Saints @ Chiefs Week #11

“It’s What’s Known as a Mismatch Part II”

Oh when the Saint go marching on the road this year, the marching has turned to martyrdom in every case. They did win in London, however, and rarely has a contingent of Catholic-named crusaders been so cordially courted on the Anglican Isle (I’m still waiting for the Steelers to play there so we can see side by side photos of the two Big Bens every half hour on the NFL network for an entire week). The last time the Saints ventured out of the bayou up into the Midwest was in week #3 versus the Broncos. A Martin Grammatical error cost them the game – anything less than 50 yards is a chip shot in Denver, so his 43 yard miss that would have given them a 1 point lead was inexcusable.

The Saint’s road woes are not attributable to a lack of offense, just a lack of turning those yards into points. Well, that and their defense, which has given up an average of 31.8 points on the road this year. Even in their one lone blowout road loss, 7-30 at Carolina, they still outgained the Panthers in total yards. Drew Brees and the Saints have the highest yards per pass average by my rescored stats this year, and they haven’t even played versus any of the 8 weakest secondaries in the league. That’s impressive. The Broncos are the weakest secondary they’ve played ranked 24th. The Chiefs are ranked 29th and have several injured defensive starters who are both out and questionable coming into this game. Who knows, maybe it’s a bad news/good news situation for the Chiefs. When you’re ranked near last in defense maybe the replacements will bring up your level of play a little. Or maybe the Saints will score on every possession. Not only are the Chiefs the weakest secondary the Saints have faced, the Chiefs are dead last in the league in sack percentage per pass plays defensed, while the Saints are #1 in fewest sacks per passing plays allowed. It’s what’s known as a mismatch, part II.

Deuce McCallister isn’t going to return two punts for touchdowns in a game anytime soon, but he’s a better short yardage back than Reggie Bush, which is something any predominantly passing team needs to convert those short 3rd downs. Running back by committee is really all you need to have decent success versus the Chiefs’ run defense, which is ranked dead last in the league. The weather will be fairly mild by Kansas City mid-November standards, so nothing stands in the way of the Saints having a huge offensive game, except the turnovers and missed field goals that have plagued them in enemy territory. With average luck, it won’t be an issue.

The Chiefs’ offense has undergone a recent resurrection by putting last-man-standing QB Thigpen into a semi-spread offense with many shotgun snaps like the system he played in during his college years. They put up a very impressive amount of yards and points versus a tough Tampa Bay defense in their last home game two weeks ago. RB Larry Johnson returns to the field for the first time in about a month. Note to Saints’ defenders: make sure you settle for no less than a 15 yard penalty if he spits in your face. The Saints’ defense is very vulnerable to the long ball, so expect the Chiefs to attack deep as well – they had a WR option play that resulted in a 40+ yard td pass to no other than QB Thigpen versus Tampa. If the Chiefs fall behind as expected, the second half should be an entertaining air-fest that puts this game Over the total even if the first half scoring has lagged a little behind.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 34 – Chiefs 23