Week #11 -- Jets @ Patriots

I was bullish on the Bills last week, predicting an outright victory at New England. Boy did they make me look bad, lol. As expected, they didn’t get much going on the ground versus the Patriots, but what surprised me was how awful Trent Edwards and the passing game was. Maybe something really did get jarred loose in his head in that concussion he sustained at Saint Louis. Against one of the thinnest secondaries in the league he did almost nothing. Granted, he was without his #2 receiver, but that’s no excuse, there were still plenty of guys to throw the ball to. The defense looked equally inept, letting the Patriots convert third downs over and over. It’s not so much that the Patriots won that game, it’s more that the Bills just flat out lost it.

The Patriots face a divisional rival at home for the second week in a row. They beat the Jets 19-10 at The Meadowlands back in week #2. Things have changed since then. Brett Favre is now running the offensive efficiently, relying more on the 1st and 2nd level passes as of late, and they’re trusting in Thomas Jones and their run game more than they did early in the year. I remember begging into the void for them to run the ball earlier this season, calling Mangenius a Mantard for not doing so more, and it looks like the message finally got through, lol.

There’s really not much detail to go into in this game. It’s as clear as neon paint on a chalkboard – the Jets are better than the Patriots in just about every facet of the game. They run the ball better, they defend the run better. They pass the ball better, they defend the pass better. They sack opposing quarterbacks more while getting sacked less. They have a higher punt yards for average and a lower punt yards against average. They have a higher red zone conversion rate for and a lower red zone conversion rate against. Gostkowski has a stronger leg for more kickoff touchbacks for the Pats. If you rate that higher than all of the previous statistical disadvantages I listed, then by all means bet the Patriots in this game, lol. In spite of all this statistical inferiority the Belichick/Patriots mystique saw them open up as a 4 point favorite in this contest. Yes we jumped it and the line quickly came down. As of this writing the average line is Pats -3 (-120). Just like last week, the sharp money came in early against the Pats.

The Patriots have been winning games by virtue of playing a schedule loaded with weak run defenses. That comes to a halt this week, as the Jets have the 4th ranked rush defense. Cassel will no longer find himself in so many favorable passing situations, and will revert back to getting sacked and making some poor throws like he was doing earlier in the season. Just once this week I’d like to see him take off right up the middle of the pocket and instead of scrambling for a first down get whacked and fumble the ball, lol. Randy Moss missed a lot of plays last week, so his foot was clearly bothering him. With a short week leading up to the Thursday game, I’m not sure how much effective practice time he’ll see, or indeed how healthy his injury will be come Thursday. Getting points in this game is a gift, especially anything 3 or higher, as the numbers once again indicate the Patriots will be upset, and this time it seems even more likely with Brett Favre leading a balanced attack instead of Trent Edwards “leading” a one dimensional passing attack that ended up being hampered by the injuries at WR and the offensive line.

Final Score Prediction: Jets 21 – Patriots 17