league average in both departments, and ranked one spot higher with the pass than the run by my rankings. Clearly Frerotte is able to exploit teams choosing to key defensively on the run, which was something Tarvaris Jackson wasn’t doing well. The Vikings were 0-2 with Jackson, and 4-2 with Frerotte. The Packers have such a good pass defense, however, that they can afford to put an extra man in the box and rely on their man coverage of the wide receivers. Their rush defense, though, is only ranked 28th, and they suffer from occasional gap mistakes, as we saw last week versus the Titans. Still, it’s not a horrible way to defend, I’m thinking (just my observations, lol). It’s better to give up three two yard runs and then a 20 yarder then four yards every rush, as you can force some forth downs when the other team doesn’t hit the big play. The Packers will mostly be playing the same defensive scheme again this week as last, but with a little more pressure in the secondary because the Vikings are more capable of hitting the home run pass than the Titans are. So the Packers should have decent defensive success versus the Vikings, who’ll have to work hard for their points just like the Titans did last week.

The Packers, unsurprisingly, have been offensively better passing than running. They’re widely regarded as the team with the most weapons at the WR and TE positions. The Vikings keyed on limiting Andre Johnson’s success last week, which they did fairly well, but it allowed TE Owen Daniels to have a monster game in both catches and yards. You can’t key on any one of the Packers’ pass threats, as every one of them can beat you for a big play. Jared Allen, sack specialist for the Vikings, will probably miss this game with a probable torn ligament in his shoulder. Extra time in the pocket is not something you want to give Aaron Rodgers, but it looks like he’ll be getting it. The Vikings did run some good corner blitzes versus the Saints earlier this year that resulted in a sack/fumble/td that helped them win the game – they’ll have to rely on pressure from different places to make up for Jared Allen’s absence. Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder still isn’t 100%, and he still suffers from soreness after every game. So far, though, he’s looked pretty good in games so there’s no apparent reason why this week should be any different. As the Packers were able to move the ball in between the 20s well last week versus a better pass defense than the Vikings have, I see no reason why they shouldn’t have decent success again.

Given the offensive match ups, these teams should perform fairly equally, so this game has a high likelihood of coming down to special teams performances, and that is where the Packers have a distinct advantage. They punt the ball better, have better punt coverage, they kick off the ball deeper for more touchbacks, and allow fewer yards per return. The Vikings do have a better kick off return yards average. If you’ll recall, the Packers won the opening week match up thanks to a punt return touchdown, and most of you probably saw the two Reggie Bush punt returns against the Vikings as well. I’m going to go out on a sturdy limb and say that a big special teams play will once again give the Packers a victory versus the Vikings.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 21 – Vikings 20

The Under 45.5 in this game is one of the few playable totals left on the board this week.

Week #9 Quality Control Table

For week #9 both my Totals and Sides projections fared favorably versus the actual stat estimated final scores. I should have covered 69% of all totals and 57% of all sides based on stat estimates, where in actuality I hit 54% of all totals and 71% of all sides -- so good luck on the sides, poor luck on the totals. The most grievous play on a total that should have won but didn't was the Under 41 DAL/NYG, as the stat estimated final score should have been 13-21 Giants, but turnovers gave some short fields including a pick 6 resulting in a 14-35 final score. Funny, as that was a play I wasn't showing any value in, but was betting a gut play against the Cowboys' offense with Brad Johnson. Once in a blue moon my gut is correct, lol. The luckiest winning play was on the Vikings, as the stat estimated final score had them losing 24-25.

Week #9 Results, Yessssssssss!

Week #9 marks the 4th week in the last 7th where I've been over +10 units, with this being the best week of the season +24.4 units, bringing the season tally to +66.7 Units.

Record Setting Sunday

Every now and then a pat on the back seems perfectly okay. Today, 11/02/08 saw my posted subscriber plays go for +20.2 Units (as long as the Steelers don't lose by more than 67 points tomorrow, that is, as that will cash a Grand Salami Away Teams bet), which is +23.3 averaged sized bets, with the largest bets of the day being no more than 2 units. We need >24 points tomorrow to cash a Grand Salami Over, and the Steelers +8.5 to finish off a teaser. This season is already rivaling my best ever, and we're only halfway through it. I've traditionally been pretty strong down the stretch, so subscribe now -- it's truly the best deal in NFL handicapping available!

Week #9 Subscriber Only Write Ups

Ravens @ Browns

Any game involving the Ravens will inevitably be labeled as “physical,” and this one versus the division rival Browns will be no different, lol. The Browns will seek revenge from a week #2 loss that saw them play okay but lose as a more or less result of two interceptions thrown by Anderson. Anderson and the Browns have been putting it together on offense in recent weeks since getting some players back. They’ve won as 7 point dogs versus the Giants and Jaguars, while narrowly losing a game versus the Redskins in which they were badly outgained. They really struggled offensively versus the best defense of those 3 teams I just mentioned – the Redskins. Here they face a Ravens’ defense with similar, and slightly better, numbers than the Redskins. The one thing they’ll have going for them this game are the numerous injuries to the Baltimore secondary, the same thing that cost Baltimore many a game last year. The Ravens’ pass defense has actually been pretty average after the second week of the season. That coincides with the injury to safety Dawan Landry. It would appear that Jim Leonhard taking his place has been a significant drop in skill at the position. Landry will be back in a week or two. CB McCallister, a 2 time Pro Bowler, has been dealing with injuries and it looks like he may be done for the year. Aging and perpetually gimpy Samari Rolle may be back for this game. If you like watching a cornerback running 2 steps behind the receiver, tune in if Samari sees significant playing time. Any DB guarding a Cleveland WR will be giving up a step, actually.

I better slow down before I talk myself out of the Ravens, lol. I am making a case for the fact that the Browns will be able to score some points in this game, though. No one has had a successful running game versus the Ravens in quite some time (26 consecutive games without giving up a 100 yard rusher, I believe?), so the Browns will need to air it out to win this game, and they are blessed with weapons for just such an attack. The Browns’ vertical passing game will help the Over in this game.


So you can mark the Browns down for about 17 points (minimum) versus a defense that allows 18.8. How will the Ravens’ offense fare? Even better. They have the luxury of having match up advantages in both the running and passing games, offensively. I project the Ravens to do better than league average in both yards per run and yards per pass, though their biggest advantage will be running the ball. As the Browns will have to defend the run first on most non-obvious passing downs, Flacco should find comfortable gaps in the defense to throw the ball to when passing, and play action should be particularly effective. Teams that run the ball well have a big advantage offensively because the quarterbacks will find themselves under less pass-rushing pressure with fewer defenders in the secondary time after time. The Titans didn’t have a great game running the ball versus the Colts last week, as the Colts were committed to stopping the run, but as a result, Kerry Collins found many soft spots to throw to and completed enough passes to keep drives alive and win the ball game. Flacco also has a strong arm and can throw an accurate deep ball, so both of these teams have home run potential on any given play. Just like the Titans knew the Colts were defending the run first and so came out passing the ball more on early downs, so will the Ravens. Offenses have to punish defenses who over-commit to stop either the run or the pass.

Clearly Flacco has had some road woes this year, hurting his team with costly turnovers. It’s a positive sign, though, that he had his best passing game of the season in his last road start at Miami, and followed that up with another good outing last week versus the Raiders. The rookie QB, like Matt Ryan, is showing improvement in his play both at home and on the road.

Putting the pieces together, the Ravens should have a good offensive day due to their now more balanced attack versus a below average Browns’ defense. The Browns will run the ball as long as they’re mildly successful or failing that, just enough to keep the Ravens’ defense honest. Yes, it’s true that Jamal Lewis had a good yards per carry average on only 12 carries versus the Ravens in week #2, but good luck maintaining that average for 20+ carries, as recent history suggest that will be a near impossibility. The Browns may talk run, but they have to know that to beat the Ravens they’ll need to do what the Colts did a few weeks ago and exploit the only advantage they have in this game, their speedy TEs and WRs versus an injured and statistically declining Ravens’ secondary.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 22 – Browns 17 (with Matt Stover kicking 5 field goals for the Ravens, lol)

The weather forecast as of Friday still looks pretty mild, so any number under 37 is a gift for the Over. Close games like this one rates to be feature teams trying to score all the way until the final possession, and as I like to point out, a 17-17 tie at any point is a winner on any Over below 37 barring a scoreless OT.


Eagles @ Seahawks

After last week’s blowout of the 49ers, the Seahawks are backkkkkkkk…ack…cough…hack…cough. Uttering such a phrase nearly caused me to choke on my own vomit! Last week’s victory was a false win, if ever NFL history has seen one – a completely misleading final score. The Seahawks won by passing for more yards than the 49ers, right? Enh! (incorrect buzzer sound) They threw for 42 yards less, but did have a higher yards per pass average thanks to the 102 yards gained on 2 touchdown passes to fullback Leonard Weaver. Leonard Weaver, you can’t shut him down, you can only hope to contain him. I guess his neon green shoes aren’t just flashy, they’re toxic as well, as Leonard finds himself questionable with a foot injury heading into this week’s game. Not only was Leonard the Seahawks’ leading receiver by a more than 2 to 1 margin, he was almost their leading rusher in the game with 2 carries for 13 yards. No, that is not a misprint. The Seahawks’ leading rusher last week was M. Morris who gained 16 yards on 11 carries. As a team the Seahawks gained 39 yards on 28 attempts for a paltry 1.4 yards per carry. Seattle was outgained by 127 yards in their 21 point victory last week. They had the luck of playing against the Irish O’Sullivan, a turnover machine unlike the NFL has seen in quite some time. O’Sullivan, of course, was benched before even reaching the half by new coach Mike Singletary, who apparently suffered so much stress-induced weight loss during said first half that his trousers slipped right off his torso during his halftime pep chewing out.

The simple truth is that since Matt Hasselbeck was lost to injury, opposing defenses have been defending the run first versus the Seahawks, which is why they’ve averaged 85 rush yards per game in their last 3, versus the 143 per game they had before losing their starting QB. Their first 4 games average was bolstered considerably by the 245 rush yards they gained versus the Pre-Haslett Rams in week #3.

The 49ers have a pretty good run defense, ranked 8th by my rescored numbers, but the Eagles flying into town have been even stronger, ranked 4th. It doesn’t look good for the Seattle ground game. Can still starting Seneca make passing pie out of the crabapple castoffs running routes for him? I don’t see how. Take away the 2 TD tosses to the fullback last week and you’re left with pretty meager pass statistics, and that was versus an average 49er pass defense. The Eagles have the 9th ranked pass defense. The last time the Seahawks faced a top 10 pass defense was in Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago where Seneca ended up passing for 73 total yards. That was Seneca’s first start of the season actually. In the Seahawks’ last home game 3 weeks ago, Charlie Frye got the start. The result? Also less than 100 yards passing versus the Packers. Call me a cold-hearted skeptic and believer in the bald-faced stats, but I don’t see how on earth the Seahawks are going to manage to put together many scoring drives versus a Philly defense ranked in the top 10 versus both the pass and rush.

So if the Seahawks will be hard pressed to score, can they turn the game into a defensive battle and cover thusly? Their run defense has been okay this year, giving up 122 yards per game and a little less than 4 yards per carry by my rescored stats. The Eagles’ rush attack has been improving in recent weeks, culminating in the 193 yards they picked up versus the Falcons last week. Granted, the Falcons don’t have a good run defense, but the Eagles have played many teams that do. By my numbers the Eagles have faced the 5th toughest schedule of run defenses in the league so far this year. The Eagles have already played against 5 teams with near equal or better run defenses than the Seahawks have.

The Seahawks will also be without their star DE, Patrick Kerney, for the first time this season. He’s their sack leader with 5 this season, one ahead of LB Julian Peterson. With a weakened pass rush, can the Seahawks’ secondary cover well enough to limit the Eagles’ passing game? I’m going to have to go with a big fat NO on this one, as the Seahawks actually have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, ranked 27th, while the Eagles have the 9th ranked pass offense, a ranking achieved for the most part without 2 of their top receivers, Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis, who will both suit up and be ready for this game. TE LJ Smith will sit this one out due to a concussion – he also missed a couple of games earlier in the season. When one team is projected to do better than league average in both yards per carry and yards per pass, that’s a recipe for defensive failure for the opponent, in this case the Seahawks, as there is very little they can do to shut down any aspect of the Eagles’ offense. About the best they can hope for is that the 60% chance of showers turns into 100% chance of showers and that the 12-17 mph wind turns into a 30-40 mph constant Tsunami wind. Only they don’t have natural grass a la Heinz Field so they still won’t have much hope of turning it into a 3-0 final score in 4 inches of muddy grass chunks.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 31 – Seahawks 13

Patriots @ Colts

The Bucs continue their western trek by pointing the compass north from Dallas to Kansas City this week. They’re hoping their fortunes are pointing up as well, as an inability to score a single touchdown on 262 offensive yards last week meant they scored in the single digits (9 points) for the first time this season, as well as being only the second time they’ve scored less than 20 this season. They outgained the Cowboys by 90 yards, so it was a particularly stinging loss for a team needing every win possible in the resurgent NFC South this year.

The Chiefs return to Arrowhead after taking the Jets to the wire last week, giving up the game losing score with a minute to play. They had their second best offensive game of the year, accruing 330 yards. Defensively, they were still one of the worst in the league, surrendering 421 yards. How bad has their run defense been? They’ve allowed a whopping 198 yards rushing per game to opponents this year. Not good news when you’re facing the Bucs’ 9th ranked rush attack. The Bucs will not have Warrick Dunn available for this game, as the Bucs are planning on resting the pinched nerve in his back after giving him limited carries last week. Gruden regretted playing him at all last week, he was quoted as saying. That means Earnest Graham will continue to get the bulk of the carries, as well as playing as a blocking full back occasionally, the Bucs are so thin at RB right now. Still, it’s not a huge concern, as running against the Chiefs requires nothing more than any old run of the mill running back holding onto the ball and running downhill through a gaping hole.

Larry Johnson and Spitgate continue to be news in KC. Apparently coach Edwards is so down on LJ right now that he’s going to continue benching him without the league or the law mandating him to do so. The carries, therefore, will continue to be handled by Kolby Smith. 3rd stringer Jamaal Charles is banged up and “?” to go, so the Chiefs clearly have plenty of running back woes of their own. The Chiefs have only gotten more than 102 yards rushing in a game twice this season – 184 versus the Falcons, and 214 versus the Broncos – two teams with sub-par run defenses. The Bucs have the 6th rated run defense, so the Chiefs will be hard pressed to have any success on the ground in this match up.

An interesting development that should affect what we see in this game is the semi-spread offense the Chiefs went with last week. As their offense and season have been so poor, they had nothing to lose by trying something new last week with the mobile Thigpen back at QB. They ran some no-huddle and shotgun rollouts, the kind of offense Thigpen played in college at Coastal Carolina. As they rate to be playing from behind for the entire 2nd half, odds are they’ll do it again this week in an effort to gain ground versus the Bucs, who oddly enough were the 3rd worst team in the league last year when defending 5-wide sets. Still, the Bucs have the 5th ranked pass defense, and Thigpen may not be able to avoid any turnovers two weeks in a row.

The Bucs have not had a particularly explosive passing game this year, ranking 19th. Their best/only deep threat, Joey Galloway, has been hampered by injuries. Still, they’ve got some solid pass-catching tight ends and wide receivers. WR Antonio Bryant is having a career-resurrecting season with a combination of good on the field play and no off the field blunders. The Chiefs defensively are again near the bottom of the pack with the 31st ranked pass defense, with only the Lions being worse than they.

Clearly the Bucs have the advantage in just about every imaginable match up. The Chiefs had one of the strongest punters in the league with Dustin Colquitt, but he’s sidelined with a groin injury right now. They’ve also switched kickers, and just added a new long snapper. If any team in the league is primed to have a blocked or botched punt/field goal attempt this week, it’s the Chiefs. They figure to have a lot more punt attempts than field goal attempts this week, so the Bucs could find themselves with very favorable field position on more than one occasion. This will help the Over. The Chiefs have given up 34 points or more in 3 of their 7 games this season – this will help the Over. The Chiefs will most likely run their variation of the spread with the no-huddle and shotgun for the second week in a row, this will help the Over. As of this writing, there are still 36.5s available on the board, which is on the right side of 37 when betting the Over. The weather will be mostly cloudy with 12-17 mph winds, not poor enough conditions to affect the offenses, really. I recommended the Over 37 earlier in the week for 1 Unit. Now that the Chiefs will be running an offense more conducive to the Over (and Bucs starting SS Phillips is out with a broken arm), there is even more value on the Over. I’d recommend taking an additional half Unit on the Over 36.5.

Final Score Prediction: Bucs 31 – Chiefs 13