Week #9: My Lines
Home Team/Actual Pointspread/My Pointspread/Value
Away Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value
JETS/+3.5/+8.5/REDSKINS 14.7% VALUE
REDSKINS/35.5/35.5/NO VALUE
The Jets are starting the inexperienced QB Kellen Clemens now that their season is a bust. He hasn’t played much in his 2 years in the league, and hasn’t looked good when he has. Lavernues Coles, WR, is questionable after sustaining a concussion last week. It doesn’t look good for the Jets’ offense this week versus a normally pretty-good Redskin defense looking to rebound from the pummeling they took from the Patriots last week. Carlos Rogers, CB for
The Redskins continue to battle injuries on the offensive line, but should be just healthy enough to keep a weak Jets’ pass rush from getting to Jason Campbell like the Patriots did. With time,
The Redskins’ rushing game has really tailed off after the first two games of the season, but should find enough success versus a mediocre Jets’ defense to present some favorable passing situations for the Redskins. The Jets’ have the 6th worst rush attack in the league, and will be going up against the 6th best rush defense, so K. Clemens is really going to be put into some long 2nd and 3rd downs which will allow the Redskins’ defense to tee off on him, as the Redskins are better than the league average at sacking opposing QBs, while the Jets’ give up more than the league average.
Final Score Prediction: Jets 14 – Redskins 23
CHIEFS/-2.5/-3/CHIEFS 1.1% VALUE
PACKERS/37/36/UNDER 2.7% VALUE
The Packers made quick work of winning the game in OT last Monday night, and it’s a good thing, because if any team is going to need their rest, it’s them. While the Packers (Brett Favre and Donald Driver aside) are one of the youngest teams in the NFL, they’re facing the trifecta of tiredness related factors in their upcoming game. First, the Chiefs are coming off a bye, one bonus point for them. Secondly, the Packers are traveling for their second consecutive road game, another bonus point for the Chiefs. Thirdly, the Packers played on Monday night so they’ll be coming into this game on a short week. 3rd bonus point for the Chiefs. I mean, really, did the Packers spend Monday night in Denver, hop on a bus and drive due east to Kansas City (one of the most boring stretches of land you’ll ever drive) to get ready for this week’s early game? If not, they may as well have. I’m not a great believer in letdowns for teams that are playing well, but this one has all the earmarks.
The Chiefs have the potential to be the healthiest they’ve ever been coming out of this bye. Eddie Kennison is probable at WR, and Kyle Turley may be back on the offensive line. That’s good news for the Chiefs, as they’ll need all of their weapons versus a good Packer defense. The Chiefs’ defense is better than average across the board, so the Packers should go back to getting less than a hundred yards on the ground this week, especially now that they’ll be without last week’s starter at RB, Deshawn Wynn, for the rest of the season. The edge in the passing game goes to the Packers, as their air attack has been much more productive than the Chiefs, and should have more success than Huard and Co. in spite of the Chiefs sporting the better pass defense of the two teams. All in all, now too close to call.
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 20 – Packers 16
BUCS/-3.5/-4.5/BUCS 2.0% VALUE
CARDS/38/42/OVER 10.5% VALUE
As predicted when the opening total of 36 came out, the books brought a water balloon to a tack factory with this one – the line has been pounded up to 38 and is still rising. The Bucs have numerous “questionable” players on both sides of the ball, so who goes and who doesn’t may determine who covers the spread in this one. The Cardinals are better at defending the pass than the run, but the Bucs should still have success as Garcia has been having a stellar year – the Bucs have the 6th best passing game by my numbers. The Bucs pass defense has been very good, 2nd best in the league, so they should prevent Kurt Warner and his talented group of receivers from moving the ball as well as they’re used to. The Bucs are actually a little worse than league average at defending the run, but match up well versus a Cardinal running game that produces almost 1/3rd of a yard less than the league average per run. Both teams should try to attack with balanced offensive play-calling, as the match ups dictate. The Cardinals are coming off of a bye, but are in the tough position of playing an early game on the east coast. This one is too close to take a position on, but there’s still value in the Over.
Final Score Prediction: Bucs 23 – Cards 20
TITANS/-4/-8/TITANS 11% VALUE
PANTHERS/35.5/35.5/NO VALUE
Okay, so Vince Young is not as good of a passer as Kerry Collins. But don’t go overboard thinking that the Titans’ pass attack is anemic with Vince Young at the helm. Er, actually, go ahead and think that, they are anemic with Vince Young at the helm. Last week with VY the Titans only threw 14 passes the entire game, as the injured defensive line of the Raiders was rightfully the best part of the defense to attack – they’re last in the league in yards per rush allowed, for cry-eye, while their pass defense is 8th best in the league. So yeah, I wouldn’t put too much stock in VY’s performance last week, especially considering his quad was still sore. I’m hoping it will be better this week, as my money is already down on the Titans. Good news for VY this week, he’s facing a sub-par Panther secondary, and he gets Brandon Jones back, a talented young receiver. But then again, the only 2 games in which the Titans had more than 200 yards passing were the ones in which Kerry Collins played. The only game this season in which VY has thrown for better than the league average per pass was versus the Saints, who sport one of the worst pass defenses around. The Titans are a run-first team, but VY will have to have some success in the air this week for the Titans to cover.
David “Less Reliable than a Chrysler K” Carr starts at QB for Carolina by default, and he’s going to have to get something going through the air, as the Titans have the 3rd best rush defense in the league. Of course, the Panthers have been pretty good running the ball this year, but have only faced two better than average rush defenses; the Saints’ and the Colts’, and against them they only averaged 3.14 and 3.27 yards per carry, respectively, so it looks to be a long day (or short one, when it comes to time of possession) for the Panther offense in Nashville.
Final Score Prediction: Titans 21 – Panthers 14
FALCONS/49ERS/-3.5/-6/FALCONS 7.2% VALUE
49ERS/37/34.5/UNDER 5.5% VALUE
On stats alone, my total comes to 37.5 in this game. I have a point-value I assign to each team based on their offensive talent, mostly related to the QB talent , and that’s what has lowered this number to 34.5 (Does anyone dispute the lack of talent at QB that these two teams will line up behind center in Atlanta this Sunday?) I hate playing Unders in domes, but this is awfully close to playable. Bad news for the 49ers as Frank Gore reinjured his bum ankle last week, but wait, I just saw on the RxOdds update that he’s probable for this week. Still, it seems that his ankle will bother him for the rest of the season. Alex Smith wasn’t horrible last week, but considering he was facing the worst pass defense in the league, he doesn’t look to have much upside coming back from his shoulder injury either. The Falcons at least bring 2 healthy starting running backs, and a healthy, if only serviceable QB in Joey Harrington to compete in this crap-fiesta of a game, which should ensure them a 3 point home victory at worst
Final Score Prediction: Falcons 20 – 49ers 14
SAINTS/-3.5/-5/SAINTS 4.0% VALUE
JAGUARS/40/40.5/OVER 0.7% VALUE
The Saints’ passing game appears to be back on track after getting off to a rough start (versus some good pass defenses, actually), and now square off at home versus the Jaguars. Drew Brees will go to the air early and often because it will be matching the strength of their offense versus the weaker half of the Jaguar defense. You might as well throw an incomplete pass on 1st down than run Reggie Bush and lose 2. Luckily for the Saints’ pathetic pass defense, they’ll be facing Quentin Gray in his 2nd NFL start. If they can avoid the major mistakes, it’ll be hard for Mr. Gray to consistently beat them through the air. The Jaguars will of course try to dominate with their 4th ranked running game. Unfortunately for them, that’s the strength of the Saints’ defense. As things stand, the Saints have the best matchups possible in this game, and should continue their improved play with a home victory.
Final Score Prediction: Saints 23 – Jaguars 17
LIONS/-3/-4.5/LIONS 3.5% VALUE
BRONCOS/46/50/OVER 9.1% VALUE
Intriguing match up pitting the ascending Lions versus the descending Broncos. Realistically, the Lions are probably not as good as one might think, and the Broncos not as bad. Still, the Lions are a team getting healthier, while the Broncos have been dealing with various injuries as of late. The Lions offense is at near full strength after some early season injuries, while the Broncos still have nagging injuries in their secondary, which doesn’t help when paired with a piss-poor run defense. The Lions, a pass-happy team, are actually right near the league average when it comes to yards per carry. Defensively, they’ve been pretty good against the run, near ¼ of yard better than league average. Versus the pass, the Lions haven’t been quite so good, so I’d expect Cutler to have a pretty big day, as the Broncos have the 9th best pass attack. Neither team should blow each other out, so I’d expect both offenses to be running at full strength until the final possession of the game, which will help the Over, the best play available in this game.
Final Score Prediction: Lions 27 – Broncos 23
BILLS/+1/-1/BILLS 4.4% VALUE
BENGALS/43/43/NO VALUE
The Bills should be getting some injured defenders back on the field this week – Lord knows they need them. JP Losman gets his job back at QB, while Carson Palmer continues to be “Best Quarterback on a Bad Team.” Rudi Johnson returns at RB for the Bengals, but Kenny Watson is questionable. Watson has played better than Rudi, so it’s a wash if Watson ends up sitting this one out. The Bengals have averaged 6.97 yards per pass, the Bills 5.4. That’s a pretty large advantage when you consider that success in the passing game is the most important statistic there is when it comes to winning football games. Both teams have had poor pass defenses, with the Bengals’ being worse by more than 1/3 of a yard. Both teams are below league average at running the ball, and worse than league average at defending it, with the Bengals being a little bit worse than the Bills. The Bengals, in spite of playing behind so often, have only allowed 1.26 sacks per game, while the Bills have allowed 2.34. The Bengals have averaged getting 1.66 sacks per game, the Bills only 1.01 (these are adjusted numbers). With this information, it looks as if Carson Palmer will have enough time in the pocket to pick apart the Bills defense. I played the Bengals when they were +2 earlier in the week, and I’ll probably let that play ride because of the advantage they have in the passing game.
Final Score Prediction: Bills 21 – Bengals 21 (Bengals get a FG and the win in OT, lol, in contradiction to my line.)
VIKINGS/+7/+4/VIKINGS 7.9% VALUE
CHARGERS/41.5/42.5/OVER 2.7% VALUE
Going by my spreadsheets calculations, the Vikings will score 21 points in this game. I’m not sure I believe it, lol. I mean, the only way the Vikings move the ball consistently is with the run, and that’s the strength of the Charger defense. The Vikings are pretty much tied with the Titans for the second worst passing game in the league. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor will be facing a lot of 7 and 8 men in the box. On the plus side, if they can break through that, they’ll have a lot of open room to run in, lol. The Vikings have only averaged 18.7 points per game this year. The statistics for the Vikings are skewed by the one huge day Adrian Peterson had versus the Bears is what it comes down to, I believe.
Conversely, how will LT fare in his match up versus the ferocious Viking run defense? Maybe last week’s game will give us a clue, as Brian Westbrook is a running back comparable in style to LT. Last week, BW ran the ball 21 times for 46 yards. That stinks. He and Buckhalter, however, each caught 4 passes out of the backfield for 74 yards. LT has 26 receptions this year that account for more than 1/4th of his total yards, so it looks like the Chargers will probably have to throw the ball to LT a higher proportion of the time than they’re used to just to get him away from the Vikings’ stout defensive line. Phillip Rivers is quietly having a very good yard leading the 6th best pass attack by my rescored calculations. As Donovan McNabb showed last week, you can go into
Final Score Prediction: Vikings 19 – Chargers 23 (This is my spreadsheet line, I would probably adjust it to favor the Chargers by more as the Vikings stats are skewed by the huge day they had versus the Bears. Kind of like how
BROWNS/-1/-3/BROWNS 4.3% VALUE
SEAHAWKS/46.5/48/OVER 3.6% VALUE
It’s looking less likely that Deion Branch will be returning at WR for the Seahawks this week, but at least they’ll be getting a lesser receiver, DJ Hackett, back in the lineup. DJ was injured in the first game of the year, and is now just returning. Matt Hasselbeck will be playing in spite of continuing to be bothered by a pulled oblique muscle. That’s somewhere on your back, right? Lol Hopefully he won’t be too bothered, because I’m already on the Over 46.5 for a half unit, as the Over machine known as the Browns just happen to be involved in this game. Run it at them, throw it at them, either way you’re going to get good yards versus the Brownies. They have a balanced defense – they’re equally bad at stopping the run and the pass. Fortunately, though, their air attack with big-shoed and big-armed Derek Anderson chucking the ball around to Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow has gained even more yards per pass than their defense has allowed. While their running game can’t boast doing the same when compared to their poor run defense, they’re not far behind and are still averaging 4.57 yards per carry, a full half yard better than the league average. Plus, Jamal Lewis looks to be at full strength for the first time in a month coming into this game, and he’s averaged 4.71 ypc this year. The Seahawks’ rush defense is right near the league average, so the Browns should be able to establish a good run game. That will help, because the Seahawks have a better than average pass defense, though this will be the most potent aerial attack the Seahawks have faced this year, as only the Patriots, Colts and Cowboys have a higher average ypp than the Browns. So, the Browns will get theirs on offense.
Can the Seahawks keep pace? The running game featuring Shawn Alexander has been a disappointment this year, averaging a measly 3.53 ypc; but when matched up against the poor run defense of the Browns, the Seahawks should manage better than 4 yards a carry. The Seahawks have been better than the league average in the passing department, and should find even more success than normal versus the Browns’ pass defense. So, both teams should gitter’ done, according to myself and Larry the Cable Guy. It should also be a pretty close game with points down to the wire, that’s why I played the Over 46.5 even though I’m showing marginal value with my total of 48.
The Browns come into this game healthier, and have a small advantage in the passing and running match ups. The Seahawks have the advantage in the turnover department, as well as pressuring and sacking the quarterback. The Browns are more penalty prone, but better in the red zone match ups. I’ll be jiggered, this one comes down to home field advantage when it’s all said and done.
Final Score Prediction: Browns 26 – Seahawks 23
COLTS/+5/-3/COLTS 14.6% VALUE
PATRIOTS/56.5/58.5/OVER 3.8% VALUE
Well here it is, the big daddy of them all. The Patriots enter this game with the best passing offense of all time. No joke. Their speedy receivers will thrive in the windless, turfed environs of the RCA dome. Can the Colts’ defense slow them down? Somewhat, I think. The Colts rely on their front 4 of their 4-3 defense to pressure the quarterback. That D-line is responsible for 9 of the 12 sacks the Colts have recorded this year. They can probably afford to drop more LB’s into coverage than the Patriots can. The bad news for the Colts, though, is that their linebacking corps has been hit upside the head as of late. Literally. F. Keiaho is still recuperating from a concussion, and T. Hagler from a neck injury – they’re both game decisions right now, but you’ve got to figure that at least one of them will play because the play the same position. Rob Morris is already lost for the year on the other end of the LB line, but he’s not likely to be making the trip to
The Patriots have faced over 5% more passing plays by their opponents than the Colts, however. By my adjusted numbers, the Patriots have averaged around 3 sacks a game, and the Colts a bit less than two. Brady (or the backups they put in in the last 2 minutes of a game they’re up at least 21 points in) have been sacked at an adjusted rate of .87 times per game, while throwing the ball 51.3% of the time. The Patriots have thrown the ball 3.2% less of the time than the league average, so maybe that takes the edge off of the “running up the score” argument a bit. The Colts have averaged 1.74 sacks per game, and given up .5 while throwing the ball, well I’ll be darned, 51.3% percent of the time. It’ll be interesting to see if the Colts do indeed drop back more into coverage while the Patriots bring more heat in this game. These may be the best strategies versus virtually unstoppable offenses.
In the passing game, the edge goes to the Patriots, but the Colts will also manage to throw for well over the league average per pass. The Colts should have slightly better success running the ball. The Colts have a faced a tougher schedule, and that’s no small matter.
So I see it coming down to this, can the Colts home field advantage and tougher strength of schedule overcome the Patriots’ superior pass attack and healthier squad? Because Peyton Manning is the only QB in the league capable of exploiting the Patriots’ defense like the Patriots’ offense will exploit theirs, I have to go with the value on the defending champs, undefeated, playing at home. Things to worry about? Yup – the Patriots have covered every game. The Football Outsiders like the Pats to win by 10 (though they’re from
Final Score Prediction: Colts 31 – Patriots 28
RAIDERS/-3/-0.5/TEXANS 6.3% VALUE
TEXANS/41/42/OVER 3.0% VALUE
It just came over the wire that Andre Johnson, WR Houston, is OUT for this game. Considering he’s only played in one game plus change, the difference between questionable and out is very tiny in my system. When he’s probable, of course, that’ll boost the Texans’ line. Ahman Green, also just updated is probable. That’s a big boost for the Texans if he’s near full strength. The Raiders have the worst rush defense in the league, and they’ve just lost Tommie Kelly from the middle of their line, to boot. The Texans, who’ve been pretty miserable running the ball so far this year (partially due to various injuries) should pound the ball right at them and then work the play-action pass to great affect if Oakland over-compensates. Yes, Matt Schaub will be watching this one from the sidelines, but Sage Rosenfels has a nearly identical completion %, and actually a better touchdown to interception ratio.
The Texans’ run defense has not been scaring anyone much, but they’re still a full yard better per play than the Raiders. The Raiders do bring a decent running game, but hey, that’s why I have this capped at a close game, and am taking the value with the dog. The Texans have such a big advantage in the passing match ups (and that includes adding value to the Raiders for starting McCown) that the value I see in them seems fully justified.
EAGLES/+3/0/EAGLES 6.1% VALUE
COWBOYS/46.5/43.5/UNDER 6.9% VALUE
Maybe Andy Reid should ransack the shelves of the drug emporium he lives in to find some coke or uppers to give to his team before each half of this game! Nah, the Eagles will be pretty pumped as it is, being a big rivalry game and all. In the lastest injury news, it looks like Brian Dawkins will see some limited action this week for the Eagles, as well as Anthony Henry for the Cowboys. Me likey the Under! The Cowboys are coming off a bye, but have been pretty healthy, regardless. The Eagles come into this game getting a bonus for being healthier in this game they’ve generally been in the past. Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Cowboys should get the best of the passing and running match ups. Newly rich Romo should have a pretty good day. McNabb seems to be improving as the season progresses, so the Eagles are certainly capable of hanging with the Cowboys in a home game.
Final Score Prediction: Eagles 22 – Cowboys 22 (non-football numbers, but I have to put it out there or it deviates from my total too much.)
STEELERS/-9/-5/RAVENS 10.7% VALUE
RAVENS/36/37/OVER 3.1% VALUE
The Ravens should have Steve McNair and Jonathan Ogden back in the offensive starting lineup this week. That alone should be enough to cover the spread, lol. McNair’s veteran leadership and poise in the pocket/ability to avoid the sack will be a big boon versus the tough Steelers’ defense. Trevor Pryce should be back on the D-line, and McCalister may play at cornerback for the Ravens as well. Coming out of a bye week, which they sorely (pun intended) needed, the Ravens should be fresh enough to hang tough. They’ll need to keep it close through most of the game, though, as they’ll find it difficult to make up a deficit via the pass, as the Steelers have a healthy advantage in the passing and defending the pass departments. The Steelers have the weapons at wide receiver to beat a sometimes vulnerable Ravens’ secondary, so how many times Big Ben is able to connect on big plays downfield will probably determine whether the Over or Under hits. It looks to me that just enough plays will be made by both squads (though mostly the Steelers) to just send this one Over the low number of 36. I currently have an Under 37 booked, so I’m going to bet the Over 36 at some point and hope for the 36 or 37 to be right.
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