NFC Home Field Advantage Game - GB & Dal

NFC Home Field Advantage Game

Legend

Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value

Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

Green Bay/+7/+6/Green 1.7% value

Dallas/51.5/51.5/No value

These isolated games played on Thursday have featured very tight lines the last couple of weeks. Last week the three superior teams all covered the chalk, two of them on the road. Interestingly, both of these teams may prefer to meet each other on the road in the playoffs, lol. The Packers will want a fair weather Dallas game to help their passing game, while Dallas may prefer a game at Lambeau with nasty weather as they have the superior run game. Still, I don’t think you’ll see either team throwing this game tonight just to lose home field advantage for the NFC championship game, lol.

When Green Bay is on offense, it seems obvious what they will do. They’ll line up with a minimum of three wide receiver sets. David Lee, their TE, has near as many catches as their wide receivers, so you’re looking at a minimum of four receiving threats on every play. Favre will take most snaps out of the gun. Green Bay will line up Grant or Morency in the backfield and will run the occasional draw and dump off passes to them. Morency actually has more pass receptions than run attempts, while Grant has a run to catch ratio of four to one. Last week the Packers only ran the ball once they had a large lead in the second half. As they don’t figure to ever be in that situation tonight, the Packers will be passing on almost every play. This gives the Dallas defense the advantage of knowing what they’re facing on most downs. I would expect the Cowboys to bring either Ware from the right side or Ellis from the left side on almost every play. These two have got to be salivating coming into this game knowing that at least one of them will have the opportunity for a sack on almost every play. Dallas will want to put enough pressure on Favre to take away the long balls over the top that take more time to set up. They’ll want to force Favre into quicker, shorter routes and hope for mistakes or incompletions.

When Dallas is on offense, they’ll run first to set up the pass. They actually run the ball a higher percentage of time than the league average, though of course that average is probably skewed somewhat as they’ve had good leads late and run more then. Still, they’ve been very successful running the ball as they’ve averaged 4.42 yards per carry, so whether a team has expected the run or not the Cowboys have been successful regardless. The Packers have lost two defensive tackles recently, Jolly and Cole, which leaves them with only Pickett, Williams, and the undersized Montgomery to play inside on their four man defensive front. A steady dose of inside running will freeze the Green Bay linebackers and safeties enough to free up the big passing plays down the field for the Cowboys. So while the Dallas defense will usually know what’s coming, the Green Bay defense will have to have their heads and eyes in the game on every play or they’ll run the risk of giving up a big play to the big play capable Dallas offense.

The danger with betting the Cowboys in this game is that unless they have a larger than thirteen point lead late in this game, the Packers are entirely capable of getting the late back door score to cover the spread. There’s just too much volatility with these two good offensive and defensive teams to make a play with any confidence, be it on a side or the total. I’d recommend keeping your money in your pocket and heading down to your favorite sports bar (make sure they have the NFL Network, lol) to enjoy the game, and if you know my betting style you know there’s not many games I recommend passing on completely. This is one of them.

Final Score Prediction: Green Bay 23 – Dallas 28