Texans @ Browns Week #12

“Defenseless” – The Week 12 Movie Starring the Texans and Browns

When the Browns’ 25th ranked rush defense is the highest ranking group of the Browns’ and Texans’ combined rush and pass defenses, you know you’re not going to sit down to a game of field position in Cleveland come Sunday. The Browns’ 29th ranked pass defense, and the Texans’ 26th ranked run defense and 27th ranked pass defense all at least share the honor of not being amongst the 3 lowest rated groups in the league. Both teams are known for poor tackling. If football were fishing these two teams would return home after 30 minutes of unsuccessfully trying to open the tackle box, without a single cast into the water.

Having quickly established that defense will not be at a premium, which offense will best capitalize on the capitulating defenses? Curtly, the Texans. Both teams have excellent run offenses this year, the Texans ranked 5th and the Browns 4th. Both teams are starting quarterbacks who were not the starters at the beginning of the year. The Texans, because of injury. The Browns, because of “What the Hell, we suck this year so we might as well see what Brady Quinn can do.” Both replacements have been pretty good so far, though Sage Rosenfels has been far more careless with the ball, though he does throw for a much higher yards per pass. The Texans throw (by my rescored stats) for 7.3 yards per pass, while the Browns throw for 5.8. That’s a pretty significant advantage, and one I’ll bet on.

Not only do the Texans have the advantage in the passing game, they should have the advantage in the running game for a couple of reason. One, Jerome Harrison, the quick back who’s had some big runs for the Browns this season, including a 72 yarder for a touchdown versus the Bills last week, is freshly injured and is looking doubtful for this week. That takes away the one two punch the Browns have utilized successfully this year with Jamal Lewis. The Texans have developed their own successfully running back combo with the speedy rookie Steve Slaton and the “I can’t believe he’s not still injured” short yardage back Ahman Green. The Texans rested Slaton a couple of weeks ago versus the Ravens as the rookie was starting to tire out some, and he came back fresh with a big game versus the Colts last week, getting 150+ on the ground.

With a better backfield, more experienced quarterback (keep the turnovers down please, Sage) and equally poor defenses, I like the Texans to get their first road victory of the season this week. On a side note, the Texans do have the worst red zone defense in the league, but Quinn is yet to show a consistent ability to crack the goal line when near it, as the compressed field is generally the toughest place for inexperienced quarterbacks to play well. The Texans are more successful than the Browns in the red zone, so it should balance out pretty evenly.

In spite of the poor defenses and the title of this write up, I don’t like this game to go Over 50 points as both teams figure to run quite a bit. It only takes a few clock-grinding drives ending in short field goals to keep a game under 50 barring multiple large special teams or defensive plays/scores. That being said, I sure as shinola wouldn’t take the Under either, as this game is as likely as any to go for 50 or 60 points this week.

Final Score Prediction: Texans 24 – Browns 23