Sunday, September 28, 2008

Week #5

Had another huge Sunday, making this Sunday and last my two best Sundays ever, and back to back no less.
Here's a link at right to my week #5 thread.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Week #4

Greetings, please check the week #4 link to the right for this week's action. Lots of strong plays this week. I beat the line movement on most, but most have value still.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Week #3 Lines & Plays Updated.

As I'm unable to post Excel table data into the blog here, I'll direct you to the week #3 EOG.com link to the right for the updates! These lines generally aren't updated at ThePredictionTracker until Sunday morning.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Week #2 recap & Week #3 Recommended Plays

Week two had been running pretty lucky on sides (not so lucky on totals) until the gas tank was punctured in the 4th Q. at Dallas Monday night. I was quite possibly one glitched handoff away from ending up the week well over 10 units ahead...but had to settle being up 6.7. I had a very good week at thepredictiontracker.com, ending up near the top of the board for the week and evening out my ats record to 15-15 for the year after a dismal week 1.

Season to date: +5.3 Units

Week #3 Recommended Plays:

1 Unit:
Bucs +3
Vikings/Panthers Over 37
Denver -5
49ers -4
Ravens -2.5
NYG-2/OAK+22/TB+15/MIA+26
Redskins -3
Eagles/Steelers Under 45.5
Packers/Cowboys Under 51.5
Jaguars +5.5
Jaguars ML

1/2 Unit:
Bears/Bucs Over 35

*** Remember that I'll be posting halftime plays in my EOG.com thread

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Week #3 Plays

See my link at EOG.com for week #3 plays.

Have had a fantastic day so far up 8 units.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Week #2 Final Lines

These are much more readable at the EOG.com link at the right.

Home Road Mine Actual Covers Value
KC OAK 3.5 3.5 KC 0.0%
CIN TEN -3.1 1 TEN 11.2%
MIN IND -2.9 -1 IND 4.4%
WAS NO 0.1 0 WAS 0.3%
DET GB -7.9 -3 GB 10.7%
CAR CHI 3.4 3 CAR 1.1%
STL NYG -13.1 -8 NYG 12.1%
JAC BUF 1.4 5 BUF 9.7%
TB ATL 2.6 7 ATL 11.8%
SEA SF 2.2 6.5 SF 11.3%
ARI MIA 6.2 6.5 MIA 0.9%
NYJ NE -1.5 1.5 NE 8.2%
HOU BAL 1.7 4.5 BAL 7.4%
DEN SD 0.4 1 SD 1.3%
CLE PIT -4.4 -6 CLE 3.5%
DAL PHI 2.7 6.5 PHI 8.1%

Home Road Mine Actual Covers Value
KC OAK 39.6 36 Over 9.2%
CIN TEN 39.1 37 Over 5.3%
MIN IND 42.7 43.5 Under 1.8%
WAS NO 44.8 42 Over 6.3%
DET GB 46.3 46 Over 0.6%
CAR CHI 40.6 37 Over 8.8%
STL NYG 38.8 42 Under 8.1%
JAC BUF 37.9 37 Over 2.3%
TB ATL 38.1 37.5 Over 1.5%
SEA SF 33.7 38 Under 12.9%
ARI MIA 40.3 39.5 Over 2.0%
NYJ NE 36.2 37 Under 2.2%
HOU BAL 38.3 37.5 Over 2.1%
DEN SD 46.7 46 Over 1.4%
CLE PIT 42.2 44.5 Under 5.4%
DAL PHI 43.7 46.5 Under 6.5%

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Week #2 Write-Ups Games 1-5

Raiders @ Chiefs
The Raiders ran the ball pretty well last week, but they did it while playing from behind the entire
game (passing situations) and versus the Broncos, one of last year's worst run defenses, so it's too
soon to tell just how potent this running game will be in a close game, which this one figures to be.
Still, the one-two punch of Fargas and McFadden looks promising. What didn't look promising was
the passing game which featured many poorly thrown balls and the occasional drop.
The Chiefs' defense was not impressive at NE last week. They allowed the Pats' to gain almost 5
yards per carry and for Matt Cassel to have a higher QB rating than the knocked-out Brady.
Offensively, they were unsurprisingly subpar versus a good Pats' defense. Damon Huard came in
to relieve the injured Brody Croyle (out a month+) and put up moderately better numbers, almost
leading them to a game-tying score at the end of the game.
The Chiefs are a young team, the Raiders a young (mentally) team led by a 33-year old coach
who knows the owner want him to quit. Everyone in the booth last Monday night was about ready
to cry for Lane Kiffin when the game got ugly, it was hard not to feel sorry for him, lol.
It'll be interesting to see how DeAngelo Hall fares versus D. Bowe after getting torched by rookie
Royal last week. Bowe and Gonzales have the size and ability to get downfield and win a lot of jump
balls versus a smallish Raiders secondary. About the only thing Raider-esque Hall did last Monday
was incur a couple of stupid personal fouls. If the Raiders blitz even one time on 3rd down this
week it'll be one more time than they did last week, which was pretty stupid versus a QB in Cutler
who can throw with accuracy to almost anywhere on the field.

Final Score Prediction: Raiders 17 -- Chiefs 21

Titans @ Bengals
VY was MIA from Sunday on the field through Monday night when coach Fischer thought the poor
kid to be suicidal. Now comes the announcement that VY won't regain his status as starter until
he shows progress on the field of green and the field of the mind. I don't know, but it seems like
maybe things got blown out of proportion by a coach who'd rather start Kerry Collins. Now there's
a coach ready to take it to the next level to help his team win. Speaking of being on suicide
watch after a dismal performance, I'm surprised anyone showed up to the Bengals' first practice
after last week's drubbing by the Ravens. An extra page of obituaries in the back of the
Cincinnati Enquirer would not have been surprising on Monday. They just wouldn't have been sure
whether to print "Chad Johnson" or "Chad Ocho Cinco." The Bengals were on their way to being
down 24-3 in the second half last week before returning a turnover some 70+ yards to pull within
a touchdown, a margin they couldn't, of course, make up unless they were the benefactors of
another defensive score.
I don't know if the Titans' coach espouses as many on the field dirty tricks as off, but the Titans ended
the season for about half of the Jaguars' offensive line on opening day. The resulting sieve was too
much for the normally steady Garrard to overcome as he was sacked 7 times and through 2 INTs.
I guess we can just count on the Titans upsetting the Jaguars whenever they play the first game of
the season together.
The Bengals whipped the playoff bound Titans in their last meeting in Cincinnati last year,
in no small part to VY's red zone blunders. So motivation won't be a problem for the visiting
Titans (though it is a road sandwich game for them, which is always dangerous).
As for the Cancerous Bengals, it's hard to say how mentally ready they'll be for this non-divisional
game as they face the defending Super Bowl champs next week. I'll take a sandwich over cancer
any time.

Final Score Prediction: Titans 21 -- Bengals 17

Colts @ Vikings
First impressions are that the Colts will pass all day and the Vikings will run all game. Advantage
Colts if the Vikings are forced to the passing game in the 4th quarter. Manning won't have to worry
about the Williams coming up the gut to get him on shotgun plays. They could come free and he'd
still have enough time to get the ball out of his hands. Jared Allen didn't register a tackle, let alone
a sack versus the Packers, which doesn't bode well for a Vikings' pass defense that needs all the
help up front it can get. Dallas Clark didn't practice again on Thursday, and he might be the
one receiver (at TE) that the Colts can't replace, because it's total scrubville on the depth charts
behind him. Addai got dinged up, but looks to be ready for the next game. Not having Jeff Saturday
at center might not hurt the Colts this week as much as last unless they foolishly decide to run it
up the middle more than 4 or so times this game. A blocking whiff by the replacement may just
set up better the short drop off passes over the middle to Addai that Manning likes to throw.

Impromptu poll: Which of these 2 players will get knocked the eff out the first time they collide at full
speed? #1 AD-AP #2 Bob Sanders

Final Score Prediction: Colts 24 -- Vikings 20
My gut tells me there will be a little more scoring in this game than the 41.5 my spreadsheet predicts.

Saints @ Redskins
The Redskins went from playoff contender to pretender a mere one game into the NFL season. They
looked that bad. The defense stepped it up in the second half, but the 9 point deficit was not
touched, as the game went scoreless for quarters 3 & 4 (always nice for the 2nd half Under bet).
While the Redskins were able to clamp down versus a run-first Giants' team, they could be
scrambling all day versus the Saints' potent pass attack (which will be without top WR Colston).
Drew Brees does not take sacks, so the stretched and hobbling Redskin secondary will need to
come up with a pick or two to pull off the home opener. Reggie Bush looked good "in space" last
week, while Deuce McCallister is still being nursed back to full health. The "new and improved"
Saints' defense wasn't, as it turns out, as they allowed the Bucs to run all over them. They'll be
drinking Portis all day, even if they happen to have healthy lead, as offensive "genius" Zorn seems to
find nothing wrong with running the ball when down by 2 scores deep into the 4th quarter. Maybe
the Redskins' will have a no-huddle offense to go to before the season ends, just maybe.
The Saints' offensively performed pretty well last week versus THE Tampa 2, one of their toughest
match ups, so I don't expect them to have any problems putting up points in this game. The
Redskins' should be able to score some as well as Campbell will find some favorable passing downs
and situations as the Saints may cheat some defensively versus the run. This is another game
that I expect to be slightly higher scoring than my early lines indicate.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 23 -- Redskins 21

Packers @ Lions
The only question here is whether the Lions will find enough defense at home to stop the
ultra-square Packers -3 bets from cashing (mine included). I say, "No." The Lions won't be able to
cheat versus the run or pass defensively, so they're going to be stuck in the middle with their
thumb up their ass like last week at Atlanta. I called "bullshit" on the Lions' new "running game"
before the game last week, which is what it turned out to be. They had a poor yards per carry
average despite being in passing situations for most of the game. They picked up 4 1st downs
running while surrendering 17 to the Falcons, who found themselves in the rare position of not
having to take to the skies in search of a victory. Rookies Ryan and Flacco couldn't have had it
any better in their respective debuts, playing with crushing running games on their side. Kitna
reacquainted himself with his keister while gamely trying to lead his team back. He'll have Kampman
on his keister this game, or maybe Poppinga poppin' his ass -- okay, I'll stop now. The Packers will
have too many big offensive plays for the Lions to keep pace.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 31 -- Lions 20

Week #2 Lines

Remember, this is the first year I've tried to make lines before week #4...


Home______Away______My Line__Actual_____Value

Chiefs____Raiders_____3 _____3.5_____0
Bengals___Titans_____-3.3_____1_______11.5% Titans
Vikings___Colts______-2.5____-1_______3.4% Colts
Redskins__Saints_____-0.6_____0_______1.4% Saints
Lions_____Packers____-10.3___-3______15.9% Packers
Panthers__Bears_______3.1_____3_______0.4% Panthers
Rams______Giants_____-11.9___-8_______9.3% Giants
Jaguars___Bills_______2.4_____5.5_____8.4% Bills
Bucs______Falcons_____1.1_____7______15.6% Falcons
Seahawks__49ers_______3_______6.5_____9.3% 49ers
Cards_____Dolphins____6_______5.2_____2.2% Dolphins
Jets______Patriots___-0.5_____1.5_____5.4% Patriots
Texans____Ravens______2.7_____4.5_____4.8% Ravens
Broncos___Chargers___-1______-0.4_____1.3% Broncos
Browns____Steelers___-6______-3.5_____5.7% Browns
Cowboys___Eagles______2.7_____7_______9.2% Eagles

Home______Away______My OU___Actual_____Value
Chiefs____Raiders_____39.6____36_______9.2% Over
Bengals___Titans______38.5____37_______3.8% Over
Vikings___Colts_______41.7____43.5_____4.4% Under
Redskins__Saints______40.6____42_______3.4% Under
Lions_____Packers_____46.4____46_______0.9% Over
Panthers__Bears_______40.4____37_______8.4% Over
Rams______Giants______38.5____42_______9.0% Under
Jaguars___Bills_______38.4____37_______3.7% Under
Bucs______Falcons_____38.4____37.5_____2.2% Under
Seahawks__49ers_______32.1____38______18.4% Under
Cards_____Dolphins____41.3____38.5_____6.8% Over
Jets______Patriots____37.3____37_______0.8% Over
Texans____Ravens______38.3____37.5_____2.2% Over
Broncos___Chargers____46.2____46_______0.4% Over
Browns____Steelers____42______44.5_____5.9% Under
Cowboys___Eagles______43.7____46.5_____6.5% Under

Saturday, September 6, 2008

TPT

Carolina, N.Y. Giants, -1 Arizona, Philadelphia, -3.1 Baltimore, New England, 3 Chicago, St. Louis, 6.5 Cleveland, Buffalo, -1.1 Dallas, Tampa Bay, 11.2 Denver, Houston, -2.5 Indianapolis, Jacksonville, 3.3 Miami, N.Y. Jets, 2 Minnesota, San Francisco,-3.2 New Orleans, Kansas City, 12 Oakland, Pittsburgh, -2.6 San Diego, Atlanta, 4.1 Tennessee, Detroit, -2 Washington, Cincinnati, 3 Seattle, Green Bay, -3.1

Friday, September 5, 2008

Week #1 Recommended Plays

All of my plays are initially posted at TheRx.com, and it's a crapshoot whether I get them posted here before they're past-posted. Once I get my website up in a month, it'll all be there.

Week #1 Plays:

1 Unit:
Redskins/Giants Under 41
Bengals -2
Jets/Dolphins Over 36
Lions -3
Chiefs/Patriots Under 44
Jaguars/Titans Over 36.5
Eagles -1.5/Colts -2.5 Teaser (-120)
Colts/Bears Under 43
Seahawks' Team Total Over 18
Cardinals -2.5
Packers/Vikings Over 37

3/4 Unit:
Cowboys/Browns Under 49
Panthers/Chargers Under 41.5
Cardinals/49ers Under 42.5

1/2 Unit:
Redskins/Giants Under 20 2nd half (-120)
Pats-5/Colts+.5/Seahawks+10 Teaser
Eagles/Rams Under 43.5
Jaguars' Team Total Over 20 (-105 5Dimes)
Jaguars -3 (+100)
Bucs Money Line (+155)
Packers -2

*** Too many question marks for the Ravens this week with injuries/suspensions in the secondary as well.

*** Cowboys will want to run the rock plenty (and are thin at WR because of injuries, though that's not a huge factor) and the Browns will need to run a balance offense to avoid getting Anderson teed off on by the Cowboys' speedy pass rushers. A lot has to go right (or wrong, depending on how you look at it) for a game to hit 50.

*** Jets & Dolphins: Here we have two teams that were below league average at defending both the run AND pass last year. Add to the mix Favre and Pennington freshly installed at QB. Okay, neither QB is exactly fresh at this point, but Favre's QB style leads to points, and Pennington is still accurate. Look at the O/U -- 36, which is below the most key number in totals, 37. Worth a bet on the Over? Yup.

*** Grr, I've looked at it, and looked at it, and the only significant advantage the Lions have over the Falcons is in the passing game (which is the best place to have an advantage, of course). Both teams have weak secondaries, and Kitna and Co. are surely more capable of exploiting that when compared to rookie Ryan. The Lions and their new-offensive coordinator want to get back to some power running...

...but I say bullshit. Once they see how open Johnson and Williams are getting on plays that itchy trigger finger is going to start firing bullets left and right. They'd be fools not to, though foolish coaching is something you see every week. Neither team has much in the way of pass-rushing, and Atlanta's looks weaker. Mike Smith, the new Atlanta coach, used to be the D. coordinator in Jacksonville. He rushed the QB with 5 or more players only 26 percent of all pass plays (info. courtesy of The Football Prospectus 2008). If he sticks to that philosophy with the severe drop in talent he now has, they won't get many sacks.

Ach...I don't love it, but I feel compelled to play the Lions at -3 (-110 Bookmaker) while the -110 is still available for 1 unit. Ryan has looked alright in the preseason, but now it's a tougher beast for an entire game. I guess I'll find out if auto-betting versus a rookie QB is always wise after all.

*** The Chiefs offense versus anyone, the Patriots offense versus 20-30 mph winds = Under.

*** Might as well take the Jags/Titans Over 36.5 now in case it rebounds up to the key number, 37.

*** Panthers/Chargers --- Two good defenses with plenty of running the rock here. Some stingy red zone defense should equal some field goals, making a 28-14 all touchdowns final score less likely, lol. It takes a lot of field goals in a game to get over that 41 point hump. Plus the likely possibility of the Chargers nursing a second half lead will keep the scoring down, as the Chargers have been good in the past at eating clock late and sacking teams trying to come from behind via the pass.

*** Colts/Bears Under 43 -- It's been a sloppy week in terms of getting the best lines for me, which is uncharacteristic. I attribute it to the newness of being active in week #1 for the first time and not completely trusting my lines in terms of indicating line changes. Well, perhaps I should have, because my base totals derived from last years stats have done a good job in indicating line movement this first week for the most part.

*** Eagles and 49ers Unders -- these are the last 2 of my "Shake off the Rust Unders" plays. My numbers indicate these going Under, with hopefully a little rust aiding and abetting the betting.

*** Until Vince Young can beat the Jaguars, it's an auto-bet against.

Week #1 2008 NFL

Week #1: Quick Thoughts & Lines

Lions @ Falcons: Rookie Matt Ryan will take the Falcon snaps behind an O Line also featuring some fresh new faces. If the line can stay half-way healthy they’ll be better than last year’s injury-prone posse. The quarterback situation went to the dogs, so to speak, and may remain there this year. Still, the Lions are not looking very strong up front defensively and may be ineffective at getting to the rookie, especially if the Falcons can avoid many 3rd and longs with a semi-successful run game. With a little bit of time and some believable play action (haven’t seen how much of that Ryan and the Falcons do), Ryan should complete a fair number of passes versus one of the worst pass defenses of last season. Michael Turner is the new running back in town – Falcons fans can only hope that he splits the carries with the mysteriously underused J. Norwood. Martz is gone as the OC from Detroit, and the Lions are professing to bring a more balanced offensive game plan into the season. Suuuure, we’ll see how long that lasts. With the depth at wide receiver that they have and the lack of star power at running back, they’d be crazy not to bring back some of the Martz mania on offense. The Falcons would like to play a slow game here, to stay within striking distance of a win without forcing Ryan to play from too far behind. The Lions would be smart to try and play fast and put the Falcons off balance playing catch up.

My Line: Falcons +1.9
Final Score Prediction: Lions 23 – Falcons 20

Bengals @ Ravens: It’s up to Carson Palmer again to try and carry his team on his shoulders into the playoffs. The defense last year was relying on Palmer to carry them as well, which oddly enough didn’t turn out so good. The Bengals were down to parking lot attendants at linebacker at one point last year, so it seems that they can only improve defensively (A. Odom on the D line should help). The Raven’s defense continues to age at the appropriate pace of one year per annum, while the offense gets younger with Flacco and Rice (which I think is what I ordered last time I went out for Mexican). Ed Reed is one crick in the neck away from retirement, and is “?” for week 1. Newly acquired CB Fabian Washington is suspended for game one. I thought I’d read that another Baltimore DB was suspended for this game but now I can’t track that information down. At any rate, the Baltimore secondary, terrible and injured last season, is starting 2008 in the same fashion versus one of the best QBs in the league. Could be trouble. Which brings us to Flacco, rookie Raven QB. I like Delaware and the University of Delaware has a beautiful campus. Only time will tell if Flacco is an NFL caliber quarterback or not, coming from such a small school playing versus defenses closer to a high school than NFL level, I reckon. If he struggles to get it done versus a Bengal defense while playing at home, well, you know the rest. The Ravens also debut a new head coach in Harbaugh. A rookie head coach on one hand or Marvin Lewis on the other -- hard to tell if there’s a clear advantage there.

My Line: Ravens +3.5
Final Score Prediction: Bengals 23 – Ravens 17

Seahawks @ Bills: Matt Hasselbeck’s bad back will be back on the field without having seen much practice time heading into the season opener. Still, Seneca is solid, and even Frye is back out of the fire and into the pan with some solid preseason play. Deion Branch says he’s going to play, the Seahawks do need to fill some jerseys at WR, it’s true. Defensively, Bernard and Babineux are suspended for the first game. So the Seahawks bring a few question marks to a game with the always one large question mark Bills. Someone forgot to tell the Bills’ Pro Bowl offensive tackle Jason Peters that he’s playing in Buffalo where salaries and architecture have a distinctive circa 1970s flair. His contract holdout will have him missing at least the first game, though the team feels confident with the adjustments made for his absence. We’ll see about that. Peters leaving the game versus the Giants last year cost me a big chunk of profit last year when a Bills second half lead failed to even cover a Sweetheart teaser by the time it was all said and done. Trend Edwards will start at QB for the Bills, with JP Losman breathing down his neck, though to be fair, in Buffalo come December it looks like everyone is breathing down everybody elses neck it can get so friggin’ cold. The Bills have two young running backs that showed a lot of promise last year in Lynch and Jackson, and will look to set up the passing game on the strength of a solid running game. The numbers say it will be a close game, with the Hasselbeck led and Holmgren coached Seahawks logging an opening week victory.

My Line: Bills +1.1
Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 21 – Bills 20

Cowboys @ Browns: Two teams in for a big let down this year, according to FootballOutsiders, though I’m more inclined to believe in the Browns decline. Still, the Cowboys play in a division where every victory will be hard earned, so who knows? The pointspread tells the story on who brings the superior team into this contest, as the Cowboys are the largest road favorite in week #1. The main reason? Defense. Still, the Browns, like any other team, will look to exploit Roy Williams in pass defense. The Cowboys have struggled defending tight ends and that Winslow kid the Browns have ain’t too shabby. Pacman Jones hasn’t seen playing time since, well, when Pacman was getting quarters pumped into it at the local arcade. He’s been cleared of his own lead-pumping crimes and is good to go, for what it’s worth. For the Browns, Derek Anderson has just set to clearing the cobwebs from the concussion he sustained a couple of weeks ago, while top receiver Braylon Edwards is recovering at the other end of the bodily spectrum with a cut foot. Electrifying return man J. Cribbs is “?” for week #1, as is RB J. Lewis. The Cowboys are thin at receiver, but mostly all there elsewhere across the roster. The Cowboys will need to stockpile wins early in the year in case one of their stars gets injured, and ought to get one here.

My Line: Browns +7.2
Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 27 – Browns 20

Bears @ Colts: Suddenly the Colts aren’t a dome team anymore. They’ve got a new-fangled retractable roof in an attractive new stadium, something the Bears faithful might wish they had in Chicago when it turns cold on the banks of Lake Michigan. This game won’t feature anything else new-fangled, just a good old fashioned butt whuppin’ like the Super Bowl game 2 years ago. At least the Bears should get good field position after the Indy scores when the Colts either kick it to Hester or squib it downfield a bit. The Indy return coverage was pretty poor last year, so don’t be surprised if Hester takes one back in the season opener. The Bears’ defense will be at full strength, but will be hard pressed to stop an Indy offense also at full strength. Once the Bears fall behind, don’t expect Kyle Orton, who WON the starting quarterback job (unlike Flacco in Baltimore who got the nod by injury default), to lead this team back from anywhere except the tunnel after halftime. Dwight Freeney is finally healthy at DE for the Colts, and he’s bullish to sack some Bears to begin the season. The Bears just don’t have the weapons to compete in this one, it’s like bringing chopsticks to a numchuck?, nunchuck?, somethin’chuck fight. Peyton Manning hasn’t seen any play time in the preseason, but hey, he’s Peyton, right?
A bursa-sac infected Manning in the hand is worth two Grossmans and Ortons in the bush.

My Line: Colts -14.7
Final Score Prediction: Colts 27 – Bears 13

Jets @ Dolphins: Brett Favre will have many occasions to wonder if hanging around to pad his records was really worth it this year. The Jets have at least tried to upgrade their front lines, adding A. Faneca at LG and K. Jenkins at NT. Favre will need an upgraded line as the Jets were the 29th most sacked team per pass plays in the league last year. He’ll probably be okay facing the Dolphins. The Dolphins switched to a 3-4 hybrid defense, and then lost their main hybrid player, Jason Taylor, to the Redskins. He may be slowing, but he’s surely better than whoever is going to take his place. The Dolphins’ offensive line is very young and will be tested by teams loading up to stop the run early in games. Ted Ginn will have to keep it in second gear to not outrun Pennington’s passes. Newly acquired E. Wilford may be a better choice at wide receiver. He’s a big body that can get up there to snag some lobs in the middle of the field. In spite of Parcells being brought into guide the Miami franchise, at least for now the Jets appear to have a leg up on them in terms of players on the field.

My Line: Dolphins +3
Final Score Prediction: Jets 21 – Dolphins 17

Chiefs @ Patriots: The rebuilding Chiefs visit a Patriots team that is probably still smoldering inside from losing the Super Bowl and a perfect season all in one game. Don’t expect the chip on Bellichick’s shoulder to diminish any time soon – the thing is a cancerous tumor by now. I’m assuming Brady will be at 100% with my line. The Patriots are famous for claiming a player to be falling off his death bed only to miraculously spring up, suit up, and play on any given Sunday. There’s plenty in the Chief’s linebacking corps and secondary for the Patriots’ passing game to exploit, so they won’t need to challenge the strength of the Chiefs’ defense, which is stopping the run. The Chief’s, with Croyle at QB, and a rejiggered O Line (last year’s line play was atrocious) are ill-suited to come from behind, so I expect them to stay behind. Blow out of week #1 here.

My Line: Patriots -20.9
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 10 – Patriots 31

Bucs @ Saints: Joey Galloway’s 36 year old groin just ain’t what it used to be, but he says he’s ready to enter and play an NFL game despite missing all of preseason and training camp before that. He’s clearly the Bucs’ best receiver when healthy at a position where the Bucs’ lack depth. E. Graham came in as an emergency running back replacement last year and is now back as the season starter. Behind him on the depth charts will be W. Dunn, who’s clearly aging and in a steep decline over the last 2 seasons.
You look at the Bucs roster and wonder how they score points…well, they’ve got a young and talented offensive line and they run the play-fake pretty damn well. Now they’ve swiped center J. Faine from the Saints as well. The Saints’ offensive line may not be any better than it was last year (trouble) but their defensive front should be better (if they can avoid injuries like last year), which will, of course, help their oft-torched secondary (which returns many of the same “players.”) The Saints did pick up linebacker J. Vilma from the Jets, so yes, their front seven has the potential to better than the very average squad it was last year. Offensively, with Brees, a recovering Deuce McCallister, some good wide receivers, and now Jeremy Shockey at TE, the Saints should put some points on the board. Last year they were #1 at converting in the red zone. The Bucs were a dismal 25th offensively in the red zone, and their defense was surprisingly poor in the red zone, ranked 29th, though only 6 defenses allowed their opponents fewer trips into the red zone. That is my grand prediction for this game – whichever team does better in the red zone will win.

My Line: Saints -2.5
Final Score Prediction: Bucs 20 – Saints 23

Rams @ Eagles: The Eagles at WR have been without starter Reggie Brown all preseason with a hammy and he’s just starting to practice now. Kevin Curtis herniated himself in a sporting fashion and is out indefinitely, which leaves only Baskett and Lewis listed as WRs on the depth chart. Still, with McNabb, Westbrook and a pretty good trio of TEs the Eagles should find enough offense to beat what looks to be another poor Rams’ pass defense this year. The Rams’ run defense wasn’t so hot either – let’s just call it a poor defense and leave it at that. The Rams will have two young guys on the right D Line, and two old guys on the left. They’d better hope the generation gap doesn’t lead to, err, gaps. Offensively, the Rams will put a healthy squad on the field for the first time since God knows when. Bulger, S. Jackson, O. Pace – all together? Think of the possibilities! The Rams had to resort to small ball last year, they’re bound to improve their yards per play in this campaign. The Eagles are young at linebacker, with all three starters 25 and below, and didn’t perform particularly well when taken as a whole last year. The Eagles love cornerbacks that can handle single-coverage to free up the rest of the team for the blitzing schemes the Eagles are famous for, so it made sense for them to go after and sign Asante Samuel. The Eagles’ defense shined in the red zone, ranking 1st. That will take a dip this year, but the Eagles’ offense should improve it’s poor red zone performance to balance the scales of red zone justice.

My Line: Eagles -8.9
Final Score Prediction: Rams 17 – Eagles 26

Panthers @ Chargers: Del Homme back at QB for the Panthers, but top WR Smith suspended for the first two games of the season, leaving the Panthers thin at WR. Merriman just wants to play ball.

My Line: Chargers -10
Final Score Prediction: Panthers 14 – Chargers 24

Cardinals @ 49ers: It will be interesting to see how the plodding 49ers’ offense of last year responds to Mike Martz’ high octane style now that he’s the new offensive coordinator. It might be like mixing oil and water. The 49er defensive gamely tried to salvage some wins for the team this year, and should play even better if they stay moderately healthy. Too bad for the 49ers, though, that the Cardinals match up well versus them on both sides of the ball. Warner and that great group of receivers should win the road opener, with the rest of the team putting in an intense effort remembering the two games the 49ers stole from them last year.

My Line: 49ers +6.9
Final Score Prediction: Cardinals 23 – 49ers 17

Jaguars @ Titans: Jags’ Collier shot over the weekend, always a distraction. Can MLB Mike Peterson stay healthy for them this year (he’s good when in there)? The Jags’ always match up well versus the Titans when Vince Young starts at QB, as he can’t exploit the weakness of the Jags’ defense, their pass defense, like many other capable quarterbacks can. The Titan’s defense won’t be able to pick up enough of the offensive slack to win.

My Line: Titans +3.5
Final Score Prediction: Jaguars 21 – Titans 17

Vikings @ Packers: Aaron Rodgers = time will tell, but he’s got a lot of talent around him. Packers’ defense – better versus the run than pass, a good match up for this game. The Vikings acquired Jared Allen, a magnificent addition at DE to help the Vikings’ notoriously weak pass rush. Allen wanted a trade to colder climes so that his next and NFL suspending DUI would at least be into a snow bank somewhere, preserving his vital organs and clotting his thinned blood. I’m not sure if the Vikings can be as super-human against the run this year, but they’ll still be very good. LT McKinnie suspended the first 4 for the Vikes, not helpful. QB Jackson recovering from an injury. Rodgers throwing arm should get a workout in this home opener.

My Line: Packers -5
Final Score Prediction: Vikings 20 – Packers 24

Broncos @ Raiders: Which team was able to patch up its’ run defense during the off season? These two were dead last last year. The Raiders at least had the excuse of injuries, so I say they’ll be better, as the Broncos didn’t do much up front heading into this season. Neither team had a very good pass defense last year, in spite of the much ballyhooed cornerbacks Asomugha (Oak) and Bailey (Den). Alright, Bailey is 30 now and sliding, but even Asomugha couldn’t cover the entire secondary. The Raiders shipped out their other starting corner, F. Washington, and brought in “destined to be perennially disgruntled” DeAngelo Hall in his place. Say “Hello” to two wins again this season, Mr. Hall, maybe you’ll learn to enjoy losing here in Oakland ala Randy Moss. The Broncos at least enjoy the luxury of a decent passing game, something the Raiders don’t figure to have. Still, I’m leanin’ on the Raiders to cover the home opener.

My Line: Raiders +1.7
Final Score Prediction: Broncos 23 – Raiders 21

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Let the Real Games Begin!

Those of you familiar with my work may recall that I don’t post lines until week #4. Well, I’m going to start at week #1 this year using last year’s stats modified with the new roster information plus other angles as I see fit. I’m mostly starting in week #1 so that I can be included in ThePredictionTrackers season-long linesmaking competition, where I finished up in second place for the second half of last season. So buyer beware, as it won’t be until week #4 that I’m exclusively using statistics from this season! I plan on having a free website with my lines, recommended plays and a ton of statistical goodies up later in the season

Redskins at Giants

Last Year’s Injury Levels and Notes:

Redskins: The Redskins dealt with injuries to the right side of their O-Line for all of 2007. Randy Thomas at RG was injured in Game 2 and only came back to start one more game late in the season. Jon Jansen at RT was injured in the first game of the season and done for the year, pressing Stephen Heyer into the starting role. Heyer dealt with his own injuries through the middle of the season before starting the remainder of the games from week #10 on out. All of these players are back and ready for the new season, with the younger Heyer keeping the starting job at RT versus the long in the tooth Jansen. The left side of the line was solid for Washington last year with Samuels, Kendall and Rabach missing only one start between them. The Redskins made a late run winning their last 4 regular season games to squeak into the playoffs. A disinterested Cowboys team with nothing to play for in week #17 gave them the final necessary regular season win. The Redskins late season streak was impressive when you look at the nagging injuries at wide receiver and the death of Sean Taylor they had to deal with. The key to their late season run was the insertion of the ancient Todd Collins into the starting lineup for the injured QB, Jason Campbell. Collins led the team with a 106.4 passer rating for the remainder of the season, due to his inability to throw any interceptions until the playoff loss versus Seattle. The Redskins have a new coach/offensive coordinator in Jim Zorn, who brings a West Coast style offense, so once again the Redskins have had to learn a new offensive playbook, something they may be accustomed to doing by now, lol. They’ve struggled in the preseason, so there’s a big question mark as to how many weeks it will take them to be comfortable with the offense. Also, they don’t have a very good group of receivers for a West Coast offense with S. Moss and Randel El as the starters.

Giants: The Giants only had their top two running backs, Jacobs and Ward, on the field at the same time for 4 games last season, from weeks 5 to 8, in which time they swept a weak line up of opponents – the Jets, Falcons, 49ers and Dolphins. Bradshaw filled in admirably late in the season, and ripped off an 88 yard TD run that greatly enhanced his per-run average as he only had 23 total attempts for the season. So, the Giants are pretty stacked at running back heading into week #1. The Giants’ success running the ball last season despite some revolving injuries can be largely attributed to the consistency of it’s offensive line, which remained intact for the entire season, and returns all 5 starters this year. They ran the ball 47% of the time last year, the 11th most in the NFL, and there’s no reason they won’t try to win games by establishing the run this year, as Manning is consistently inconsistent, as is the health and effort of their wide receivers and tight ends. Defensively, the Giants will be without their pass-rushing specialists Strahan and Umeniyiora this year, and that’s a pretty big drop off. The Giant’s pass-rush kept the pressure off of their suspect and oft-injured secondary. No such luck this year barring some miraculous developments on the D line.

What to Expect This Game:

Running, and lots of it. The Giants, as I mentioned, ran the ball 47% of the time last season. The Redskins? Even more, at 47.9%. Based on last year’s numbers alone the Giants would have an advantage in the running game, but that advantage is nullified by the Redskins’ starting the season with a healthy offensive line while the Giants start with a weaker defensive line. The Redskins had a better passing game last season, but I have the passing games rated near equal when you factor in the Redskins’ apparent struggles with the new system and coaches. The Giants’ have home field advantage, but they played a lot better on the road last year, lol. The crowd will be pumped to finally support the Super Bowl champs after not getting a single playoff game at home last year, and maybe a little bit of that energy will help the Giants. This game figures to be close, and I have the Giants winning by what comes down to home field advantage when last year’s numbers and this year’s factors are looked at.

My Line: Giants -1.7
Final Score Prediction: Redskins 17 – Giants 20