Week #12 Write-Ups, Lines and Values

Week #12 Write-Ups, Lines and Values

Lots of family time this holiday weekend = less time for write-ups, but we’re having fun so the tradeoff is worth it for the writer, lol. Off to a great start with the Turkey day plays as every 2^nd half play recommended by my line generator turned out to be a winner (the Under 21 Colts/Falcons 2^nd half was recommended, the Falcons +7 was not, and was what shot down the tiny “for fun” parlay in that game.).

Legend

Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value

Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

Denver/+1.5/0/Denver 3.9% value

Chicago/41/42/Over 2.0% value

The Bears’ backsliding continued last week and now face a revitalized Bronco team hungry for wins to keep them in the playoff hunt. The anemic Bears’ run game will have a hard time challenging Denvers’ “poor but improving” run defense, and Grossman is likely to throw two or three picks in the Windy City versus a still decent Denver secondary. Jay Cutler showed on national tv last week that he has the game to pick up big yards versus good pass defenses, and this week gets Javon Walker back at WR. The Bears will need to get good pressure on Cutler or the Broncos may cruise to another 14 point victory like they did versus the Titans last week. Travis Henry has just been downgraded to doubtful, and the line is rebounding from +1.5 to +2, but I hardly think it will matter as long as Selvin Young is healthy enough to at least split carries with Hall.

Final Score Prediction: Denver 21 – Chicago 20

Tennessee/-1.5/+4.5/Cincinatti 13.0% value

Cincinatti/46.5/44/Under 5.3% value

The Titans are on the road for the second straight week, and I see little reason why Carson Palmer and Co. can’t carve up the Titan defense like the Broncos did last week – Palmer and Cutler have near identical QB ratings. The Bengal offensive line is probably weaker than Denvers’, as is their running game, but they’ll still get the home victory coming into this one as an underdog. The line opened as a pick, and once again the early money came in on the Titans. I’m not sure why everyone is so enamored with a team that starts a QB with a 64.3 rating. On ESPN you always hear how the Titans have the 4^th best running game in the league. You know what? That’s total crap. Just because they have the 4^th highest average of rushing yards per game does not make them the team with the 4^th best running game. That the biggest sports network in the world still relies on using the totally misleading category of total yards for its’ statistics is beyond ridiculous. The Titans’ average exactly 4 yards per carry, which is right on the league average, and the only reason they’re even “average” is because of Vince Young’s scrambles. Vince has averaged 4.4 yards per “run.” Their top back, LenDale White, averages 3.5 yards per run. Chris Brown does have a 5.2 ypc average, but he’s missed nearly half the season with injury and only has 20 more rushing yards than VY. Chris Henry, the rookie RB, looks to be suspended again.

This week the Titans’ will be without Benji Olson, RG, again, so that’s a blow to their offensive line. Nick Harper, CB, has returned to practice, though still “?”. Albert Haynesworth, DT, is still “?” after missing a second week, and this team doesn’t look capable of winning games on the road without him right now. The good news for the Titans is that they’ll be up against a soft Bengal defense, but the Bengals will surely put more men in the box and force VY to beat them through the air like Denver did last week. VY made a lot of good throws, but when the 4^th quarter came calling and the Titans needed to make up a deficit, he had some lousy throws that resulted in interceptions that ended the game for them. I see the same thing happening to them again this week.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 24 – Titans 20

Buffalo/-8/-10.5/Jacksonville 6.4% value

Jacksonville/36.5/38.5/Over 5.3% value

Jacksonville has been known to thoroughly wax inferior opponents from time to time at home, and all the signs for this game point to blow out potential. The Bills will once again be without Marshawn Lynch at RB. The Bills only opportunity to win this game will be with JP Losman and the air attack. The Jaguars have been susceptible to teams that throw the ball well, and have some fresh injuries that will help out the Bills. Mike Peterson, the Jags’ stud middle linebacker, broke his hand last week and is out indefinitely. Rashean Mathis, a starting CB, strained his groin last week and is “?”, leaning toward doubtful right now. Reggie Nelson, starting safety, was “?” on the injury reports earlier in the week but is not showing up now, so I assume he’s been upgraded to probable. If the Buffalo defense ends up spending a lot of time on the field like they did last week, they’re bound to be completely blown off the line again late in the game by the Jacksonville running game. Jacksonville typically has a running game that gets stronger the more they wear the opponent down, so there’s nothing to indicate that the Bills will be able to slow the Jags down at any point of this game really, as David Garrard has been outstanding this year as the Jags’ QB with a 104.6 QB rating and no interceptions thrown in 2007. The Jaguars should cruise to an easy victory like they did versus the Chargers last week, and the potential for a 20 point victory is certainly present.

Final Score Prediction: Buffalo 14 – Jacksonville 24

Oakland/+5.5/+9/Kansas City 10.6% value

Kansas City/34.5/32/Under 6.8% value

The Raiders’ best chance to hang around in this game will be with the running game, but it’ll be no easy task versus a better than average Chiefs’ run defense. One third downs or whenever the Raiders take to the air, it’ll be even tougher going as they have one of the worst pass games in the league and face a better than average pass defense that pressures the opposing QB well. The Chiefs’ offensive line has been pretty lousy as well, which is why they’ve had an ineffective run game and given up sacks all year. At least in their favor is the fact that the Raiders don’t get consistent pressure on opposing QBs and don’t defend the run very well either. The Chiefs are down to starting a rookie RB and their rookie QB Croyle in this game, but the biggest edge in this game goes to the Chiefs’ defense versus the Raider offense, and my spreadsheet predicts a comfortable victory for the home team. Four Janikowski field goals will not be enough for the Raiders.

Final Score Prediction: Raiders 12 – Chiefs 21

Houston/+3/+1/Houston 4.0% value

Cleveland/51/51/No value

Both teams feature potent passing attacks with a big running back to pick up the short yardage when necessary. Ahman Green will be out at RB for the Texans again, but his absence won’t hurt them much as this will be a pass-dominated game. The Texans have an even shot at winning this road game as they bring a superior pass offense and total defense to Cleveland. The only area in this game in which the Browns are superior is with the run offense, but it’s not nearly enough of an edge to ride to victory, as the run games will sit in the sidecar as this game zips down the road.

Final Score Prediction: Houston 27 – Cleveland 28

Seattle/-3/-4.5/Seattle 3.4% value

Saint Louis/44.5/43.5/Under 2.2% value

The Rams will be back in their element this week, but will it be enough to be at home? The Seahawks have had the far more consistent passing game this year, though their QB comes into this game having missed practice time an injury, though it looks as if he’ll be largely unaffected and is definitely going to start. With Stephen Jackson back in the lineup the Rams aren’t the sitting ducks they used to be. The Rams’ offensive line always seems to get a new guy injured just when somebody is coming back, and this week is no different. Their poor offensive line play could once again lead to Seattle getting tremendous pressure on Bulger like they did in the game they played earlier this year. Ultimately, I think that will be the difference maker. Hasselbeck has had good protection in the pocket this year and consistently finds the open receiver, while Bulger has been constantly harried and will probably will be again this Sunday.

Final Score Prediction: Seattle 24 – Saint Louis 20

Minnesota/+7/-1/Minnesota 20.5% value

NY Giants/40/39.5/Under 1.7% value

This game features, by far, the biggest mismatch in the running game on the entire card this week. Brandon Jacobs will be out for the game, so the Giants will have to rely on the “just returning from injury” Derrick Ward and Reuben Droughns to get yards versus the number one rush defense in the league. The Giants will be without one of their top linebackers for the rest of the season, Mathias Kiwanuka. Adrian Peterson has actually been upgraded to “?”, but I’m going to list him as doubtful anyway, because I have enough line value on the Vikings as it is. T. Jackson had one of his best games at QB in his young career last week, and will only need an average game to help his team to a close road victory. The Giants continue to be one of the most overrated teams in the league, as they’re just average defensively and have a sub-par NFL quarterback with Eli Manning. As it’ll be tough going running the ball for them this week, Eli may not be able to pass the team to victory – so yeah, don’t be surprised if the Giants go down as a 7 point home favorite this week.

Final Score Prediction: Minnesota 21 – NY Giants 20

New Orleans/-2.5/+1.5/Carolina 9.6% value

Carolina/41.5/41.5/No value

Reggie Bush is listed as “?” after missing practice time this week, but he’ll probably end up playing anyway as usual. The complete lack of offensive balance will hurt the Saints again this week versus a decent Panther defense. The Panthers will be without Chris Gamble, CB, which will hurt. On the plus side they’ll get Steve Smith back at WR. By my calculations, the Panthers will be able to average almost as many yards per pass attempt as the Saints this week because of the Saints’ poor pass defense. The Panthers have a big advantage in the running game, and will be able to run it right up the gut versus a Saints’ run defense that was pretty solid until they suffered injuries on their defensive line. The Saints will be without two of their four defensive tackles. The strong run-first option the Panthers possess in this game will give Testaverde the luxury of finding open receivers when he utilizes the play-action fake. With shorter down and distance yardages, the Panthers should be able to grind out a fair number of scoring drives, while the Saints will have many failed drives because of the boom or bust offense they’re forced to use without a good running game.

Final Score Prediction: New Orleans 20 – Carolina 23

Washington/+3.5/+7.5/Tampa Bay 10.7% value

Tampa Bay/38/40.5/Over 6.7% value

Jason Campbell looked impressive with many good completions versus the Dallas defense last week. The Bucs actually have a better pass defense than the Cowboys, so it may be tough to have a repeat performance for a second straight road game. The Bucs also have a good run defense and should be up to the task of keeping the Redskins’ run game from breaking out this game.

Jeff Garcia just had to manage the game versus the Falcons after the game after the Bucs got out to the big early lead. He only completed 11 of 21 passes, but with the big td strike to Galloway he averaged a healthy 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The Bucs will probably have to rely more on his passing this week, as Michael Pittman is down again with an injury after only making his return last week. Ernest Graham, the RB who has filled in nicely at RB since coming over to the Bucs will have to handle the bulk of the carries though he’s been a bit dinged up for the past week or two. The Redskins have a pretty good run defense, so the Bucs, with only one good back available, may look to attack the Redskins’ secondary that has suffered numerous injuries in the past few weeks. The Redskins’ secondary had been a pretty solid unit, but have now given up an average of 7.18 yards per pass attempt in their last 5 games when the aforementioned injuries started to accrue. This leads to the biggest mismatch in the game and a home victory for the Bucs.

Final Score Prediction: Washington 17 – Tampa Bay 24

San Francisco/+10.5/+9/San Francisco 4.6% value

Arizona/38/37/Under 2.0% value

The Cardinals come into this game after a big road win versus the Bengals in which they won courtesy of 4 interceptions after being outgained by almost a full yard per offensive play for the course of the game. The 49ers with Dilfer at QB showed a little bit of a spark last week, but couldn’t turn any of those sparks into a touchdown flame and suffered another defeat as a result. The Cardinals will be without Pro Bowl safety Adrian Wilson again, and have a few other injuries to their defense as well. The 49ers’ defense continues to play pretty well in losing efforts, and actually have a pretty good match up this week with their secondary versus the Cardinal pass attack. If the 49er offense can get anything going in this game there’s a chance they can hang with the Cardinals, but that’s still a pretty order as the Cardinals have been pretty tough at home this year.

Final Score Prediction: San Francisco 14 – Arizona 23

Baltimore/+9/+13.5/San Diego 11.7% value

San Diego/38.5/38/Under 1.2% value

I just saw Ray Lewis on tv sporting a hoodie with some kind of teamwork inspirational slogan on it, but this team has to be feeling deflated after the heartbreaking loss to Cleveland last week. Now they travel from coast to coast and face a San Diego team that has played pretty well at home. The last time Baltimore’s sputtering offense visited the west coast they scored nine points versus the 49ers. Nine points won’t get it done in this game. Boller can stretch the field more than McNair, and did make some big plays in the second half versus the Browns last week – but was the Browns, and they have one of the worst secondaries in the league. One half of offensive production will also not get it done versus the Chargers. I’d put the Chargers down for a couple of picks in this game versus a Ravens team that will probably be playing from behind in the second half.

All eyes are on Phillip Rivers as he’s just not playing up to expectations this year. He doesn’t seem to be handling the blitz well this year and has had poor field vision. This could be a problem versus a Baltimore defense that likes to bring the heat. One would hope that even a coach as mediocre as Norv Turner will have a good game plan in place to counter the Ravens’ aggressiveness. The Chargers will really need to get LT going in this game to take Rivers out of obvious passing downs. It won’t be easy, but all in all the Chargers should find enough offensive success to beat a Ravens team that will struggle for any offensive points in this game. One key turnover by the Ravens may lead to an easy Charger score and give them the comfortable two touchdown win.

Projected Final Score: Baltimore 12 – San Diego 26

Philadelphia/+24/+13.5/Philadelphia 21.0% value

New England/50.5/50/Under 0.9% value

McNabb will sit this one out, but I say good riddance. Feeley has had a better QB rating in the limited game time he’s seen over the last two years. The extra mobility will come in handy versus a Patriots’ defense that brings blitzes from all angles. I guess it’s pointless to point out why I think the Eagles will cover this game, as no one seems to believe that will happen, lol. But here’s one completely stupid reason. The Patriots have only beaten half of their opponents by more than 21 points, so don’t the Eagles at least have a 50/50 chance of covering this number?

Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia 17 – New England 34

Miami/+16/+15.5/Miami 1.1% value

Pittsburgh/40.5/38.5/Under 5.4% value

Miami will have a hard time cracking ten points this game, but may cover anyway, as I’m becoming increasingly less impressed with the Steelers’ offensive play calling. The Dolphins, already without Ronnie Brown at RB, may also be without his back up, Chatman, this week. He’s listed as “?” but will probably play if it’s a borderline situation because they’ll need something out of the backfield to take the pressure off of man-rookie QB John Beck who’ll be making his second career start on the road. In his first game last week wasn’t very impressive versus an average Eagles’ secondary. This week he faces the number one pass defense in the league, so good luck, John. Even without Polamalu in at safety, the Steelers have the ability to shut out the Dolphins in this game if they don’t give up any short fields. I’ll be very surprise if the Steelers don’t hold up their end of the teaser bargain at -3 for a second week in a row. This game has “Crush and Cruise” written all over it. The Steelers will acquire points through the first half and part way into the third, then go into clock-killing mode for the remainder of the game.

Final Score Prediction: 27 – Dolphins 10