2011 Week 16 Results

Back to +10 units on the year.

2011 NFL WEEK 15 RESULTS

2011 NFL Week 14 Results

NFL 2011 WEEK 13 RESULTS

Had a good week in spite of the Monday Night letdown by the Jags. If they could've scored just one 2nd half touchdown we would've hit the 2nd half parlay to make us a small winner on the game. As is, we're now up 9.9 units on the year. Team Totals continue to be strong performers, going 3-1 this week. 2

2011 NFL Week 12 Results

Had a monster Sunday bookended by a lousy Thanksgiving Day and awful Monday Night game. +7.8 units for the week, which gets us back into the black for the season at +6.5 units. For the regular season now I'm +113 points against closing line moves, which is huge. Averaging almost 10 points of line savings a week is such an incredible value. Shame it hasn't translated into more actual profit, though, lol.

2011 NFL Week 10 Results

2011 NFL Week 9 Results

2011 NFL Week 8 Results

Carolina missing the 31 yard field goal at the end of the game was a real bad swing for us. IND not scoring in two trips inside the 5 in the 4th quarter cost us a play, but we did get a last minute score from NO to cash the Over. A bad week, though and now we're down a little bit for the season.

2011 NFL Week 07 Results

Continued frustration in Sports Cruncher Nation as we were unable to turn a profit for the 3rd straight week, being just barely down at -.38 of a unit. The play of the week on the SD/NYJ Under 45 should have been a sure winner, but couldn't overcome the fumble return touchdown the Chargers scored less than 2 minutes into the game. The Chargers ended up with less than 300 yards of offense, the Jets less than 400, so yeah, this game should have stayed well Under. I will admit to a couple of awful picks on the week, on TEN and the SEA/CLE Over. Man, how wrong were those ones, lol. Live, and hopefully learn, I certainly put notes into my handicapping tips file. 2nd half bets bailed us out for the 2nd time in 3 weeks, as we hit really well there. Funny, as last week they started 0 for 6 before hitting a 1/2 unit winner on the final game. A common thread continued this week, and it's been a royal pain in the ass in it's pursuit of us -- turnovers in a team's own territory when we have both that team and the Under involved in plays. The first 4 turnovers that went against us on Sunday were all turned into touchdowns against. Totals were slightly down this week, with the 1.5 unit top play being the big difference. Overall totals capping has remained strong, but picks on sides have just been a mix of poor luck and poor plays. It's been enough to make me make some alterations to my normal handicapping on sides, but that is not a bad thing, it's always good to try and improve.

2011 NFL Week 6 Results

In week 5 2nd half plays saved our bacon -- in week 6 they cooked our goose. Down a few units on the week as most plays with a close result went against us. The only game we caught a break in late was with CIN getting that defensive touchdown, but it was on the heels of them missing a 43 yard FG earlier in the quarter that would have had us covering. Totals went 5-3, with the CHI Under losing courtesy of a Devin Hester return td, and the CAR Over losing by 3 after Cam Newton turned the ball over in the red zone near the end of the 1st half, and failing to get points in the red zone (with almost no time left) at the end of the game. DAL got too conservative and lost outright after leading late in the 4th, killing the ML play. The no-breaks game of the week, though, was the SF/DET game, where DET missed a 52 yard field goal before half, just to see SF quickly gain a few yards and make a 55 yard field goal, for a 6 point swing. And then SF scores on 4th down by just inches after the refs donated about 11 yards to the 49ers on the drive. We're back to hovering just above even for the season as Lady Luck is a cold-hearted bitch who has just not been favoring us much this season. If luck balances out steady wins will come our way! Oh, and I continue to beat the market on line moves over, and over, and over, and over...

2011 NCAA Footbal Week 7 Results

Totals crushed for a second straight week, but sides were very inconsistent and 1st half plays didn't get it done.

2011 NCAA Week 06 Results

I outfoxed myself with the first half play on Miami (OH) and the 2nd half play on Army, losing both on a game that I favored Miami to win, as they did. Army had outscored every opponent in their first five games, they picked a fine time to score a touchdown in the first couple minutes of the second half and then score no more. Dumb 3 units lost there. The top top sides went 0-2 after Texas Tech's improbable backdoor cover, but I killed on pretty much everything else, going 8-1 on game totals and 2-0 on first half totals along the way. +7 units overall while saving a ton of points on line moves. A promising week at this juncture with more game data to process.

2011 NFL Week 05 Results

The addition of several late plays ultimately led to the week being a small loser. I really didn't like the 3 team total plays I added much, which is why they were all 1/2 unit plays. They were mostly made because two of them came with no juice and were on the right side of key numbers. The late teaser went down in flames as the Giants blew it against Seattle. Several of the marginal value Overs didn't get there either -- it looks as if the early weeks of mega-scoring are over as defenses are getting up to speed. The round robin of teasers went 1-2 as ARI, the weakest pick of the 3, lost as MIN scored a lot of cheap points early. And as for the Titans? Wow, they really laid an egg in that game. Damage was kept to a minimum for the week because of 2nd half plays, which went 8-2, picking up 4 units.

2011 NFL Week 04 Results

We got off to a great start on the morning games, up over 6 units, but then things cooled off from there on out and we finished up the week at about the same mark, up a little over 6 units. We swept our strong round robin of 3 teasers, which was nice. As as good breaks for us, I can only really think of Denver scoring in the 4th quarter on 4th and 7 to break a push on their Team Total and make the 2nd half Over play a winner. 2nd half bad luck seemed more abundant: we went 5-2 on Team Total plays, with the two losses coming because BUF couldn't score 7 2nd half points, and NYJ couldn't score 3 2nd half points (in FG range and Sanchez throws the pick six). That was too bad, as we were crushing Team Total plays, cashing the Over on TEN and CAR before halftime, pushing DEN at halftime, and we had St. Louis at Under 21 with zero points at halftime. Jason Campbell's interception at the NE 5, an OAK penalty at the one leading to another non TD scoring drive, and NE's goal line failure to score late in the 4th all conspired to lose the Over in that game for us, which still had a chance to push if OAK converts the last minute 2-point conversion, which they didn't. We lost another 2nd half play when CAR scored in the last 5 seconds, and would've pushed a larger 2nd half play if they made the subsequent 2-point conversion, which they didn't. It was fun to see SF upset PHI, but that score with 3+ minutes left cost us the Under. The Monday Night game was definitely our luckiest game of the week, as IND's 2 big passing plays for TDs helped the +10 bet on them never be in jeopardy, but wasn't helping the Under 42, which did ultimately win by 1 point as the result of 3 missed field goals in the game. We benefited from some missed PHI field goals as well, so this was definitely the first week where missed field goals helped us instead of hurting us. A solid week that was almost a great double digit winning week, but it puts us up 9.8 units including the preseason, and up Over 6 units for the regular season. Oh, it's also worth mentioning that we crushed the market on line moves, ending up 14.5 points ahead. In the only real head-scratching line move this past week, CAR/CHI going down when I loved the Over, I beat the market badly on that one, as the Over cashed against the closing number by halftime. Solid, baby.

2011 NFL Week 03 Results

Only down about 1/2 a unit for the week in NFL, but a very frustrating week nonetheless, as I hit for better than 50% against all sides, but on the games I actually bet went 2-6. And I'm kicking myself because I got gun-shy on some of the big dogs after the week #2 dog fiasco. My spreadsheet liked both KC and BUF, but I passed on both. Early on it looked like a good decision, as BUF and KC were down 21-0 and 10-0 respectively, but then of course BUF came roaring back to win and KC only lost by 3. Instead, I pressed slim value on some favorites that I might not normally bet, going 1-2 on those added plays. These early weeks are when I feel less confident in my lines, but it's been random bad luck that even though I'm 51% on the sides for every game on the year, I'm down 10 units on the actual side bets I've made, leaving us just barely in the positive for the regular season. Sides have always been my toughest bet to show a good profit for -- indeed, I've had a solid winning season before when I didn't make a dime on sides overall. Oh well, I've started off the first month of the NFL in the hole more than once and ended up with good winning seasons every time but once -- that's the life of a statistics based handicapper.

2011 NFL Week 02 Results

Cue the lowlights reel, and get your popcorn. But first, let's start with the good. We saved 6 points on market moves, the only game that ended up really going against our midweek position was MIN, as that line went from around -3 EV to -1 or even pick right before kickoff. Suckers, I thought, as MIN romped to a 17-0 halftime lead. And then it was deja vu for MIN in the second half, sucking hopelessly and ultimately losing by 3. Other painful ways to lose: SD driving, down by 6 in the 4th quarter, and then a turnover, which SD ended up with 4 of, to 0 for NE. And still we would've pushed if SD doesn't get stuffed on the goal line before half. SF with a 10 point 4th quarter lead, and then coming within a yard of not even pushing as a +3 dog. MIA turning it over inside their own 10, giving a touchdown that ended up being the difference in a push on the spread. And MIA's Carpenter missing 2 medium to short FGs. KC losing RB Charles in the first quarter -- though it probably wouldn't have made a difference. CHI hanging in there with NO until their starting right tackle goes down early in the 3rd, while NO went on to get their six sacks of the day after that. GB with the ball with under 3 minutes to play, and all I need is for them to pick up a first down, maybe two, and run out the clock, but no, they throw a 70+ yard touchdown to kill both the Under and CAR, who had been covering all day. Our only luck on the day was CAR using the final 2 minutes to come back and cover one of the top plays of the week. The Jaguars -- well, they did have a truckload of turnovers, but hard to say it would've mattered the way they were dominated. The other top play of the day, TEN, was an upset winner, as I predicted. And then on to Monday Night, where a ball tipped 2 times and hauled in for a touchdown with 20+ seconds left in the first half ends up being the difference between pushing and winning.

Week 1 and Week 2 are a bigger gamble than usual, as it can be hard to strike the right balance between last year's stats and the way teams are looking this year. In all honestly I leaned stronger to last year's performances, and it ended up hurting me a little bit -- but it's a tough call, as for the most part the market was backing me up or at least neutral on my picks.

So up, yes, still up for the regular season, but it's less than a unit. Hey, it stinks to give back a nice chunk of change made on week #1, but showing any kind of profit through the first 3 weeks of the season is a bonus, as far as I'm concerned, as it's from week #4 on where I'm using exclusively this year's statistics.

I'll also be making some changes to my line-making formulas in an effort to get them sharper, as always.

2011 NFL Week 01 Results

On our way to a monster day on Sunday until late punt returns for touchdowns in SF and ARI made it just a really good day, up almost 8 bets. I stepped in front of a Patriots' freight train Monday Night, unfortunately. The Patriots like the no-huddle. A lot. Lesson learned. Recovered the total bet with the Over cashing in the OAK/DEN game.

Speaking of Overs, holy smokes, 12-3-1 on opening week, traditionally a lower scoring week? Scoring was oozing out from everywhere. That I went 5-0 on my Over plays is impressive, I guess, but more impressive given that only 3 games went Under is that on the 5 games I ended up betting Under I went 2-2-1, getting the push on the PHI/STL game at Under 44. I actually had a small unposted winner on the only Under I didn't officially release as a play, in the TEN/JAX game. Yes, definitely more proud of my deft maneuvering on the Unders in such a high-scoring week.

+6.05 Units for the week, always nice to start the regular season in the black.

NCAAF Week #1: 3-0

I capped a few NCAA games this past week and NAILED IT, lol. They were originally sent out to all clients at the site I now call home, http://www.powerhousepicks.com, as well as posted in the free picks section of the forum there. If you register at the forum there you can see the picks and write-ups, along with future free picks, of course.

+3.4 Units Preseason 2011 NFL final record

I'd personally like to bid farewell to the randomness of preseason ball and welcome in the regular season.

Preseason Week #4 Results NFL 2011

The final scores in many of these games paint an ugly picture of this week's picks. The Boschian landscape came courtesy of a bad turnover ratio, though. Of the 9 games in which I did write-ups or analysis, we had a combined turnover ratio of -10, which is awful luck for that many games. Only one of the analyzed teams were out-gained by their opponent (JAX -- NE was also, but that was just a thrown in Wong teaser that I didn't handicap). ATL had almost twice as many offensive yards as BAL. DAL outgained MIA by 101 yards (missed 2 50 yard fgs, lost by 14), NO actually outgained TEN by 43 yards, and SD outgained SF by 50. The CLE/CHI Under, which lost by a point -- that game saw only a combined 479 yards of offense, so the yards per point ratio was way below normal in that game. I'm not going to harp on misfortune every time it happens, but extreme cases like this week one are worth taking a closer look at, lol.

Preseason Week #3 Results NFL 2011

Preseason Week #2 Results NFL 2011

I wasn't specific with units in spite of calling some plays stronger, and some weaker/small, so I've recorded everything as a flat 1 unit. During the regular season I'm very specific with my units.

Free Play 8/25/11 Thursday Night.

Head on over to the forum at http://www.powerhousepicks.com, sign up, and check out the write-up for the CAR@CIN game tonight!

The Sports Cruncher returns for 2011 football!

Crushed it in week #2 of the preseason, complete with great write ups. :)
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=857945

It looks like I'll be working with an industry veteran on a new handicapping site he's creating, complete with podcasts, free picks as well as paid picks/subscriptions. Details to come here very soon!

The new site is now up, email me at thesportscruncher@hotmail.com for more info.