As you can see from the stat estimated O/Us and the actual O/Us, we were really unlucky on totals this week, as we should've hit near 71% on total predictions for all games, instead of the 36% that actually hit. The two with the biggest discrepancies were of course two of the favorite totals of the week, the GB/MIN and NYJ/STL Unders. We bet those early and watched the lines sink 3.5 points a piece, which is a huge line change. By the stat estimates they should have gone Under by near 12 and 7 points respectively, though in actuality they both went Over due to pick 6s in both games, additional STL turnovers that set the Jets up with short fields, and a punt return touchdown by the Packers. The side predictions performed poorly, the worst week since I've been keeping track. Yes we lost the turnover battle in 7 of 11 games that didn't have an even turnover ratio, but the total yards and yards per play didn't support winners in most of the games anyway.
One thing I did differently this week was to use the line available when plays were recommended as that was the line we were competing against. If no plays were made on a particular side or total, then a line near the closing line was used.
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