Week #11 Key Match-Ups and Final Score Predictions
Legend
Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value
Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value
San Diego/+3/+3.5/Jacksonville 1.8% value
Jacksonville/40.5/42.5/Over 5.4% value
Key Match-Up #1: The Jaguars’ run attack versus the Charger defense. The two-headed attack of M. Jones Draw and F. Taylor has produced on a consistent basis this year. They’ve only faced two sub-par run defenses this year; the Broncos’ and the Texans’, so they’re used to a tough time in the trenches, and have still managed to gain better than the league averages. The Chargers’ run defense has started to slip, and has been hit with injuries at one of the defensive end positions’, losing Luis Castillo and having his backup, Jacques Cesaire, listed as “questionable” this week. This is not the bruising run offense you want to face with such a weakness on your defensive line. If the Chargers are unable to force the Jaguars into many obvious passing downs, David Garrard will have a much easier time of it at QB returning from his injury for the first game.
Key Match-Up #2: Phillip Rivers versus the Jaguar pass defense. Teams with good passing games have been able to exploit the Jaguar secondary this year. Heck, even Vince Young was able to complete almost 59% of his passes last week for 230 yards (though only 5.1 yppa) against them. Rivers started off the season pretty well but has been backsliding as of late. He did throw for a really high yppa versus the Texans a few games ago, but that was on only 11 throws. In games where he’s thrown 24 or more passes, his yppa per game average is only 4.97, well below the league average of 6.11. He figures to throw a lot of passes this game not only because it’s the Jaguars’ defensive weakness, but because they’re likely to be playing from behind in this game. If Rivers is unable to have a decent game throwing the ball, it’ll be a long game for the Chargers and they may get blown out. Playing in an early game after traveling from the west coast to the east coast doesn’t do them any favors either.
Final Score Prediction:
Indianapolis/42/43.5/Over 3.8% value
Key Match-Up #1: The Colts’ ground game versus the Chiefs’ defense. The Colts’ offensive line will have all of its’ starters back in place for this tilt. This is a big boost, as they figure to be running the ball A LOT as they should be leading on the scoreboard from start to finish. The Chiefs do have a slightly better than average run defense, so as funny as it sounds, they’ll want to force Peyton Manning into obvious passing downs where they’ll at least have a chance to kill some Colt drives. Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez will be out again, but the Colts will get Dallas Clark back. B. Fletcher will be newly out at TE for the Colts, but they still have Ben Utecht to back up D. Clark and to use in two TE formations.
Key Match-Up #2: Brodie Croyle versus the Colts’ defense and the “So loud it seems piped-in” crowd noise in the RCA dome. The Colts’ crowd noise should be turned up to 11 as they want nothing short of a blow out to get their team back on track after suffering their first losses of the season in back-to-back fashion. That’ll be tough for QB Croyle, making his 1st start in his 2nd NFL season. Luckily for him, he won’t have to worry about Dwight Freeney eating his proverbial lunch from the blind side. Still, the Chiefs’ offense has been so anemic this year, the Colts’ defense will be able to show about any look they want in an attempt to confuse Croyle and force him into mistakes. The Colts have been playing really good defense this year, so the Chiefs’ already struggling offense will struggle for every point they put on the scoreboard.
Final Score Prediction:
Oakland/+4.5/+11.5/Minnesota 19.5% value
Minnesota/35.5/38.5/Over 8.8% value
Key Match-Up #1: The Vikings’ offensive line versus the Raiders’ defense. The Raiders are well aware that the Vikings’ game plan doesn’t change much with Adrian Peterson out of the game. They’ll still run Chester Taylor behind their expensive, excellent offensive line and try to bully a Raider offensive line that gives up 4.79 ypc. Clearly the Raiders will put more men in the box and try to force T. Jackson to beat them with his inaccurate arm. If the Vikings are still able to gain 4-5 yards ypc versus a stacked box, the Raiders’ defensive line will be ground to a find black and silver powder by the time the game ends.
Key Match-Up #2: Daunte Culpepper versus the Vikings’ secondary. The Raiders are also aware of the fact that the Vikings’ defensive line will be ready for Vargas and Jordan this week, as the Raiders are normally a run-first offense. I expect the Raiders, who really have nothing to lose at his point of the season, to play-action more than usual and throw the ball on many first and second downs, as it’s probably their only chance to score points and win this football game. And why wouldn’t they try to air it out and pick up some big yards? Imagine the criticism Lane Kiffin and Co. will face if they just pound the ball into the Vikings’ #1 run defense all day and end up slinking away with a loss.
The Vikings, like the Chargers, also have a kick-off time equal to 10 AM hometown time.
Final Score Prediction:
Cleveland/-2.5/-1.5/Baltimore 2.3% value
Baltimore/43.5/44/Over 1.5% value
Key Match-Up #1: The Baltimore offense versus any 11 defenders, regardless of race, creed or NFL experience. Luckily for them, the Browns’ defense doesn’t defend much better than an average group of tail-gaters who’ve just polished off their first 2 cases of morning beer, so they have a chance to score actual football points this week. Kyle Boller returns at QB for the Ravens, so at least they’ve got an arm in there capable of throwing incompletions at all 3 levels. The Ravens’ may look to run Willis McGahee over the right side quite a bit in this game as the Browns’ Shaun Smith is newly injured coming into this game, and listed as “?”. Smith has been okay at DE this year, getting the bulk of the tackles there while splitting time with the aging Orpheus Roye.
Key Match-Up #2: Derek Anderson versus the Ravens’ defense. The Ravens’ secondary has been plagued by injuries this past month, and may be only slightly better this week. Samari Rolle, CB, is still out, and C. McCallister is “?”. Jamal Lewis, RB, would like to have a good game for the Browns versus his old team, but will be hard-pressed in doing so versus one of the best run defenses in the league, so it looks to be up to D. Anderson to perform well versus the blitz-happy Ravens’ defense and hook up with good group of receivers and TEs. Anderson is mobile in the pocket, and the Ravens’ blitzes appear spasmodically haphazard at times, so maybe Anderson will be able to duck away to the outside and complete some big passes downfield like the Steelers were able to do a couple of weeks ago.
Final Score Prediction:
Pittsburgh/-9.5/-11.5/Pittsburgh 4.5% value
New York Jets/40/41/Over 2.0% value
Key Match-Up #1: Kellen Clemens and his 59.3 QB rating versus the Steelers’ #1 rated pass defense. Ye-Gods, what a mismatch this game appears to be on every level. If the Jets’ 9th worst ypc run game doesn’t pick up consistent yardage versus the Steelers’ 7th best run defense, it could get realllll ugly for the Jets at home this week. Now that I look at it, perhaps the more important match-up will in fact be the Jets’ run offense versus the Steelers’ run defense, because it’s the more favorable match-up the Jets are presented with this week.
Key Match-Up #2: Willie Parker versus the Jets’ run defense. Once again, the passing mismatch is so huge as to be a non-issue. It’s a better than average Steelers pass attack versus one of the absolute worst pass defenses in the league. It’s not a match-up, it’s a total mismatch. Even still, the Steelers will want to run the ball plenty versus an also poor Jets’ run defense. If the Jets aren’t able to thwart the occasional Steeler drive with good run defense on 1st and 2nd down, the Steelers may score on every possession of the game. In the end, if the Jets’ aren’t able to hold their own in the trenches offensively and defensively, they’ll be obliterated in this game.
Final Score Prediction:
Atlanta/35.5/37.5/Over 5.7% value
Key Match-Up #1: The Falcons’ running game versus the Bucs’ run defense. The running game will provide the Falcons with their best opportunity to move the chains in this game. Jerious
Key Match-Up #2: Jeff Garcia versus the Falcons’ run defense. Unfortunately for the Bucs, Ernest Graham, the running back they acquired after their entire backfield was erased by injuries, comes into this game with a fresh foot/ankle injury. He’d been running the ball pretty well since joining the team. He’s listed as questionable, and I’d lean toward him playing. Michael Pittman, one of the aforementioned injured running backs, is slated to return this week. So basically, the Bucs have one gimpy RB, and one possibly recovered from being gimpy RB in the backfield. Graham’s injury basically negates the small advantage the Bucs running game would have versus the Falcon run defense. So…Jeff Garcia may be required to carry the team on his shoulders once again. He’s proven himself capable of doing just that, and should have good success versus a Falcon pass defense that rates right near the middle of the pack.
Final Score Prediction:
Arizona/+3/+2.5/Arizona 1.5% value
Cincinatti/48.5/49/Over 1.1% value
Key Match-Up: Pass offenses versus pass defenses, as this game stands a good chance of turning into an all-out, good old fashioned
Final Score Prediction:
Miami/+9.5/+15.5/Philadelphia 15.4% value (line is with Westbrook “?”)
Philadelphia/40.5/41.5/Over 2.9% value
Key Match-Up #1: The Dolphins’ run offense versus the Eagles’ run defense. It’s pretty much a given that rookie starting QB John Beck will have his hands full in this, his first start, versus a good defense. Therefore, the Dolphins best chance to stay competitive in this game is to pound the football with their successful running game versus a pretty good Eagle run defense. The Eagles’ pass defense is their weaker facet, but it’s not nearly poor enough for a QB seeing his first ever NFL action to consistently exploit. If the Dolphins can’t avoid 3rd down and long yardage situations, this game could get way out of hand.
Key Match-Up #2: Brian Westbrook versus the Dolphin defense. Brian Westbrook didn’t practice Friday and was downgraded to “?”. Odds are it’s just a little ploy while resting Westbrook, who’s had some injury problems this year, and that he’ll probably play. If he does, the Dolphins are in a world of hurt this game, because their only chance of limiting the Eagles’ offense this game is to stuff the Westbrook-less Eagles on running plays and hope for the occasional McNabb 3rd down misfire. The Dolphins’ pass defense is so poor that if they get no help up front they may be burned by some huge plays on 3rd and short type situations when their defense gambles on defending the run. Even Westbrook is downgraded further I’m still betting on the Eagles. (and if he’s a game time decision it’ll be hard to get the line value that would be introduced if he’s downgraded to out), because I still show plenty of line value on the Eagles without him in there. Correl Buckhalter has picked up good yards in relief of Westbrook (though Buckhalter didn’t play last week, and I’m not sure why. He’s not showing up on injury reports so I have to assume he’s probable this week), and the Eagles’ passing game can still take it to the Dolphins. McNabb may be getting a little bit of his game legs back, and the Dolphins have been pretty woeful at getting to the opposing QBs this year. The Dolphins will also be without Matt Roth, DE, for this game, and he’s been having a pretty solid year. Jevon Kearse will be out for the Eagles at DE, but he’s got far better help at his position available than the Dolphins do for Roth.
Final Score Prediction:
New England/-15.5/-12.5/Buffalo 6.8% value
Buffalo/46.5/43.5/Under 6.8% value
Key Match-Up #1: Tom Brady versus the photographers’ lens, because he probably spent more time during the bye week worrying about that then the Bills’ pass defense. Brady and
Key Match-Up #2: JP Losman versus the Patriots’ defense. Let me be the first (maybe) to say that missing Marshawn Lynch will not adversely affect the Bills that much this week. In the second half when you figure to be trailing by double-digits, you have to pass the ball more than you run if you want a shot at winning, plain and simple. M. Lynch has 196 rush attempts versus only 15 pass receptions, so he’s normally not much of a threat in the passing game. Any of the guys behind him could come in and catch the passes thrown to the RB with near equal success. The guys behind him may even be better pass-blockers (I don’t know, I’m just saying, he being a rookie and all). If the Bills were playing a team that they had a realistic chance of beating, Lynch’s absence would have much greater impact, as they’d be running him right up until the end of the game, normally.
Final Score Prediction:
Dallas/47/48/Over 1.7% value
Key Match-Up #1: The Redskins’ run defense versus the Cowboys’ run attack. The Redskins’ secondary is currently undermanned and will have a tough time stopping the Cowboys 2nd rated pass attack, even thought the Redskins’ pass defense has been pretty good this year up until now. Their only chance is to win some battles at the line of scrimmage on early running downs and hope for a few stalled drives.
Key Match-Up #2: The Redskins’ run offense versus the Cowboys’ run attack. The Redskins’ most favorable match-up on offense will be with the run. They’ll also want to grind the clock this game, limiting the number of possessions that the Cowboys’ potent offense will have. Not only that, but the Redskins are decimated at WR right now. Sure, they’ve recently upgraded Santana Moss to probable, but he wore a boot on Friday and was most likely upgraded because the Redskins literally do not even have enough healthy wide receivers to line up for 3-receiver formations if he’s not active, lol. Their other starting receiver, Randle El, is also playing through lingering injuries. Chris Cooley, say hello to Mr. Football.
Final Score Prediction:
New Orleans/+1/+4.5/Houston 7.3% value
Houston/48/48/No value
Key Match-Up: Either team’s run defense vs. the opponent’s run offense. First, let’s just get this out of the way – both teams are capable of passing lights out in this game. Both pass defenses are going to suck. Both teams have dealt with injuries and poor yards per carry in the backfield this year. The Saints’ run defense had been pretty solid until they got hit with injuries on their defensive line a couple of weeks ago. The Rams, with the returning Stephen Jackson, were able to gain 133 yards at 3.91 per carry last week versus the Saints, the first time the Saints had allowed more than 100 rush yards since their opening week drubbing at the hands of the Colts. These injuries may give the Texans’ poor run offense just enough breathing room to not have to be completely reliant on Matt Schaubs’ return at QB. Unfortunately for the Texans’ they’ll be without Ahman Green at RB again this week, as Mr. “Old and Injury Prone” has missed almost half of this season because of injuries. Ron Dayne, his back up, has been good for 3.5 yards and a cloud of Cheetoh dust, but he’ll need to do better than that or the Saints will have the decided edge in the running game. But honestly, who’s to say how much either team will run in this game? When it comes down to it, you’d rather have Ron Dayne in there on 3rd and 1 then Reggie Bush. The Texans have a higher yards per pass attempt than the Saints, and will be getting their #1 receiver Andre Johnson back this year, and will face the worst secondary in the league. The Saints’ chances for competing in this game hinge upon their passing game enjoying the success it’s had lately, and there’s no reason they shouldn’t versus an also awful Texan pass defense. Still, the edge goes to the home team.
Final Score Prediction:
Carolina/+9.5/+13/Green Bay 9.4% value
Green Bay/37.5/40.5/Over 8.2% value
Key Match-Up #1: The Panthers’ run game versus the Packers’ run defense. If the Panthers are to have any success in sustaining drives and scoring points, it’ll be on the back of their running game. DeShaun Foster, RB, who was listed as “?” earlier in the week, has been upgraded to probable, and they’d better hope he’s near 100%, as he’s been their main workhorse. If not, DeAngelo Williams will get more carries, and that’s not such a bad thing as he’s averaged 5 yards per carry versus Foster’s 3.82. The Panthers can’t rely on their Testaverede-Carr QB “Combo O’ Futility” to carry the day for them on the road at Lambeau. Testaverde will start, and that’s probably a good thing, as Carr has probably only played a few cold-weather games in his life, lol, growing up in California, playing his collegiate ball at Fresno State, and the bulk of his NFL career in Houston. David, those sacks hurt twice as much in the cold, buddy!
Key Match-Up #2: The Panthers’ pass defense versus Brett Favre and his cadre of quality receivers. The Panthers have been fair at defending the pass this year, just slightly worse than league average. Unfortuantely for them, they’ll be facing a Packer passing game that is peaking after getting Koren Robinson back from suspension, and Ruvell Martin back from injury. Add that to Greg Jennings, who missed the first couple of games with injury, the ever-dependable Donald Driver, and the developing rookie James Jones, and you’ve got one hell of a receiving corps. The Panther pass rush is just not getting to the QB like they used to, so the Panthers are really in a bind. If they blitz (which they don’t seem to do, as their linebackers have a combined 2 sacks, and their secondary none) to help out in the pass rush, Favre is very good at the quick-hitting routes and has receivers that can really hurt you with the yards after the catch. They’ll probably just drop back, hoping to clog the field with enough bodies to catch an errant or tipped pass. This “on your heels” defense, when combined with the hard-rushing edge defenders, will allow the Packers to run the ball on the delayed handoffs for some big gainers like they did against
Final Score Prediction:
Detroit/48.5/46.5/Under 4.1% value
Key Match-Up #1: Giants’ pass rush versus Lions’ pass blocking. The Giants have been the most sack-happy team in the league since altering their scheme back in week 3. They’ll be licking their lips when thinking of
Key Match-Up #2: Eli Manning versus the Lions’ pass defense. The Giants have had more success running the ball this year than they’ve had passing. Derrick Ward will be out again injured, so Brandon Jacobs will be smashed into the Lions’ stout defensive line. The Lions have been quite good at defending the run this year, so it’ll be up to Eli to make the big throws when needed to to move the chains. If he struggles, the Lions will get enough possessions and short field to get the victory in this game.
Final Score Prediction:
San Francisco/39/36/Under 7.4% value
Key Match-Ups: Run offenses versus run defenses. The team that wins this game will have to have success in the run game. The 49ers’ secondary is good enough to slow down the Rams’ pass attack that struggles when not playing week pass defenses in a dome, a la last week. The Rams’ running game had its’ second best performance of the year with Stephen Jackson back in the backfield last week, so while they bring a really poor ypc average into this game, it’s got nowhere to go but up. The Rams’ run defense is slightly worse than league average, and the 49ers will be even more reliant on their run game than the Rams. Frank Gore finally managed to finish a game last week, but it’s getting hard to predict how healthy he is and how well he’ll perform on the field. Dilfer is no worse than a less than 100% Alex Smith, so he should some success versus a poor Rams’ secondary. The Rams are starting to be more aggressive in attacking the QB, which could pay dividends versus the nearly geriatric Dilfer if he doesn’t unload the ball quickly.
All in all, I think people are over-valuing the Rams’ offensive performance last week, and devaluing the 49ers defensive performance all year, but with two teams playing as generally bad these two, it’s hard to make a bet with any confidence on either side.
Final Score Prediction: Saint Louis 17 – San Francisco 17 (no one scores in OT, lol)
Chicago/+5.5/+4.5/Chicago 2.9% value
Seattle/37.5/39.5/Over 4.9% value
Key Match-Up #1: Rex Grossman versus the
Key Match-Up #2: The Seahawks’ weakness at running the ball will average out with the Bears weakness at defending the run, so I see the 2nd key match-up being Matt Hasselbeck versus the Bears’ pass defense. Anyone that watched the MNF game last week knows the Matt Hasselbeck is a “Top 5 Quarterback.” Sure, he’s pretty good. He may even get Deion Branch back this week. It’s up to the Bears somewhat better than average pass defense to limit Hasselbecks’ success in this game. If they don’t, Sexy Rexy will not have enough opportunities to work his “1/4 boom, 3/4 bust” style of offensive magic.
Final Score Prediction:
Tennessee/+2/+3.5/Denver 4.5% value
Key Match-Up #1: The Titans’ run offense versus the Broncos’ run defense. Much maligning has been heaped upon the
Key Match-Up #2: Vince Young versus the Broncos’ pass defense. You can call Vince Young a winner, that’s fine, just don’t call him a passer. He’s got a QB rating of 62.2. versus Jay Cutlers’ 84.8 He’ll get plenty of opportunities to prove that he can beat single coverage in this game, and it’s completely on his shoulders to make the Broncos pay for cheating versus the run. I personally don’t think he’ll be able to carry the day and the Broncos will get the home win.
Final Score Prediction:
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