Bills @ Chiefs Week #12

Week #12 finds the Bills, who started the season 5-1, at 5-5, which the simple math will tell you is a 4 game losing streak, including one loss a piece to each of their divisional foes. A real cause for concern has been the steadily declining play of QB Trent Edwards, who instead of looking like a Stanford graduate looks more like someone cramming for his GED in between offensive series. Last Monday night versus the Browns he seemed completely unsure of where and when to throw the ball even with the 4-alligator pass rush count the Browns were giving him. 2 of the 3 interceptions he threw on his first 6 pass attempts were clearly his fault. Still, the Bills had a chance to win the game with a makeable field goal at the end (wide right!) because the Browns have continued under Brady Quinn to be goal line teases, only 25th best at converting in the red zone.

This week the Bills are on the road at Kansas City. As bad as the Kansas City defense has been, it’s really not much worse than the Browns at this juncture, so there’s little reason to be optimistic that the Bills’ offense will suddenly return to early season form even though facing one of the worst defenses in the league. They had 20 points scored on offense versus the Browns and should get very near the same amount this week. In their favor is the fact that the Chiefs’ special teams coverage hasn’t been special so there’s a chance of a kick return score just like they had versus the Browns.

The most notable absences in the Chiefs’ defensive starting line up will be linebackers Donnie Edwards and Pat Thomas. The Bills’ defensive injuries include safety Donte Whitner (out) and safety Bryan Scott (questionable) which means there’s a 50% chance that the Bills will have 2 second stringers starting at safety this game. Their best (and looking like only at this point) pass rusher, Aaron Schobel, will be out again as well.

Offensively, the Bills will more than likely get starting WR Josh Reed back. If he’s near 100% I guess we’ll find out how much better the Buffalo passing game is with him back in the line up, as Hardy was ineffectual in replacing him and was benched in favor of Steve Johnson who played solidly with 3 receptions last game. #1 Receiver Lee Evans didn’t have a single catch on Monday night. Injuries along the offensive line have been doing no favors to the Bills as well, but those ailments seem to be clearing up. Honestly, this game is shaping up to be the litmus test as to whether Trent Edwards continues as the Bills’ QB of the future, because the grumbling in Buffalo is getting louder every week. If Edwards can’t get it done with his offense healthy versus a bottom-dwelling defense I don’t see how a full-blown QB controversy will not exist with this team once again.

The Chiefs, well aware that they have a largely non-existent pass rush with only 6 sacks on the year will do the same thing defensively that the Browns did -- rush 3 or 4 players while disguising coverages and hope Trent Edwards continues to make mistakes. The Chiefs, in spite of their poor record, have been really good at getting turnovers this year.

Offensively, the momentum the Chiefs have been building since Tyler Thigpen became the default QB starter and the spread offense he’s comfortable with running should continue in this game. In the spread with 2 tight ends lined up as receivers they’ve still been able to run quite a bit and their run game has improved dramatically facing defensive fronts forced to stretch themselves thinner from sideline to sideline. 3 of these 4 games have been without Larry “The Loogie” Johnson, as well. He returned last week and the Chiefs had another solid running game versus the Saints. The Chiefs’ passing game did have its’ worst outing in 4 weeks last game, but they should bounce back nicely this week versus an average Buffalo pass defense. WR Mark Bradley is listed as “?” though, for what it’s worth. Offensively, the Chiefs are playing better than the Bills in both facets right now, and if you can say that one team of two who have both lost their last 4 games has any kind of momentum, it’s the Chiefs.

The Bills are at a disadvantage coming in on a short week of rest, preparation and travel to face an offense unlike anything else they’ve seen this year. If the Chiefs can limit the Bills to good, but not multiple great kick returns Sunday (which won’t be easy, truthfully) I like their new found balanced offensive success to propel them to a home victory.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 21 – Chiefs 23