Eagles @ Ravens

The Eagles have been the laughing stock of the NFL this week. Not only did they barely hang on to a tie versus the Bengals, a team they should have shredded, but QB Donovan McNabb admitted to not understanding the overtime rule as implemented during the regular season. For the humiliation suffered on both accounts you have to figure the Eagles to be coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder.

The Ravens’ defense likes to present itself as big, bad and scary, but last week the Giants took a giant sized Edgar Allen Poe right on their heads, rushing for over 200 yards. The week before that the Texans ran the ball for a spiffy 4.7 yards per carry against them. Sure, the Ravens still have the 4th highest rated run defense by my numbers, but they’re no impregnable fortress, as the last two weeks have shown. Against the pass I have the Ravens’ defense ranked 11th, but that’s mostly on the back of some really good defensive games early in the season. In their last 6 games, they’ve only held one team to under 6 yards per pass attempt, and that team was the dreadful Raiders. As a matter of fact, the Ravens have given up 6.8 yards per attempt on average for their last 6 games.

The Ravens’ backsliding defense now hosts an unfavorable match up with the Eagles’ offense. The Eagles have been below average running the ball all year, but have an offense that doesn’t need to run it much to win. The Eagles in their last two games have faced a pass defense ranked better than the Ravens, the Giants, and one that’s only slightly worse, the Bengals, who’ve played equally well versus the pass over their last 6 games by comparison. I mention these last two opponents because the Eagles underperformed throwing the ball versus these two teams, averaging 5.45 yards per pass. In their four games prior to that they’d averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt. At worst, the Eagles should get near 6 yards per pass attempt, and I project them to do much better than that at 6.9 yards per pass attempt as the Ravens’ secondary has been getting progressively more injured over the course of the season, while the Eagles’ offense has been getting healthier (with the exception of Pro Bowl guard Shaun Andrews who has been out for quite a few weeks now).

The Eagles should have their fair share of offensive success with the pass and score some points. Will the Ravens be able to match their success offensively? The answer appears to be no, as the Ravens lack the majestic presence in the sky to match the Eagles. Joe Flacco is, by all measures, a success story this year, but you need to look at his individual performances to see the real picture here, and the picture is this: Flacco can pass on poor pass defenses, but not on good ones. Okay, it’s a pretty simple picture – one that a slow kindergartner could have sketched in a few minutes, but it’s the truth. Flacco has yet to throw for over 6 yards per pass attempt versus an above average pass defense this year. Not only do the Eagles have the 9th ranked pass defense, they’re number one at sacking opposing quarterbacks, and Flacco has been known to take his share of sacks. Heck, even the Browns sacked him twice, and they don’t sack anybody. The Texans, a below average pass rushing team, dropped him 3 times two games ago. The Giants only got him once last game, but Flacco threw 2 interceptions, so any game planning that involved taking less sacks may have directly translated into throwing more interceptions. The Ravens will likely be without starting left tackle Jared Gaither this week, and may slide right tackle Adam Terry over to take his place. Offensive line shuffling is rarely a good thing, even less so versus a team that brings the kind of pressure the Eagles do.

Can the Ravens pick up the slack by running the ball? Not likely. The Eagles’ run defense seems to have a threshold that causes opponent’s run offenses to slide pretty sharply to one side or the other. Most good running teams have gained about 5 yards per carry versus them, while average to poor running teams only go for about 2.8. Even a normally good running team like the Falcons only gained 3.2 yards per carry on them. The Ravens are just average running the ball, and the Eagles will be defending the run first as long as the game is within reach for either side, so except the Ravens’ yards per carry to be at the lower end of the threshold.

Ravens’ coach John Harbaugh spent 10 years as a coach with the Eagles prior to taking the head coaching position this year. Will familiarity be an advantage for him and his team? Maybe a little, but not enough to alter the spread for the game (unless they prove otherwise, lol).

In summary, the Ravens and rookie Joe Flacco will have a hard time gaining yards and points versus the Eagles’ stingy defense – a tricky blitzing defense known to give fits to inexperienced quarterbacks. The Eagles’ passing game should have enough success to win the game even if the running game gets shelved somewhere along the way.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – Ravens 17