Week #9 Recap:
Jets 20 – Redskins 23 OT
It’s never a good feeling when a -3.5 bet becomes -10.5 a scant ten second into the game. Such was the case when the Jets ran the opening kickoff back for a TD versus the ‘Skins. The ‘Skins ground there way back, chewing up big yards on the ground throughout the game, and won in overtime, falling, alas, a half point shy of the game cover.
½ Unit each: Over 35 & Under 36/Ate some juice.
1 Unit: Redskins -3.5/Loser
1 Unit: 2nd half Redskins -3/Winner
½ Unit: 2nd half Over 17.5/Loser (by half a point. The hook on 17 is obviously a huge one, but because the Redskins were down 17-9 at half I knew they would probably go for a 2-point conversion on the next TD they scored, making the 17.5 as good as a 17. That did end up happening, and the Redskins converted the 2 point conversion, but there were only 3 field goals kicked besides that in the second half/OT , instead of the one touchdown and a field goal I needed to cover.)
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Chiefs 22 – Packers 33
4th quarter Fists of Flurry in this one. At halftime, the Packers were clearly dominating the Chiefs despite being down 7-6 on the scoreboard. I jumped on the Packers +0.5 for the 2nd half. At the end of the 3rd quarter, the score stood at 13-7 Packers, looking very good for my Packers 2nd half and game Under 38.5 bet. 18.5 points of head room on the total…swallowed up by a 35 point 4th Quarter? WTF… The good news was that the Packers won, as I had more on the 2nd half bet than the game total. The bad news (other than losing the Under 38.5)? I had a “3 Unanswered Scores – No” bet that was alive until Charles Woodson picked off a Huard pass and ran it back 60 yards or something with 1:10 left in the game. Sweet Hayseuss. The Chiefs need 70-80 yards in 1:10 + the touchdown for me to lose the 2nd half Packer bet. I like my chances. Even if they do manage the last minute win, at least my “No 3 Scores” bet is still alive and recoups 2/3rds of the 2nd half Packer loss. But like I said, you don’t expect a team to score the touchdown with 1:10 left and a long field to go. Up yours, Chuck Woodson. Everyone knows you’re just supposed to go to the ground and protect the ball when you get an interception near the end of the game. That pick wasn’t even on a quick throw to the outside where no one has a chance to catch him, lol, the ball was thrown deep and the Chiefs put up a shite effort in tackling him because the game was over at that point. Bit o’ bad luck with that pick 6.
Packers ML/Chiefs ML/Ate some juice.
3/4th Unit: Under 38.5/Loser
½ Unit +140: 3 Unanswered Scores – No/Loser
1 Unit: Packers +0.5 2nd half/Winner
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Bucs 17 – Cards 10
Ah, the Over of the week. Opened at 36, closed at 38.5/39. The Cardinals’ offense put up a disappointing 10 points in this contest. The Bucs, not much better with 17 off of 350 yards of total offense. The total yards per point math said there should’ve been 35.2 points in this game, still Under, damn. Still, it had a good chance in the 4th Quarter. The Cardinals just needed to score a touchdown to tie the game at 17-17, the magic score that turns 34 points into 37 if it goes to OT. Part of the value in betting Over 36 when the line first came out was for precisely this, being on the right side of 37 in a game with a 3.5 pointspread (smallish spread = greater chance of a 17-17 tie). But…no dice. The Cardinals had burned their timeouts and couldn’t challenge an interception the Bucs made that would’ve been overturned.
1 Unit: Bucs/Cards Over 36/Loser
13 point teaser: Bucs/Cards Over 25.5/Covered
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Titans 20 – Panthers 7
Remember the Titans have been playing pretty good defense this year? Remember the Panthers have issues at QB? Remember to bet the Titans in this one? 20-0 until the Panthers get a meaningless 4th quarter score.
1 Unit: Titans -4/Winner
(There was one second half bet that I’d intended to play but didn’t get down on during the halftime flurry, and that was the Under 16.5 in this one. My 2nd half O/U line was 9.5, so there was plenty of room between that and 16.5. 16.5 is always a number you wish was 17 when you’re looking to bet the Under, but I was prepared to bet 3/4th of a Unit, as my system will bet a maximum of 3/4th of a Unit on any Under that it likes with a total of less than 17. So I missed the winner here, as there were 14 points in the second half. Bites.)
Falcons 20 – 49ers 16
Hip, hip, Hooooo…ah, screw it. Just because this was the only game of the week in which I caught a big break with around 2 minutes left in the game is no cause for celebration. As you may know, the 49ers turned it over deep in their own territory late in the 4th, setting the Falcons up for a covering field goal while preserving the Under 37. The crap-fiesta went down as planned basically, as I’d predicted a 20 – 14 final score.
3/4th Unit: Falcons -3/Winner
½ Unit: Under 37/Winner
½ Unit: No score last 2 minutes of first half +160/Winner
Saints 41 – Jaguars 24
I was liking the Saints and Over during the week, but never pulled the trigger on a straight bet, as the value was borderline. Still, I got down on a little 1st half Saints and Over parlay because of their recent tendency to pile up points in the first half. It’s always nice when a bet goes right and you look like a friggin’ genius, lol. I also had unposted straight bets on the Saints 1st half and Over, so I picked up an off-the-records Unit in addition to the on-the-record parlay. The Jaguars didn’t even need to contribute a single point for the parlay to cash, but added a FG and 2 TDs on a kickoff return and 80 yard pass. At 17-17 I was getting a little worried, but the Saints came through with another solid drive and TD before the half. The 2nd half line came out at Saints -0.5, with an O/U of 20.5. My system generated an O/U line of 29, so I was all over the Over which cruised in comfortably with 24 points for the win.
1/3 Unit Parlay: Saints -2.5 & Over 20 1st half/Winner
1 Unit: 2nd half Over 20.5/Winner
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Lions 44 – Broncos 7
My line had the Lions favored at -4.5, so I was looking real hard at taking them -3 with a large glass of plus juice. Instead I opted for just the Over, as both teams figured to have good offensive days. Well, one team did, and fortunately the other team, the Broncos, were able to contribute some turnovers for scores and one garbage time TD to cash an Over that looked pretty lifeless at halftime.
3/4th Unit: Lions/Broncos Over 45.5/Winner
Bills 32 – Bengals 22
This turned out to be a kicking myself game. I got the Bengals +2 early in the week, but by the time the game was about to kickoff my line was Bills -1, so with the line then at Bengals -1, I was planning on taking the Bills +1 and just going for the small middle. I’d stated that that’s what I was going to do in my posts. So, I sat there hoping and waiting for +1.5, which briefly appeared, but was gone before I could get down it. I ended up betting the Bills +1 for a ½ Unit, but let my stupid brain override the small middling play and just go for the win with the Bengals +2. All was looking pretty good until the 4th quarter, where the Bills outscored the Bengals 17-0 to turn what was looking like a ½ Unit gain into what should’ve been a little hit of juice, but ended up being a ½ Unit loss on my record. Did you see that ball that Chad Johnson dropped in the 4th quarter? Right in his freaking hands.
½ Unit: Bengals +2/Loser
Vikings 34 – Chargers 17
Speaking of games in which I just didn’t trust my spreadsheet…and once gain paid the price. It just seemed so simple, I outlined in great detail how the Chargers could cruise to an easy victory in this game. I guess they didn’t get the memo, especially the underlined section about tackling Adrian Peterson. Without the fluke missed FG return for a touchdown before halftime, the Chargers lose this game 34-10. Ouch. It’s funny, 75-80% of the time when I go against my spreadsheet I lose. This year, when I’ve taken the big dogs my sheet recommends, those dogs have generally been run over like rabid strays hit by a Mack truck (Well, they’ve lost anyway, though some were competitive). I haven’t looked at the Chinese calendar this year, but I’m pretty sure it’s not the year of the big dog. Luckily the books hung an attractive halftime line of Vikings +3, so I could get off of the Chargers -7 play scott free, thankfully, as the Vikings outplayed the Chargers in the first half in spite of being down 14-7.
½ Unit: Vikings/Chargers Over 41/Winner
½ Unit: Vikings/Chargers Under 42.5/Loser
½ Unit: Chargers -7/Loser
½ Unit: Vikings +3 2nd half/Winner
½ Unit: Vikings/Chargers 2nd half Under 20/Loser
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Browns 33 – Seahawks 30 OT
If it looks like a shoot-out, smells like a shoot-out, tastes like a shoot-out, it’s probably a shoot-out. The Browns are an Over Machine team. I like the Over this week versus
½ Unit: Browns/Seahawks Over 47/Winner
13 point teaser: Over 34/Covered
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Colts 20 – Patriots 24
The Colts came into this game without the services of Marvin Harrison. Big concern – dropped the Over 56 play to a ½ Unit. His replacement, Gonzalez, breaks his hand. Even more concern. His replacement, Aaron Moorehead, drops a ball thrown right to his hands in the 4th quarter. This Aaron dude needs more hands and less head. More head means he probably over thought that ball right out of hands. Aaron Lesshands has only 4 catches on the year, but I’m pretty sure they counted them from a mid-week scrimmage just so that he wouldn’t have a goose egg on his stats so that opposing teams would spend 30 seconds of the week instead of zero game planning against the amazing Aaron Lesshands. 30 seconds spent on Aaron Lesshands means 30 seconds less on Reggie Wayne, but Reggie negated the edge he’d acquired by having the Patriots be forced to game plan for Aaron Lesshands by dropping a perfectly thrown ball that would’ve either scored right then or there or been a first down in the red zone. The referees, seeing the potential unstopability of Aaron Lesshands, realized that the Patriots’ secondary would rather maul another receiver and incur a pass-interference penalty than have Aaron Lesshands beat them in single to almost-zero coverage. Except the Patriots actually didn’t interfere on the big plays, but the referees knew that in the Patriots’ secondaries’ hearts of heart that they wanted to, so they flagged them anyway.
The Colts, being the “good guys” in this epic battle of good versus evil, were instantly overwhelmed with feelings of guilt for having been the beneficiaries of such poor calls, and decided to just kick field goals once they were inside the 10, just so they could get their karma back to even. They went overboard, though, and let the Patriots make up a 10-point deficit and win in the last 9 minutes of the game. Peyton will be a candidate for sainthood (even though he plays for the secular Colts and not for the collegiate Catholic school upstate) for his generous forward lateral to a waiting defender – a true act of martyrdom. The referees were so touched by his selfless and teamless act that they ruled the play a fumble instead of the obvious forward lateral that it clearly was. Lesson to be learned? Sign receivers with the last name of Moorehand, and never, ever forget that playing sports is always best done without a conscience and without showing mercy to the opponent – just ask the Patriots.
½ Unit: Colts +4.5/Winner
½ Unit: Colts ML/Loser
½ Unit: Colts Over 56/Loser (plus a little more juice after buying back from a full unit)
½ Unit: Colts/Patriots Over 27.5 2nd half/Loser
Raiders 17 – Texans 24
Texans up 17-0 at halftime, cruised in for the win. Rosenfels filled in adequately for Schaub, McCown struggled a bit in his first game back, and the Texans’ running game got healthy (though Ahman Green got unhealthy again) versus the horrible Raiders’ rush defense. It’s nice when they stick to the script.
½ Unit: Texans +3/Winner
To win ½ Unit: Texans ML/Winner
½ Unit: First score will be a FG or safety +120 (Texans go for it on 4th and one at the 5 instead of kicking the FG, and score a TD a play or two later)/Loser
13 point teaser: Texans +16/Covered
Eagles 17 – Cowboys 38 Steelers 38 – Ravens 7
Here we have our Sunday and Monday nighters. I’m going to lump these bitches together after the lumps these two games bitch-slapped me with. The Fist of the NFL Gods decided it’d found a good home for its’ hand, so I’ve been typing this whole #!&$@ recap standing up. Eagles’ first possession, QB fumble leads to
3/4th Unit: Eagles/Cowboys Under 47/Loser
1/3 Unit: Eagles ML/Loser
½ Unit: Eagles/Cowboys Under 22.5 2nd half/Loser
½ Unit: Ravens +9.5/Loser
½ Unit: Steelers/Ravens Under 17.5 1st half/Loser
1 Unit: Steelers/Ravens Under 37/Loser
1 Unit: Steelers/Ravens Over 36/Winner
1 Unit: Steelers Pick 2nd half/Winner
1 Unit: Steelers/Ravens Under 17 2nd half (-125)/Winner
13 point teaser: Ravens +22.5/Loser, after the first legs were in. Hedging is for chicken shits, lol.
Week #9 Unit Recap: Game Sides: -0.9/Game Totals: -1.6/Teasers: -1.2
Halves: +2.9/Props n’ Parlays: +0.7
Week #9: Zero, zip nada – came out dead even (when rounded off in the computer to one tenth of a Unit).
A pretty blah week on the totals, as the 35 4th quarter points in
Year to Date: Sides: +6.8/Totals: +2.1/Teasers: +3.5/Halves: -0.6/Q’s: +0.5/P&P: -0.5
YTD: +11.7 Units, +5.93% ROI
The past 3 weeks have been stagnant, down a little over one Unit for that stretch. It all started honestly, with the trip to
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