Week #11 Recap
“Teaser Megabucks”
I went a little nuts on the teasers this past week, sinking units into a myriad of plays in an attempt to hit the high reward of a high risk/reward megabucks machine. After plunking in my units and pulling the handle, I watched the reels spin, and spin, and spin (hey, 10 hours of spinning is a lot), until finally registering a cherry on the first reel (5 of the 7 plays still alive, the losers coming via the low point production in the Houston/NO (2 points short) and Philly/Miami (4 points short) games). One of the losers was the only less than 1 Unit play, so the potential for a good profit was still there. The closest scare in the morning games for the teasers? The Colts. Vinatieri misses 2 field goals and the Colts squeak by with a 3 point home victory, just covering the -2 13 point tease. Okay, so it was kind of grayed-out cherry, not an actual guarantee of some money back, as none of the teasers were complete yet, but a strong promise with a 2 and 3 team teaser needing only the Steelers versus the hapless Jets. Reel #2 comes along and it’s a total blank. I mean, it was like all the reel had to do was correctly line itself up with any random plum or 7 and I’m guaranteed a profit – but no, it gets stuck in between any actual symbol as the Jets pull off the improbable upset after trailing by 3 points with less than 3 minutes to play and the Steelers having the ball near mid-field. So, the cherry is mostly grayed-out still as one teaser is a winner, but 4 are now losers. Looking at what remains for the 2 still-working teasers brightens the cherry considerably, as they only need the Pats -1.5 and Pats -2. So the final reel comes to a rest and shows the “10x, jackpot – if you had the first two reels lined up you would now receive a monster payoff” kind of symbol. Nope, the second reel was a bust so I end up 3-4 on the teasers down 1.5 Units after the stiff juice incurred on all plays. So close to the big payday, but it’s the nature of big teasers to stiff you with one upset, so c’est la vie.
Overtime = Sudden Death (to any plays working in the game)
By the time the Browns/Ravens game sloppily scored its’ way into Overtime, the only bets I had working were a small Ravens ML play and a Browns +0.5 2nd half bet that only wins if the Browns score a touchdown in OT, lol. Let’s not even mention the Phil Dawson pinball shot that got it to OT after the Browns got the ball back on their 42 with 19 seconds left…ridiculous. That Ravens’ victory was just not meant to be, lol. So yeah, the Browns of course get the FG in OT for a win that makes me a loser on every bet for the game (barring the un-posted 1st half Under play that won as my only un-posted play of the week, lol). The other OT game was the Jets/Steelers fiasco. The Steelers actually had a shot after holding the Jets to a punt after the Jets had the first possession, but promptly went 3 and out, gave up a huge punt return to Leon Washington, and a field goal for the loss not long after. A 4.5 unit swing if the Steelers can just manage the 3 point victory. Ouch. Well, I guess that OT loss wasn’t the death of every play, as I was still able to cash a 13 point teaser that
The Grand Salami
I made a really simple mistake that cost me 3/4ths of a Unit with the Grand Salami bet – I failed to consider that the Patriots, as a road team, were capable of killing the Home Teams -28 bet singlehandedly, which they did. The home teams were actually outscored by 4 points this past week, but if you take away the Patriots game the home teams outscore the away teams by 38, which covers the -28, lol. The Grand Salami bets will keep an eye on where the Patriots are playing from now on, lol.
Final Score Prediction:__San Diego 20 –
Actual Final Score:_____San Diego 17 –
This one was actually never in doubt as the Jaguars had a nice lead most of the way and the Chargers only had one chance to tie the game after getting the ball back with 1:34 left and the whole field to go. I predicted the Chargers wouldn’t be able to win with smoke and mirrors versus the Jaguars, and that proved to be true as Garrard continued his perfect record of no interceptions and the Chargers were unable to get any touchdown returns.
3/4th Unit: Jaguars -3/Winner
3/4th Unit: Over 40/Winner
Final Score Prediction:__Kansas City 14 –
Actual Final Score:_____Kansas City 10 –
The usually sure-footed Adam Vinatieri seems to be suffering from the Vanderjagt-Colt curse as of late. If he doesn’t get his head on straight soon he’ll be released at the end of the year, but not picked up by the Cowboys as they seem to have a decent kicker now, lol. If you can’t consistently make field goals, you sure as hell better to able to put the ball into the endzone on kickoffs…
The Chiefs’ defense did their job and put the team into position to win the game, but the Chiefs’ offense were in a tough spot starting Brodie Croyle for the first time versus one of the best defenses in the league on the road and ultimately couldn’t get the points necessary.
½ Unit: Under 44/Winner
½ Unit: Over 42/Loser
½ Unit: 1st half Under 21.5/Winner
Final Score Prediction:__Oakland 14 –
Actual Final Score:_____Oakland 22 –
My “Surprise Over of the Week” was cashed by halftime, but I gave it back with the 2nd half Over that came up 7 points short, lol. Still a good game as the Vikings’ ground game rolled big time as predicted. 4 1st half turnovers killed the Vikings -3 1st half play, but set me up to double down with another 1 Unit on the Vikings -3 2nd half, so it worked out alright in the end. T. Jackson had his first decent game as QB for the Vikings, completing 17 of 22 for 171 yards, no TDs, 1 INT. If he can continue to improve, the Vikings will have a good shot of making the playoffs next year. I figured Culpepper would have to throw it a lot to try and keep up in this game (while attacking the weaker part of the Vikings’ defense), and did he ever, as
1 Unit: Vikings -5.5/Winner
3/4th Unit: Over 35.5/Winner
½ Unit: Vikings -3 1st half/Loser
1 Unit: Vikings -3 2nd half/Winner
3/4th Unit: Over 20 2nd half/Loser
Final Score Prediction:__Cleveland 23 –
Actual Final Score:_____Cleveland 33 – Baltimore 30 (OT)
The Ravens certainly didn’t deserve to win this game after putting up only 7 points in the first half courtesy of a Ray Lewis pick 6, but there they were with a 3 point lead kicking off with 26 seconds or so left in the game. Wisely, they kicked it to Joshua Cribbs because, hey, he’s never done squat on kickoff returns, has he? The Ravens escorted him downfield while letting the clock run, before finally deciding to stop him with 19 seconds left. The Browns complete a nice pass, and instead of trying to keep the man in bounds while not tackling him so the clock runs out, they go right ahead and tackle him, god forbid they’d actually do something intelligent even once in this game. Phil Dawson’s “Stuffed by the Stanchion” kick is finally ruled good after a 5 minute tea break, and the Browns carry the momentum into the OT and get the win.
To win ½ Unit: Ravens ML/Loser
½ Unit: Browns +0.5 2nd half/Loser
½ Unit: Under 21 2nd half/Loser
Final Score Prediction:__Pittsburgh 27 – NY Jets 14
Actual Final Score:_____Pittsburgh 16 – NY Jets 19
I guess the Steelers do suck on the road after all, but c’mon – the Jets only had 7 sacks for the entire season coming into this game. They doubled their season production by sacking Big Ben 7 times. I give credit to the Jets’ coaches for this victory. They had an aggressive defensive game plan, realizing they’d need to take chances and not allow the Steelers to wear them down with numerous lengthy drives.
1 Unit: Steelers -9/Loser
½ Unit: Over 20 1st half/Push
¼ Unit Pitts and Over 1st half/Loser
Final Score Prediction:___Tampa Bay 21 –
Actual Final Score:______Tampa Bay 31 –
The Bucs covered as expected, but I didn’t expect this kind of a shellacking. Leftwich has been horrible in the pocket when he’s played this year. His big arm hasn’t been strong enough to hold onto the ball when defenders get to him, and has been prone to misfires when he actually gets rid of the ball in the way he intended. The Bucs’ defense is generally opportunistic, opportunity knocked, the Falcons got rocked. It was mighty kind of the Falcons to at least chip in with 7 points at the end of the game (thanks to Joey Harrington) as the Bucs were still 5 points shy of covering the Over by themselves.
1 Unit: Bucs -3/Winner
½ Unit: Over 35.5/Winner
Final Score Prediction:___Arizona 24 – Cincinatti 27
Actual Final Score:______Arizona 35 – Cincinatti 27
The Bengals’ outgained the Cardinals 5.42 ypp to 4.49. That’s almost a full yard better on every single play. Unfortunately for Carson Palmer, he was throwing very catchable balls, 3 of which went to Antrel Rolle of the Cardinals, who returned all 3 of them for touchdowns, though the last one was called back due to a dubious call on one of his teammates for blocking Mr. Palmer after the ball was picked. This was a game
½ Unit: Cards/Bengals Under 24.5 1st half/Loser
½ Unit: Cards/Bengals Over 48.5/Winner
Final Score Prediction:___Miami 13 –
Actual Final Score:______Miami 7 --
Donovan McNabb got off to a slow start in this game, with 3 completions and 2 interceptions in 9 throws. It was probably fortunate for the Eagles that he left with an injury, as Jay Feeley in relief gave them a spark with some good QBing and led them to a 17-7 victory after being down 0-7. John “He gives us the best chance of winning right now…snicker” Beck was predictably poor overall in his rookie debut, but the Eagles could only manage to push the spread after such a slow start. When there were 9.5 and 10’s available on the board, I debated whether to pay juice for the 9.5, or get juice on the 10. In the end I went with the +juice, so of course the game landed right on the 10, lol.
1 Unit: Eagles -10/Push’
½ Unit: Over 40/Loser
1 Unit: Eagles -6.5 2nd half/Winner
¼ Unit: Eagles & Over 1st half parlay
Final Score Prediction:___New
Actual Final Score:______New
Odds are you going to win and cover the spread when you score a touchdown on every possession, including one on defense, until sometime during the 4th quarter. I thought the cold would help the Under a little bit, and it did seem to cause a couple of easy drops by the Patriots early in the game, but the hope quickly evaporated as the Patriots converted on every third and fourth down they attempted. The Patriots gamely tried to help my 2nd half Under and Bills’ bets by going for it on 4th down, but the Bills didn’t want to see a good defensive streak of futility end, so they let them score. Another Sunday night suckfest.
1 Unit: Under 47/Loser
½ Unit: Bills +7.5 2nd half/Loser
1 Unit: Under 23 2nd half/Loser
Final Score Prediction:___Washington 16 –
Actual Final Score:______Washington 23 –
The Cowboys really only played the second half, and in spite of that were still covering with 5 minutes left to play. Jason Campbell had a really good game in spite of being short-handed of receivers, and converted a 4th and 4 that led to the touchdown that stole away the Cowboy cover. The Cowboys didn’t get good pressure on
1 Unit: Cowboys -10.5/Loser
½ Unit: Over 23.5 1st half/Loser (wrong half bet, lol)
¼ Unit: Cowboys & Over 1st half parlay/Loser
Final Score Prediction:___New
Actual Final Score:______New
Turnovers and failed 4th down attempts didn’t help the Saints convert yards into points, so they ended up with a meager 10 in a game where both teams seemed guaranteed to make it into the 20s. Such a pitiful performance in point scoring caused me to lose a 4 team teaser by 2 points. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson’s return the lineup paid quick dividends in the form of a long touchdown strike in the first quarter. Reggie Bush continues to not impress, and made his second goal line fumble that I can think of this season.
1 Unit: Texans +2.5/Winner
1 Unit: Over 47/Loser
1 Unit: Under 50.5/Winner
½ Unit: Over 23.5 1st half/Winner
¼ Unit: Texans and Over 1st half parlay/Winner
1 Unit: Texans +0.5 2nd half/Winner
Final Score Prediction:___Carolina 14 – Green Bay 27
Actual Final Score:______Carolina 17 – Green Bay 31
1 Unit: Packers -10/Winner
½ Unit: Packers -3 2nd half/Loser
½ Unit: Under 17.5 2nd half/Loser
Final Score Prediction:___NYGiants 21 –
Actual Final Score:______NYGiants 16 –
The Lions had plenty of chances to win this game, but the sacks, dropped balls and turnovers all combined to take the roar out of their game. Kitna’s frustration is understandable, and I agree; it wasn’t so much that the Giants won the game, but that the Lions lost the game. The Lions outgained the Giants 376 to 341 yards, and killed them in average gain per play, 6.6 to 5.0. That’s a pretty large differential and you won’t often see a team losing with those numbers. It would’ve been a nice victory for my record and would’ve put me right near the top for the second week in a row at The Prediction Tracker . com, though I’m still top ten across all categories, more or less.
½ Unit: Under 50.5/Winner
½ Unit: 1st half Under 24.5/Winner
¼ Unit: 1st half Lions and Under parlay/Loser
½ Unit: Lions +2 1st half/Loser
Final Score Prediction:___Saint Louis 17 – San Francisco 17
Actual Final Score:______Saint Louis 13 – San Francisco 9
This game came down to a couple of dropped balls as the 49ers found a way to keep their losing streak alive. The opening O/U of 41 was an early Christmas present from the books, and even though the Rams had scored a TD less than 5 minutes into the game, the rest of the game produced a whopping 15 more points. I should’ve bet the second half Under as well, but didn’t pull the trigger before the 3rd quarter kicked off. Nolan was feeling generous toward my 49ers 2nd half Pick bet when he decided to kick the field goal down 7 with less than 2 minutes to play, lol, turning what was a probably push into a winner. Even though I had the 49ers in a small ML play, I was actually rooting for them not to score at the very end of the game as I make more money with the “3 unanswered scores – No” bet which would’ve lost if the they get the end of the game winning touchdown. Once again targeting a 49ers game with some specific props paid dividends.
1 Unit: Under 41/Winner
1/3 Unit: 49ers ML/Loser
½ Unit: 3 Unanswered Scores – “No” +145/Winner
To win ½ Unit: No Score Last 2 Minutes of 1st half +160/Winner
½ Unit: 49ers Pick 2nd half/Winner
Final Score Prediction:___Chicago 17 –
Actual Final Score:______Chicago 23 –
The Bears lumbered quickly out of the gate in the form of Cedric Benson ripping off a huge touchdown run, the first 1st quarter the Bears have scored in like, forever. The 10-0 lead didn’t last, and the Bears failed to get the 2nd half scores necessary to keep up with the flying Seahawks. Grossman had a decent game – perhaps he’ll start the rest of the season now that the Bears have zero chance of making the playoffs. The Seahawks proved themselves to be just fine without Shaun Alexander again. He seems to have the heart of a benchwarmer this year, so you might as well park his butt there.
½ Unit: Over 20.5 2nd half/Loser
Final Score Prediction:___Tennessee 17 –
Actual Final Score:______Tennessee 20 –
The game I predicted to be the “forum trap game of the week” proved to be exactly that, as this game was Over before the 1st quarter had even expired, for all intents and purposes. Cutler completely destroyed the Titans’ defense, and was helped out by a punt return for a TD and a long run for a TD as well. I figured Vince Young (and his sub-par group of receivers) was incapable of leading this team back with the pass if it came down to it, and that’s how it played out. He set a career high for passing yards, but failed when the last 2 drives ended with interceptions. My spreadsheet recommended a full 1 Unit play on Denver +0.5 for the second half (a team’s capability of making up a deficit with the pass is part of the line, so it didn’t look good for Tennessee), but ultimately I was gun shy as I already had the Denver Pick play looking good for the game and didn’t want to risk the profit. Well, that was a mistake I’m kicking myself over, because you can’t be afraid to jump on each and every profitable situation due to other bets you have out. I did make personal bets of
3/4th Unit: Broncos Pick/Winner
½ Unit: 1st Score will be a FG or Safety +110/Loser
1/3 Unit: Over 3.5 field goals in game +145/Winner
1/3 Unit: 3 Unanswered Scores – “No” +150/Winner
Week #11: Game Sides: +4.8/Game Totals: +2.3/Teasers: -1.4
Halves: -1.4/Quarters: None/Props n’ Parlays +0.7
Week #11: +5.1 Units
***Year to Date***
Game Sides: +12/Game Totals: +6.8/Teasers: +2.6
Halves: -0.2/Quarters: +0.5/Props n’ Parlays: +0.8
YTD: +22.5 Units, +8.24% ROI, Average bet size = .78 Units, +28.9 average bets
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