Monday, September 24, 2012

Fare Thee Well, NFL & Your *#@%ing Replacement Refs.

I'd already decided to hang up my NFL handicapping cleats for the season and only do NCAA football -- I don't have time to do both, and then SEA goes and scores a 24 yard touchdown with no time remaining to make me a small loser on the NFL season instead of small winner...talk about a sign. Sheesh. Not a lucky weekend, not at all. So yeah, this weekend just seemed so random to me (I was still leaning on last year's stats, normally I start using current year stats only beginning in week 4) -- and usually I'm fine with that early in the season, as my numbers get stronger as the year progresses. But I literally don't have time to play enough poker and spend time with the family at the rate I'm going. I also started playing disc golf this year, and I'm addicted to it, so I'm picking the healthy hobby over the stress of NFL capping. I may come back to it at some point in the future, I don't know. It's been fun, and profitable (though not as profitable as poker), but I'm enjoying the NCAA more, so... If you're used to me only as an NFL guy check out my NCAA stuff. I was a loser on the season last year in NCAA (had a bad stretch of luck for a few weeks that killed my season), so we'll see how it goes this season. If I hit a real bad week in NCAA and drop into the negative I may also just call it a year there.

Saturday, September 15, 2012

NCAA Football Results Through Week #3

That's actually week #2 results above (minus the 2nd half plays which I threw up late online and lost some on -- I usually don't post those for NCAA and won't in the future, lol). In week #1 I was 3-3 so down .3 units of juice there as well.

Monday, September 10, 2012

This Week's Plays

NFL Thread: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=921356 NCAA Thread: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=921353&page=1

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

2012 Week #2 NCAA Football Plays

1 Unit each: South Florida/Nevada Over 54 Nebraska -5 Ball St. +27.5 W. Kentucky +40 Akron +23.5 UL-Lafayette +3 USC/Syracuse Over 59 UTEP +7.5 UTEP/Ole Miss Under 55.5 Louisiana Tech -3.5 Louisiana Tech/Houston Under 60.5 Oklahoma State -10.5

2012 Week #1 NFL Plays

1 Unit each: MIA/HOU UNDER 43 ATL ML (-125) ATL/KC OVER 41.5 OAK +1 SD/OAK UNDER 47.5 CAR -1 (-125) 2/3 Unit each: PIT +1 JAC +3.5 See comments for any additional plays.

Monday, August 27, 2012

2012 NFLX Week 4 Plays

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=918718 All plays will be posted at the link.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

NFLx Week #3 Plays

All my posting for this week will be done here: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=917797

Monday, August 13, 2012

2012 NFL Preseason Week #2 Plays

1 Unit Each: CLE/GB OVER 39 (FANGLE PLAY OF THE WEEK) PHI/NE OVER 40 ATL -3.5 TEN/TB UNDER 37 DET/BAL OVER 37.5 MIA/CAR OVER 36 BUF/MIN UNDER 36 SF/HOU UNDER 36 DEN -2.5 2/3 Unit Each: TEN +2.5 WAS +1 I will probably be adding plays on BAL & MIN later in the week. ***Adding DAL/SD Under 37 for 1 Unit*** It's a pretty strong fangle play.

Monday, February 20, 2012

2011 NFL Final Results (6 of 7 winning seasons)

Had a good playoff run to cap off an otherwise mediocre winning season. We had some terrible luck on sides early in the season, a stretch where when picking all sides I was near 50% but on games bet was well below that. The end result was that I never pulled out of the red on sides for the season. I've actually done that before; been a small loser on sides for a season but a pretty good winner overall because of success in the other categories. Since pro style teasers are hard to come by nowadays with fewer book options for US players and many books playing games with their numbers to avoid being hit by pro style teasers the profit from teasers has predictably come way down from where it was years ago. My best overall category this year was bets on Team Total points. I did really, really well on those -- they are one of the absolute best ways to take advantage of key scoring numbers when wagering. We saved an amazing number of points against closing numbers this year, around 150. I haven't always kept track of the total number of points saved, but the last season I did it was also over 100. This is evidence of being on the sharp side of the market, for better or worse -- usually better, as I've finished up a winner in 6 of the 7 seasons I've handicapped the NFL using my complex spreadsheet system to look for line value.

2011 NFL Playoffs Results

The numbers really shone in the playoffs, as I turned a profit in every week, which was a nice way to end an otherwise mediocre winning season.