Week 13 Write-Ups, Lines and Values

Week 13 Write-Ups, Lines and Values

Legend

Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value

Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

Falcons/+3/-5/Falcons 20.0% value

Rams/40/36/Under 9.7% value

Bulger will miss this game with a concussion. That leaves Gus Frerotte to start at QB for the Rams, and he has only a 51.8 QB rating this year, far below Bulger’s 73.3, and Bulger was not playing 100% healthy for many of his starts. The Rams will want Stephen Jackson to carry the offense on his shoulders this week to take the pressure of Gus. The Falcons, also, are weaker at defending the run than the pass. The Falcons may employ a “stop the run first” defensive strategy and hope for Frerotte misfires to stall Ram drives. At any rate, the Rams’ longest pass play of the season is only forty yards, so the Falcons can afford to cheat on defending the run first. Bruce and Holt, the Rams’ two leading wideouts, are 34 and 31 years old, respectively. Drew Bennett has had nagging injuries for most of the season, and Dante Hall, more of a returner than a WR anyway, is just back from injury. If you stop Stephen Jackson no one else has much break away speed on the Rams’ offense right now.

Joey Harrington will start at QB for the Falcons again. He struggled versus the excellent Colts’ secondary last week after winning back to back games versus the lowly 49ers and Panthers. The Falcons should have decent offensive balance in this game. The Falcons are a better running team than passing team, and the Rams are better defensively versus the run than the pass. Unlike the Falcons, the Rams won’t be able to cheat much on defense without getting caught, so the advantage goes to the Falcon offense in this game. The Rams just lost LB Tinoisamoa for the year, which will hurt them as an already thin linebacking corps just got that much thinner. James Hall will be missing from the Rams’ defensive line, Eric Bassey will be missing at CB, and Fakhir Brown is questionable as a starting CB.

Both teams have had numerous injuries to their offensive lines this year, so one blown block can lead to a negative yard play that could kill a drive for either one of these mediocre offenses. It will be hard for either team to sustain long, touchdown scoring drives. The O/U in this game opened at a generous 42, a number too high even if Bulger were to play. He’s not, and the number has dropped to 40, 40.5, which still provides plenty of bettable value on the Under.

All in all, both teams are defensively about the same, in the running game about the same (Dunn and Norwood tandem not far behind Jackson), with the Falcons having the clear advantage at QB with Harrington’s 79.7 QB rating versus Frerotte’s 51.8. It’s been two years since Frerotte has been a full time starter. In 2005 he started 15 games for the Dolphins and had a 71.9 QB rating, still below Harrington’s rating this year. The Rams have many more defensive injuries. Home field advantage won’t be enough, I smell an upset.

Final Score Prediction: Falcons 21 – Rams 17

Bills/+6/+11.5/Redskins 15.4% value

Redskins/37/34.5/Under 7.1% value

The big story of the week of course is Sean Taylor’s death. From a football perspective, it’s hard to say how focused the Redskins have been in practice this week. Of course, they’ll give a good effort during the game, but football is a game won with your head, not your heart, when it comes down to it. The good news for Redskins’ bettors is that it probably won’t matter – as long as the Redskins can play what amounts to them an average game of football, they’ll crush the Bills. The Bills were physically annihilated by the Jaguars last week. Half of their defensive line left Jacksonville with injuries last week. Those that play this week won’t be 100%. They lost more players in their secondary as well. Bad news for the Bills as they travel for a second straight week to play another team that features a bruising running game. Portis and Betts are going to break off 5 yard + runs like pieces of a Kit-Kat bar, and Campbell should continue to improve his passing game as he’ll be facing some easy coverages as the Bills will be forced to provide additional help in stopping the run.

The Bills are going back to Trent Edwards this week at QB. Trent has a QB rating 7 points below Losman’s, so I wouldn’t expect any improvement in the Bills’ passing game this week, especially with the lack of run support they’re going to get. The Redskins’ defense has been sliding because of injuries, but the Bills don’t have the total offensive package necessary to take advantage of the Redskins’ current weaknesses. The defense is the one side of the ball that can show marginally better results when playing with emotion, so I expect the Redskins’ defensive injuries to be counterbalanced by their desire to win one for their fallen defensive comrade. I see at worst a 10 point victory for the home Redskins, and it could go much higher as the Bills are unable to stop even average run attacks late in a game in which they’ve been on the field all day. The Redskins’ pounding on the injured Bills’ defense all day will open up some big passing plays down the field as well. I see no way the Bills will be able to contain the Redskins’ offense in this game.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 10 – Redskins 23

Lions/+4/+6.5/Vikings 5.9% value

Vikings/45.5/44/Under 3.1% value

Adrian Peterson is set to return in this game, which will help as the Lions have a good run defense, definitely the strength of their defense as they’re weak against the pass. The Vikings actually didn’t run the ball very well versus the Giants last week, and the Lions have a better run defense than the Giants do. The Vikings passing game has actually become very efficient in its’ limited use as the play-action pass is so effective with the running game they have. They’ve been able to go over the top of the opposing defense a couple of times in the last 2 weeks for huge plays. They’ve also added a wrinkle in letting Sidney Rice throw the occasional ball from the WR position.

The Lions got their on again, off again run game back on versus Green Bay last week. It’ll be tough to do two weeks in a row versus the #2 run defense in the league, so they may turn the run game back off again in an attempt to steal a much needed road victory in their quest for a wildcard playoff spot. The Vikings’ pass defense is still not as bad as the “Total Yards Allowed Heads” like to think. People don’t run it against the Vikings much, that’s why they give up more pass yards, duh. No team has faced a higher ratio of pass plays to run plays than the Vikings have. Sub-par pass defense, yes, but there are still 11 teams that give up more yards per pass attempt than the Vikings. Only 6 teams in the league average more interceptions per game than the Vikings’ defense, and only 11 teams average more sacks per game. The Lions, who are a pass-first team, are still only almost right on the league average in terms of yards per pass attempt at 6.14.

When these two teams faced each other in Detroit earlier in the year, the Lions eked out a 20-17 victory. Just because Adrian Peterson has since blossomed doesn’t warrant a total as high as 45.5. Both of these teams still have offensive weaknesses that will allow the opposing defenses to cheat a little, so I’d avoid the Over completely in this game. Just like the Cowboys held the offensive upper hand in the Thursday game because of their ability to freeze defenders with the run, so to will Minnesota in this game, which should be enough to win the home game and even the season series at one a piece.

Final Score Prediction: Lions 19 – Vikings 26

Texans/+3.5/+4/Titans 1.3% value

Titans/41/42/Over 2.4% value

Albert Haynesworth is set to return to the middle of the Titans’ D-line, and no defender in the entire league has had his presence missed as much as he has these past few games for the Titans. He’s a run-stuffing beast that is also capable of getting to the QB – he has 5 sacks in 8 games. There’s a chance that he’s returning at less than 100% as the Titans are coming in with a two game losing streak and can’t afford to lose any more ground in the tough AFC wildcard race. The Texans have one of the worst run offenses in the league and will be without Ahman Green again this week, so they very well might have the worst running game in the league right now, lol. With Haynesworth back for the Titans’ the Texans have that much more incentive to stick with the passing game and attack a Titans’ secondary that has been torched by the Broncos and Bengals the last two weeks. The Texans and Schaub have done phenomenally well at avoiding sacks considering only 10 other teams have a higher ratio of pass to run plays. The only game this year in which the Texans gave up more than 2 sacks was the 3 the Colts had in a game in which the Texans were playing from behind the whole second half. This suggests that Schaub has a good internal clock that tells him when to get rid of the ball. The Titans’ rely almost exclusively on their front four to pressure the quarterback. As groups, their cornerbacks, safeties and linebackers have only one sack each. Only one sack from the linebackers – that’s telling. What it also tells me is that this vanilla defensive scheming is probably why the Titans have been lit up the last couple of weeks. If they don’t mix things up in an attempt to confuse Schaub, Schaub could have a very big day against them. Hell, Sage Rosenfels, his back up, threw, what was it, four touchdowns in the second half versus the Titans earlier in the year to take the lead with a minute left in the game? Any way you look at it, the Texans should have good success with the passing game this week.

The Titans should also have good offensive success unless they continue to shoot themselves in the foot in the red zone like they did last week. Moving the ball hasn’t been the problem for the Titans during their mini-slump. Vince Young has moved the ball pretty well in the middle of the field but been awful once they’re deep in the opponent’s territory. They should remedy that ailment to a certain degree as the Texans don’t scare anyone on defense, though they’ve been strangely stout with their red zone defense. Holding the Titans to 2 of 9 in the red zone in week 7 certainly helps with their 42.2% season average, though, lol. As this game figures to be fairly close most of the way, the Titans shouldn’t have to rely on Vince Young’s arm in the 4^th quarter like they’ve had to in losing efforts, which means they should probably get the close-fought home victory after their two week road skid.

Weather could be a factor, I’d wait and check before game time tomorrow if you have a lean on the Over like I do.

Final Score Prediction: Texans 19 – Titans 23

Jaguars/+7/+9.5/Colts 5.9% value

Colts/45/48/Over 6.6% value

Unfortunately it looks like Marvin Harrison won’t be playing this week, as my bets are already in on the Colts and the Over. Fine, I still think they cover and light up the Jaguars’ secondary with their remaining targets. The Jaguars have allowed 6.38 yards per pass play to teams who average a combined 6.17 yards per pass play. The Colts seem to have finally adjusted to not having Marvin Harrison available as Anthony Gonzalez picked up the slack versus the Falcons last week. The Colts may still get Ugoh and Diem back for their O-Line this week. I expect the Colts to employ the no-huddle that they often do and relentlessly attack the Jaguars secondary, keeping them off-balance all game long. The last time the Jaguars played a road game in a dome it was 4 weeks ago versus the Saints and Drew Brees ate them alive. Call me crazy, but I think Peyton Manning is just as capable a QB as Brees, lol. The Colts creamed the Jaguars in Jacksonville 2 weeks before that after Garrard left early with an injury and Gray just didn’t look ready to replace him, which killed the Over play I had in that game. Well, barring Garrard going down again, the Jaguars should score enough points to keep Manning in the entire game looking for insurance scores.

The Jaguars are all of a sudden without two of their tight ends, Wrighster and Estandia, though they still have M. Lewis, who has near the same number of receptions as the other two combined. Still, that gives them fewer options, and fewer experienced blockers in the run game they rely on. No one is quite sure where the the Colts’ defensive success has come from this year, but they’re only allowing 3.85 yards per carry (league average 3.99), and 4.91 yards per pass (league average 6.15), so they’ll be able to put a couple of extra defenders in the box versus the Jaguars’ run attack while still limiting the Jaguars’ passing game. Once the Jaguars are forced to go the pass late in the game (as I expect them to be playing from behind), the Colts’ second-rated pass defense should be able to make enough plays to preserve a minimum 10 point victory.

Final Score Prediction: Jaguars 20 – Colts 30

Jets/+1.5/-0.5/Jets 5.3% value

Dolphins/37.5/39.5/Over 5.2% value

Here it is, the Dolphins’ best shot to avoid a winless season. Too bad all they have available to accomplish this is a “forced to play though gimpy” running back in Chatham and a man-rookie QB making his 3^rd start. Still, the Dolphins’ offensive line has performed rather well this year and Beck has been mistake-free so far, which gives the Dolphins a near 50/50 chance of getting off winning versus an equally woeful Jets’ squad. The quick version: The Jets’ have a slightly better run defense, a somewhat worse pass defense, a significantly worse run attack, and a semi-worse quarterback rating, with Clemens’ 57 versus Becks’ 67. Those QB ratings are only based on two to three games, so anything could happen in this game, realistically. The Jets have injuries to two of their top wide receivers, Coles and Cotchery, but I’d expect them both to play as the Jets don’t want to go down as the only team to lose to the Dolphins this year. Wait, just got an update, Coles is probable and Cotchery is doubtful.

Final Score Prediction: Jets 20 – Dolphins 19

Chargers/-6/-5.5/Chiefs 1.2% value

Chiefs/37.5/36/Under 4.3% value

This game is all about momentum. If you don’t believe in momentum at all, the Chiefs have a little bit of line value this week. If you do believe in momentum, you may believe the Chargers will win this game going away come Sunday. The results may lie somewhere in between, but if one team has pull-away potential in this game, it’s the Chargers. The Chiefs’ defense looked vulnerable versus a weak Raider offense last week while the Chargers put up 32 points versus a decent Ravens’ defense. Croyle has missed practice this week with a bad back, so I’d expect Huard to regain the starting spot as Herm Edwards is in the semi-familiar position of fighting for his job as the season winds down. He cannot afford to put Croyle in the game and risk more injury to the future QB of this team. The season is basically over for them, which is a situation where you’d want to give your rookie playing time, but not if he’s injured.

The running match-ups balance out for the most part in this game, as the Chargers have had better run offense while the Chiefs have had better run defense. The decisive advantage in this game goes to the Chargers with the passing game. Phillip Rivers has been much better with the passing game than either of the two quarterbacks the Chiefs have put on the field this year. That should be enough to win, even on the road in the “scary” Arrowhead Stadium in December (sure shit stinks a little less when it’s cold outside, but the Chiefs have dropped their last two at home to the Raiders and Broncos, two teams the Chargers have waxed this year). I’m not a big believer in the “revenge factor,” but the Chargers probably have that working for them this week after the Chiefs’ improbable come from behind victory versus the Chargers in San Diego earlier this year.

Final Score Prediction: Chargers 21 – Chiefs 14

Seahawks/+3/+8.5/Eagles 13.5% value

Eagles/41/42/Over 1.9% value

I was glad that AJ Feeley got the start last week, and I’m glad he’ll get the start again this week. Westbrook is listed as “?” right now, though he often has been and ends up playing, so I wouldn’t be too concerned with him missing practice. His status is usually upgraded Saturday or Sunday morning at the latest. It’s a must-win game for the Eagles, so I’m sure he’ll end up playing even with a nagging injury. Westbrook at less than 100% still demands enough defensive attention to free up other options in the Eagles’ offense. Alexander will be back at RB for the Seahawks this week, though he’s on the wrong side of 30 years old and it may be hard for him to shake the rust off at this point. Besides, any touches he has will take touches away from Morris who has a better yards per carry average of 4.2 versus Alexanders’ pathetic 3.3.

Here’s how the numbers indicate it will play out: The Eagles’ superior run defense will limit the Seahawks’ inferior run offense. While Hasselbeck is a great quarterback, he won’t be able to do enough by himself versus a speedy Eagles’ defense that likes to pressure the quarterback. Everyone got a good look at what the Eagles’ defense can do versus another pass-heavy offense last week. I don’t think the Seahawks, traveling on the road for a second straight week and going from the west coast to the east coast for an early game will have enough success with their passing game to hang with the Eagles. Deion Branch will be back for the Seahawks at WR, but they’ve lost DJ Hackett for a couple of weeks, so that about squares that. The Seahawks have been pretty solid themselves on defense this year, especially in pass defense, but when you look at the numbers those games came from it’s clear that they’ve done well versus teams like the 49ers (twice), Rams (twice) and Bears (once). If you take the yards per pass attempt allowed versus the rest of their opponents, they’re giving up 7.06 yppa, which isn’t so good. The only team with a decent passing game that they’ve held to significantly below their average was the Bucs in the first game of the season. When you look deeper into their run defense they’re pretty middle of the pack as well. To me this says that the Eagles’ offense will be able to move the ball pretty consistently all day long, as the Seahawks defense won’t be able to get away with cheating versus the run very much without getting burned. The Eagles’ defense can afford to take chances blitzing Hasselbeck regularly and still stop the run with enough success to limit the Seahawks’ ability to compete in this game.

The weather may be a factor for this game, I’d wait and see how it develops before taking the Over if you’re leaning that way.

Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 17 – Eagles 26

49ers/+3/+12/Panthers 25.1% value

Panthers/35.5/35/Under 1.7% value

Whoopty-freakin’-doo, the 49ers finally won a game last week after losing 8 in a row. They caught the Cardinals at a bad time, just their secondish games without Berry, Francisco and Wilson on defense. Starting cornerback Eric Green was lost for the year with an injury as well. Gore finally had a good game, gaining over a 100 yards, though 35 of those came with 1:30 left in the game on a touchdown scamper when the Cardinals were expecting a pass. Dilfer had a pretty good game in the air as well, but the Cardinal defense has been horrible versus the pass since their QB blindside rusher and pro-bowl safety went down with injuries. The Cardinals still passed for over 500 yards versus a 49er pass defense that had been decent until then. The 49er secondary will be without Hudson and Spencer this week after they both went out with injuries last week. Granted, the Carolina offense has been pretty poor since Del Homme hit the IR with an injury, but some of that is due to the QB shuffle during practices and games that ensued, and is mostly attributed to David Carr’s horrific play. Testaverde has been much better, and will be back in action this week after his back seized up on him last week. The brief flicker of offensive light the 49ers kindled last week will be snuffed out this week as they play their second consecutive road game, and this one a west coast to east coast swing for an early game.

Final Score Prediction: 49ers 10 – Panthers 24

Bucs/+3.5/0/Bucs 8.1% value

Saints/41.5/41.5/No value

I’m going to be conservative and list Garcia as “out” for this game. As you can see, there’s still value on the Bucs whether he plays or not. The only bet affected by his status at this point is the Over. If he plays, the Over will be worth hitting, though it may be tough to get a play in before kickoff as he’s a game time decision. If you can, keep your ear close to New Orleans come Sunday. If he plays, I’d make a small play on the Over – small because he surely won’t be 100%.

The Saints’ defensive line is almost back to 100% as Brian Young, DT, will be back in the lineup after missing 4 games. The Bucs have been pretty successful running the ball this year, but I project them to only gain 3.77 ypc in this match-up versus a good Saints’ run defense, which means there’ll be passing a-plenty from both teams in this game. The Saints will fair even worse, with a projected 3.33 ypc. So this leaves two big questions for this game: #1 Will Drew Brees and his improving pass game have the upper hand versus one of the best pass defenses in the league? #2 Will whoever starts at QB for the Bucs have the upper hand versus one of the worst passing defenses in the league? If neither match-up has the clear upper hand and the results fall somewhere in the middle, it should be a close game which is why it’s worth taking the points with the Bucs.

Final Score Prediction without Garcia: Bucs 20 – Saints 20 either team can win

Final Score Prediction with Garcia: Bucs 23 – Saints 20

Browns/+1/+2.5/Cardinals 3.4% value

Cardinals/51.5/50.5/Under 2.0% value

The Cardinals were thought to have been a tough team at home after beating the Steelers there, but have since lost to the Panthers and 49ers there. Enter the Browns, a team that has been very efficient on offense with the young Derek Anderson playing very well at QB and Jamal Lewis at RB picking up the short yards when necessary and controlling the clock with a lead late in the game. They’re bound to have a good offensive day versus a Cardinal defense with all of the injuries I mentioned in the 49er write-up above. So the big question is whether Kurt Warner and Co. can keep pass with their very potent pass offense.

The Cardinals would like to establish the run as the Browns’ run defense is weaker than their pass defense right now with the injuries they have to Ethan Kelly (out), Ted Washington (out), Orpheus Roye (“?”) and Antwaan Peek (“?”) (though their secondary will be without starting CB Eric Wright for a second straight game). The trouble is, the Cardinals have been horrible at running the ball this year, and may hit the panic button/”running game eject button” early in this game to keep pace with the potent Browns’ offense. Larry Fitzgerald, their top threat at WR, is listed as “?” right now and there is a serious chance that he will be limited or out of this game. Braylon Edwards, the Browns’ top WR is also listed as “?” right now, but I think he’s more likely to play. As neither team figures to be that far ahead late in the game, both teams will be looking for points until the final whistle. While the injuries at WR are concerning, both teams have far more defensive injuries, so I like this game to go Over even though my line doesn’t reflect that value. Either team is capable of keeping pace with the other through the air. If Larry Fitzgerald were healthy I’d probably take the Cardinals for at least a small play. As it stands, I’m laying off of both sides and will hope for the shoot-out and the Over to come in.

Final Score Prediction: Browns 24 – Cardinals 27

Giants/-1.5/+3.5/Bears 12.5% value

Bears/40.5/39.5/Under 2.9% value

20+ mph winds are expected in Chicago, which could affect the passing and kicking games in this one. 20 mph is not so bad, but if it picks up and becomes gusty, which is entirely possible, it’ll be tough for both of these teams as neither one features an above average passing game. Grossman has improved his QB rating to 63.3, while Eli Mannings’ is currently 75. The Giants have only had 3 legitimate targets in their passing game this year: Burress, Toomer and Shockey. Both Burress and Toomer are 30+ years old. The Bears also only have 2 main targets at WR, Berrian and Muhammad. Where the Bears will have an advantage in this game is that they have 2 good tight ends, Desmond Clark and rookie Greg Olsen. In a windy game, the Bears will have the advantage of being able to line up in two TE formations and then run or play-action pass in shorter routes to either of these guys.

The Giants will be missing their big back, Brandon Jacobs, while the Bears just lost RB Cedric Benson for the year. Benson hasn’t produced very well this year, and the offensive line is only partially to blame in my opinion. Adrian Peterson looked decent in relief last week for Cedric, so I don’t see how the Bears’ run attack can be any worse than it has been to this point. The Bears will be facing a good Giants’ run defense, so it’ll be tough for them to get anything consistent going on the ground. Derrick Ward will be back at RB for the Giants, which gives them two decent backs with Reuben Droughns to attack a Bears’ run defense which has really been poor this year with nagging injuries to Tommie Harris and Lance Briggs. The Bears will likely put extra defenders in the box, especially if it’s windy, to try and neutralize the advantage the Giants have in the run game. They can afford to cheat in stopping the run in this home game with cold, windy weather while facing a mediocre QB with limited passing targets.

The Bears have a big advantage in special teams, which will play an even bigger part as both teams figure to have numerous punts in this defensive battle. The Bears, of course, have Devin Hester in there for returns. The Giants, and I don’t even want to bother to look up who their return man is, have been sub-par at both punt and kick returns. The Giants have been okay at punt return coverage, but poor at kick return coverage. The Bears have been excellent in both punt and kick return coverage. Gould of the Bears has been a better field goal kicker than Tynes this year as well. Special Teams is 1/7^th of each game, and the large advantage the Bears have in this department will provide the edge they need to win this game at home. Both teams are still hungry for wins pushing toward the playoffs, so neither team has a motivational advantage.

Final Score Prediction: Giants 17 – Bears 21

Broncos/-3.5/-6.5/Broncos 6.9% value

Raiders/42/44/Over 4.7% value

Jay Cutler is really blossoming as the starting QB for the Broncos this year. He looks dopey as hell with his helmet off, but generally makes good decisions out there on the field. He has good legs as well and throws the ball extremely well out of the pocket, which makes him extremely dangerous. Javon Walker saw limited action last week at WR, and will see more snaps this week, which will help, as Brandon Stokely and Glen Martinez may be limited with an injuries. The Raiders’ have decent pass defense, but the Broncos have been shredding decent pass defenses lately, so unless the Raiders can get good pressure on Cutler (and they’re not great at that) they’ll be in for a long offensive day. The Broncos have been killing people with the play-action, and this game should be no different. Travis Henry should be back at RB this week, and he in tandem with Selvin Young provide a pretty potent run attack versus a poor Raiders’ run defense. The Oakland defense really has their cleats tied in knots this week because if they try to take anything away from the Broncos they’re going to get burned.

Daunte Culpepper has been nursing a quad injury and may or may not get the start. This kind of inconsistency in practicing during the week almost always hurts teams. Josh McCown hurt a finger in practice as well, and there’s talk of J. Russell seeing action at QB for this first time in his rookie season in this game. The long and short of it: the Broncos will take away the run and force the Raiders to beat them through the air, which will be difficult as they don’t have a single good option taking snaps for them this week.

Final Score Prediction: Broncos 27 – Raiders 17

Bengals/+7/+5.5/Bengals 4.0% value

Steelers/41/42/Over 2.6% value

My Under 48 was made as soon as the line opened, so it’s just a waiting game to see what condition Ketchup Field will be in before kick off Sunday night. The weather will be nasty again, but with less wear and tear on the field leading up to this game they aren’t going to double-sod it. They’re also going to double-tarp it, so the field should be in much better shape than the Monday Night debacle. If the line stays low and the field looks fair, I may go for the middle.

The Bengals have been very strong on offense since the return of Chris Henry at WR, which happily coincided with the return of Rudi Johnson from an injury, giving them two decent backs with Kenny Watson in the backfield. Their offensive line has only been without Willie Anderson during this stretch, and they’ve really been achieving the offensive potency that they were expected to have as Carson Palmer is widely considered to be the 3^rd best QB in the league.

I continue to be unimpressed by the Steelers’ coaching and play-calling this year. I think it’s directly contributed to some of the close games and losses the Steelers have had this year. The Bengal defense has a least not suffered any more key injuries after losing many players early in the year. This consistency will lead them to stay close to the Steelers, especially if the field deteriorates significantly as the game wears on. The Steelers clearly have the defensive edge in this game, though.

I think the cover in this game could go either way, as the Bengals have been improving while the Steelers have been mediocre. The Steelers still have a big advantage in the running game, which will be enough for them to win the game, but possibly not enough to cover the spread.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 17 --- Steelers 24 (Weather and field conditions may play a big role in the points scored again)

Patriots/-20/-17/Ravens 5.8% value

Ravens/48.5/47.5/Under 2.3% value

The Ravens may invoke the spirit of Edgar Allen Poe, or bring in a witch doctor of some sort, anything, anything to bring huge winds to the game Monday night. The winds are already forecasted in the 20 mph range, but with a pattern of decreasing winds as the game progresses. Without huge winds, the Patriots will have the offensive success they’re accustomed to this year, as the Ravens are only good at stopping the run, something the Patriots haven’t done much of lately anyway. Bad, bad match-up for the Ravens’ defense.

The Patriots’ defense looked vulnerable versus the Eagles last week, but should be able to plug enough holes to limit the Ravens’ offensive success (even though the Pats will be without LB Roosevelt Colvin – they have decent depth at LB). I’m showing line value on the Ravens, but I’ve already bet the Patriots -20 because of the mismatches and the Ravens’ likely inability to get the back door cover with their impotent offense. The Patriots ate humble pie all week long, so anything less than 20 point victory will be deemed a failure in their eyes.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 35 – Ravens 14