Eagles @ Bengals

The Eagles, as a football team, could be compared to undersized bullies. They pick on weaker opponents relentlessly, but often get punched right back in the face and lose when facing opponents who possess strong running games with powerful backs. The Giants’ run game ground the Eagles to a patriotic pulp last week, showing little respect for the national bird. The Redskins’ potent run offense with Portis also controlled the game in a Philly loss in week #5. The 49ers led late into the game with Gore goring the small Eagles’ defense until a complete and utter meltdown by O’Sullivan in the 4th quarter gave the Eagles a storm from behind cover.

The Eagles’ defense, like the Colts, is one built to play for a team that holds the lead in the second half. Both are small and quick with better secondaries than defensive lines, and indeed their defensive lines are better pass rushers than ground stoppers. The Eagles’ defense feasts on opposing quarterbacks in obvious passing situations as their bevy of blitzes leads to 3.11 sacks and 1 interception per game. Look at poor Ben Roethlisberger who was sacked an astonishing 9 times when trying to lead his team from behind in week #3 (though I think he was injured in that game and may not have taken all of those sacks himself). The Eagles have averaged 4.4 sacks per game in the games they’ve won, and only 1.5 in the games they’ve lost. Clearly, once they’re not so concerned with stopping the run they thrive defensively.

Fortunately for the Eagles’ defense, they’re back to playing a team that is more patsy than powerful. The Bengals have been atrocious this year, and just managed to grab their first victory of the season two weeks ago at home versus the Jaguars before their bye. The Bengals, of course, have been without QB Carson Palmer the last 6 games, and have suffered for it. Palmer had gotten off to a slow start facing 3 of the toughest defenses in the league – the Ravens’, Titans’ and Giants’, but had improved each game and indeed pushed the Giants to overtime before losing. Since Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken over at QB the Bengals have thrown for over 200 yards only once in 6 games and have averaged just 141 yards passing per game, and when you’re trying to make up a deficit for most of the game those are pathetic numbers. Their run offense has improved since bringing in Cedric Benson – they’ve averaged 111 run yards per game and almost 4.5 yards per carry in their last 3. You’d think (though you never know with some coaches) that the Bengals would like to shorten this game with repeated runs by Cedric Benson. If they’re really interested in winning, they need to limit Fitzpatrick’s pass attempts in this game. The Bengals’ QBs have been sacked 3.3 times per game and thrown 1.1 interceptions per game. Fitzpatrick has also been fumble-prone when taking hits in the backfield. Being a fairly inexperienced quarterback, he’s exactly the kind of quarterback the Eagles’ defense could demolish if the run game has to be limited in the second half.

So I expect the Bengals to run as much as humanly possible on offense as that figures to be their best chance for success and serves the added beneficial purpose of shortening the game. Defensively is there anything they can do to limit the Eagles’ offensive weapons? The answer is a maybe leaning towards no. The Bengals have been a fair defensive team this year, certainly better than last year’s injured and inept squad. They’re better at defending the pass than the run, which suits them as the Eagles are better at passing than running. Clearly the Eagles will try to get their run game going versus a below average run defense, as all pass attacks benefit from believable play action. McNabb has gotten off to many slow starts as of late, so maybe the Eagles will come out running for a change. Overall, it will be hard for the Bengals to consistently stop the Eagles’ offense as the Eagles should do better than league average in yards per play for both their running and passing plays. When you can’t cheat with an extra player to stop either the run or the pass, you’re basically at the mercy of the opponent’s offensive execution, and the Eagles have certainly been known to execute, ne assassinate weak defenses over the years. Look for the Eagles to be the bullies on the road again in a similar match up to the one they faced two weeks ago in Seattle. Seattle scored on a 90 yard touchdown pass on their first offensive play of the game, but that was the end of it as the Eagles went on to win 26-7. The numbers indicate this game will be pretty near a carbon copy of that one.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – Bengals 10


I'll post two more write ups tomorrow morning, BOL to everyone this week!