Week #12 Recap

Week #12 Recap

Final Score Prediction:__Green Bay 27 -- Detroit 24
Actual Final Score:______Green Bay 37 -- Detroit 26

The Lions had too many dropped balls, something that didn't plague the Packers as
Brett Favre reeled off 20 straight completions. Still, the Lions had a shot at
the back door cover but came up empty. Detroits' ability to run the ball in
this game could spell trouble for the Packers on Thursday versus Dallas.

1/2 Unit: Packers Pick 2nd half/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__New York Jets 13 -- Dallas 35
Actual Final Score:______New York Jets 3 -- Dallas 35

The Dallas defense predictably made it tough on Kellen Clemens in the first road
start of his career. I anticipated one defensive score by the Cowboys and it
came in late in the first half which had Dallas covering the spread by halftime.
I saw no reason why the Jets would start to be able to move the ball in the
2nd half, so I piled on for some more.

1 Unit: Cowboys -13.5/Winner
1 Unit: Under 21.5 2nd half/Winner
3/4 Unit: Cowboys -7 2nd half/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Indianapolis 26 -- Atlanta 16
Actual Final Score:______Indianapolis 31 -- Atlanta 13

The Colts' kindly spotted the home team a 10 point lead and then proceeded to
crush them the rest of the way. Anthony Gonzalez had a good game at WR filling
in for Marvin Harrison, showing no ill-effects from the broken finger he sustained
a couple of weeks ago. The Falcons also had a chance for the back door cover
but came up empty. The small "for fun" 2nd half parlay would'nt have lost if the
Falcons had managed to put even a meager field goal on the board in the 2nd half.

1/6 Unit: Falcons +7, Under 21 2nd half parlay/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Denver 21 -- Chicago 20
Actual Final Score:______Denver 34 -- Chicago 37

The Bears' "Special Teams Spectacular" sunk the otherwise good bets on the Broncos
in this game, lol. Hester has burned me before, and he burned me again. He's
hard to handicap because you never know if teams are going to kick to him or not.
One thing you can count on though -- the Bears will usually have good field position
after receiving most kicks because of his presence on the field. This game still
looked in the bag with a 14 point lead deep into the 4th quarter, but alas,
the Bears converted on a 4th and goal to get the late tie, and went on to the OT
victory. The Bears getting the last 3 scores of the game killed the "No 3 Unanswered
Scores" bet as well. An unbearably bad bad beat, lol.

1/2 Unit: Broncos +2.5/Loser
1/2 Unit: Broncos Pick 2nd half/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Tennessee 20 -- Cincinatti 24
Actual Final Score:______Tennessee 6 -- Cincinatti 35

The Titans' 2nd consecutive performance of their "Road No-Show" went as planned as
Carson Palmer passed over them like marshmallow-topped yams at the Thanksgiving
table. The Titans, playing from behind, had to abandon the running game with
the predictable result of gaining some passing yards while failing to convert them
into points.

1 Unit: Bengals +2/Winner
1/2 Unit: Titans' Team Total Under 24/Winner


Final Score Prediction:__Buffalo 14 -- Jacksonville 24
Actual Final Score:______Buffalo 14 -- Jacksonville 36

As predicted, the Jaguars were able to physically wear down the Bills' defense in
the second half which led to a couple of easy late touchdown runs. The second half
bets were looking dicey until those two late scores sealed the deal. I love the
games that follow the script.

1/2 Unit: Jaguars -7.5/Winner
1 Unit: Over 35.5/Winner
1 Unit: Jaguars -3 2nd half/Winner
1/3 Unit: Jaguars -5.5/Over 17.5 1st half parlay/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Oakland 12 -- Kansas City 21
Actual Final Score:______Oakland 20 -- Kansas City 17

Things were pretty much on pace to cash until the KC defense gave up a late drive
to the Raiders for the go ahead score and win. "Boneheaded Coach of the Week" award
number 1 goes to Herm Edwards for wasting two timeouts on a spot that clearly
wasn't going to be changed, and for the generally predictable/defeatable play
calling through out the game that led to numerous failed 3rd down tries. For the
love of God, when you're in the "too far to kick, too close to punt, might as well
go for it on 4th and short" territory, how's about a play-action on 3rd and 1 that
could lead to a big play and THEN run it on 4th and 1, instead of running on 3rd
and 1 (predictable) and losing yards? Way to get out-coached by a rookie, Herm.
Everyone was to blame for the loss except Kolby Smith, RB. Croyle missed some
easy throws, as did his receivers, and the defense did an overall poor job as well
in a game they could've dominated.

1/2 Unit: CHiefs -3 1st half/Winner
1 Unit: Chiefs -3.5/Loser
1/2 Unit: Chiefs -1 2nd half/Loser
1/2 Unit: Raiders' Team Total Under 15/Loser
1/3 Unit: No Score last 2 minutes of 1st half/Winner


Final Score Prediction:__Houston 27 -- Cleveland 28
Actual Final Score:______Houston 17 -- Cleveland 27

Houston had the early 7-0 lead in this game but then suffered from numerous stalled
drives in Cleveland territory for the remainder of the game, some of them
because of turnovers. I don't know, maybe the fact that Schaub played his college
ball at Virginia and has only played with Atlanta and Houston in the pros made
his game suffer in the 40 degree Cleveland temperature. He doesn't even have
moderately-cold game weather experience, lol. The Browns were able to slow down
the game with Jamal Lewis running successfully in the second half to protect
their lead, which made the Over come up a touchdown short as well.

1/2 Unit: Texans +4/Loser
1/2 Unit: Texans ML/Loser
1/2 Unit: Over 51/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Seattle 24 -- Saint Louis 20
Actual Final Score:______Seattle 24 -- Saint Louis 19

It took Marc Bulger leaving the game and a total Rams' goalline screw up
at the end of the game to preserve the Seattle come from behind victory. I'd
pretty much written this one off at halftime, so it's nice to get the
occasional resurrected winner.

Seattle -3/Winner


Final Score Prediction:__Minnesota 21 -- NY Giants 20
Actual Final Score:______Minnesota 41 -- NY Giants 17

The underdog play of the week came through in stunning fashion as the Vikings
returned 3 Manning interceptions for touchdowns. The Giants, missing their top two
running backs, had very little success in the running game. Forced to the air,
the Vikings' took advantage of Plaxico's continual lack of practice by picking
off balls thrown to his area where he and Eli were not on the same page. The
21 instant turnover points came in handy, as the Giants actually did a good job
of limiting Chester Taylor and the Vikings' running yard to well below 100. T.
Jackson completed 10 of 12, with the bulk of the yards coming on the first play
of the game -- the 70-80 yard TD strike to Rice. I predicted Eli wouldn't be able
to lead his team to victory without a running game, and the proof is in the
final score pudding.

1 Unit: Vikings +7.5/Winner
1/4 Unit: Vikings ML/Winner
1/4 Unit: Vikings +4, Under 20 1st half parlay/Loser
1/2 Unit: Vikings' Team Total Over 17/Winner
1/2 Unit: Giants' Team Total Under 24/Winner
1/3 Unit: No 3 Unanswered Scores/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__New Orleans 20 -- Carolina 23
Actual Final Score:______New Orleans 30 -- Carolina 6

This one was doomed as soon as Vinny Testaverde woke up with a sore back and
was scratched as available in this game. I decided to let the then slim value ride
and indeed it rode me right into the ground. Carr got off to a horrible start,
and the Panthers' ground game never got going either. Even the Saints' secondary
was able to make enough plays to keep the Panthers from scoring in the second
half when they knew the pass was coming. The Over still had a good chance, needing
only 5 points in the 4th quarter for the win, but of course neither team scored
a single point in the 4th.

1 Unit: Panthers +3/Loser
1/2 Unit: Over 41/Loser
1/3 Unit: No 3 Unanswered Scores/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Washington 17 -- Tampa Bay 24
Actual Final Score:______Washington 13 -- Tampa Bay 19

Jeff Garcia left very early in this game with an injury, and all 19 points the
Bucs scored in the first half came on drives that started on the 50 or in
Washington territory. My second half O/U line was 13, so I forced to take the
Under 17.5 second half play and hope for 15 to 17 second half points for the
middle with the game O/U plays. The Bucs did nothing with Gradkowski at QB in
the 3rd quarter as the Redskins crept back into the game. Garcia came back
into the game in the 4th quarter for a couple of 3 and outs as the Bucs were
not doing much besides trying to protect their 6 point lead. At 19-13, my $$$
was going to come out near the same whether the Redskins got the late TD and
the 19-20 victory or not, but I was hoping for them to fail to help my ATS
record with the Bucs -3, plus there was always a chance the Bucs could come
back and win after the Redskins scored anyway, which would make me a loser for
the game. None of this interests you I'm sure, end of story, lol.

1 Unit: Bucs -3/Winner
1/2 Unit: Over 36.5/Loser
1/2 Unit: Over 37/Loser
1 Unit: Under 17.5 2nd half/Winner
1/4 Unit: Bucs -2.5/Over 18.5 1st half parlay/Winner


Final Score Prediction:__San Francisco 14 -- Arizona 23
Actual Final Score:______San Francisco 37 -- ARizone 31

Two weeks ago the Cardinals won on the road forcing turnovers versus the Bengals
in spite of being seriously outgained in yardage and yards per play. The 49ers
returned the karmic favor by beating the Cardinals in the same fashion. The
Cardinals outgained the 49ers 552 to 374 yards, while averaging a whopping 7.17
yards per play (a season best) versus 5.58. It was the 2 interceptions and 2
fumbles lost that did them in, as the 49ers committed no turnovers in the game.
Kurt Warner, in what has become expected fashion, was stripped in the endzone
in OT and the 49ers fell on the ball for the win. The Cardinals were really hurt
by not having defenders Bertrand Berry (IR), Adrian Wilson and Aaron Francisco for
this game, as the 49ers were able to get their season high in both passing AND
rushing yards in this game. The Cardinals have given up big yards in the 2 games
they've been without Berry and Wilson.

This game started with some good luck -- the 49ers scoring the tying TD with 34 seconds
left in the 1st quarter to win the first quarter bet, but ended with bad luck
when Frank Gore scored on a 35 yard touchdown run with 1:25 left in the game. That
touchdown made it 21 points scored in the second half, pushing my second half
Under 21 bet which went on to lose when the Cardinals got the inevitable field goal
to tie the game with a couple of seconds left on the clock.

1/2 Unit: 49ers +3 1st quarter/Winner
1 Unit: Under 21 2nd half/Loser
1/2 Unit: Under 38/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Baltimore 12 -- San Diego 26
Actual Final Score:______Baltimore 14 -- San Diego 32

Followed the script, with the added bonus of some luck in the form of only 3
4th quarter points to bring home the second half Under 19.5. I was worried when
the Chargers had it 1st and 10 at the Baltiore 30 midway through the 4th, but
after two penalties they were back at the 50 and just ran the ball all 3
downs to eat the clock. Knowing that the Chargers tend to be very conservative
with a lead played a small role in making the second half Under bet.

Phillip Rivers had a pretty good game after struggling in the last couple -- something
opposing QBs have been able to do against the Ravens' secondary lately.

1/2 Unit: Chargers -8.5/Winner
1/2 Unit: Under 38.5/Loser
1 Unit: Under 19.5 2nd half/Winner
1/3 Unit: No Score Last 2 Minutes of 1st half/Loser
1/2 Unit: Ravens' Team Total Under 14.5/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Philadelphia 17 -- New England 34
Actual Final Score:______Philadelphia 28 -- New England 31

Not many seemed to have faith in the Eagles this last week. The Books set an
increasingly higher/ridiculous line and were still able to snare a craters load
worth of Patriot money in this contest. The Eagles were simply too good of a
team to face a point spread this large. The Eagles coming up a little bit short
at the end of the game was still disappointing as I had a 1/6 Unit unposted ML
play on them that would've paid off very nicely, lol. Still, I'm glad to have
had a good Sunday Night game for once this season. I'd said that I'd prefer to
have AJ Feeley play this game, and boy did that hold true. No way McNabb
would've had the same amount of success in this game. He needs to sit for the
rest of the year and see how his leg is next year. And can you believe that the
Patriots actually failed to convert some 3rd and 4th downs? Crazy, eh?
Not really, it was bound to happen sooner rather than later, but it was still
cause for celebration every time it happened, lol.

1 Unit: Eagles +22/Winner
1/2 Unit: Under 52/Loser
1/2 Unit: Eagles +14.5 2nd half (-125)/Winner
1/2 Unit: Eagles' Team Total Over 13.5/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Miami 10 -- Pittsburgh 27
Actual Final Score:______Miami 0 --- Pittsburgh 3

A bittersweet end to week 12, as I made money in this game but left more on
the table. I had to leave the house a couple of hours prior to kickoff and
didn't know if I'd be back before the game started. I'd made the Under 43 bet
early in the week, and watched the number drop steadily throughout the week.
The last forecast I saw before I left said the rain would be abating with
minimal wind during the game. This put my final O/U line for the game at 40,
so I decided to go for the middle with the Over 38 then available. I hadn't
seen any video of the field, and it ended up costing me. I had no idea that
Heinz Field was going to be in such miserable condition. When I got back
home and saw the field condition before kickoff I was cursing myself for having
gone for the middle, as it seemed highly unlikely this game would reach the
30's on such a horrible field. At the very least, I got half of the unit back
by betting the second half Under 14.5. I really thought they'd hang a number
like 10.5 in the second half after a scoreless first. I was pretty sure that
Miami wasn't going to score a touchdown in the second half barring a hugely
big play, so I wasn't worried about a 7-7 2nd half score turning the Under 14.5
into a loser.

It was a very frustrating game to watch as I had Pittsburgh handicapped to cover
the spread. Had I known the field was going to be that miserable, I surely
would've lowered the point spread along with the total. Still, if you ran this
game again in the same conditions Pittsburgh would have a good chance to cover the
-16, as they were in Miami territory at least 10 times and only got 3 points
for their efforts, as every good drive was stopped short by a penalty or turnover.
Very frustrating as I only had Pittsburgh -3 left to finish off a 13 point
teaser. Oh well, the teaser ended up pushing, and I still made a 1/2 unit on the
game -- but like I said, it should've been more, as the known universe made
good money by hitting the Under and Miami once they saw what the field was like.

1 Unit: Under 43/Winner
1 Unit: Over 38/Loser
1/2 Unit: under 14.5 2nd half/Winner

Week #12 Teasers:
1.5 Units: Jaguars -0.5, Chargers -2.5/Winner
1 Unit: Min.+20, KC+7.5, Dal. -1,Pitts. -3/Push

Week #12: Game Sides: +3.9/Game Totals: -2.2/Teasers: +1.5
Halves: +4.6/Quarters: +0.5/Props n' Parlays: +2.0

Week #12: +10.2 Units

***Year to Date***
Game Sides: +15.9/Game Totals: +4.6/Teasers: +4.1
Halves: +4.4/Quarters: +1.0/Props n' Parlays: +2.8

YTD: +32.7 Units, +10.61% ROI, Average bet size = .77 Units, +42.7 average bets