Monday, February 20, 2012

2011 NFL Final Results (6 of 7 winning seasons)

Had a good playoff run to cap off an otherwise mediocre winning season. We had some terrible luck on sides early in the season, a stretch where when picking all sides I was near 50% but on games bet was well below that. The end result was that I never pulled out of the red on sides for the season. I've actually done that before; been a small loser on sides for a season but a pretty good winner overall because of success in the other categories. Since pro style teasers are hard to come by nowadays with fewer book options for US players and many books playing games with their numbers to avoid being hit by pro style teasers the profit from teasers has predictably come way down from where it was years ago. My best overall category this year was bets on Team Total points. I did really, really well on those -- they are one of the absolute best ways to take advantage of key scoring numbers when wagering. We saved an amazing number of points against closing numbers this year, around 150. I haven't always kept track of the total number of points saved, but the last season I did it was also over 100. This is evidence of being on the sharp side of the market, for better or worse -- usually better, as I've finished up a winner in 6 of the 7 seasons I've handicapped the NFL using my complex spreadsheet system to look for line value.

2011 NFL Playoffs Results

The numbers really shone in the playoffs, as I turned a profit in every week, which was a nice way to end an otherwise mediocre winning season.