Week #10 Recap

Week #10 Recap

Broncos 27 – Chiefs 11

This game featured my “Damn, why don’t they play 15 m. 20 sec. quarters???” play of the week. I had the Over 7 1^st quarter at even juice. Both teams had chipped in with a field goal (instead of the one touchdown necessary to at least push the stupid bet) and the Chiefs were driving. From somewhere near the Broncos’ 30-40 yard line Huard lobs up a ball to the goal line that is nearly caught, but then intercepted. Boo. Still, Denver starts from the two yard line, and with a 1:25 left in the quarter there’s always a chance for a safety, right? First down, Denver runs for -1 yards. 2^nd down from the 1, Denver runs for 4 yards, and the quarter expires: Denver/KC Over 7 1^st q. = loser. 3^rd down, completed pass for 5 yards. 4^th down, punt blocked out of end zone for a safety 19 seconds into the 2^nd quarter. Grr… Oh well, I’ve still got KC -3 (only made the play because of the plus juice on it) and they take a 2 point lead into halftime. One minute and 28 seconds into the second half and it’s Denver 20 – Kansas City 8. WTF? Two turnovers by Huard and stick a fork ‘em, the Chiefs are done. Brody Croyle comes in for a dinged up Huard at some point and doesn’t look half bad. Cue the QB controversy a la Green and Huard of a year ago.

½ Unit: Broncos/Chiefs Over 7 1^st quarter/Loser

½ Unit: Chiefs -3/Loser

Bills 13 – Dolphins 10

Though my numbers didn’t support it, I’d talked myself into thinking that the Over was a good play in this game. Buffalo had had good recent offensive success versus poor defenses, and now faced another one in Miami. Miami, though winless, still had a good running game and Lemon is capable of the occasional sublime throw. Here they were also facing a statistically rated basement-dwelling defense. Dinna’ happen, and it wasn’t even bad luck. At halftime the score is Buffalo 0 – Miami 3. The Over is not looking good. Still, last year I had an Under 36.5 between the Dolphins and the Jets with a halftime score of 3-0 that went Over by half point, so maybe the football Gods were looking to give me an equalizer (though they tend not to reward atheists). Dinna’ happen. Both teams had been sucking at about an equal lack of strength during the first half. The halftime line was Buffalo -0.5 at varying degrees of plus juice. Hmm…considering that Buffalo was still the better team and was a favorite entering the game (my line was Buffalo -4.5), I rated them at 50% to still win this game. The baby hook on the halftime line was potentially dangerous, though, because if they tie the game at any point (which would currently be covering the second half bet), the tie would have to be broken and then they’d only rate as small favorites to win the game. Eh, I’ll take my chances. The Bills -0.5 +126 bet at Matchbook was bet. Early in the second the Bills get a safety. Hey, this is good news! That’s better than a field goal, because there’s no tie that needs to be broken now, and Buffalo is covering the second half bet. Fast forward >>> Miami scores a touchdown. Hey, that’s bad news! Fast forward >>> Buffalo scores a touchdown. Hey, that’s good news! Down by 2 (covering the second half bet) they have to go for two to tie the game. Bad news, they convert! Fast forward >>> Bills win on a late field goal. The good/bad/good/bad/good news events of the second half thankfully ended on the odd-number goodies.

½ Unit: Bills/Dolphins Over 40.5/Loser

½ Unit: Bills -0.5 2^nd half (+126)/Winner

13 point teaser: Dolphins +15.5/Covered (entire play lost)

Vikings 0 – Packers 34

Grr…these Vikings are really starting to piss me off. One week I say their one-dimensional offense and one-dimensional defenses will be exploited – and they thoroughly trounce the Chargers. The next week I say, hey, looks like they can get their ground yards versus any defense and that their defense can hold its’ own in the passing game – they get smoked like Gouda by the Cheese Packers. To be fair, the Packers got many breaks with tipped balls and some amazing catches, but it wouldn’t have changed the outcome versus the spread (but maybe on the +19 for the lone teaser loss). The weather was my fair-weather friend this week, as it failed to bring its’ nasty side to Green Bay and Seattle for games in which I’d bet the run-oriented underdogs. Cest’ la vie, and vie lace (sic, I’m sure, as I don’t speak French, but loosely translated “That’s life, and long live the shoelace.”)

1 Unit: Vikings +6/Loser

To Win ½ Unit: Vikings ML +236/Loser

13 point teaser: Vikings +19/Loser (this one sunk the ship as the other 3 hit, or is that missed the ship because they won? Eh…)

½ Unit: Packers/Vikings Under 18.5 2^nd half/Loser (Packers 21-0 2^nd half, lol)

Browns 28 – Steelers 31

It was rather sporting of the Steelers to spot the Browns such a large halftime lead – thankfully the Steelers had enough game to come back in the second and cover the -2.5 teaser I had them on. The Steelers’ defense actually limited the Browns to their worst offensive performance in terms of yards gained in the Derek Anderson era. The Browns only gained 163 yards, and they’d been averaging 386 since DA took over at QB. That 163 was 140 yards lower than their next lowest output of the DA era. If the Browns’ potent offense was held to 3.08 yards per play, when they’d be averaging 6.37 in the DA era, what do you think the Jets will be able to do next Sunday? Squat.

½ Unit: Steelers/Browns Over 47.5/Winner

7 point teaser: Steelers -2.5/Covered

13 point teaser: Over 35/Covered (entire play won)

Rams 37 – Saints 29

This game was like holding a bingo card that wins after only 5 numbers have been called, lol. I had 3 straight bet winners, a parlay winner, and 2 teaser covers in this game alone. The Rams’ offense played well, as I expected versus a very poor Saints’ defense. They took advantage of some turnovers as well. The Saints went on a 22 point 4^th quarter tear while trying to get back into this game, but fell 8 points short as they were soooooo far behind.

1 Unit: Rams/Saints over 44.5/Winner

¾ Unit: Rams +11.5/Winner

13 point teaser: Rams +24.5/Covered (entire play lost)

13 point teaser: Over 33/Covered (entire play won)

½ Unit: Saints/Rams Over 23.5 1^st half/Winner

¼ Unit: Rams +7/Over 23.5 1^st half Parlay/Winner

Titans 28 – Jaguars 13

I vacillated wildly on this game during the week – all according to David Garrard’s status. In the end I ate some juice on a Titans’ buy back but still came out ahead with the Jaguar play made when it was all said and done. I decided to go ahead with the ½ Unit play on the Jaguars (in spite of Garrard sitting out) because it was determined shortly before game time that Albert Haynesworth wouldn’t be anchoring the defensive line for the Titans. He was the one player they couldn’t afford to lose and it cost them dearly as they gave up a season high 166 yards on the ground – the only time they’ve given up more than 100 all year. This one player sitting out had a pretty big ripple effect as it allowed the Jaguars’ inexperienced QB to only attempt 23 passes for the game, completing 13 for 96 yards. Vince Young was able to get his season high for passing yards as they were playing from behind the whole game, but he still only averaged 5.11 yards per pass attempt, exactly one yard below the league average of 6.11.

This game was one of the two that I targeted with some prop plays. In my thread from last week I went into detail about these plays, including their pros and cons.

1^st, I had the “First score will be a FG or safety” +105 bet. The Titans’ did their part, scoring 2 field goals and one touchdown, but the Jags ruined the play with a late first quarter touchdown, the first score of the game. The play was already made when the news that Albert Haynesworth would be sitting out arrived. Who knows, that may have been enough to deter me from the bet.

2^nd, I had the “Will there be a score in the last 2 minutes of the 1^st half? – “No”” bet at +160. With just over a minute left in the first half, the Titans had the ball on their own 31 yard line, and had been shut out in the first half so far. You’d like your chances of no more scores in the half there, right? I wasn’t tracking the game closely as I was getting my halftime plays ready, and the stupid NFL tickers showed a halftime score of 14-0. Sweet, I thought, I hit that “end of the half” play. Wrong! The Titans’ completed some big passes and Bironas kicks the 37 yarder with 2 seconds left on the clock at the time of the snap, ie., it lost on the last play of the half, lol. I said with the posted play that Bironas would be the biggest threat to this play…yup. Just missed the +160 juice play.

3^rd, I had the “Will there be 3 unanswered scores? “No”” play at +145. Logic dictates that lower scoring games with fairly evenly matched teams have a better chance than others of winning this play. The Jaguars had 4 scores in the game, the Titans 3. At one point each team had 2 consecutive scores, but neither hit 3 in a row. The one upside of Bironas’ last second first half field goal was that it nixed the Jaguars’ current streak of 2 scores that threatened this play. But obviously I’d have rather cashed the +160 winner and take my chances that the Titans get the first score in the second half, lol.

½ Unit: Jaguars +4.5/Winner

13 point teaser: Jaguars +17/Covered (entire play won)

½ Unit: First score will a FG or safety, +105/Loser

½ Unit: No score in the last 2 minutes of the first half, +160/Loser

½ Unit: Will either team have 3 unanswered scores – No, +145/Winner

Eagles 33 – Redskins 25

This was a back and forth game with neither team being up by more than one score the entire way. Both teams ran the ball pretty well, but the Eagles did better averaging almost 5 yards a carry. McNair ended up with a good 8 yards per pass attempt average thanks to the 60+ yard dump off to Westbrook that went for a touchdown. That was a huge play, as it was the covering score for a small Eagles’ ML play I had.

To Win ½ Unit: Eagles ML/Winner

Falcons 20 – Panthers 13

This was one of my two favorite Under plays of the week, and it was never in jeopardy. The final score is a little misleading as the Falcons got a touchdown with 26 seconds left in the game, where they’d normally wind up with the field goal, or a miss leading to a probable field goal in OT and a 16-13 score for someone either way. It seems pretty clear to me that the Under is the right play in a game that ends up with 17 punts. I’d made a Panther -4 play early in the week which I later, thankfully, got off of with a Falcons +4 play when it seemed like Matt Moore might be the starting QB for the Panthers. So I ate a little juice, but saved what would’ve been a ½ Unit loser.

My final line on this game was Falcons +2, O/U of 33.5, so I was looking at a close, low-scoring game here. The 1^st quarter line had the Falcons +0.5 at -115 juice. Me likey. A 0-0 score at the end of the first quarter for a Falcons 1^st q. cover wouldn’t have surprised me that much. Instead, the Falcons get a touchdown midway through the first quarter that all but guaranteed the 1^st quarter play win (1^st quarter score ended up Falcons 7 – Panthers 0).

This was the other game in which I had a couple of prop plays. Another close, low-scoring game forecasted in this one. Low-scoring games are a football bettors best friend, and this is just one example of that (not that I made any money on the prop plays this week, lol, I was down 1/5^th of a Unit is all).

1^st, I had the “No score in the last 2 minutes of the 1^st half play” at +160. The Falcons punt the ball with 2:43 left in the first half, and the Panthers get a return of 33 yards to set themselves up at the Atlanta 35, which leads to what? Yup, a field goal with no time left on the clock. I said Kasey would be the threat to this play, and indeed he was. I’m not saying that a score in the last 2 minutes of the first half is uncommon, indeed no – it’s the most likely 2 minutes of the entire game to have a score! Why else would the line be between -180 for a score, and +160 for no score (average line)? Obviously, it is way more likely than not for there to be a field goal, at the least, in the final two minutes before half. I’m just saying that I was in pretty good shape with the Titans starting a drive at their own 24 with 1:51 left in the half. They converted 2 third downs, including one for 19 yards that set them up for the 37 yarder before half. The Panthers, if they have a league average punt return of 9.4 yards would’ve started the drive at their own 40 with 2:30 left in the half. Up until that point the only points they scored in the game came courtesy of a fumble return for a touchdown. I’m just sayin’ is all…lol. Both end of the half bets went down when a team that had scored zero points up till that point mustered a field goal.

2^nd, I had the “3 unanswered scores, “No”” bet at +145. It ended up with the same number of scores as the other game – Falcons 4, Panthers 3, for a total of 7. And, just like in the Titan/Jag game, each team had 2 consecutive scores only once. This may be the prop bet with the most value…when you pick your spots carefully. It’s hit 2 of 3 for me this year at +145, with the lone loss coming courtesy of the Packer 60 yard intereception return for a touchdown with a minute left in the game 2 weeks ago.

1 Unit: Falcons/Panthers Under 37 (bought the hook -117)/Winner

½ Unit: Falcons +0.5 1^st quarter, -115/Winner

½ Unit: “No Score last 2 minutes of the 1^st half,” +160/Loser

½ Unit: “3 Unanswered scores by a team – “No,”” +145/Winner

Bengals 21 – Ravens 7

It’s hard to cash a ticket on an Over 44.5 when one team goes 0 fer 7 in the red zone. Thank you very much, Bengals. At least Shane Graham connected on all 7 field goal attempts, including 5 in the second half to cash the second half Over and break even on the Overs in this game. The Ravens worked their usual offensive magic and were held scoreless until late in the game. I mean, come on, if you can’t score on the Bengals’ defense you’ve got a 16 year old, “before” photo for a ProActiv ad., math geek with Asperger Syndrome for an offensive coordinator. It wasn’t that they lacked for yards (272), they just failed to convert them into points at anything near the league average (17.5 points for 272 yards). If they had, and the Bengals had found the endzone on even 2 of their 7 red zone trips (+8 points), voila! 46 points and a cover. At least the Bengals were able to drop-kick the Ravens on their home turf by dropping those 7 kicks over the uprights. Has a team ever NOT scored any touchdowns in a game and won by a 14 point margin? AIverson, if you’re reading this, look it up, my man (or anyone else who carries a 30 year NFL database in their back pocket).

1 Unit: Bengals +4.5/Winner

½ Unit: Bengals/Ravens Over 44.5/Loser

½ Unit: Bengals/Ravens Over 20.5 2^nd half (-115)/Winner

Bears 17 – Raiders 6

This game must’ve been like watching leapers committing suicide on the Golden Gate Bridge: 1^st 90% an agonizing free-fall by two terrible teams, last 10% big splash for the Bears at the end of the game. Tough loss for Raider bettors, especially those who got the +3.5 later in the week.

½ Unit: Raiders +3/Loser

Lions 21 – Cardinals 31

The “tough at home” Cardinals didn’t disappoint those of us who hammered the early +1, +1.5 lines available early in the week. From the 2^nd quarter on out it was never in doubt. The Under 21.5 for the second half looked golden as the Cardinals had completely shut down the Lions’ run attack, and figured to run out the clock themselves in the 4^th quarter. In spite of 3 2^nd half touchdowns, I was hanging by the hook when the Lions mounted a late game drive (the hook being a huge factor in playing the Under for a full unit). When I made the halftime play, I wasn’t aware that the Cardinals’ excellent defensive end, Berry, was out of the game with an injury. The only back up to him that lines up on his side of the field is Joe Tafoya, who’s been injured a lot this year and done basically nothing. So I wasn’t aware that the Cardinals had lost their blind side QB rusher, and the Lions were of course going to be throwing almost non-stop the entire second half. It mighta’ deterred me, it just mighta’. Still, the bet was alive until the Lions scored on a touchdown pass with 1:15 left in the game, and it looked like a situation where they would’ve gone for it on 4^th down instead of kicking a field goal, as they were down by 17 points.

3/4^th Unit: Cardinals +1/Winner

1 Unit: Under 21.5 2^nd half/Loser

Cowboys 31 – Giants 20

The Giants caught enough breaks in the 1^st half to hang in there for a 17-17 halftime tie. No such luck in the second half as the superior Cowboys took it to them. The Giants hadn’t played a football game on American soil for 3 weeks – I thought they might come out in a 4-4-3 with Eli Manning in goal. They did put up a futbol like 3 points in the second half, so they might’ve had a little foreign soil underneath their fingernails still. Much was made of the “Blue Kool Aid” that the Giants’ backers might be drinking by betting them versus the Cowboys, and it did turn out to be pretty lethal stuff. The bottom line was this: the Giants have a below-average passing game, and the Cowboys have the second best in the league. That easy bit of information certainly helped my bottom line this past week.

1 Unit: Cowboys Pick/Winner

3/4^th Unit: Cowboys/Giants Under 24.5 1^st half/Loser

3/4^th Unit: Cowboys/Giants Under 24.5 2^nd half/Winner

Colts 21 – Chargers 23

I took the Colts -3 when the line first came out as my line was pretty close to that and I anticipated some line movement to set up a potential middle on the key numbers of 3 and 4. The line did jump right away, but then hovered at -3.5 -4 for the rest of the week. As the Colts’ injury reports became increasingly worse, I bet back on the Chargers +3.5 when I heard that Marvin Harrison didn’t even take the flight to San Diego. So I only had small opportunity for a win/push in the event of a Colts 3 point victory. The buy back did end up saving me, but it took a huge number of breaks for the Chargers to win that game…I mean colossally huge numbers of breaks (minus the one huge break the Colts got recovering the fumble for a touchdown in the endzone). I’m sure everyone is aware of D. Sproles’ 2 touchdown returns, and that Manning threw a career-high 6 interceptions. In spite of all that, the Colts were right there to win it until Adam Vinatearyourheartout semi-shanks a 29 yard field goal attempt.

1 Unit: Colts -3/Loser

1 Unit: Chargers +3.5/Winner

49ers 0 – Seahawks 24

I jumped on the Under in this game fairly early in the week when I was able to get an Under 40 at WSEX. I took it for 2 Units with the intention of buying back one of them if the weather didn’t pan out to be really terrible. Well, Monday morning the weather was looking like a tsunami had hit Seattle and I was feeling pretty gleeful. No buy backs for me, I was going to take the full 2 Units on the Under straight to the bank. Not only that, if the winds stayed high and gusty this would help slow down the Seahawk passing game and set SF up to compete in a closely contested ground game. I was feeling so gleeful that I bet 1/3^rd of a Unit on SF ML. I already had my middle opportunity in place with a Seahawks -3 last leg of a teaser and a 49ers +10 bet on the ledger. But then, the eye of the hurricane hovered over Qwest field for the entire game, allowing the Seahawks to utilize their superior passing game. Behind the whole game, the 49ers gambled and lost on 4^th downs, thus ensuring that they didn’t so much as cover a 13 point teaser. Blech, I was really banking on there being some bad weather to help the 49ers stay in it. Later in the afternoon, when the forecast had changed to 20 mph winds (very little felt in stadium) and maybe only occasional rain showers, it was time to buy back half of the original Under bet, which was the original plan. I was still able to get the buy back/middling opportunity at Over 36.5, though I felt, as stated in my post, that I felt that it was throwing money away, as I liked the Under in this game regardless of the weather. Turned out to be true, but I was able to recoup the lost middling try taking the Under 17 for the second half, plus a cherry on top with the Seahawks -4 2^nd half as well.

2 Units: Seattle/SF Under 40/Winner

1 Unit: Seattle/SF Over 36.5/Loser

1 Unit 2 team 7 point teaser: Seattle -3/Covered on a winning ticket

1 Unit: 49ers +10 (-115)/Loser

1/3 Unit: 49ers ML/Loser

1 Unit: Under 17 2^nd half (+111)/Winner

3/4^th Unit: Seahawks -4 2^nd half/Winner

Week #9: Game Sides: +0.4/Game Totals: +2.4/Teasers: +0.6

Halves: +1.8/Quarters: 0/Props n’ Parlays: +0.6

Week #9: +5.8 Units

I felt due for a good +6 Unit week as I’d been hovering a little below zero for the 3 weeks prior, and would’ve gotten there if not for the 49ers ML bet I made when the weather was looking really nasty, lol.

***Year to Date***

Game Sides: +7.2/Game Totals: +4.5/Teasers: +4.0

Halves: +1.2/Quarters: +0.5/Props n’ Parlays: +0.1

YTD: +17.4 Units/+7.53% ROI/Average bet size=0.79 Units, +21.9 average bets for year

I’d dug myself a little “2^nd half hole” when I hit a bad streak of 2^nd half plays early this season. While I felt that this was partially due to bad luck (aren’t all losses due to bad luck? Lol), it motivated me to build a second half line generator to quickly calculate lines for me, as well as the appropriate bet size according to the actual line and the value.

Taking my muddled head out of the split-second decision making needed to get 2^nd half bets in at the best available lines has proved very valuable, as 2^nd half bets have actually been my most profitable sector (my game totals are right there with them, though) since I implemented the system. I’m pleased as punch, and not of the blue Kool-Aid variety, either (Yuck, I never, ever liked Kool-Aid, even as a kid. The shit tastes like sugar water and color # whatever the artificial color happens to be).