NFC Home Field Advantage Game - GB & Dal

NFC Home Field Advantage Game

Legend

Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value

Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

Green Bay/+7/+6/Green 1.7% value

Dallas/51.5/51.5/No value

These isolated games played on Thursday have featured very tight lines the last couple of weeks. Last week the three superior teams all covered the chalk, two of them on the road. Interestingly, both of these teams may prefer to meet each other on the road in the playoffs, lol. The Packers will want a fair weather Dallas game to help their passing game, while Dallas may prefer a game at Lambeau with nasty weather as they have the superior run game. Still, I don’t think you’ll see either team throwing this game tonight just to lose home field advantage for the NFC championship game, lol.

When Green Bay is on offense, it seems obvious what they will do. They’ll line up with a minimum of three wide receiver sets. David Lee, their TE, has near as many catches as their wide receivers, so you’re looking at a minimum of four receiving threats on every play. Favre will take most snaps out of the gun. Green Bay will line up Grant or Morency in the backfield and will run the occasional draw and dump off passes to them. Morency actually has more pass receptions than run attempts, while Grant has a run to catch ratio of four to one. Last week the Packers only ran the ball once they had a large lead in the second half. As they don’t figure to ever be in that situation tonight, the Packers will be passing on almost every play. This gives the Dallas defense the advantage of knowing what they’re facing on most downs. I would expect the Cowboys to bring either Ware from the right side or Ellis from the left side on almost every play. These two have got to be salivating coming into this game knowing that at least one of them will have the opportunity for a sack on almost every play. Dallas will want to put enough pressure on Favre to take away the long balls over the top that take more time to set up. They’ll want to force Favre into quicker, shorter routes and hope for mistakes or incompletions.

When Dallas is on offense, they’ll run first to set up the pass. They actually run the ball a higher percentage of time than the league average, though of course that average is probably skewed somewhat as they’ve had good leads late and run more then. Still, they’ve been very successful running the ball as they’ve averaged 4.42 yards per carry, so whether a team has expected the run or not the Cowboys have been successful regardless. The Packers have lost two defensive tackles recently, Jolly and Cole, which leaves them with only Pickett, Williams, and the undersized Montgomery to play inside on their four man defensive front. A steady dose of inside running will freeze the Green Bay linebackers and safeties enough to free up the big passing plays down the field for the Cowboys. So while the Dallas defense will usually know what’s coming, the Green Bay defense will have to have their heads and eyes in the game on every play or they’ll run the risk of giving up a big play to the big play capable Dallas offense.

The danger with betting the Cowboys in this game is that unless they have a larger than thirteen point lead late in this game, the Packers are entirely capable of getting the late back door score to cover the spread. There’s just too much volatility with these two good offensive and defensive teams to make a play with any confidence, be it on a side or the total. I’d recommend keeping your money in your pocket and heading down to your favorite sports bar (make sure they have the NFL Network, lol) to enjoy the game, and if you know my betting style you know there’s not many games I recommend passing on completely. This is one of them.

Final Score Prediction: Green Bay 23 – Dallas 28

Week #12 Recap

Week #12 Recap

Final Score Prediction:__Green Bay 27 -- Detroit 24
Actual Final Score:______Green Bay 37 -- Detroit 26

The Lions had too many dropped balls, something that didn't plague the Packers as
Brett Favre reeled off 20 straight completions. Still, the Lions had a shot at
the back door cover but came up empty. Detroits' ability to run the ball in
this game could spell trouble for the Packers on Thursday versus Dallas.

1/2 Unit: Packers Pick 2nd half/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__New York Jets 13 -- Dallas 35
Actual Final Score:______New York Jets 3 -- Dallas 35

The Dallas defense predictably made it tough on Kellen Clemens in the first road
start of his career. I anticipated one defensive score by the Cowboys and it
came in late in the first half which had Dallas covering the spread by halftime.
I saw no reason why the Jets would start to be able to move the ball in the
2nd half, so I piled on for some more.

1 Unit: Cowboys -13.5/Winner
1 Unit: Under 21.5 2nd half/Winner
3/4 Unit: Cowboys -7 2nd half/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Indianapolis 26 -- Atlanta 16
Actual Final Score:______Indianapolis 31 -- Atlanta 13

The Colts' kindly spotted the home team a 10 point lead and then proceeded to
crush them the rest of the way. Anthony Gonzalez had a good game at WR filling
in for Marvin Harrison, showing no ill-effects from the broken finger he sustained
a couple of weeks ago. The Falcons also had a chance for the back door cover
but came up empty. The small "for fun" 2nd half parlay would'nt have lost if the
Falcons had managed to put even a meager field goal on the board in the 2nd half.

1/6 Unit: Falcons +7, Under 21 2nd half parlay/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Denver 21 -- Chicago 20
Actual Final Score:______Denver 34 -- Chicago 37

The Bears' "Special Teams Spectacular" sunk the otherwise good bets on the Broncos
in this game, lol. Hester has burned me before, and he burned me again. He's
hard to handicap because you never know if teams are going to kick to him or not.
One thing you can count on though -- the Bears will usually have good field position
after receiving most kicks because of his presence on the field. This game still
looked in the bag with a 14 point lead deep into the 4th quarter, but alas,
the Bears converted on a 4th and goal to get the late tie, and went on to the OT
victory. The Bears getting the last 3 scores of the game killed the "No 3 Unanswered
Scores" bet as well. An unbearably bad bad beat, lol.

1/2 Unit: Broncos +2.5/Loser
1/2 Unit: Broncos Pick 2nd half/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Tennessee 20 -- Cincinatti 24
Actual Final Score:______Tennessee 6 -- Cincinatti 35

The Titans' 2nd consecutive performance of their "Road No-Show" went as planned as
Carson Palmer passed over them like marshmallow-topped yams at the Thanksgiving
table. The Titans, playing from behind, had to abandon the running game with
the predictable result of gaining some passing yards while failing to convert them
into points.

1 Unit: Bengals +2/Winner
1/2 Unit: Titans' Team Total Under 24/Winner


Final Score Prediction:__Buffalo 14 -- Jacksonville 24
Actual Final Score:______Buffalo 14 -- Jacksonville 36

As predicted, the Jaguars were able to physically wear down the Bills' defense in
the second half which led to a couple of easy late touchdown runs. The second half
bets were looking dicey until those two late scores sealed the deal. I love the
games that follow the script.

1/2 Unit: Jaguars -7.5/Winner
1 Unit: Over 35.5/Winner
1 Unit: Jaguars -3 2nd half/Winner
1/3 Unit: Jaguars -5.5/Over 17.5 1st half parlay/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Oakland 12 -- Kansas City 21
Actual Final Score:______Oakland 20 -- Kansas City 17

Things were pretty much on pace to cash until the KC defense gave up a late drive
to the Raiders for the go ahead score and win. "Boneheaded Coach of the Week" award
number 1 goes to Herm Edwards for wasting two timeouts on a spot that clearly
wasn't going to be changed, and for the generally predictable/defeatable play
calling through out the game that led to numerous failed 3rd down tries. For the
love of God, when you're in the "too far to kick, too close to punt, might as well
go for it on 4th and short" territory, how's about a play-action on 3rd and 1 that
could lead to a big play and THEN run it on 4th and 1, instead of running on 3rd
and 1 (predictable) and losing yards? Way to get out-coached by a rookie, Herm.
Everyone was to blame for the loss except Kolby Smith, RB. Croyle missed some
easy throws, as did his receivers, and the defense did an overall poor job as well
in a game they could've dominated.

1/2 Unit: CHiefs -3 1st half/Winner
1 Unit: Chiefs -3.5/Loser
1/2 Unit: Chiefs -1 2nd half/Loser
1/2 Unit: Raiders' Team Total Under 15/Loser
1/3 Unit: No Score last 2 minutes of 1st half/Winner


Final Score Prediction:__Houston 27 -- Cleveland 28
Actual Final Score:______Houston 17 -- Cleveland 27

Houston had the early 7-0 lead in this game but then suffered from numerous stalled
drives in Cleveland territory for the remainder of the game, some of them
because of turnovers. I don't know, maybe the fact that Schaub played his college
ball at Virginia and has only played with Atlanta and Houston in the pros made
his game suffer in the 40 degree Cleveland temperature. He doesn't even have
moderately-cold game weather experience, lol. The Browns were able to slow down
the game with Jamal Lewis running successfully in the second half to protect
their lead, which made the Over come up a touchdown short as well.

1/2 Unit: Texans +4/Loser
1/2 Unit: Texans ML/Loser
1/2 Unit: Over 51/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Seattle 24 -- Saint Louis 20
Actual Final Score:______Seattle 24 -- Saint Louis 19

It took Marc Bulger leaving the game and a total Rams' goalline screw up
at the end of the game to preserve the Seattle come from behind victory. I'd
pretty much written this one off at halftime, so it's nice to get the
occasional resurrected winner.

Seattle -3/Winner


Final Score Prediction:__Minnesota 21 -- NY Giants 20
Actual Final Score:______Minnesota 41 -- NY Giants 17

The underdog play of the week came through in stunning fashion as the Vikings
returned 3 Manning interceptions for touchdowns. The Giants, missing their top two
running backs, had very little success in the running game. Forced to the air,
the Vikings' took advantage of Plaxico's continual lack of practice by picking
off balls thrown to his area where he and Eli were not on the same page. The
21 instant turnover points came in handy, as the Giants actually did a good job
of limiting Chester Taylor and the Vikings' running yard to well below 100. T.
Jackson completed 10 of 12, with the bulk of the yards coming on the first play
of the game -- the 70-80 yard TD strike to Rice. I predicted Eli wouldn't be able
to lead his team to victory without a running game, and the proof is in the
final score pudding.

1 Unit: Vikings +7.5/Winner
1/4 Unit: Vikings ML/Winner
1/4 Unit: Vikings +4, Under 20 1st half parlay/Loser
1/2 Unit: Vikings' Team Total Over 17/Winner
1/2 Unit: Giants' Team Total Under 24/Winner
1/3 Unit: No 3 Unanswered Scores/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__New Orleans 20 -- Carolina 23
Actual Final Score:______New Orleans 30 -- Carolina 6

This one was doomed as soon as Vinny Testaverde woke up with a sore back and
was scratched as available in this game. I decided to let the then slim value ride
and indeed it rode me right into the ground. Carr got off to a horrible start,
and the Panthers' ground game never got going either. Even the Saints' secondary
was able to make enough plays to keep the Panthers from scoring in the second
half when they knew the pass was coming. The Over still had a good chance, needing
only 5 points in the 4th quarter for the win, but of course neither team scored
a single point in the 4th.

1 Unit: Panthers +3/Loser
1/2 Unit: Over 41/Loser
1/3 Unit: No 3 Unanswered Scores/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Washington 17 -- Tampa Bay 24
Actual Final Score:______Washington 13 -- Tampa Bay 19

Jeff Garcia left very early in this game with an injury, and all 19 points the
Bucs scored in the first half came on drives that started on the 50 or in
Washington territory. My second half O/U line was 13, so I forced to take the
Under 17.5 second half play and hope for 15 to 17 second half points for the
middle with the game O/U plays. The Bucs did nothing with Gradkowski at QB in
the 3rd quarter as the Redskins crept back into the game. Garcia came back
into the game in the 4th quarter for a couple of 3 and outs as the Bucs were
not doing much besides trying to protect their 6 point lead. At 19-13, my $$$
was going to come out near the same whether the Redskins got the late TD and
the 19-20 victory or not, but I was hoping for them to fail to help my ATS
record with the Bucs -3, plus there was always a chance the Bucs could come
back and win after the Redskins scored anyway, which would make me a loser for
the game. None of this interests you I'm sure, end of story, lol.

1 Unit: Bucs -3/Winner
1/2 Unit: Over 36.5/Loser
1/2 Unit: Over 37/Loser
1 Unit: Under 17.5 2nd half/Winner
1/4 Unit: Bucs -2.5/Over 18.5 1st half parlay/Winner


Final Score Prediction:__San Francisco 14 -- Arizona 23
Actual Final Score:______San Francisco 37 -- ARizone 31

Two weeks ago the Cardinals won on the road forcing turnovers versus the Bengals
in spite of being seriously outgained in yardage and yards per play. The 49ers
returned the karmic favor by beating the Cardinals in the same fashion. The
Cardinals outgained the 49ers 552 to 374 yards, while averaging a whopping 7.17
yards per play (a season best) versus 5.58. It was the 2 interceptions and 2
fumbles lost that did them in, as the 49ers committed no turnovers in the game.
Kurt Warner, in what has become expected fashion, was stripped in the endzone
in OT and the 49ers fell on the ball for the win. The Cardinals were really hurt
by not having defenders Bertrand Berry (IR), Adrian Wilson and Aaron Francisco for
this game, as the 49ers were able to get their season high in both passing AND
rushing yards in this game. The Cardinals have given up big yards in the 2 games
they've been without Berry and Wilson.

This game started with some good luck -- the 49ers scoring the tying TD with 34 seconds
left in the 1st quarter to win the first quarter bet, but ended with bad luck
when Frank Gore scored on a 35 yard touchdown run with 1:25 left in the game. That
touchdown made it 21 points scored in the second half, pushing my second half
Under 21 bet which went on to lose when the Cardinals got the inevitable field goal
to tie the game with a couple of seconds left on the clock.

1/2 Unit: 49ers +3 1st quarter/Winner
1 Unit: Under 21 2nd half/Loser
1/2 Unit: Under 38/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Baltimore 12 -- San Diego 26
Actual Final Score:______Baltimore 14 -- San Diego 32

Followed the script, with the added bonus of some luck in the form of only 3
4th quarter points to bring home the second half Under 19.5. I was worried when
the Chargers had it 1st and 10 at the Baltiore 30 midway through the 4th, but
after two penalties they were back at the 50 and just ran the ball all 3
downs to eat the clock. Knowing that the Chargers tend to be very conservative
with a lead played a small role in making the second half Under bet.

Phillip Rivers had a pretty good game after struggling in the last couple -- something
opposing QBs have been able to do against the Ravens' secondary lately.

1/2 Unit: Chargers -8.5/Winner
1/2 Unit: Under 38.5/Loser
1 Unit: Under 19.5 2nd half/Winner
1/3 Unit: No Score Last 2 Minutes of 1st half/Loser
1/2 Unit: Ravens' Team Total Under 14.5/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Philadelphia 17 -- New England 34
Actual Final Score:______Philadelphia 28 -- New England 31

Not many seemed to have faith in the Eagles this last week. The Books set an
increasingly higher/ridiculous line and were still able to snare a craters load
worth of Patriot money in this contest. The Eagles were simply too good of a
team to face a point spread this large. The Eagles coming up a little bit short
at the end of the game was still disappointing as I had a 1/6 Unit unposted ML
play on them that would've paid off very nicely, lol. Still, I'm glad to have
had a good Sunday Night game for once this season. I'd said that I'd prefer to
have AJ Feeley play this game, and boy did that hold true. No way McNabb
would've had the same amount of success in this game. He needs to sit for the
rest of the year and see how his leg is next year. And can you believe that the
Patriots actually failed to convert some 3rd and 4th downs? Crazy, eh?
Not really, it was bound to happen sooner rather than later, but it was still
cause for celebration every time it happened, lol.

1 Unit: Eagles +22/Winner
1/2 Unit: Under 52/Loser
1/2 Unit: Eagles +14.5 2nd half (-125)/Winner
1/2 Unit: Eagles' Team Total Over 13.5/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Miami 10 -- Pittsburgh 27
Actual Final Score:______Miami 0 --- Pittsburgh 3

A bittersweet end to week 12, as I made money in this game but left more on
the table. I had to leave the house a couple of hours prior to kickoff and
didn't know if I'd be back before the game started. I'd made the Under 43 bet
early in the week, and watched the number drop steadily throughout the week.
The last forecast I saw before I left said the rain would be abating with
minimal wind during the game. This put my final O/U line for the game at 40,
so I decided to go for the middle with the Over 38 then available. I hadn't
seen any video of the field, and it ended up costing me. I had no idea that
Heinz Field was going to be in such miserable condition. When I got back
home and saw the field condition before kickoff I was cursing myself for having
gone for the middle, as it seemed highly unlikely this game would reach the
30's on such a horrible field. At the very least, I got half of the unit back
by betting the second half Under 14.5. I really thought they'd hang a number
like 10.5 in the second half after a scoreless first. I was pretty sure that
Miami wasn't going to score a touchdown in the second half barring a hugely
big play, so I wasn't worried about a 7-7 2nd half score turning the Under 14.5
into a loser.

It was a very frustrating game to watch as I had Pittsburgh handicapped to cover
the spread. Had I known the field was going to be that miserable, I surely
would've lowered the point spread along with the total. Still, if you ran this
game again in the same conditions Pittsburgh would have a good chance to cover the
-16, as they were in Miami territory at least 10 times and only got 3 points
for their efforts, as every good drive was stopped short by a penalty or turnover.
Very frustrating as I only had Pittsburgh -3 left to finish off a 13 point
teaser. Oh well, the teaser ended up pushing, and I still made a 1/2 unit on the
game -- but like I said, it should've been more, as the known universe made
good money by hitting the Under and Miami once they saw what the field was like.

1 Unit: Under 43/Winner
1 Unit: Over 38/Loser
1/2 Unit: under 14.5 2nd half/Winner

Week #12 Teasers:
1.5 Units: Jaguars -0.5, Chargers -2.5/Winner
1 Unit: Min.+20, KC+7.5, Dal. -1,Pitts. -3/Push

Week #12: Game Sides: +3.9/Game Totals: -2.2/Teasers: +1.5
Halves: +4.6/Quarters: +0.5/Props n' Parlays: +2.0

Week #12: +10.2 Units

***Year to Date***
Game Sides: +15.9/Game Totals: +4.6/Teasers: +4.1
Halves: +4.4/Quarters: +1.0/Props n' Parlays: +2.8

YTD: +32.7 Units, +10.61% ROI, Average bet size = .77 Units, +42.7 average bets

Week #13 Recommended Plays

I didn't post my recommended plays here last week (and a huge week it was), but I'm going to try and be more diligent about posting them immediately to the blog for interested parties.

Week #13 Recommended Plays:

1 Unit:

Bucs +3.5
Carolina -3
Giants/Bears Under 42.5
Patriots -20
Eagles -3
Redskins -5
Bears +2
Colts/Jaguars Over 44.5
Colts -1/Cowboys -0.5 Teaser
Redskins +7.5/Chargers +8.5/Panthers +10.5/Bucs+16 Teaser
Steelers/Bengals Under 48
Colts -6.5
Falcons +3.5
Falcons/Rams Under 42
Redskins +7.5/Jets +14.5/Bears +14.5/Patriots -7 Teaser

3/4th Unit:

Raiders/Broncos Over 41.5
Vikings -3 (-125)
Broncos -3.5
Redskins/Bills Under 37.5

1/2 Unit:
Bengals +7.5
Saints/Bucs Over 21 1st half
Cards/Browns Over 51
Chargers -5.5
Patriots/Ravens Under 50.5


1/3 Unit: Falcons ML +165

Props -- 1/2 Unit each:

Team will score first: Redskins/Eagles/Panthers
1st score in game will be a TD: Bears/Chiefs (high winds bad for kickin')
No score 1st 7:30 of game: Redskins/Panthers/Bears/Chiefs

***Sunday Morning Plays***

3/4th Unit:

Chiefs/Chargers Under 17.5 1st half (windy, cold)
Eagles/Seahawks Over 19.5 1st half (light rain, not windy)
Eagles/Seahawks Over 39

1/2 Unit:

Redskins/Bills Under 17.5 1st half
Bears/Giants Over 39 (wind 10 mph or less now - 1/2 middle try)
Bengals/Steelers Over 19.5 1st half (field will be at its' best in 1st half,
Bengals will want to score their points then - partial middle try)
Colts' Team Total Over 13.5 1st half
Colts' Team Total Over 26
49ers' Team Total Under 16
Broncos' Team Total Over 22.5
Titans -3.5 (windy and wet may limit Texan's pass attack, their run game is awful.)

My Final Lines for Week #12

Legend
Visiting Team Pointspread
Home Team Total

GreenBay -1
Detroit 48

NYJets +22
Dallas 46.5

Indianapolis -10
Atlanta 41

Denver +0.5
Chicago 41.5

Tennessee +5.5
Cincinatti 44.5

Buffalo +9.5
Jacksonville 38.5

Oakland +10.5
KansasCity 33

Houston +0
Cleveland 51.5

Seattle -5.5
SaintLouis 44.5

Minnesota -1.5
NYGiants 39.5

NewOrleans +0.5
Carolina 41.5

Washington +9.5
TampaBay 39.5

SanFrancisco +8.5
Arizona 37

Baltimore +13.5
SanDiego 38.5

Philadelphia +15
NewEngland 50

Miami +16.5
Pittsburgh 39.5

Week #12 Write-Ups, Lines and Values

Week #12 Write-Ups, Lines and Values

Lots of family time this holiday weekend = less time for write-ups, but we’re having fun so the tradeoff is worth it for the writer, lol. Off to a great start with the Turkey day plays as every 2^nd half play recommended by my line generator turned out to be a winner (the Under 21 Colts/Falcons 2^nd half was recommended, the Falcons +7 was not, and was what shot down the tiny “for fun” parlay in that game.).

Legend

Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value

Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

Denver/+1.5/0/Denver 3.9% value

Chicago/41/42/Over 2.0% value

The Bears’ backsliding continued last week and now face a revitalized Bronco team hungry for wins to keep them in the playoff hunt. The anemic Bears’ run game will have a hard time challenging Denvers’ “poor but improving” run defense, and Grossman is likely to throw two or three picks in the Windy City versus a still decent Denver secondary. Jay Cutler showed on national tv last week that he has the game to pick up big yards versus good pass defenses, and this week gets Javon Walker back at WR. The Bears will need to get good pressure on Cutler or the Broncos may cruise to another 14 point victory like they did versus the Titans last week. Travis Henry has just been downgraded to doubtful, and the line is rebounding from +1.5 to +2, but I hardly think it will matter as long as Selvin Young is healthy enough to at least split carries with Hall.

Final Score Prediction: Denver 21 – Chicago 20

Tennessee/-1.5/+4.5/Cincinatti 13.0% value

Cincinatti/46.5/44/Under 5.3% value

The Titans are on the road for the second straight week, and I see little reason why Carson Palmer and Co. can’t carve up the Titan defense like the Broncos did last week – Palmer and Cutler have near identical QB ratings. The Bengal offensive line is probably weaker than Denvers’, as is their running game, but they’ll still get the home victory coming into this one as an underdog. The line opened as a pick, and once again the early money came in on the Titans. I’m not sure why everyone is so enamored with a team that starts a QB with a 64.3 rating. On ESPN you always hear how the Titans have the 4^th best running game in the league. You know what? That’s total crap. Just because they have the 4^th highest average of rushing yards per game does not make them the team with the 4^th best running game. That the biggest sports network in the world still relies on using the totally misleading category of total yards for its’ statistics is beyond ridiculous. The Titans’ average exactly 4 yards per carry, which is right on the league average, and the only reason they’re even “average” is because of Vince Young’s scrambles. Vince has averaged 4.4 yards per “run.” Their top back, LenDale White, averages 3.5 yards per run. Chris Brown does have a 5.2 ypc average, but he’s missed nearly half the season with injury and only has 20 more rushing yards than VY. Chris Henry, the rookie RB, looks to be suspended again.

This week the Titans’ will be without Benji Olson, RG, again, so that’s a blow to their offensive line. Nick Harper, CB, has returned to practice, though still “?”. Albert Haynesworth, DT, is still “?” after missing a second week, and this team doesn’t look capable of winning games on the road without him right now. The good news for the Titans is that they’ll be up against a soft Bengal defense, but the Bengals will surely put more men in the box and force VY to beat them through the air like Denver did last week. VY made a lot of good throws, but when the 4^th quarter came calling and the Titans needed to make up a deficit, he had some lousy throws that resulted in interceptions that ended the game for them. I see the same thing happening to them again this week.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 24 – Titans 20

Buffalo/-8/-10.5/Jacksonville 6.4% value

Jacksonville/36.5/38.5/Over 5.3% value

Jacksonville has been known to thoroughly wax inferior opponents from time to time at home, and all the signs for this game point to blow out potential. The Bills will once again be without Marshawn Lynch at RB. The Bills only opportunity to win this game will be with JP Losman and the air attack. The Jaguars have been susceptible to teams that throw the ball well, and have some fresh injuries that will help out the Bills. Mike Peterson, the Jags’ stud middle linebacker, broke his hand last week and is out indefinitely. Rashean Mathis, a starting CB, strained his groin last week and is “?”, leaning toward doubtful right now. Reggie Nelson, starting safety, was “?” on the injury reports earlier in the week but is not showing up now, so I assume he’s been upgraded to probable. If the Buffalo defense ends up spending a lot of time on the field like they did last week, they’re bound to be completely blown off the line again late in the game by the Jacksonville running game. Jacksonville typically has a running game that gets stronger the more they wear the opponent down, so there’s nothing to indicate that the Bills will be able to slow the Jags down at any point of this game really, as David Garrard has been outstanding this year as the Jags’ QB with a 104.6 QB rating and no interceptions thrown in 2007. The Jaguars should cruise to an easy victory like they did versus the Chargers last week, and the potential for a 20 point victory is certainly present.

Final Score Prediction: Buffalo 14 – Jacksonville 24

Oakland/+5.5/+9/Kansas City 10.6% value

Kansas City/34.5/32/Under 6.8% value

The Raiders’ best chance to hang around in this game will be with the running game, but it’ll be no easy task versus a better than average Chiefs’ run defense. One third downs or whenever the Raiders take to the air, it’ll be even tougher going as they have one of the worst pass games in the league and face a better than average pass defense that pressures the opposing QB well. The Chiefs’ offensive line has been pretty lousy as well, which is why they’ve had an ineffective run game and given up sacks all year. At least in their favor is the fact that the Raiders don’t get consistent pressure on opposing QBs and don’t defend the run very well either. The Chiefs are down to starting a rookie RB and their rookie QB Croyle in this game, but the biggest edge in this game goes to the Chiefs’ defense versus the Raider offense, and my spreadsheet predicts a comfortable victory for the home team. Four Janikowski field goals will not be enough for the Raiders.

Final Score Prediction: Raiders 12 – Chiefs 21

Houston/+3/+1/Houston 4.0% value

Cleveland/51/51/No value

Both teams feature potent passing attacks with a big running back to pick up the short yardage when necessary. Ahman Green will be out at RB for the Texans again, but his absence won’t hurt them much as this will be a pass-dominated game. The Texans have an even shot at winning this road game as they bring a superior pass offense and total defense to Cleveland. The only area in this game in which the Browns are superior is with the run offense, but it’s not nearly enough of an edge to ride to victory, as the run games will sit in the sidecar as this game zips down the road.

Final Score Prediction: Houston 27 – Cleveland 28

Seattle/-3/-4.5/Seattle 3.4% value

Saint Louis/44.5/43.5/Under 2.2% value

The Rams will be back in their element this week, but will it be enough to be at home? The Seahawks have had the far more consistent passing game this year, though their QB comes into this game having missed practice time an injury, though it looks as if he’ll be largely unaffected and is definitely going to start. With Stephen Jackson back in the lineup the Rams aren’t the sitting ducks they used to be. The Rams’ offensive line always seems to get a new guy injured just when somebody is coming back, and this week is no different. Their poor offensive line play could once again lead to Seattle getting tremendous pressure on Bulger like they did in the game they played earlier this year. Ultimately, I think that will be the difference maker. Hasselbeck has had good protection in the pocket this year and consistently finds the open receiver, while Bulger has been constantly harried and will probably will be again this Sunday.

Final Score Prediction: Seattle 24 – Saint Louis 20

Minnesota/+7/-1/Minnesota 20.5% value

NY Giants/40/39.5/Under 1.7% value

This game features, by far, the biggest mismatch in the running game on the entire card this week. Brandon Jacobs will be out for the game, so the Giants will have to rely on the “just returning from injury” Derrick Ward and Reuben Droughns to get yards versus the number one rush defense in the league. The Giants will be without one of their top linebackers for the rest of the season, Mathias Kiwanuka. Adrian Peterson has actually been upgraded to “?”, but I’m going to list him as doubtful anyway, because I have enough line value on the Vikings as it is. T. Jackson had one of his best games at QB in his young career last week, and will only need an average game to help his team to a close road victory. The Giants continue to be one of the most overrated teams in the league, as they’re just average defensively and have a sub-par NFL quarterback with Eli Manning. As it’ll be tough going running the ball for them this week, Eli may not be able to pass the team to victory – so yeah, don’t be surprised if the Giants go down as a 7 point home favorite this week.

Final Score Prediction: Minnesota 21 – NY Giants 20

New Orleans/-2.5/+1.5/Carolina 9.6% value

Carolina/41.5/41.5/No value

Reggie Bush is listed as “?” after missing practice time this week, but he’ll probably end up playing anyway as usual. The complete lack of offensive balance will hurt the Saints again this week versus a decent Panther defense. The Panthers will be without Chris Gamble, CB, which will hurt. On the plus side they’ll get Steve Smith back at WR. By my calculations, the Panthers will be able to average almost as many yards per pass attempt as the Saints this week because of the Saints’ poor pass defense. The Panthers have a big advantage in the running game, and will be able to run it right up the gut versus a Saints’ run defense that was pretty solid until they suffered injuries on their defensive line. The Saints will be without two of their four defensive tackles. The strong run-first option the Panthers possess in this game will give Testaverde the luxury of finding open receivers when he utilizes the play-action fake. With shorter down and distance yardages, the Panthers should be able to grind out a fair number of scoring drives, while the Saints will have many failed drives because of the boom or bust offense they’re forced to use without a good running game.

Final Score Prediction: New Orleans 20 – Carolina 23

Washington/+3.5/+7.5/Tampa Bay 10.7% value

Tampa Bay/38/40.5/Over 6.7% value

Jason Campbell looked impressive with many good completions versus the Dallas defense last week. The Bucs actually have a better pass defense than the Cowboys, so it may be tough to have a repeat performance for a second straight road game. The Bucs also have a good run defense and should be up to the task of keeping the Redskins’ run game from breaking out this game.

Jeff Garcia just had to manage the game versus the Falcons after the game after the Bucs got out to the big early lead. He only completed 11 of 21 passes, but with the big td strike to Galloway he averaged a healthy 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The Bucs will probably have to rely more on his passing this week, as Michael Pittman is down again with an injury after only making his return last week. Ernest Graham, the RB who has filled in nicely at RB since coming over to the Bucs will have to handle the bulk of the carries though he’s been a bit dinged up for the past week or two. The Redskins have a pretty good run defense, so the Bucs, with only one good back available, may look to attack the Redskins’ secondary that has suffered numerous injuries in the past few weeks. The Redskins’ secondary had been a pretty solid unit, but have now given up an average of 7.18 yards per pass attempt in their last 5 games when the aforementioned injuries started to accrue. This leads to the biggest mismatch in the game and a home victory for the Bucs.

Final Score Prediction: Washington 17 – Tampa Bay 24

San Francisco/+10.5/+9/San Francisco 4.6% value

Arizona/38/37/Under 2.0% value

The Cardinals come into this game after a big road win versus the Bengals in which they won courtesy of 4 interceptions after being outgained by almost a full yard per offensive play for the course of the game. The 49ers with Dilfer at QB showed a little bit of a spark last week, but couldn’t turn any of those sparks into a touchdown flame and suffered another defeat as a result. The Cardinals will be without Pro Bowl safety Adrian Wilson again, and have a few other injuries to their defense as well. The 49ers’ defense continues to play pretty well in losing efforts, and actually have a pretty good match up this week with their secondary versus the Cardinal pass attack. If the 49er offense can get anything going in this game there’s a chance they can hang with the Cardinals, but that’s still a pretty order as the Cardinals have been pretty tough at home this year.

Final Score Prediction: San Francisco 14 – Arizona 23

Baltimore/+9/+13.5/San Diego 11.7% value

San Diego/38.5/38/Under 1.2% value

I just saw Ray Lewis on tv sporting a hoodie with some kind of teamwork inspirational slogan on it, but this team has to be feeling deflated after the heartbreaking loss to Cleveland last week. Now they travel from coast to coast and face a San Diego team that has played pretty well at home. The last time Baltimore’s sputtering offense visited the west coast they scored nine points versus the 49ers. Nine points won’t get it done in this game. Boller can stretch the field more than McNair, and did make some big plays in the second half versus the Browns last week – but was the Browns, and they have one of the worst secondaries in the league. One half of offensive production will also not get it done versus the Chargers. I’d put the Chargers down for a couple of picks in this game versus a Ravens team that will probably be playing from behind in the second half.

All eyes are on Phillip Rivers as he’s just not playing up to expectations this year. He doesn’t seem to be handling the blitz well this year and has had poor field vision. This could be a problem versus a Baltimore defense that likes to bring the heat. One would hope that even a coach as mediocre as Norv Turner will have a good game plan in place to counter the Ravens’ aggressiveness. The Chargers will really need to get LT going in this game to take Rivers out of obvious passing downs. It won’t be easy, but all in all the Chargers should find enough offensive success to beat a Ravens team that will struggle for any offensive points in this game. One key turnover by the Ravens may lead to an easy Charger score and give them the comfortable two touchdown win.

Projected Final Score: Baltimore 12 – San Diego 26

Philadelphia/+24/+13.5/Philadelphia 21.0% value

New England/50.5/50/Under 0.9% value

McNabb will sit this one out, but I say good riddance. Feeley has had a better QB rating in the limited game time he’s seen over the last two years. The extra mobility will come in handy versus a Patriots’ defense that brings blitzes from all angles. I guess it’s pointless to point out why I think the Eagles will cover this game, as no one seems to believe that will happen, lol. But here’s one completely stupid reason. The Patriots have only beaten half of their opponents by more than 21 points, so don’t the Eagles at least have a 50/50 chance of covering this number?

Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia 17 – New England 34

Miami/+16/+15.5/Miami 1.1% value

Pittsburgh/40.5/38.5/Under 5.4% value

Miami will have a hard time cracking ten points this game, but may cover anyway, as I’m becoming increasingly less impressed with the Steelers’ offensive play calling. The Dolphins, already without Ronnie Brown at RB, may also be without his back up, Chatman, this week. He’s listed as “?” but will probably play if it’s a borderline situation because they’ll need something out of the backfield to take the pressure off of man-rookie QB John Beck who’ll be making his second career start on the road. In his first game last week wasn’t very impressive versus an average Eagles’ secondary. This week he faces the number one pass defense in the league, so good luck, John. Even without Polamalu in at safety, the Steelers have the ability to shut out the Dolphins in this game if they don’t give up any short fields. I’ll be very surprise if the Steelers don’t hold up their end of the teaser bargain at -3 for a second week in a row. This game has “Crush and Cruise” written all over it. The Steelers will acquire points through the first half and part way into the third, then go into clock-killing mode for the remainder of the game.

Final Score Prediction: 27 – Dolphins 10

Turkey Day Write-Ups and Lines

Week #12 Lines, Write-Ups and Final Score Predictions (Thursday games only for now)

Legend

Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value

Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

Green Bay/-3.5/-0.5/Detroit 6.2% value

Detroit/46.5/47/Over 1.3% value

Green Bay comes into this game red hot, while the Lions have struggled and lost in their last two. When you balance the season statistics, Green Bay has a small advantage which is negated by the game being in Detroit. So the question is, what is momentum worth in this game? Clearly the line and betting action is shaded toward Green Bay because they’re the ones with the positive momentum right now. I rarely adjust my lines to reflect momentum, unless a particular major statistical category has showed real improvement for 4 games. I’ve adjusted my line 1.5 points in favor of Green Bay because with all of their receivers now healthy I feel that the normal injury bonuses they are receiving do not suffice. Momentum may count for less, though, as both teams will have hardly had any time to think from the end of the last game until the start of this one on Thursday. If any team is due for a letdown, it’s the Packers, who’ve been winning handily and have to travel to Detroit for Thanksgiving. Happy Turkey Day, don’t get shot. The Lions are surely pissed after last week’s home loss to the Giants – a game that the Giants didn’t win by dint of a great performance, they were just fortunate that the Lions couldn’t do jack-crap the deeper they got into Giants’ territory.

Even though the numbers show value on the Lions, I won’t bet them, lol. I’m not gonna’ put my $$$ against a sizzling pass attack that is facing an average pass defense (unless it’s the Eagles getting +22) on a small 3.5 point spread.

While my O/U line is very close to the actual number, I’d lean on the Over as this will be a pass-dominated game. Both teams have had health issues at RB and have not been able to get their ground games going with any consistency this year. The Lions’ offensive line has had major problems just keeping defenders off of Kitna’s back every play, let alone protecting a running back who is actually heading toward said defenders. In games where both teams will clearly have more success passing the ball than running I think a sense of panic can creep into whichever team happens to be losing at the time, and they’re quicker to abandon the run in an effort to keep up. The winning team, still enjoying the superior match-up they have in the passing game, will often just keep on passing, usually with the benefit of a more effective play-action. The Lions abandon the run the coin flip, usually, while the Packers will only favor it if they have a sizeable late game lead. I’m not sure historically how the O/Us have fared on Thanksgiving, but you’d think that the lineman on both sides of the ball will tire a little more easily and just kind of sit there tangled up on the pass rush, giving the QB more time to find a receiver. It’s a theory, but AIverson needs to look up the numbers on it, lol.

Key Injuries: Green Bay – Johnny Jolly, DT out/Ryan Grant, RB “?”/Nick Collins, Sa, out. Detroit – Idrees Bashir, Sa, IR/Travis Fisher, CB, “?”

Final Score Prediction: Green Bay 27 – Detroit 24 (Crosby kicks the FG in OT. It’s okay, the Detroit fans are used to being disappointed while stuffing themselves with stuffing.)

New York Jets/+14/+22/Cowboys 16.7% value

Dallas/47.5/46.5/Under 1.6% value

The Jets outcoached and outplayed the Steelers last week to score the upset at home. The party was short-lived as they have to travel to Dallas for a Thursday game. The Dallas pass defense was pretty awful versus a Redskins team that had several injuries at the WR position. Santana Moss, who I thought would be gimpy in that game, ended up looking pretty unaffected and a really good game, helping the Redskins cover the spread.

The Jets’ defense might as well blitz away in this game as well, because they’re at a huge disadvantage in defending both the pass and run versus the Cowboys. They’ll want to take chances like they did versus the Steelers in an attempt to get the big drive-ending play. Bad defenses should gamble with aggression when they’re clearly outmatched, it just makes sense. Tony Romo is a lot better at avoiding the sack then Big Ben, though, and even more capable of making the Jets pay with a big play, so it should be an exciting game when the Cowboys have the ball. The Cowboys may choose to pound Barber and Jones at the soft Jets’ defensive line more than they normally would, particularly if Patrick Crayton, WR, ends up missing the game (good chance he will miss). The Cowboys are not deep at receiver. After Owens and Crayton there is Sam Hurd with 10 catches, and that’s about it. Isaiah Stanback, rookie, should be back from an injury, but he’s been out all year, as has Terry Glenn. Other than that there’s second year man Miles Austin with zero receptions. But anyway you look at it, the Cowboys should be able to exploit anything the Jets’ defense throws at them. I expect the Cowboys to run first, then burn them with the big YAC when they find single coverage.

As the Jets will be playing from behind all game, it’ll fall on the shoulders of Kellen Clemens to make enough plays to generate scoring drives. The Cowboys, in spite of looking pretty poor at pass defense last week, give up an average of 5.6 yards per pass attempt, which is pretty good; a half yard better than league average. So Clemens will be putting his 59.2 QB rating up on the visitors’ Thanksgiving table for the Cowboys to devour. After last week, I think the Cowboys will be pretty hungry to eat this kid up. If the Cowboys don’t wait until the end of the first half to score their first points this week, this game will back-door proofed by the time the final 6 minutes are played.

Key Injuries: Jets – Dewayne Robertson, DT, “?”/Eric Smith, Sa, “?”/L. Coles, WR, doubtful – Cowboys – Patrick Crayton, “?”

Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 35 – Jets 13

Indianapolis/-11.5/-10/Atlanta 3.4% value

Atlanta/41/41/No value

The Colts’ lack of depth at wide receiver nearly cost them for a third straight week, but they eked out a 3 point home victory versus the offensively challenged Chiefs. The situation doesn’t look a whole lot better this week. They’ll have Dallas Clark back again, though he had the same amount of catches as Utecht last week (3), while Utecht had almost twice as many yards. The Colts were pretty deep at TE with Clark, Utecht and Fletcher to begin with, but with Fletcher missing last game and being questionable for this one, Clark will have to carry his usual load in the passing game. Aaron Morehead just got IR’d, but Anthony Gonzalez will see playing time while recovering from his broken hand. How recovered is the hand? I don’t know, but it could affect his ability to catch the ball. That leaves Reggie Wayne as the only good, healthy receiver for the Colts. The Colts may very well under perform on offense again this week, even against the Falcons. They’re a dome team playing in a dome tomorrow, but the crowd noise will be up when he’s on offense (as long as the game stays semi-close), so who knows, maybe they’ll be some miscommunication with all of the audibles to some of the less experienced guys. Have you seen the latest commercial at “Joe’s Café” about Peyton Manning and his audibles? Freakin’ hilarious, I love that commercial.

Bobby Petrino, in a rare moment of lucidity, reinstated Joey Harrington as the starting QB this week. I have the Colts’ pass defense rated second best, so the Falcons will probably favor the run game with Dunn and Norwood for as long as they can. Those two backs may wish it was Colonel Sanders playing safety for the Colts instead of Bob after he gets to them a few times. They’ll be like, “Damn, we’re already eating turkey today, we don’t need no chicken too,” lol. Apologies for the random humor.

As the softer part of the Falcons’ defense is stopping the run, I expect the Colts to run ball with Addai and Keith a lot this game. The Falcons will be hard pressed to slow down the Colts’ offense enough to have a shot at winning this game, as their defense is average to poor across the board. As the Colts will have more success in both the running and passing games (the kicking may be a wash as Morten “The Mummy” Anderson is probably as good as Adam “Ghost of Vanderjagt” Vinatieri right now), they should cruise to a ten point victory on the road.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 26 – Falcons 16

Week #11 Recap

Week #11 Recap

“Teaser Megabucks”

I went a little nuts on the teasers this past week, sinking units into a myriad of plays in an attempt to hit the high reward of a high risk/reward megabucks machine. After plunking in my units and pulling the handle, I watched the reels spin, and spin, and spin (hey, 10 hours of spinning is a lot), until finally registering a cherry on the first reel (5 of the 7 plays still alive, the losers coming via the low point production in the Houston/NO (2 points short) and Philly/Miami (4 points short) games). One of the losers was the only less than 1 Unit play, so the potential for a good profit was still there. The closest scare in the morning games for the teasers? The Colts. Vinatieri misses 2 field goals and the Colts squeak by with a 3 point home victory, just covering the -2 13 point tease. Okay, so it was kind of grayed-out cherry, not an actual guarantee of some money back, as none of the teasers were complete yet, but a strong promise with a 2 and 3 team teaser needing only the Steelers versus the hapless Jets. Reel #2 comes along and it’s a total blank. I mean, it was like all the reel had to do was correctly line itself up with any random plum or 7 and I’m guaranteed a profit – but no, it gets stuck in between any actual symbol as the Jets pull off the improbable upset after trailing by 3 points with less than 3 minutes to play and the Steelers having the ball near mid-field. So, the cherry is mostly grayed-out still as one teaser is a winner, but 4 are now losers. Looking at what remains for the 2 still-working teasers brightens the cherry considerably, as they only need the Pats -1.5 and Pats -2. So the final reel comes to a rest and shows the “10x, jackpot – if you had the first two reels lined up you would now receive a monster payoff” kind of symbol. Nope, the second reel was a bust so I end up 3-4 on the teasers down 1.5 Units after the stiff juice incurred on all plays. So close to the big payday, but it’s the nature of big teasers to stiff you with one upset, so c’est la vie.

Overtime = Sudden Death (to any plays working in the game)

By the time the Browns/Ravens game sloppily scored its’ way into Overtime, the only bets I had working were a small Ravens ML play and a Browns +0.5 2^nd half bet that only wins if the Browns score a touchdown in OT, lol. Let’s not even mention the Phil Dawson pinball shot that got it to OT after the Browns got the ball back on their 42 with 19 seconds left…ridiculous. That Ravens’ victory was just not meant to be, lol. So yeah, the Browns of course get the FG in OT for a win that makes me a loser on every bet for the game (barring the un-posted 1^st half Under play that won as my only un-posted play of the week, lol). The other OT game was the Jets/Steelers fiasco. The Steelers actually had a shot after holding the Jets to a punt after the Jets had the first possession, but promptly went 3 and out, gave up a huge punt return to Leon Washington, and a field goal for the loss not long after. A 4.5 unit swing if the Steelers can just manage the 3 point victory. Ouch. Well, I guess that OT loss wasn’t the death of every play, as I was still able to cash a 13 point teaser that Pittsburgh +4.5 on it. I’m surprised Leon Washington didn’t return the punt for a touchdown to kill that play as well, lol.

The Grand Salami

I made a really simple mistake that cost me 3/4ths of a Unit with the Grand Salami bet – I failed to consider that the Patriots, as a road team, were capable of killing the Home Teams -28 bet singlehandedly, which they did. The home teams were actually outscored by 4 points this past week, but if you take away the Patriots game the home teams outscore the away teams by 38, which covers the -28, lol. The Grand Salami bets will keep an eye on where the Patriots are playing from now on, lol.

Final Score Prediction:__San Diego 20 – Jacksonville 23

Actual Final Score:_____San Diego 17 – Jacksonville 24

This one was actually never in doubt as the Jaguars had a nice lead most of the way and the Chargers only had one chance to tie the game after getting the ball back with 1:34 left and the whole field to go. I predicted the Chargers wouldn’t be able to win with smoke and mirrors versus the Jaguars, and that proved to be true as Garrard continued his perfect record of no interceptions and the Chargers were unable to get any touchdown returns.

3/4^th Unit: Jaguars -3/Winner

3/4^th Unit: Over 40/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Kansas City 14 – Indianapolis 28

Actual Final Score:_____Kansas City 10 – Indianapolis 13

The usually sure-footed Adam Vinatieri seems to be suffering from the Vanderjagt-Colt curse as of late. If he doesn’t get his head on straight soon he’ll be released at the end of the year, but not picked up by the Cowboys as they seem to have a decent kicker now, lol. If you can’t consistently make field goals, you sure as hell better to able to put the ball into the endzone on kickoffs…

The Chiefs’ defense did their job and put the team into position to win the game, but the Chiefs’ offense were in a tough spot starting Brodie Croyle for the first time versus one of the best defenses in the league on the road and ultimately couldn’t get the points necessary.

½ Unit: Under 44/Winner

½ Unit: Over 42/Loser

½ Unit: 1^st half Under 21.5/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Oakland 14 – Minnesota 24

Actual Final Score:_____Oakland 22 – Minnesota 29

My “Surprise Over of the Week” was cashed by halftime, but I gave it back with the 2^nd half Over that came up 7 points short, lol. Still a good game as the Vikings’ ground game rolled big time as predicted. 4 1^st half turnovers killed the Vikings -3 1^st half play, but set me up to double down with another 1 Unit on the Vikings -3 2^nd half, so it worked out alright in the end. T. Jackson had his first decent game as QB for the Vikings, completing 17 of 22 for 171 yards, no TDs, 1 INT. If he can continue to improve, the Vikings will have a good shot of making the playoffs next year. I figured Culpepper would have to throw it a lot to try and keep up in this game (while attacking the weaker part of the Vikings’ defense), and did he ever, as Oakland attempted 39 passes versus 24 runs, while racking up 344 passing yards.

1 Unit: Vikings -5.5/Winner

3/4^th Unit: Over 35.5/Winner

½ Unit: Vikings -3 1^st half/Loser

1 Unit: Vikings -3 2^nd half/Winner

3/4^th Unit: Over 20 2^nd half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:__Cleveland 23 – Baltimore 21

Actual Final Score:_____Cleveland 33 – Baltimore 30 (OT)

The Ravens certainly didn’t deserve to win this game after putting up only 7 points in the first half courtesy of a Ray Lewis pick 6, but there they were with a 3 point lead kicking off with 26 seconds or so left in the game. Wisely, they kicked it to Joshua Cribbs because, hey, he’s never done squat on kickoff returns, has he? The Ravens escorted him downfield while letting the clock run, before finally deciding to stop him with 19 seconds left. The Browns complete a nice pass, and instead of trying to keep the man in bounds while not tackling him so the clock runs out, they go right ahead and tackle him, god forbid they’d actually do something intelligent even once in this game. Phil Dawson’s “Stuffed by the Stanchion” kick is finally ruled good after a 5 minute tea break, and the Browns carry the momentum into the OT and get the win.

To win ½ Unit: Ravens ML/Loser

½ Unit: Browns +0.5 2^nd half/Loser

½ Unit: Under 21 2^nd half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:__Pittsburgh 27 – NY Jets 14

Actual Final Score:_____Pittsburgh 16 – NY Jets 19

I guess the Steelers do suck on the road after all, but c’mon – the Jets only had 7 sacks for the entire season coming into this game. They doubled their season production by sacking Big Ben 7 times. I give credit to the Jets’ coaches for this victory. They had an aggressive defensive game plan, realizing they’d need to take chances and not allow the Steelers to wear them down with numerous lengthy drives. Mission accomplished.

1 Unit: Steelers -9/Loser

½ Unit: Over 20 1^st half/Push

¼ Unit Pitts and Over 1^st half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:___Tampa Bay 21 – Atlanta 16

Actual Final Score:______Tampa Bay 31 – Atlanta 7

The Bucs covered as expected, but I didn’t expect this kind of a shellacking. Leftwich has been horrible in the pocket when he’s played this year. His big arm hasn’t been strong enough to hold onto the ball when defenders get to him, and has been prone to misfires when he actually gets rid of the ball in the way he intended. The Bucs’ defense is generally opportunistic, opportunity knocked, the Falcons got rocked. It was mighty kind of the Falcons to at least chip in with 7 points at the end of the game (thanks to Joey Harrington) as the Bucs were still 5 points shy of covering the Over by themselves.

1 Unit: Bucs -3/Winner

½ Unit: Over 35.5/Winner

Final Score Prediction:___Arizona 24 – Cincinatti 27

Actual Final Score:______Arizona 35 – Cincinatti 27

The Bengals’ outgained the Cardinals 5.42 ypp to 4.49. That’s almost a full yard better on every single play. Unfortunately for Carson Palmer, he was throwing very catchable balls, 3 of which went to Antrel Rolle of the Cardinals, who returned all 3 of them for touchdowns, though the last one was called back due to a dubious call on one of his teammates for blocking Mr. Palmer after the ball was picked. This was a game Cincinnati should have won, but it’s starting to become old hat for them to lose such games.

½ Unit: Cards/Bengals Under 24.5 1^st half/Loser

½ Unit: Cards/Bengals Over 48.5/Winner

Final Score Prediction:___Miami 13 – Philadelphia 29

Actual Final Score:______Miami 7 -- Philadelphia 17

Donovan McNabb got off to a slow start in this game, with 3 completions and 2 interceptions in 9 throws. It was probably fortunate for the Eagles that he left with an injury, as Jay Feeley in relief gave them a spark with some good QBing and led them to a 17-7 victory after being down 0-7. John “He gives us the best chance of winning right now…snicker” Beck was predictably poor overall in his rookie debut, but the Eagles could only manage to push the spread after such a slow start. When there were 9.5 and 10’s available on the board, I debated whether to pay juice for the 9.5, or get juice on the 10. In the end I went with the +juice, so of course the game landed right on the 10, lol.

1 Unit: Eagles -10/Push’

½ Unit: Over 40/Loser

1 Unit: Eagles -6.5 2^nd half/Winner

¼ Unit: Eagles & Over 1^st half parlay

Final Score Prediction:___New England 28 – Bills 14

Actual Final Score:______New England 52 – Bills 10

Odds are you going to win and cover the spread when you score a touchdown on every possession, including one on defense, until sometime during the 4^th quarter. I thought the cold would help the Under a little bit, and it did seem to cause a couple of easy drops by the Patriots early in the game, but the hope quickly evaporated as the Patriots converted on every third and fourth down they attempted. The Patriots gamely tried to help my 2^nd half Under and Bills’ bets by going for it on 4^th down, but the Bills didn’t want to see a good defensive streak of futility end, so they let them score. Another Sunday night suckfest.

1 Unit: Under 47/Loser

½ Unit: Bills +7.5 2^nd half/Loser

1 Unit: Under 23 2^nd half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:___Washington 16 – Dallas 31

Actual Final Score:______Washington 23 – Dallas 28

The Cowboys really only played the second half, and in spite of that were still covering with 5 minutes left to play. Jason Campbell had a really good game in spite of being short-handed of receivers, and converted a 4^th and 4 that led to the touchdown that stole away the Cowboy cover. The Cowboys didn’t get good pressure on Campbell, and their coverage was pretty soft downfield; a bad recipe for defending the pass. Maybe Andre Gurode will take a few extra practice shotgun snaps this week, as he seemed to be under the impression that if he hiked it back over the opponent’s crossbars he’d be awarded 3 points for a field goal. But yeah, back to Campbell – it was really a breakout game for him and a sign of probable good things to come for the Redskins’ offense.

1 Unit: Cowboys -10.5/Loser

½ Unit: Over 23.5 1^st half/Loser (wrong half bet, lol)

¼ Unit: Cowboys & Over 1^st half parlay/Loser

Final Score Prediction:___New Orleans 23 – Houston 27

Actual Final Score:______New Orleans 10 – Houston 23

Turnovers and failed 4^th down attempts didn’t help the Saints convert yards into points, so they ended up with a meager 10 in a game where both teams seemed guaranteed to make it into the 20s. Such a pitiful performance in point scoring caused me to lose a 4 team teaser by 2 points. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson’s return the lineup paid quick dividends in the form of a long touchdown strike in the first quarter. Reggie Bush continues to not impress, and made his second goal line fumble that I can think of this season.

1 Unit: Texans +2.5/Winner

1 Unit: Over 47/Loser

1 Unit: Under 50.5/Winner

½ Unit: Over 23.5 1^st half/Winner

¼ Unit: Texans and Over 1^st half parlay/Winner

1 Unit: Texans +0.5 2^nd half/Winner

Final Score Prediction:___Carolina 14 – Green Bay 27

Actual Final Score:______Carolina 17 – Green Bay 31

Green Bay got on the board first after returning a pooch punt 95 yards for a touchdown. Good thing, as it turns out, or they wouldn’t have covered the spread versus a Carolina team that showed a little bit of offensive moxie with Testaverde leading them to 2 second half touchdowns. It was too little, too late, as Favre and his incredibly deep group of receivers had what turned out to be in insurmountable lead. Ryan Grant, RB for Green Bay, sustained an injury in this game and is “?” versus Detroit on Thanksgiving. He’s been playing pretty well, but the Packers are a completely pass-first team at this point, so his impact is minimal.

1 Unit: Packers -10/Winner

½ Unit: Packers -3 2^nd half/Loser

½ Unit: Under 17.5 2^nd half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:___NYGiants 21 – Detroit 24

Actual Final Score:______NYGiants 16 – Detroit 10

The Lions had plenty of chances to win this game, but the sacks, dropped balls and turnovers all combined to take the roar out of their game. Kitna’s frustration is understandable, and I agree; it wasn’t so much that the Giants won the game, but that the Lions lost the game. The Lions outgained the Giants 376 to 341 yards, and killed them in average gain per play, 6.6 to 5.0. That’s a pretty large differential and you won’t often see a team losing with those numbers. It would’ve been a nice victory for my record and would’ve put me right near the top for the second week in a row at The Prediction Tracker . com, though I’m still top ten across all categories, more or less.

½ Unit: Under 50.5/Winner

½ Unit: 1^st half Under 24.5/Winner

¼ Unit: 1^st half Lions and Under parlay/Loser

½ Unit: Lions +2 1^st half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:___Saint Louis 17 – San Francisco 17

Actual Final Score:______Saint Louis 13 – San Francisco 9

This game came down to a couple of dropped balls as the 49ers found a way to keep their losing streak alive. The opening O/U of 41 was an early Christmas present from the books, and even though the Rams had scored a TD less than 5 minutes into the game, the rest of the game produced a whopping 15 more points. I should’ve bet the second half Under as well, but didn’t pull the trigger before the 3^rd quarter kicked off. Nolan was feeling generous toward my 49ers 2^nd half Pick bet when he decided to kick the field goal down 7 with less than 2 minutes to play, lol, turning what was a probably push into a winner. Even though I had the 49ers in a small ML play, I was actually rooting for them not to score at the very end of the game as I make more money with the “3 unanswered scores – No” bet which would’ve lost if the they get the end of the game winning touchdown. Once again targeting a 49ers game with some specific props paid dividends.

1 Unit: Under 41/Winner

1/3 Unit: 49ers ML/Loser

½ Unit: 3 Unanswered Scores – “No” +145/Winner

To win ½ Unit: No Score Last 2 Minutes of 1^st half +160/Winner

½ Unit: 49ers Pick 2^nd half/Winner

Final Score Prediction:___Chicago 17 – Seattle 21

Actual Final Score:______Chicago 23 – Seattle 30

The Bears lumbered quickly out of the gate in the form of Cedric Benson ripping off a huge touchdown run, the first 1^st quarter the Bears have scored in like, forever. The 10-0 lead didn’t last, and the Bears failed to get the 2^nd half scores necessary to keep up with the flying Seahawks. Grossman had a decent game – perhaps he’ll start the rest of the season now that the Bears have zero chance of making the playoffs. The Seahawks proved themselves to be just fine without Shaun Alexander again. He seems to have the heart of a benchwarmer this year, so you might as well park his butt there.

½ Unit: Over 20.5 2^nd half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:___Tennessee 17 – Denver 21

Actual Final Score:______Tennessee 20 – Denver 34

The game I predicted to be the “forum trap game of the week” proved to be exactly that, as this game was Over before the 1^st quarter had even expired, for all intents and purposes. Cutler completely destroyed the Titans’ defense, and was helped out by a punt return for a TD and a long run for a TD as well. I figured Vince Young (and his sub-par group of receivers) was incapable of leading this team back with the pass if it came down to it, and that’s how it played out. He set a career high for passing yards, but failed when the last 2 drives ended with interceptions. My spreadsheet recommended a full 1 Unit play on Denver +0.5 for the second half (a team’s capability of making up a deficit with the pass is part of the line, so it didn’t look good for Tennessee), but ultimately I was gun shy as I already had the Denver Pick play looking good for the game and didn’t want to risk the profit. Well, that was a mistake I’m kicking myself over, because you can’t be afraid to jump on each and every profitable situation due to other bets you have out. I did make personal bets of Denver +0.5 and the Over 20 for the second half at 1 Unit each, but of course you want those winners to go not just to your bankroll, but to your forum record as well.

3/4^th Unit: Broncos Pick/Winner

½ Unit: 1^st Score will be a FG or Safety +110/Loser

1/3 Unit: Over 3.5 field goals in game +145/Winner

1/3 Unit: 3 Unanswered Scores – “No” +150/Winner

Week #11: Game Sides: +4.8/Game Totals: +2.3/Teasers: -1.4

Halves: -1.4/Quarters: None/Props n’ Parlays +0.7

Week #11: +5.1 Units

***Year to Date***

Game Sides: +12/Game Totals: +6.8/Teasers: +2.6

Halves: -0.2/Quarters: +0.5/Props n’ Parlays: +0.8

YTD: +22.5 Units, +8.24% ROI, Average bet size = .78 Units, +28.9 average bets

Week #11 Write-Ups of Key Match-Ups and Final Score Predictions

Week #11 Key Match-Ups and Final Score Predictions

Legend

Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value

Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

San Diego/+3/+3.5/Jacksonville 1.8% value

Jacksonville/40.5/42.5/Over 5.4% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Jaguars’ run attack versus the Charger defense. The two-headed attack of M. Jones Draw and F. Taylor has produced on a consistent basis this year. They’ve only faced two sub-par run defenses this year; the Broncos’ and the Texans’, so they’re used to a tough time in the trenches, and have still managed to gain better than the league averages. The Chargers’ run defense has started to slip, and has been hit with injuries at one of the defensive end positions’, losing Luis Castillo and having his backup, Jacques Cesaire, listed as “questionable” this week. This is not the bruising run offense you want to face with such a weakness on your defensive line. If the Chargers are unable to force the Jaguars into many obvious passing downs, David Garrard will have a much easier time of it at QB returning from his injury for the first game.

Key Match-Up #2: Phillip Rivers versus the Jaguar pass defense. Teams with good passing games have been able to exploit the Jaguar secondary this year. Heck, even Vince Young was able to complete almost 59% of his passes last week for 230 yards (though only 5.1 yppa) against them. Rivers started off the season pretty well but has been backsliding as of late. He did throw for a really high yppa versus the Texans a few games ago, but that was on only 11 throws. In games where he’s thrown 24 or more passes, his yppa per game average is only 4.97, well below the league average of 6.11. He figures to throw a lot of passes this game not only because it’s the Jaguars’ defensive weakness, but because they’re likely to be playing from behind in this game. If Rivers is unable to have a decent game throwing the ball, it’ll be a long game for the Chargers and they may get blown out. Playing in an early game after traveling from the west coast to the east coast doesn’t do them any favors either.

Final Score Prediction: San Diego 20 -- Jacksonville 23

Kansas City/+14.5/+13.5/Kansas City 3.0% value

Indianapolis/42/43.5/Over 3.8% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Colts’ ground game versus the Chiefs’ defense. The Colts’ offensive line will have all of its’ starters back in place for this tilt. This is a big boost, as they figure to be running the ball A LOT as they should be leading on the scoreboard from start to finish. The Chiefs do have a slightly better than average run defense, so as funny as it sounds, they’ll want to force Peyton Manning into obvious passing downs where they’ll at least have a chance to kill some Colt drives. Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez will be out again, but the Colts will get Dallas Clark back. B. Fletcher will be newly out at TE for the Colts, but they still have Ben Utecht to back up D. Clark and to use in two TE formations.

Key Match-Up #2: Brodie Croyle versus the Colts’ defense and the “So loud it seems piped-in” crowd noise in the RCA dome. The Colts’ crowd noise should be turned up to 11 as they want nothing short of a blow out to get their team back on track after suffering their first losses of the season in back-to-back fashion. That’ll be tough for QB Croyle, making his 1^st start in his 2^nd NFL season. Luckily for him, he won’t have to worry about Dwight Freeney eating his proverbial lunch from the blind side. Still, the Chiefs’ offense has been so anemic this year, the Colts’ defense will be able to show about any look they want in an attempt to confuse Croyle and force him into mistakes. The Colts have been playing really good defense this year, so the Chiefs’ already struggling offense will struggle for every point they put on the scoreboard.

Final Score Prediction: Kansas City 14 -- Indianapolis 28

Oakland/+4.5/+11.5/Minnesota 19.5% value

Minnesota/35.5/38.5/Over 8.8% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Vikings’ offensive line versus the Raiders’ defense. The Raiders are well aware that the Vikings’ game plan doesn’t change much with Adrian Peterson out of the game. They’ll still run Chester Taylor behind their expensive, excellent offensive line and try to bully a Raider offensive line that gives up 4.79 ypc. Clearly the Raiders will put more men in the box and try to force T. Jackson to beat them with his inaccurate arm. If the Vikings are still able to gain 4-5 yards ypc versus a stacked box, the Raiders’ defensive line will be ground to a find black and silver powder by the time the game ends.

Key Match-Up #2: Daunte Culpepper versus the Vikings’ secondary. The Raiders are also aware of the fact that the Vikings’ defensive line will be ready for Vargas and Jordan this week, as the Raiders are normally a run-first offense. I expect the Raiders, who really have nothing to lose at his point of the season, to play-action more than usual and throw the ball on many first and second downs, as it’s probably their only chance to score points and win this football game. And why wouldn’t they try to air it out and pick up some big yards? Imagine the criticism Lane Kiffin and Co. will face if they just pound the ball into the Vikings’ #1 run defense all day and end up slinking away with a loss.

The Vikings, like the Chargers, also have a kick-off time equal to 10 AM hometown time.

Final Score Prediction: Oakland 14 – Minnesota 24

Cleveland/-2.5/-1.5/Baltimore 2.3% value

Baltimore/43.5/44/Over 1.5% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Baltimore offense versus any 11 defenders, regardless of race, creed or NFL experience. Luckily for them, the Browns’ defense doesn’t defend much better than an average group of tail-gaters who’ve just polished off their first 2 cases of morning beer, so they have a chance to score actual football points this week. Kyle Boller returns at QB for the Ravens, so at least they’ve got an arm in there capable of throwing incompletions at all 3 levels. The Ravens’ may look to run Willis McGahee over the right side quite a bit in this game as the Browns’ Shaun Smith is newly injured coming into this game, and listed as “?”. Smith has been okay at DE this year, getting the bulk of the tackles there while splitting time with the aging Orpheus Roye.

Key Match-Up #2: Derek Anderson versus the Ravens’ defense. The Ravens’ secondary has been plagued by injuries this past month, and may be only slightly better this week. Samari Rolle, CB, is still out, and C. McCallister is “?”. Jamal Lewis, RB, would like to have a good game for the Browns versus his old team, but will be hard-pressed in doing so versus one of the best run defenses in the league, so it looks to be up to D. Anderson to perform well versus the blitz-happy Ravens’ defense and hook up with good group of receivers and TEs. Anderson is mobile in the pocket, and the Ravens’ blitzes appear spasmodically haphazard at times, so maybe Anderson will be able to duck away to the outside and complete some big passes downfield like the Steelers were able to do a couple of weeks ago.

Final Score Prediction: Cleveland 23 – Baltimore 21

Pittsburgh/-9.5/-11.5/Pittsburgh 4.5% value

New York Jets/40/41/Over 2.0% value

Key Match-Up #1: Kellen Clemens and his 59.3 QB rating versus the Steelers’ #1 rated pass defense. Ye-Gods, what a mismatch this game appears to be on every level. If the Jets’ 9^th worst ypc run game doesn’t pick up consistent yardage versus the Steelers’ 7^th best run defense, it could get realllll ugly for the Jets at home this week. Now that I look at it, perhaps the more important match-up will in fact be the Jets’ run offense versus the Steelers’ run defense, because it’s the more favorable match-up the Jets are presented with this week.

Key Match-Up #2: Willie Parker versus the Jets’ run defense. Once again, the passing mismatch is so huge as to be a non-issue. It’s a better than average Steelers pass attack versus one of the absolute worst pass defenses in the league. It’s not a match-up, it’s a total mismatch. Even still, the Steelers will want to run the ball plenty versus an also poor Jets’ run defense. If the Jets aren’t able to thwart the occasional Steeler drive with good run defense on 1^st and 2^nd down, the Steelers may score on every possession of the game. In the end, if the Jets’ aren’t able to hold their own in the trenches offensively and defensively, they’ll be obliterated in this game.

Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh 27 – NY Jets 14

Tampa Bay/-3.5/-5/Tampa Bay 4.8% value

Atlanta/35.5/37.5/Over 5.7% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Falcons’ running game versus the Bucs’ run defense. The running game will provide the Falcons with their best opportunity to move the chains in this game. Jerious Norwood, who’s missed the last 1.5 games with an injury, is now supposed to return for this game, and it couldn’t have come at a bette time. The Falcons have a slightly below average run offense, while the Bucs have a slightly better than average run defense. If the Falcons can’t pick up good yards on the early downs with the run, they’ll find it tough to extend drives with the pass as the Bucs have a very good pass defense, while they themselves are more than a half yard worse per pass attempt than the league average. If Joey Harrington struggle (likely) and the Falcons fall behind, Byron Leftwich will be available to enter the game and stretch the field with his big arm (if not sacked first, as the Falcons sport the 3^rd worst sacks allowed average in the league).

Key Match-Up #2: Jeff Garcia versus the Falcons’ run defense. Unfortunately for the Bucs, Ernest Graham, the running back they acquired after their entire backfield was erased by injuries, comes into this game with a fresh foot/ankle injury. He’d been running the ball pretty well since joining the team. He’s listed as questionable, and I’d lean toward him playing. Michael Pittman, one of the aforementioned injured running backs, is slated to return this week. So basically, the Bucs have one gimpy RB, and one possibly recovered from being gimpy RB in the backfield. Graham’s injury basically negates the small advantage the Bucs running game would have versus the Falcon run defense. So…Jeff Garcia may be required to carry the team on his shoulders once again. He’s proven himself capable of doing just that, and should have good success versus a Falcon pass defense that rates right near the middle of the pack.

Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay 21 – Atlanta 16

Arizona/+3/+2.5/Arizona 1.5% value

Cincinatti/48.5/49/Over 1.1% value

Key Match-Up: Pass offenses versus pass defenses, as this game stands a good chance of turning into an all-out, good old fashioned Ohio air show. Sure the Cardinals will run the ball versus the Bengals’ poor run defense, but that’ll probably only net them league average gains, as the Cardinal running game has been rather poor so far this year. League average on the ground just won’t cut it when Warner can take to the air and average almost 7 yppa by my calculations. That’s almost a full yard better than league average, and they’ll need those bonus yards as the Bengals figure to throw it for an average of 6.6 yards in this match-up, and that’s a conservative estimate, because the loss of Adrian Wilson and pass-rusher Bertrand Berry are applied evenly to the defensive statistics. The Bengals will heavily favor the pass in this game, as the running match-up is really unfavorable – a projected 3.14 ypc. So yeah, like Haley Joel Osment saw “dead people,” I see “dead running games” and a good old fashioned Ohio air show come Sunday in this game.

Final Score Prediction: Arizona 24 – Cincinatti 27

Miami/+9.5/+15.5/Philadelphia 15.4% value (line is with Westbrook “?”)

Philadelphia/40.5/41.5/Over 2.9% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Dolphins’ run offense versus the Eagles’ run defense. It’s pretty much a given that rookie starting QB John Beck will have his hands full in this, his first start, versus a good defense. Therefore, the Dolphins best chance to stay competitive in this game is to pound the football with their successful running game versus a pretty good Eagle run defense. The Eagles’ pass defense is their weaker facet, but it’s not nearly poor enough for a QB seeing his first ever NFL action to consistently exploit. If the Dolphins can’t avoid 3^rd down and long yardage situations, this game could get way out of hand.

Key Match-Up #2: Brian Westbrook versus the Dolphin defense. Brian Westbrook didn’t practice Friday and was downgraded to “?”. Odds are it’s just a little ploy while resting Westbrook, who’s had some injury problems this year, and that he’ll probably play. If he does, the Dolphins are in a world of hurt this game, because their only chance of limiting the Eagles’ offense this game is to stuff the Westbrook-less Eagles on running plays and hope for the occasional McNabb 3^rd down misfire. The Dolphins’ pass defense is so poor that if they get no help up front they may be burned by some huge plays on 3^rd and short type situations when their defense gambles on defending the run. Even Westbrook is downgraded further I’m still betting on the Eagles. (and if he’s a game time decision it’ll be hard to get the line value that would be introduced if he’s downgraded to out), because I still show plenty of line value on the Eagles without him in there. Correl Buckhalter has picked up good yards in relief of Westbrook (though Buckhalter didn’t play last week, and I’m not sure why. He’s not showing up on injury reports so I have to assume he’s probable this week), and the Eagles’ passing game can still take it to the Dolphins. McNabb may be getting a little bit of his game legs back, and the Dolphins have been pretty woeful at getting to the opposing QBs this year. The Dolphins will also be without Matt Roth, DE, for this game, and he’s been having a pretty solid year. Jevon Kearse will be out for the Eagles at DE, but he’s got far better help at his position available than the Dolphins do for Roth.

Final Score Prediction: Miami 13 – Philadelphia 29

New England/-15.5/-12.5/Buffalo 6.8% value

Buffalo/46.5/43.5/Under 6.8% value

Key Match-Up #1: Tom Brady versus the photographers’ lens, because he probably spent more time during the bye week worrying about that then the Bills’ pass defense. Brady and Co. have actually faced 3 worse pass defenses than the Bills sport this year in the Jets, Bengals and Browns. Still, the Bills’ pass defense is closer in performance to the poor pass defenses the Patriots have faced than the good ones, so the Bills have basically no shot at slowing down the Patriots’ pass attack unless some high winds decided to accompany the near-freezing temperatures projected for this game.

Key Match-Up #2: JP Losman versus the Patriots’ defense. Let me be the first (maybe) to say that missing Marshawn Lynch will not adversely affect the Bills that much this week. In the second half when you figure to be trailing by double-digits, you have to pass the ball more than you run if you want a shot at winning, plain and simple. M. Lynch has 196 rush attempts versus only 15 pass receptions, so he’s normally not much of a threat in the passing game. Any of the guys behind him could come in and catch the passes thrown to the RB with near equal success. The guys behind him may even be better pass-blockers (I don’t know, I’m just saying, he being a rookie and all). If the Bills were playing a team that they had a realistic chance of beating, Lynch’s absence would have much greater impact, as they’d be running him right up until the end of the game, normally.

Final Score Prediction: New England 28 -- Bills 14

Washington/+11/+15/Dallas 8.3% value

Dallas/47/48/Over 1.7% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Redskins’ run defense versus the Cowboys’ run attack. The Redskins’ secondary is currently undermanned and will have a tough time stopping the Cowboys 2^nd rated pass attack, even thought the Redskins’ pass defense has been pretty good this year up until now. Their only chance is to win some battles at the line of scrimmage on early running downs and hope for a few stalled drives.

Key Match-Up #2: The Redskins’ run offense versus the Cowboys’ run attack. The Redskins’ most favorable match-up on offense will be with the run. They’ll also want to grind the clock this game, limiting the number of possessions that the Cowboys’ potent offense will have. Not only that, but the Redskins are decimated at WR right now. Sure, they’ve recently upgraded Santana Moss to probable, but he wore a boot on Friday and was most likely upgraded because the Redskins literally do not even have enough healthy wide receivers to line up for 3-receiver formations if he’s not active, lol. Their other starting receiver, Randle El, is also playing through lingering injuries. Chris Cooley, say hello to Mr. Football.

Final Score Prediction: Washington 16 – Dallas 31

New Orleans/+1/+4.5/Houston 7.3% value

Houston/48/48/No value

Key Match-Up: Either team’s run defense vs. the opponent’s run offense. First, let’s just get this out of the way – both teams are capable of passing lights out in this game. Both pass defenses are going to suck. Both teams have dealt with injuries and poor yards per carry in the backfield this year. The Saints’ run defense had been pretty solid until they got hit with injuries on their defensive line a couple of weeks ago. The Rams, with the returning Stephen Jackson, were able to gain 133 yards at 3.91 per carry last week versus the Saints, the first time the Saints had allowed more than 100 rush yards since their opening week drubbing at the hands of the Colts. These injuries may give the Texans’ poor run offense just enough breathing room to not have to be completely reliant on Matt Schaubs’ return at QB. Unfortunately for the Texans’ they’ll be without Ahman Green at RB again this week, as Mr. “Old and Injury Prone” has missed almost half of this season because of injuries. Ron Dayne, his back up, has been good for 3.5 yards and a cloud of Cheetoh dust, but he’ll need to do better than that or the Saints will have the decided edge in the running game. But honestly, who’s to say how much either team will run in this game? When it comes down to it, you’d rather have Ron Dayne in there on 3^rd and 1 then Reggie Bush. The Texans have a higher yards per pass attempt than the Saints, and will be getting their #1 receiver Andre Johnson back this year, and will face the worst secondary in the league. The Saints’ chances for competing in this game hinge upon their passing game enjoying the success it’s had lately, and there’s no reason they shouldn’t versus an also awful Texan pass defense. Still, the edge goes to the home team.

Final Score Prediction: New Orleans 23 – Houston 27

Carolina/+9.5/+13/Green Bay 9.4% value

Green Bay/37.5/40.5/Over 8.2% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Panthers’ run game versus the Packers’ run defense. If the Panthers are to have any success in sustaining drives and scoring points, it’ll be on the back of their running game. DeShaun Foster, RB, who was listed as “?” earlier in the week, has been upgraded to probable, and they’d better hope he’s near 100%, as he’s been their main workhorse. If not, DeAngelo Williams will get more carries, and that’s not such a bad thing as he’s averaged 5 yards per carry versus Foster’s 3.82. The Panthers can’t rely on their Testaverede-Carr QB “Combo O’ Futility” to carry the day for them on the road at Lambeau. Testaverde will start, and that’s probably a good thing, as Carr has probably only played a few cold-weather games in his life, lol, growing up in California, playing his collegiate ball at Fresno State, and the bulk of his NFL career in Houston. David, those sacks hurt twice as much in the cold, buddy!

Key Match-Up #2: The Panthers’ pass defense versus Brett Favre and his cadre of quality receivers. The Panthers have been fair at defending the pass this year, just slightly worse than league average. Unfortuantely for them, they’ll be facing a Packer passing game that is peaking after getting Koren Robinson back from suspension, and Ruvell Martin back from injury. Add that to Greg Jennings, who missed the first couple of games with injury, the ever-dependable Donald Driver, and the developing rookie James Jones, and you’ve got one hell of a receiving corps. The Panther pass rush is just not getting to the QB like they used to, so the Panthers are really in a bind. If they blitz (which they don’t seem to do, as their linebackers have a combined 2 sacks, and their secondary none) to help out in the pass rush, Favre is very good at the quick-hitting routes and has receivers that can really hurt you with the yards after the catch. They’ll probably just drop back, hoping to clog the field with enough bodies to catch an errant or tipped pass. This “on your heels” defense, when combined with the hard-rushing edge defenders, will allow the Packers to run the ball on the delayed handoffs for some big gainers like they did against Minnesota last week.

Final Score Prediction: Carolina 14 – Green Bay 27

New York Giants/-2.5/+3/Detroit 10.9% value

Detroit/48.5/46.5/Under 4.1% value

Key Match-Up #1: Giants’ pass rush versus Lions’ pass blocking. The Giants have been the most sack-happy team in the league since altering their scheme back in week 3. They’ll be licking their lips when thinking of Detroit this week, even though it isn’t the Lions traditional turkey-bowl game they’ll be playing in. The Lions do, indeed, give up the sack. It’s a pretty bad mismatch, but you have to know the Lions are aware of it and will have a game plan to hopefully counter the Giants’ ferocious rush. The Lions run game just hasn’t produced well enough to be relied upon in this game, even when facing an average Giants’ run defense. Screens? Quick slants? The Lions will have to do something or Kitna may never get the taste of artificial turf out of his mouth.

Key Match-Up #2: Eli Manning versus the Lions’ pass defense. The Giants have had more success running the ball this year than they’ve had passing. Derrick Ward will be out again injured, so Brandon Jacobs will be smashed into the Lions’ stout defensive line. The Lions have been quite good at defending the run this year, so it’ll be up to Eli to make the big throws when needed to to move the chains. If he struggles, the Lions will get enough possessions and short field to get the victory in this game.

Final Score Prediction: New York Giants 21 – Detroit 24

Saint Louis/-3/0/San Francisco 8.3% value

San Francisco/39/36/Under 7.4% value

Key Match-Ups: Run offenses versus run defenses. The team that wins this game will have to have success in the run game. The 49ers’ secondary is good enough to slow down the Rams’ pass attack that struggles when not playing week pass defenses in a dome, a la last week. The Rams’ running game had its’ second best performance of the year with Stephen Jackson back in the backfield last week, so while they bring a really poor ypc average into this game, it’s got nowhere to go but up. The Rams’ run defense is slightly worse than league average, and the 49ers will be even more reliant on their run game than the Rams. Frank Gore finally managed to finish a game last week, but it’s getting hard to predict how healthy he is and how well he’ll perform on the field. Dilfer is no worse than a less than 100% Alex Smith, so he should some success versus a poor Rams’ secondary. The Rams are starting to be more aggressive in attacking the QB, which could pay dividends versus the nearly geriatric Dilfer if he doesn’t unload the ball quickly.

All in all, I think people are over-valuing the Rams’ offensive performance last week, and devaluing the 49ers defensive performance all year, but with two teams playing as generally bad these two, it’s hard to make a bet with any confidence on either side.

Final Score Prediction: Saint Louis 17 – San Francisco 17 (no one scores in OT, lol)

Chicago/+5.5/+4.5/Chicago 2.9% value

Seattle/37.5/39.5/Over 4.9% value

Key Match-Up #1: Rex Grossman versus the Seattle pass defense. The Bears have basically proved themselves incapable of running the ball on anyone, and I mean anyone. They ran the ball 78 times for 34 yards last week, an average of 2.29 ypc versus the Raiders. Yup, the same Raiders who’d been giving up an average of 5.23 ypc per game leading up to last week. So, it’s going to fall on Rex Grossman to complete enough passes to generate scoring drives – unless Devin Hester manages to save the day as he often does.

Key Match-Up #2: The Seahawks’ weakness at running the ball will average out with the Bears weakness at defending the run, so I see the 2^nd key match-up being Matt Hasselbeck versus the Bears’ pass defense. Anyone that watched the MNF game last week knows the Matt Hasselbeck is a “Top 5 Quarterback.” Sure, he’s pretty good. He may even get Deion Branch back this week. It’s up to the Bears somewhat better than average pass defense to limit Hasselbecks’ success in this game. If they don’t, Sexy Rexy will not have enough opportunities to work his “1/4 boom, 3/4 bust” style of offensive magic.

Final Score Prediction: Chicago 17 – Seattle 21

Tennessee/+2/+3.5/Denver 4.5% value

Denver/ 38/39.5/Over 3.3% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Titans’ run offense versus the Broncos’ run defense. Much maligning has been heaped upon the Denver run defense this year, and rightly so, as they’ve given up an average of 4.93 ypc. The Titans are sometimes thought of as a dominant running team, but the numbers just don’t support this, as they have a below league average of 3.94 ypc. They come into this game with their leading rusher, LenDale White, still bothered by injury. Chris Brown, their leading rusher 2 and 3 seasons ago, has been injured in the latter half of the season to date and comes into this questionable, leaning to doubtful, I’d say. That leaves them with Chris Henry, rookie, in only his second game back from suspension, and a total of 21 carries as they’re only fully healthy back. Last week he ad 3 carries for -2 yards versus the Jaguars. If the Titans are unable to gain consistent yards with their running game, they’ll lose, because of key match-up #2.

Key Match-Up #2: Vince Young versus the Broncos’ pass defense. You can call Vince Young a winner, that’s fine, just don’t call him a passer. He’s got a QB rating of 62.2. versus Jay Cutlers’ 84.8 He’ll get plenty of opportunities to prove that he can beat single coverage in this game, and it’s completely on his shoulders to make the Broncos pay for cheating versus the run. I personally don’t think he’ll be able to carry the day and the Broncos will get the home win.

Final Score Prediction: Tennessee 17 – Denver 21