NFC Home Field Advantage Game - GB & Dal

NFC Home Field Advantage Game

Legend

Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value

Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

Green Bay/+7/+6/Green 1.7% value

Dallas/51.5/51.5/No value

These isolated games played on Thursday have featured very tight lines the last couple of weeks. Last week the three superior teams all covered the chalk, two of them on the road. Interestingly, both of these teams may prefer to meet each other on the road in the playoffs, lol. The Packers will want a fair weather Dallas game to help their passing game, while Dallas may prefer a game at Lambeau with nasty weather as they have the superior run game. Still, I don’t think you’ll see either team throwing this game tonight just to lose home field advantage for the NFC championship game, lol.

When Green Bay is on offense, it seems obvious what they will do. They’ll line up with a minimum of three wide receiver sets. David Lee, their TE, has near as many catches as their wide receivers, so you’re looking at a minimum of four receiving threats on every play. Favre will take most snaps out of the gun. Green Bay will line up Grant or Morency in the backfield and will run the occasional draw and dump off passes to them. Morency actually has more pass receptions than run attempts, while Grant has a run to catch ratio of four to one. Last week the Packers only ran the ball once they had a large lead in the second half. As they don’t figure to ever be in that situation tonight, the Packers will be passing on almost every play. This gives the Dallas defense the advantage of knowing what they’re facing on most downs. I would expect the Cowboys to bring either Ware from the right side or Ellis from the left side on almost every play. These two have got to be salivating coming into this game knowing that at least one of them will have the opportunity for a sack on almost every play. Dallas will want to put enough pressure on Favre to take away the long balls over the top that take more time to set up. They’ll want to force Favre into quicker, shorter routes and hope for mistakes or incompletions.

When Dallas is on offense, they’ll run first to set up the pass. They actually run the ball a higher percentage of time than the league average, though of course that average is probably skewed somewhat as they’ve had good leads late and run more then. Still, they’ve been very successful running the ball as they’ve averaged 4.42 yards per carry, so whether a team has expected the run or not the Cowboys have been successful regardless. The Packers have lost two defensive tackles recently, Jolly and Cole, which leaves them with only Pickett, Williams, and the undersized Montgomery to play inside on their four man defensive front. A steady dose of inside running will freeze the Green Bay linebackers and safeties enough to free up the big passing plays down the field for the Cowboys. So while the Dallas defense will usually know what’s coming, the Green Bay defense will have to have their heads and eyes in the game on every play or they’ll run the risk of giving up a big play to the big play capable Dallas offense.

The danger with betting the Cowboys in this game is that unless they have a larger than thirteen point lead late in this game, the Packers are entirely capable of getting the late back door score to cover the spread. There’s just too much volatility with these two good offensive and defensive teams to make a play with any confidence, be it on a side or the total. I’d recommend keeping your money in your pocket and heading down to your favorite sports bar (make sure they have the NFL Network, lol) to enjoy the game, and if you know my betting style you know there’s not many games I recommend passing on completely. This is one of them.

Final Score Prediction: Green Bay 23 – Dallas 28

Week #12 Recap

Week #12 Recap

Final Score Prediction:__Green Bay 27 -- Detroit 24
Actual Final Score:______Green Bay 37 -- Detroit 26

The Lions had too many dropped balls, something that didn't plague the Packers as
Brett Favre reeled off 20 straight completions. Still, the Lions had a shot at
the back door cover but came up empty. Detroits' ability to run the ball in
this game could spell trouble for the Packers on Thursday versus Dallas.

1/2 Unit: Packers Pick 2nd half/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__New York Jets 13 -- Dallas 35
Actual Final Score:______New York Jets 3 -- Dallas 35

The Dallas defense predictably made it tough on Kellen Clemens in the first road
start of his career. I anticipated one defensive score by the Cowboys and it
came in late in the first half which had Dallas covering the spread by halftime.
I saw no reason why the Jets would start to be able to move the ball in the
2nd half, so I piled on for some more.

1 Unit: Cowboys -13.5/Winner
1 Unit: Under 21.5 2nd half/Winner
3/4 Unit: Cowboys -7 2nd half/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Indianapolis 26 -- Atlanta 16
Actual Final Score:______Indianapolis 31 -- Atlanta 13

The Colts' kindly spotted the home team a 10 point lead and then proceeded to
crush them the rest of the way. Anthony Gonzalez had a good game at WR filling
in for Marvin Harrison, showing no ill-effects from the broken finger he sustained
a couple of weeks ago. The Falcons also had a chance for the back door cover
but came up empty. The small "for fun" 2nd half parlay would'nt have lost if the
Falcons had managed to put even a meager field goal on the board in the 2nd half.

1/6 Unit: Falcons +7, Under 21 2nd half parlay/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Denver 21 -- Chicago 20
Actual Final Score:______Denver 34 -- Chicago 37

The Bears' "Special Teams Spectacular" sunk the otherwise good bets on the Broncos
in this game, lol. Hester has burned me before, and he burned me again. He's
hard to handicap because you never know if teams are going to kick to him or not.
One thing you can count on though -- the Bears will usually have good field position
after receiving most kicks because of his presence on the field. This game still
looked in the bag with a 14 point lead deep into the 4th quarter, but alas,
the Bears converted on a 4th and goal to get the late tie, and went on to the OT
victory. The Bears getting the last 3 scores of the game killed the "No 3 Unanswered
Scores" bet as well. An unbearably bad bad beat, lol.

1/2 Unit: Broncos +2.5/Loser
1/2 Unit: Broncos Pick 2nd half/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Tennessee 20 -- Cincinatti 24
Actual Final Score:______Tennessee 6 -- Cincinatti 35

The Titans' 2nd consecutive performance of their "Road No-Show" went as planned as
Carson Palmer passed over them like marshmallow-topped yams at the Thanksgiving
table. The Titans, playing from behind, had to abandon the running game with
the predictable result of gaining some passing yards while failing to convert them
into points.

1 Unit: Bengals +2/Winner
1/2 Unit: Titans' Team Total Under 24/Winner


Final Score Prediction:__Buffalo 14 -- Jacksonville 24
Actual Final Score:______Buffalo 14 -- Jacksonville 36

As predicted, the Jaguars were able to physically wear down the Bills' defense in
the second half which led to a couple of easy late touchdown runs. The second half
bets were looking dicey until those two late scores sealed the deal. I love the
games that follow the script.

1/2 Unit: Jaguars -7.5/Winner
1 Unit: Over 35.5/Winner
1 Unit: Jaguars -3 2nd half/Winner
1/3 Unit: Jaguars -5.5/Over 17.5 1st half parlay/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Oakland 12 -- Kansas City 21
Actual Final Score:______Oakland 20 -- Kansas City 17

Things were pretty much on pace to cash until the KC defense gave up a late drive
to the Raiders for the go ahead score and win. "Boneheaded Coach of the Week" award
number 1 goes to Herm Edwards for wasting two timeouts on a spot that clearly
wasn't going to be changed, and for the generally predictable/defeatable play
calling through out the game that led to numerous failed 3rd down tries. For the
love of God, when you're in the "too far to kick, too close to punt, might as well
go for it on 4th and short" territory, how's about a play-action on 3rd and 1 that
could lead to a big play and THEN run it on 4th and 1, instead of running on 3rd
and 1 (predictable) and losing yards? Way to get out-coached by a rookie, Herm.
Everyone was to blame for the loss except Kolby Smith, RB. Croyle missed some
easy throws, as did his receivers, and the defense did an overall poor job as well
in a game they could've dominated.

1/2 Unit: CHiefs -3 1st half/Winner
1 Unit: Chiefs -3.5/Loser
1/2 Unit: Chiefs -1 2nd half/Loser
1/2 Unit: Raiders' Team Total Under 15/Loser
1/3 Unit: No Score last 2 minutes of 1st half/Winner


Final Score Prediction:__Houston 27 -- Cleveland 28
Actual Final Score:______Houston 17 -- Cleveland 27

Houston had the early 7-0 lead in this game but then suffered from numerous stalled
drives in Cleveland territory for the remainder of the game, some of them
because of turnovers. I don't know, maybe the fact that Schaub played his college
ball at Virginia and has only played with Atlanta and Houston in the pros made
his game suffer in the 40 degree Cleveland temperature. He doesn't even have
moderately-cold game weather experience, lol. The Browns were able to slow down
the game with Jamal Lewis running successfully in the second half to protect
their lead, which made the Over come up a touchdown short as well.

1/2 Unit: Texans +4/Loser
1/2 Unit: Texans ML/Loser
1/2 Unit: Over 51/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Seattle 24 -- Saint Louis 20
Actual Final Score:______Seattle 24 -- Saint Louis 19

It took Marc Bulger leaving the game and a total Rams' goalline screw up
at the end of the game to preserve the Seattle come from behind victory. I'd
pretty much written this one off at halftime, so it's nice to get the
occasional resurrected winner.

Seattle -3/Winner


Final Score Prediction:__Minnesota 21 -- NY Giants 20
Actual Final Score:______Minnesota 41 -- NY Giants 17

The underdog play of the week came through in stunning fashion as the Vikings
returned 3 Manning interceptions for touchdowns. The Giants, missing their top two
running backs, had very little success in the running game. Forced to the air,
the Vikings' took advantage of Plaxico's continual lack of practice by picking
off balls thrown to his area where he and Eli were not on the same page. The
21 instant turnover points came in handy, as the Giants actually did a good job
of limiting Chester Taylor and the Vikings' running yard to well below 100. T.
Jackson completed 10 of 12, with the bulk of the yards coming on the first play
of the game -- the 70-80 yard TD strike to Rice. I predicted Eli wouldn't be able
to lead his team to victory without a running game, and the proof is in the
final score pudding.

1 Unit: Vikings +7.5/Winner
1/4 Unit: Vikings ML/Winner
1/4 Unit: Vikings +4, Under 20 1st half parlay/Loser
1/2 Unit: Vikings' Team Total Over 17/Winner
1/2 Unit: Giants' Team Total Under 24/Winner
1/3 Unit: No 3 Unanswered Scores/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__New Orleans 20 -- Carolina 23
Actual Final Score:______New Orleans 30 -- Carolina 6

This one was doomed as soon as Vinny Testaverde woke up with a sore back and
was scratched as available in this game. I decided to let the then slim value ride
and indeed it rode me right into the ground. Carr got off to a horrible start,
and the Panthers' ground game never got going either. Even the Saints' secondary
was able to make enough plays to keep the Panthers from scoring in the second
half when they knew the pass was coming. The Over still had a good chance, needing
only 5 points in the 4th quarter for the win, but of course neither team scored
a single point in the 4th.

1 Unit: Panthers +3/Loser
1/2 Unit: Over 41/Loser
1/3 Unit: No 3 Unanswered Scores/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Washington 17 -- Tampa Bay 24
Actual Final Score:______Washington 13 -- Tampa Bay 19

Jeff Garcia left very early in this game with an injury, and all 19 points the
Bucs scored in the first half came on drives that started on the 50 or in
Washington territory. My second half O/U line was 13, so I forced to take the
Under 17.5 second half play and hope for 15 to 17 second half points for the
middle with the game O/U plays. The Bucs did nothing with Gradkowski at QB in
the 3rd quarter as the Redskins crept back into the game. Garcia came back
into the game in the 4th quarter for a couple of 3 and outs as the Bucs were
not doing much besides trying to protect their 6 point lead. At 19-13, my $$$
was going to come out near the same whether the Redskins got the late TD and
the 19-20 victory or not, but I was hoping for them to fail to help my ATS
record with the Bucs -3, plus there was always a chance the Bucs could come
back and win after the Redskins scored anyway, which would make me a loser for
the game. None of this interests you I'm sure, end of story, lol.

1 Unit: Bucs -3/Winner
1/2 Unit: Over 36.5/Loser
1/2 Unit: Over 37/Loser
1 Unit: Under 17.5 2nd half/Winner
1/4 Unit: Bucs -2.5/Over 18.5 1st half parlay/Winner


Final Score Prediction:__San Francisco 14 -- Arizona 23
Actual Final Score:______San Francisco 37 -- ARizone 31

Two weeks ago the Cardinals won on the road forcing turnovers versus the Bengals
in spite of being seriously outgained in yardage and yards per play. The 49ers
returned the karmic favor by beating the Cardinals in the same fashion. The
Cardinals outgained the 49ers 552 to 374 yards, while averaging a whopping 7.17
yards per play (a season best) versus 5.58. It was the 2 interceptions and 2
fumbles lost that did them in, as the 49ers committed no turnovers in the game.
Kurt Warner, in what has become expected fashion, was stripped in the endzone
in OT and the 49ers fell on the ball for the win. The Cardinals were really hurt
by not having defenders Bertrand Berry (IR), Adrian Wilson and Aaron Francisco for
this game, as the 49ers were able to get their season high in both passing AND
rushing yards in this game. The Cardinals have given up big yards in the 2 games
they've been without Berry and Wilson.

This game started with some good luck -- the 49ers scoring the tying TD with 34 seconds
left in the 1st quarter to win the first quarter bet, but ended with bad luck
when Frank Gore scored on a 35 yard touchdown run with 1:25 left in the game. That
touchdown made it 21 points scored in the second half, pushing my second half
Under 21 bet which went on to lose when the Cardinals got the inevitable field goal
to tie the game with a couple of seconds left on the clock.

1/2 Unit: 49ers +3 1st quarter/Winner
1 Unit: Under 21 2nd half/Loser
1/2 Unit: Under 38/Loser


Final Score Prediction:__Baltimore 12 -- San Diego 26
Actual Final Score:______Baltimore 14 -- San Diego 32

Followed the script, with the added bonus of some luck in the form of only 3
4th quarter points to bring home the second half Under 19.5. I was worried when
the Chargers had it 1st and 10 at the Baltiore 30 midway through the 4th, but
after two penalties they were back at the 50 and just ran the ball all 3
downs to eat the clock. Knowing that the Chargers tend to be very conservative
with a lead played a small role in making the second half Under bet.

Phillip Rivers had a pretty good game after struggling in the last couple -- something
opposing QBs have been able to do against the Ravens' secondary lately.

1/2 Unit: Chargers -8.5/Winner
1/2 Unit: Under 38.5/Loser
1 Unit: Under 19.5 2nd half/Winner
1/3 Unit: No Score Last 2 Minutes of 1st half/Loser
1/2 Unit: Ravens' Team Total Under 14.5/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Philadelphia 17 -- New England 34
Actual Final Score:______Philadelphia 28 -- New England 31

Not many seemed to have faith in the Eagles this last week. The Books set an
increasingly higher/ridiculous line and were still able to snare a craters load
worth of Patriot money in this contest. The Eagles were simply too good of a
team to face a point spread this large. The Eagles coming up a little bit short
at the end of the game was still disappointing as I had a 1/6 Unit unposted ML
play on them that would've paid off very nicely, lol. Still, I'm glad to have
had a good Sunday Night game for once this season. I'd said that I'd prefer to
have AJ Feeley play this game, and boy did that hold true. No way McNabb
would've had the same amount of success in this game. He needs to sit for the
rest of the year and see how his leg is next year. And can you believe that the
Patriots actually failed to convert some 3rd and 4th downs? Crazy, eh?
Not really, it was bound to happen sooner rather than later, but it was still
cause for celebration every time it happened, lol.

1 Unit: Eagles +22/Winner
1/2 Unit: Under 52/Loser
1/2 Unit: Eagles +14.5 2nd half (-125)/Winner
1/2 Unit: Eagles' Team Total Over 13.5/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Miami 10 -- Pittsburgh 27
Actual Final Score:______Miami 0 --- Pittsburgh 3

A bittersweet end to week 12, as I made money in this game but left more on
the table. I had to leave the house a couple of hours prior to kickoff and
didn't know if I'd be back before the game started. I'd made the Under 43 bet
early in the week, and watched the number drop steadily throughout the week.
The last forecast I saw before I left said the rain would be abating with
minimal wind during the game. This put my final O/U line for the game at 40,
so I decided to go for the middle with the Over 38 then available. I hadn't
seen any video of the field, and it ended up costing me. I had no idea that
Heinz Field was going to be in such miserable condition. When I got back
home and saw the field condition before kickoff I was cursing myself for having
gone for the middle, as it seemed highly unlikely this game would reach the
30's on such a horrible field. At the very least, I got half of the unit back
by betting the second half Under 14.5. I really thought they'd hang a number
like 10.5 in the second half after a scoreless first. I was pretty sure that
Miami wasn't going to score a touchdown in the second half barring a hugely
big play, so I wasn't worried about a 7-7 2nd half score turning the Under 14.5
into a loser.

It was a very frustrating game to watch as I had Pittsburgh handicapped to cover
the spread. Had I known the field was going to be that miserable, I surely
would've lowered the point spread along with the total. Still, if you ran this
game again in the same conditions Pittsburgh would have a good chance to cover the
-16, as they were in Miami territory at least 10 times and only got 3 points
for their efforts, as every good drive was stopped short by a penalty or turnover.
Very frustrating as I only had Pittsburgh -3 left to finish off a 13 point
teaser. Oh well, the teaser ended up pushing, and I still made a 1/2 unit on the
game -- but like I said, it should've been more, as the known universe made
good money by hitting the Under and Miami once they saw what the field was like.

1 Unit: Under 43/Winner
1 Unit: Over 38/Loser
1/2 Unit: under 14.5 2nd half/Winner

Week #12 Teasers:
1.5 Units: Jaguars -0.5, Chargers -2.5/Winner
1 Unit: Min.+20, KC+7.5, Dal. -1,Pitts. -3/Push

Week #12: Game Sides: +3.9/Game Totals: -2.2/Teasers: +1.5
Halves: +4.6/Quarters: +0.5/Props n' Parlays: +2.0

Week #12: +10.2 Units

***Year to Date***
Game Sides: +15.9/Game Totals: +4.6/Teasers: +4.1
Halves: +4.4/Quarters: +1.0/Props n' Parlays: +2.8

YTD: +32.7 Units, +10.61% ROI, Average bet size = .77 Units, +42.7 average bets

Week #13 Recommended Plays

I didn't post my recommended plays here last week (and a huge week it was), but I'm going to try and be more diligent about posting them immediately to the blog for interested parties.

Week #13 Recommended Plays:

1 Unit:

Bucs +3.5
Carolina -3
Giants/Bears Under 42.5
Patriots -20
Eagles -3
Redskins -5
Bears +2
Colts/Jaguars Over 44.5
Colts -1/Cowboys -0.5 Teaser
Redskins +7.5/Chargers +8.5/Panthers +10.5/Bucs+16 Teaser
Steelers/Bengals Under 48
Colts -6.5
Falcons +3.5
Falcons/Rams Under 42
Redskins +7.5/Jets +14.5/Bears +14.5/Patriots -7 Teaser

3/4th Unit:

Raiders/Broncos Over 41.5
Vikings -3 (-125)
Broncos -3.5
Redskins/Bills Under 37.5

1/2 Unit:
Bengals +7.5
Saints/Bucs Over 21 1st half
Cards/Browns Over 51
Chargers -5.5
Patriots/Ravens Under 50.5


1/3 Unit: Falcons ML +165

Props -- 1/2 Unit each:

Team will score first: Redskins/Eagles/Panthers
1st score in game will be a TD: Bears/Chiefs (high winds bad for kickin')
No score 1st 7:30 of game: Redskins/Panthers/Bears/Chiefs

***Sunday Morning Plays***

3/4th Unit:

Chiefs/Chargers Under 17.5 1st half (windy, cold)
Eagles/Seahawks Over 19.5 1st half (light rain, not windy)
Eagles/Seahawks Over 39

1/2 Unit:

Redskins/Bills Under 17.5 1st half
Bears/Giants Over 39 (wind 10 mph or less now - 1/2 middle try)
Bengals/Steelers Over 19.5 1st half (field will be at its' best in 1st half,
Bengals will want to score their points then - partial middle try)
Colts' Team Total Over 13.5 1st half
Colts' Team Total Over 26
49ers' Team Total Under 16
Broncos' Team Total Over 22.5
Titans -3.5 (windy and wet may limit Texan's pass attack, their run game is awful.)

My Final Lines for Week #12

Legend
Visiting Team Pointspread
Home Team Total

GreenBay -1
Detroit 48

NYJets +22
Dallas 46.5

Indianapolis -10
Atlanta 41

Denver +0.5
Chicago 41.5

Tennessee +5.5
Cincinatti 44.5

Buffalo +9.5
Jacksonville 38.5

Oakland +10.5
KansasCity 33

Houston +0
Cleveland 51.5

Seattle -5.5
SaintLouis 44.5

Minnesota -1.5
NYGiants 39.5

NewOrleans +0.5
Carolina 41.5

Washington +9.5
TampaBay 39.5

SanFrancisco +8.5
Arizona 37

Baltimore +13.5
SanDiego 38.5

Philadelphia +15
NewEngland 50

Miami +16.5
Pittsburgh 39.5

Week #12 Write-Ups, Lines and Values

Week #12 Write-Ups, Lines and Values

Lots of family time this holiday weekend = less time for write-ups, but we’re having fun so the tradeoff is worth it for the writer, lol. Off to a great start with the Turkey day plays as every 2^nd half play recommended by my line generator turned out to be a winner (the Under 21 Colts/Falcons 2^nd half was recommended, the Falcons +7 was not, and was what shot down the tiny “for fun” parlay in that game.).

Legend

Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value

Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

Denver/+1.5/0/Denver 3.9% value

Chicago/41/42/Over 2.0% value

The Bears’ backsliding continued last week and now face a revitalized Bronco team hungry for wins to keep them in the playoff hunt. The anemic Bears’ run game will have a hard time challenging Denvers’ “poor but improving” run defense, and Grossman is likely to throw two or three picks in the Windy City versus a still decent Denver secondary. Jay Cutler showed on national tv last week that he has the game to pick up big yards versus good pass defenses, and this week gets Javon Walker back at WR. The Bears will need to get good pressure on Cutler or the Broncos may cruise to another 14 point victory like they did versus the Titans last week. Travis Henry has just been downgraded to doubtful, and the line is rebounding from +1.5 to +2, but I hardly think it will matter as long as Selvin Young is healthy enough to at least split carries with Hall.

Final Score Prediction: Denver 21 – Chicago 20

Tennessee/-1.5/+4.5/Cincinatti 13.0% value

Cincinatti/46.5/44/Under 5.3% value

The Titans are on the road for the second straight week, and I see little reason why Carson Palmer and Co. can’t carve up the Titan defense like the Broncos did last week – Palmer and Cutler have near identical QB ratings. The Bengal offensive line is probably weaker than Denvers’, as is their running game, but they’ll still get the home victory coming into this one as an underdog. The line opened as a pick, and once again the early money came in on the Titans. I’m not sure why everyone is so enamored with a team that starts a QB with a 64.3 rating. On ESPN you always hear how the Titans have the 4^th best running game in the league. You know what? That’s total crap. Just because they have the 4^th highest average of rushing yards per game does not make them the team with the 4^th best running game. That the biggest sports network in the world still relies on using the totally misleading category of total yards for its’ statistics is beyond ridiculous. The Titans’ average exactly 4 yards per carry, which is right on the league average, and the only reason they’re even “average” is because of Vince Young’s scrambles. Vince has averaged 4.4 yards per “run.” Their top back, LenDale White, averages 3.5 yards per run. Chris Brown does have a 5.2 ypc average, but he’s missed nearly half the season with injury and only has 20 more rushing yards than VY. Chris Henry, the rookie RB, looks to be suspended again.

This week the Titans’ will be without Benji Olson, RG, again, so that’s a blow to their offensive line. Nick Harper, CB, has returned to practice, though still “?”. Albert Haynesworth, DT, is still “?” after missing a second week, and this team doesn’t look capable of winning games on the road without him right now. The good news for the Titans is that they’ll be up against a soft Bengal defense, but the Bengals will surely put more men in the box and force VY to beat them through the air like Denver did last week. VY made a lot of good throws, but when the 4^th quarter came calling and the Titans needed to make up a deficit, he had some lousy throws that resulted in interceptions that ended the game for them. I see the same thing happening to them again this week.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 24 – Titans 20

Buffalo/-8/-10.5/Jacksonville 6.4% value

Jacksonville/36.5/38.5/Over 5.3% value

Jacksonville has been known to thoroughly wax inferior opponents from time to time at home, and all the signs for this game point to blow out potential. The Bills will once again be without Marshawn Lynch at RB. The Bills only opportunity to win this game will be with JP Losman and the air attack. The Jaguars have been susceptible to teams that throw the ball well, and have some fresh injuries that will help out the Bills. Mike Peterson, the Jags’ stud middle linebacker, broke his hand last week and is out indefinitely. Rashean Mathis, a starting CB, strained his groin last week and is “?”, leaning toward doubtful right now. Reggie Nelson, starting safety, was “?” on the injury reports earlier in the week but is not showing up now, so I assume he’s been upgraded to probable. If the Buffalo defense ends up spending a lot of time on the field like they did last week, they’re bound to be completely blown off the line again late in the game by the Jacksonville running game. Jacksonville typically has a running game that gets stronger the more they wear the opponent down, so there’s nothing to indicate that the Bills will be able to slow the Jags down at any point of this game really, as David Garrard has been outstanding this year as the Jags’ QB with a 104.6 QB rating and no interceptions thrown in 2007. The Jaguars should cruise to an easy victory like they did versus the Chargers last week, and the potential for a 20 point victory is certainly present.

Final Score Prediction: Buffalo 14 – Jacksonville 24

Oakland/+5.5/+9/Kansas City 10.6% value

Kansas City/34.5/32/Under 6.8% value

The Raiders’ best chance to hang around in this game will be with the running game, but it’ll be no easy task versus a better than average Chiefs’ run defense. One third downs or whenever the Raiders take to the air, it’ll be even tougher going as they have one of the worst pass games in the league and face a better than average pass defense that pressures the opposing QB well. The Chiefs’ offensive line has been pretty lousy as well, which is why they’ve had an ineffective run game and given up sacks all year. At least in their favor is the fact that the Raiders don’t get consistent pressure on opposing QBs and don’t defend the run very well either. The Chiefs are down to starting a rookie RB and their rookie QB Croyle in this game, but the biggest edge in this game goes to the Chiefs’ defense versus the Raider offense, and my spreadsheet predicts a comfortable victory for the home team. Four Janikowski field goals will not be enough for the Raiders.

Final Score Prediction: Raiders 12 – Chiefs 21

Houston/+3/+1/Houston 4.0% value

Cleveland/51/51/No value

Both teams feature potent passing attacks with a big running back to pick up the short yardage when necessary. Ahman Green will be out at RB for the Texans again, but his absence won’t hurt them much as this will be a pass-dominated game. The Texans have an even shot at winning this road game as they bring a superior pass offense and total defense to Cleveland. The only area in this game in which the Browns are superior is with the run offense, but it’s not nearly enough of an edge to ride to victory, as the run games will sit in the sidecar as this game zips down the road.

Final Score Prediction: Houston 27 – Cleveland 28

Seattle/-3/-4.5/Seattle 3.4% value

Saint Louis/44.5/43.5/Under 2.2% value

The Rams will be back in their element this week, but will it be enough to be at home? The Seahawks have had the far more consistent passing game this year, though their QB comes into this game having missed practice time an injury, though it looks as if he’ll be largely unaffected and is definitely going to start. With Stephen Jackson back in the lineup the Rams aren’t the sitting ducks they used to be. The Rams’ offensive line always seems to get a new guy injured just when somebody is coming back, and this week is no different. Their poor offensive line play could once again lead to Seattle getting tremendous pressure on Bulger like they did in the game they played earlier this year. Ultimately, I think that will be the difference maker. Hasselbeck has had good protection in the pocket this year and consistently finds the open receiver, while Bulger has been constantly harried and will probably will be again this Sunday.

Final Score Prediction: Seattle 24 – Saint Louis 20

Minnesota/+7/-1/Minnesota 20.5% value

NY Giants/40/39.5/Under 1.7% value

This game features, by far, the biggest mismatch in the running game on the entire card this week. Brandon Jacobs will be out for the game, so the Giants will have to rely on the “just returning from injury” Derrick Ward and Reuben Droughns to get yards versus the number one rush defense in the league. The Giants will be without one of their top linebackers for the rest of the season, Mathias Kiwanuka. Adrian Peterson has actually been upgraded to “?”, but I’m going to list him as doubtful anyway, because I have enough line value on the Vikings as it is. T. Jackson had one of his best games at QB in his young career last week, and will only need an average game to help his team to a close road victory. The Giants continue to be one of the most overrated teams in the league, as they’re just average defensively and have a sub-par NFL quarterback with Eli Manning. As it’ll be tough going running the ball for them this week, Eli may not be able to pass the team to victory – so yeah, don’t be surprised if the Giants go down as a 7 point home favorite this week.

Final Score Prediction: Minnesota 21 – NY Giants 20

New Orleans/-2.5/+1.5/Carolina 9.6% value

Carolina/41.5/41.5/No value

Reggie Bush is listed as “?” after missing practice time this week, but he’ll probably end up playing anyway as usual. The complete lack of offensive balance will hurt the Saints again this week versus a decent Panther defense. The Panthers will be without Chris Gamble, CB, which will hurt. On the plus side they’ll get Steve Smith back at WR. By my calculations, the Panthers will be able to average almost as many yards per pass attempt as the Saints this week because of the Saints’ poor pass defense. The Panthers have a big advantage in the running game, and will be able to run it right up the gut versus a Saints’ run defense that was pretty solid until they suffered injuries on their defensive line. The Saints will be without two of their four defensive tackles. The strong run-first option the Panthers possess in this game will give Testaverde the luxury of finding open receivers when he utilizes the play-action fake. With shorter down and distance yardages, the Panthers should be able to grind out a fair number of scoring drives, while the Saints will have many failed drives because of the boom or bust offense they’re forced to use without a good running game.

Final Score Prediction: New Orleans 20 – Carolina 23

Washington/+3.5/+7.5/Tampa Bay 10.7% value

Tampa Bay/38/40.5/Over 6.7% value

Jason Campbell looked impressive with many good completions versus the Dallas defense last week. The Bucs actually have a better pass defense than the Cowboys, so it may be tough to have a repeat performance for a second straight road game. The Bucs also have a good run defense and should be up to the task of keeping the Redskins’ run game from breaking out this game.

Jeff Garcia just had to manage the game versus the Falcons after the game after the Bucs got out to the big early lead. He only completed 11 of 21 passes, but with the big td strike to Galloway he averaged a healthy 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The Bucs will probably have to rely more on his passing this week, as Michael Pittman is down again with an injury after only making his return last week. Ernest Graham, the RB who has filled in nicely at RB since coming over to the Bucs will have to handle the bulk of the carries though he’s been a bit dinged up for the past week or two. The Redskins have a pretty good run defense, so the Bucs, with only one good back available, may look to attack the Redskins’ secondary that has suffered numerous injuries in the past few weeks. The Redskins’ secondary had been a pretty solid unit, but have now given up an average of 7.18 yards per pass attempt in their last 5 games when the aforementioned injuries started to accrue. This leads to the biggest mismatch in the game and a home victory for the Bucs.

Final Score Prediction: Washington 17 – Tampa Bay 24

San Francisco/+10.5/+9/San Francisco 4.6% value

Arizona/38/37/Under 2.0% value

The Cardinals come into this game after a big road win versus the Bengals in which they won courtesy of 4 interceptions after being outgained by almost a full yard per offensive play for the course of the game. The 49ers with Dilfer at QB showed a little bit of a spark last week, but couldn’t turn any of those sparks into a touchdown flame and suffered another defeat as a result. The Cardinals will be without Pro Bowl safety Adrian Wilson again, and have a few other injuries to their defense as well. The 49ers’ defense continues to play pretty well in losing efforts, and actually have a pretty good match up this week with their secondary versus the Cardinal pass attack. If the 49er offense can get anything going in this game there’s a chance they can hang with the Cardinals, but that’s still a pretty order as the Cardinals have been pretty tough at home this year.

Final Score Prediction: San Francisco 14 – Arizona 23

Baltimore/+9/+13.5/San Diego 11.7% value

San Diego/38.5/38/Under 1.2% value

I just saw Ray Lewis on tv sporting a hoodie with some kind of teamwork inspirational slogan on it, but this team has to be feeling deflated after the heartbreaking loss to Cleveland last week. Now they travel from coast to coast and face a San Diego team that has played pretty well at home. The last time Baltimore’s sputtering offense visited the west coast they scored nine points versus the 49ers. Nine points won’t get it done in this game. Boller can stretch the field more than McNair, and did make some big plays in the second half versus the Browns last week – but was the Browns, and they have one of the worst secondaries in the league. One half of offensive production will also not get it done versus the Chargers. I’d put the Chargers down for a couple of picks in this game versus a Ravens team that will probably be playing from behind in the second half.

All eyes are on Phillip Rivers as he’s just not playing up to expectations this year. He doesn’t seem to be handling the blitz well this year and has had poor field vision. This could be a problem versus a Baltimore defense that likes to bring the heat. One would hope that even a coach as mediocre as Norv Turner will have a good game plan in place to counter the Ravens’ aggressiveness. The Chargers will really need to get LT going in this game to take Rivers out of obvious passing downs. It won’t be easy, but all in all the Chargers should find enough offensive success to beat a Ravens team that will struggle for any offensive points in this game. One key turnover by the Ravens may lead to an easy Charger score and give them the comfortable two touchdown win.

Projected Final Score: Baltimore 12 – San Diego 26

Philadelphia/+24/+13.5/Philadelphia 21.0% value

New England/50.5/50/Under 0.9% value

McNabb will sit this one out, but I say good riddance. Feeley has had a better QB rating in the limited game time he’s seen over the last two years. The extra mobility will come in handy versus a Patriots’ defense that brings blitzes from all angles. I guess it’s pointless to point out why I think the Eagles will cover this game, as no one seems to believe that will happen, lol. But here’s one completely stupid reason. The Patriots have only beaten half of their opponents by more than 21 points, so don’t the Eagles at least have a 50/50 chance of covering this number?

Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia 17 – New England 34

Miami/+16/+15.5/Miami 1.1% value

Pittsburgh/40.5/38.5/Under 5.4% value

Miami will have a hard time cracking ten points this game, but may cover anyway, as I’m becoming increasingly less impressed with the Steelers’ offensive play calling. The Dolphins, already without Ronnie Brown at RB, may also be without his back up, Chatman, this week. He’s listed as “?” but will probably play if it’s a borderline situation because they’ll need something out of the backfield to take the pressure off of man-rookie QB John Beck who’ll be making his second career start on the road. In his first game last week wasn’t very impressive versus an average Eagles’ secondary. This week he faces the number one pass defense in the league, so good luck, John. Even without Polamalu in at safety, the Steelers have the ability to shut out the Dolphins in this game if they don’t give up any short fields. I’ll be very surprise if the Steelers don’t hold up their end of the teaser bargain at -3 for a second week in a row. This game has “Crush and Cruise” written all over it. The Steelers will acquire points through the first half and part way into the third, then go into clock-killing mode for the remainder of the game.

Final Score Prediction: 27 – Dolphins 10

Turkey Day Write-Ups and Lines

Week #12 Lines, Write-Ups and Final Score Predictions (Thursday games only for now)

Legend

Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value

Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

Green Bay/-3.5/-0.5/Detroit 6.2% value

Detroit/46.5/47/Over 1.3% value

Green Bay comes into this game red hot, while the Lions have struggled and lost in their last two. When you balance the season statistics, Green Bay has a small advantage which is negated by the game being in Detroit. So the question is, what is momentum worth in this game? Clearly the line and betting action is shaded toward Green Bay because they’re the ones with the positive momentum right now. I rarely adjust my lines to reflect momentum, unless a particular major statistical category has showed real improvement for 4 games. I’ve adjusted my line 1.5 points in favor of Green Bay because with all of their receivers now healthy I feel that the normal injury bonuses they are receiving do not suffice. Momentum may count for less, though, as both teams will have hardly had any time to think from the end of the last game until the start of this one on Thursday. If any team is due for a letdown, it’s the Packers, who’ve been winning handily and have to travel to Detroit for Thanksgiving. Happy Turkey Day, don’t get shot. The Lions are surely pissed after last week’s home loss to the Giants – a game that the Giants didn’t win by dint of a great performance, they were just fortunate that the Lions couldn’t do jack-crap the deeper they got into Giants’ territory.

Even though the numbers show value on the Lions, I won’t bet them, lol. I’m not gonna’ put my $$$ against a sizzling pass attack that is facing an average pass defense (unless it’s the Eagles getting +22) on a small 3.5 point spread.

While my O/U line is very close to the actual number, I’d lean on the Over as this will be a pass-dominated game. Both teams have had health issues at RB and have not been able to get their ground games going with any consistency this year. The Lions’ offensive line has had major problems just keeping defenders off of Kitna’s back every play, let alone protecting a running back who is actually heading toward said defenders. In games where both teams will clearly have more success passing the ball than running I think a sense of panic can creep into whichever team happens to be losing at the time, and they’re quicker to abandon the run in an effort to keep up. The winning team, still enjoying the superior match-up they have in the passing game, will often just keep on passing, usually with the benefit of a more effective play-action. The Lions abandon the run the coin flip, usually, while the Packers will only favor it if they have a sizeable late game lead. I’m not sure historically how the O/Us have fared on Thanksgiving, but you’d think that the lineman on both sides of the ball will tire a little more easily and just kind of sit there tangled up on the pass rush, giving the QB more time to find a receiver. It’s a theory, but AIverson needs to look up the numbers on it, lol.

Key Injuries: Green Bay – Johnny Jolly, DT out/Ryan Grant, RB “?”/Nick Collins, Sa, out. Detroit – Idrees Bashir, Sa, IR/Travis Fisher, CB, “?”

Final Score Prediction: Green Bay 27 – Detroit 24 (Crosby kicks the FG in OT. It’s okay, the Detroit fans are used to being disappointed while stuffing themselves with stuffing.)

New York Jets/+14/+22/Cowboys 16.7% value

Dallas/47.5/46.5/Under 1.6% value

The Jets outcoached and outplayed the Steelers last week to score the upset at home. The party was short-lived as they have to travel to Dallas for a Thursday game. The Dallas pass defense was pretty awful versus a Redskins team that had several injuries at the WR position. Santana Moss, who I thought would be gimpy in that game, ended up looking pretty unaffected and a really good game, helping the Redskins cover the spread.

The Jets’ defense might as well blitz away in this game as well, because they’re at a huge disadvantage in defending both the pass and run versus the Cowboys. They’ll want to take chances like they did versus the Steelers in an attempt to get the big drive-ending play. Bad defenses should gamble with aggression when they’re clearly outmatched, it just makes sense. Tony Romo is a lot better at avoiding the sack then Big Ben, though, and even more capable of making the Jets pay with a big play, so it should be an exciting game when the Cowboys have the ball. The Cowboys may choose to pound Barber and Jones at the soft Jets’ defensive line more than they normally would, particularly if Patrick Crayton, WR, ends up missing the game (good chance he will miss). The Cowboys are not deep at receiver. After Owens and Crayton there is Sam Hurd with 10 catches, and that’s about it. Isaiah Stanback, rookie, should be back from an injury, but he’s been out all year, as has Terry Glenn. Other than that there’s second year man Miles Austin with zero receptions. But anyway you look at it, the Cowboys should be able to exploit anything the Jets’ defense throws at them. I expect the Cowboys to run first, then burn them with the big YAC when they find single coverage.

As the Jets will be playing from behind all game, it’ll fall on the shoulders of Kellen Clemens to make enough plays to generate scoring drives. The Cowboys, in spite of looking pretty poor at pass defense last week, give up an average of 5.6 yards per pass attempt, which is pretty good; a half yard better than league average. So Clemens will be putting his 59.2 QB rating up on the visitors’ Thanksgiving table for the Cowboys to devour. After last week, I think the Cowboys will be pretty hungry to eat this kid up. If the Cowboys don’t wait until the end of the first half to score their first points this week, this game will back-door proofed by the time the final 6 minutes are played.

Key Injuries: Jets – Dewayne Robertson, DT, “?”/Eric Smith, Sa, “?”/L. Coles, WR, doubtful – Cowboys – Patrick Crayton, “?”

Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 35 – Jets 13

Indianapolis/-11.5/-10/Atlanta 3.4% value

Atlanta/41/41/No value

The Colts’ lack of depth at wide receiver nearly cost them for a third straight week, but they eked out a 3 point home victory versus the offensively challenged Chiefs. The situation doesn’t look a whole lot better this week. They’ll have Dallas Clark back again, though he had the same amount of catches as Utecht last week (3), while Utecht had almost twice as many yards. The Colts were pretty deep at TE with Clark, Utecht and Fletcher to begin with, but with Fletcher missing last game and being questionable for this one, Clark will have to carry his usual load in the passing game. Aaron Morehead just got IR’d, but Anthony Gonzalez will see playing time while recovering from his broken hand. How recovered is the hand? I don’t know, but it could affect his ability to catch the ball. That leaves Reggie Wayne as the only good, healthy receiver for the Colts. The Colts may very well under perform on offense again this week, even against the Falcons. They’re a dome team playing in a dome tomorrow, but the crowd noise will be up when he’s on offense (as long as the game stays semi-close), so who knows, maybe they’ll be some miscommunication with all of the audibles to some of the less experienced guys. Have you seen the latest commercial at “Joe’s Café” about Peyton Manning and his audibles? Freakin’ hilarious, I love that commercial.

Bobby Petrino, in a rare moment of lucidity, reinstated Joey Harrington as the starting QB this week. I have the Colts’ pass defense rated second best, so the Falcons will probably favor the run game with Dunn and Norwood for as long as they can. Those two backs may wish it was Colonel Sanders playing safety for the Colts instead of Bob after he gets to them a few times. They’ll be like, “Damn, we’re already eating turkey today, we don’t need no chicken too,” lol. Apologies for the random humor.

As the softer part of the Falcons’ defense is stopping the run, I expect the Colts to run ball with Addai and Keith a lot this game. The Falcons will be hard pressed to slow down the Colts’ offense enough to have a shot at winning this game, as their defense is average to poor across the board. As the Colts will have more success in both the running and passing games (the kicking may be a wash as Morten “The Mummy” Anderson is probably as good as Adam “Ghost of Vanderjagt” Vinatieri right now), they should cruise to a ten point victory on the road.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 26 – Falcons 16

Week #11 Recap

Week #11 Recap

“Teaser Megabucks”

I went a little nuts on the teasers this past week, sinking units into a myriad of plays in an attempt to hit the high reward of a high risk/reward megabucks machine. After plunking in my units and pulling the handle, I watched the reels spin, and spin, and spin (hey, 10 hours of spinning is a lot), until finally registering a cherry on the first reel (5 of the 7 plays still alive, the losers coming via the low point production in the Houston/NO (2 points short) and Philly/Miami (4 points short) games). One of the losers was the only less than 1 Unit play, so the potential for a good profit was still there. The closest scare in the morning games for the teasers? The Colts. Vinatieri misses 2 field goals and the Colts squeak by with a 3 point home victory, just covering the -2 13 point tease. Okay, so it was kind of grayed-out cherry, not an actual guarantee of some money back, as none of the teasers were complete yet, but a strong promise with a 2 and 3 team teaser needing only the Steelers versus the hapless Jets. Reel #2 comes along and it’s a total blank. I mean, it was like all the reel had to do was correctly line itself up with any random plum or 7 and I’m guaranteed a profit – but no, it gets stuck in between any actual symbol as the Jets pull off the improbable upset after trailing by 3 points with less than 3 minutes to play and the Steelers having the ball near mid-field. So, the cherry is mostly grayed-out still as one teaser is a winner, but 4 are now losers. Looking at what remains for the 2 still-working teasers brightens the cherry considerably, as they only need the Pats -1.5 and Pats -2. So the final reel comes to a rest and shows the “10x, jackpot – if you had the first two reels lined up you would now receive a monster payoff” kind of symbol. Nope, the second reel was a bust so I end up 3-4 on the teasers down 1.5 Units after the stiff juice incurred on all plays. So close to the big payday, but it’s the nature of big teasers to stiff you with one upset, so c’est la vie.

Overtime = Sudden Death (to any plays working in the game)

By the time the Browns/Ravens game sloppily scored its’ way into Overtime, the only bets I had working were a small Ravens ML play and a Browns +0.5 2^nd half bet that only wins if the Browns score a touchdown in OT, lol. Let’s not even mention the Phil Dawson pinball shot that got it to OT after the Browns got the ball back on their 42 with 19 seconds left…ridiculous. That Ravens’ victory was just not meant to be, lol. So yeah, the Browns of course get the FG in OT for a win that makes me a loser on every bet for the game (barring the un-posted 1^st half Under play that won as my only un-posted play of the week, lol). The other OT game was the Jets/Steelers fiasco. The Steelers actually had a shot after holding the Jets to a punt after the Jets had the first possession, but promptly went 3 and out, gave up a huge punt return to Leon Washington, and a field goal for the loss not long after. A 4.5 unit swing if the Steelers can just manage the 3 point victory. Ouch. Well, I guess that OT loss wasn’t the death of every play, as I was still able to cash a 13 point teaser that Pittsburgh +4.5 on it. I’m surprised Leon Washington didn’t return the punt for a touchdown to kill that play as well, lol.

The Grand Salami

I made a really simple mistake that cost me 3/4ths of a Unit with the Grand Salami bet – I failed to consider that the Patriots, as a road team, were capable of killing the Home Teams -28 bet singlehandedly, which they did. The home teams were actually outscored by 4 points this past week, but if you take away the Patriots game the home teams outscore the away teams by 38, which covers the -28, lol. The Grand Salami bets will keep an eye on where the Patriots are playing from now on, lol.

Final Score Prediction:__San Diego 20 – Jacksonville 23

Actual Final Score:_____San Diego 17 – Jacksonville 24

This one was actually never in doubt as the Jaguars had a nice lead most of the way and the Chargers only had one chance to tie the game after getting the ball back with 1:34 left and the whole field to go. I predicted the Chargers wouldn’t be able to win with smoke and mirrors versus the Jaguars, and that proved to be true as Garrard continued his perfect record of no interceptions and the Chargers were unable to get any touchdown returns.

3/4^th Unit: Jaguars -3/Winner

3/4^th Unit: Over 40/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Kansas City 14 – Indianapolis 28

Actual Final Score:_____Kansas City 10 – Indianapolis 13

The usually sure-footed Adam Vinatieri seems to be suffering from the Vanderjagt-Colt curse as of late. If he doesn’t get his head on straight soon he’ll be released at the end of the year, but not picked up by the Cowboys as they seem to have a decent kicker now, lol. If you can’t consistently make field goals, you sure as hell better to able to put the ball into the endzone on kickoffs…

The Chiefs’ defense did their job and put the team into position to win the game, but the Chiefs’ offense were in a tough spot starting Brodie Croyle for the first time versus one of the best defenses in the league on the road and ultimately couldn’t get the points necessary.

½ Unit: Under 44/Winner

½ Unit: Over 42/Loser

½ Unit: 1^st half Under 21.5/Winner

Final Score Prediction:__Oakland 14 – Minnesota 24

Actual Final Score:_____Oakland 22 – Minnesota 29

My “Surprise Over of the Week” was cashed by halftime, but I gave it back with the 2^nd half Over that came up 7 points short, lol. Still a good game as the Vikings’ ground game rolled big time as predicted. 4 1^st half turnovers killed the Vikings -3 1^st half play, but set me up to double down with another 1 Unit on the Vikings -3 2^nd half, so it worked out alright in the end. T. Jackson had his first decent game as QB for the Vikings, completing 17 of 22 for 171 yards, no TDs, 1 INT. If he can continue to improve, the Vikings will have a good shot of making the playoffs next year. I figured Culpepper would have to throw it a lot to try and keep up in this game (while attacking the weaker part of the Vikings’ defense), and did he ever, as Oakland attempted 39 passes versus 24 runs, while racking up 344 passing yards.

1 Unit: Vikings -5.5/Winner

3/4^th Unit: Over 35.5/Winner

½ Unit: Vikings -3 1^st half/Loser

1 Unit: Vikings -3 2^nd half/Winner

3/4^th Unit: Over 20 2^nd half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:__Cleveland 23 – Baltimore 21

Actual Final Score:_____Cleveland 33 – Baltimore 30 (OT)

The Ravens certainly didn’t deserve to win this game after putting up only 7 points in the first half courtesy of a Ray Lewis pick 6, but there they were with a 3 point lead kicking off with 26 seconds or so left in the game. Wisely, they kicked it to Joshua Cribbs because, hey, he’s never done squat on kickoff returns, has he? The Ravens escorted him downfield while letting the clock run, before finally deciding to stop him with 19 seconds left. The Browns complete a nice pass, and instead of trying to keep the man in bounds while not tackling him so the clock runs out, they go right ahead and tackle him, god forbid they’d actually do something intelligent even once in this game. Phil Dawson’s “Stuffed by the Stanchion” kick is finally ruled good after a 5 minute tea break, and the Browns carry the momentum into the OT and get the win.

To win ½ Unit: Ravens ML/Loser

½ Unit: Browns +0.5 2^nd half/Loser

½ Unit: Under 21 2^nd half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:__Pittsburgh 27 – NY Jets 14

Actual Final Score:_____Pittsburgh 16 – NY Jets 19

I guess the Steelers do suck on the road after all, but c’mon – the Jets only had 7 sacks for the entire season coming into this game. They doubled their season production by sacking Big Ben 7 times. I give credit to the Jets’ coaches for this victory. They had an aggressive defensive game plan, realizing they’d need to take chances and not allow the Steelers to wear them down with numerous lengthy drives. Mission accomplished.

1 Unit: Steelers -9/Loser

½ Unit: Over 20 1^st half/Push

¼ Unit Pitts and Over 1^st half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:___Tampa Bay 21 – Atlanta 16

Actual Final Score:______Tampa Bay 31 – Atlanta 7

The Bucs covered as expected, but I didn’t expect this kind of a shellacking. Leftwich has been horrible in the pocket when he’s played this year. His big arm hasn’t been strong enough to hold onto the ball when defenders get to him, and has been prone to misfires when he actually gets rid of the ball in the way he intended. The Bucs’ defense is generally opportunistic, opportunity knocked, the Falcons got rocked. It was mighty kind of the Falcons to at least chip in with 7 points at the end of the game (thanks to Joey Harrington) as the Bucs were still 5 points shy of covering the Over by themselves.

1 Unit: Bucs -3/Winner

½ Unit: Over 35.5/Winner

Final Score Prediction:___Arizona 24 – Cincinatti 27

Actual Final Score:______Arizona 35 – Cincinatti 27

The Bengals’ outgained the Cardinals 5.42 ypp to 4.49. That’s almost a full yard better on every single play. Unfortunately for Carson Palmer, he was throwing very catchable balls, 3 of which went to Antrel Rolle of the Cardinals, who returned all 3 of them for touchdowns, though the last one was called back due to a dubious call on one of his teammates for blocking Mr. Palmer after the ball was picked. This was a game Cincinnati should have won, but it’s starting to become old hat for them to lose such games.

½ Unit: Cards/Bengals Under 24.5 1^st half/Loser

½ Unit: Cards/Bengals Over 48.5/Winner

Final Score Prediction:___Miami 13 – Philadelphia 29

Actual Final Score:______Miami 7 -- Philadelphia 17

Donovan McNabb got off to a slow start in this game, with 3 completions and 2 interceptions in 9 throws. It was probably fortunate for the Eagles that he left with an injury, as Jay Feeley in relief gave them a spark with some good QBing and led them to a 17-7 victory after being down 0-7. John “He gives us the best chance of winning right now…snicker” Beck was predictably poor overall in his rookie debut, but the Eagles could only manage to push the spread after such a slow start. When there were 9.5 and 10’s available on the board, I debated whether to pay juice for the 9.5, or get juice on the 10. In the end I went with the +juice, so of course the game landed right on the 10, lol.

1 Unit: Eagles -10/Push’

½ Unit: Over 40/Loser

1 Unit: Eagles -6.5 2^nd half/Winner

¼ Unit: Eagles & Over 1^st half parlay

Final Score Prediction:___New England 28 – Bills 14

Actual Final Score:______New England 52 – Bills 10

Odds are you going to win and cover the spread when you score a touchdown on every possession, including one on defense, until sometime during the 4^th quarter. I thought the cold would help the Under a little bit, and it did seem to cause a couple of easy drops by the Patriots early in the game, but the hope quickly evaporated as the Patriots converted on every third and fourth down they attempted. The Patriots gamely tried to help my 2^nd half Under and Bills’ bets by going for it on 4^th down, but the Bills didn’t want to see a good defensive streak of futility end, so they let them score. Another Sunday night suckfest.

1 Unit: Under 47/Loser

½ Unit: Bills +7.5 2^nd half/Loser

1 Unit: Under 23 2^nd half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:___Washington 16 – Dallas 31

Actual Final Score:______Washington 23 – Dallas 28

The Cowboys really only played the second half, and in spite of that were still covering with 5 minutes left to play. Jason Campbell had a really good game in spite of being short-handed of receivers, and converted a 4^th and 4 that led to the touchdown that stole away the Cowboy cover. The Cowboys didn’t get good pressure on Campbell, and their coverage was pretty soft downfield; a bad recipe for defending the pass. Maybe Andre Gurode will take a few extra practice shotgun snaps this week, as he seemed to be under the impression that if he hiked it back over the opponent’s crossbars he’d be awarded 3 points for a field goal. But yeah, back to Campbell – it was really a breakout game for him and a sign of probable good things to come for the Redskins’ offense.

1 Unit: Cowboys -10.5/Loser

½ Unit: Over 23.5 1^st half/Loser (wrong half bet, lol)

¼ Unit: Cowboys & Over 1^st half parlay/Loser

Final Score Prediction:___New Orleans 23 – Houston 27

Actual Final Score:______New Orleans 10 – Houston 23

Turnovers and failed 4^th down attempts didn’t help the Saints convert yards into points, so they ended up with a meager 10 in a game where both teams seemed guaranteed to make it into the 20s. Such a pitiful performance in point scoring caused me to lose a 4 team teaser by 2 points. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson’s return the lineup paid quick dividends in the form of a long touchdown strike in the first quarter. Reggie Bush continues to not impress, and made his second goal line fumble that I can think of this season.

1 Unit: Texans +2.5/Winner

1 Unit: Over 47/Loser

1 Unit: Under 50.5/Winner

½ Unit: Over 23.5 1^st half/Winner

¼ Unit: Texans and Over 1^st half parlay/Winner

1 Unit: Texans +0.5 2^nd half/Winner

Final Score Prediction:___Carolina 14 – Green Bay 27

Actual Final Score:______Carolina 17 – Green Bay 31

Green Bay got on the board first after returning a pooch punt 95 yards for a touchdown. Good thing, as it turns out, or they wouldn’t have covered the spread versus a Carolina team that showed a little bit of offensive moxie with Testaverde leading them to 2 second half touchdowns. It was too little, too late, as Favre and his incredibly deep group of receivers had what turned out to be in insurmountable lead. Ryan Grant, RB for Green Bay, sustained an injury in this game and is “?” versus Detroit on Thanksgiving. He’s been playing pretty well, but the Packers are a completely pass-first team at this point, so his impact is minimal.

1 Unit: Packers -10/Winner

½ Unit: Packers -3 2^nd half/Loser

½ Unit: Under 17.5 2^nd half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:___NYGiants 21 – Detroit 24

Actual Final Score:______NYGiants 16 – Detroit 10

The Lions had plenty of chances to win this game, but the sacks, dropped balls and turnovers all combined to take the roar out of their game. Kitna’s frustration is understandable, and I agree; it wasn’t so much that the Giants won the game, but that the Lions lost the game. The Lions outgained the Giants 376 to 341 yards, and killed them in average gain per play, 6.6 to 5.0. That’s a pretty large differential and you won’t often see a team losing with those numbers. It would’ve been a nice victory for my record and would’ve put me right near the top for the second week in a row at The Prediction Tracker . com, though I’m still top ten across all categories, more or less.

½ Unit: Under 50.5/Winner

½ Unit: 1^st half Under 24.5/Winner

¼ Unit: 1^st half Lions and Under parlay/Loser

½ Unit: Lions +2 1^st half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:___Saint Louis 17 – San Francisco 17

Actual Final Score:______Saint Louis 13 – San Francisco 9

This game came down to a couple of dropped balls as the 49ers found a way to keep their losing streak alive. The opening O/U of 41 was an early Christmas present from the books, and even though the Rams had scored a TD less than 5 minutes into the game, the rest of the game produced a whopping 15 more points. I should’ve bet the second half Under as well, but didn’t pull the trigger before the 3^rd quarter kicked off. Nolan was feeling generous toward my 49ers 2^nd half Pick bet when he decided to kick the field goal down 7 with less than 2 minutes to play, lol, turning what was a probably push into a winner. Even though I had the 49ers in a small ML play, I was actually rooting for them not to score at the very end of the game as I make more money with the “3 unanswered scores – No” bet which would’ve lost if the they get the end of the game winning touchdown. Once again targeting a 49ers game with some specific props paid dividends.

1 Unit: Under 41/Winner

1/3 Unit: 49ers ML/Loser

½ Unit: 3 Unanswered Scores – “No” +145/Winner

To win ½ Unit: No Score Last 2 Minutes of 1^st half +160/Winner

½ Unit: 49ers Pick 2^nd half/Winner

Final Score Prediction:___Chicago 17 – Seattle 21

Actual Final Score:______Chicago 23 – Seattle 30

The Bears lumbered quickly out of the gate in the form of Cedric Benson ripping off a huge touchdown run, the first 1^st quarter the Bears have scored in like, forever. The 10-0 lead didn’t last, and the Bears failed to get the 2^nd half scores necessary to keep up with the flying Seahawks. Grossman had a decent game – perhaps he’ll start the rest of the season now that the Bears have zero chance of making the playoffs. The Seahawks proved themselves to be just fine without Shaun Alexander again. He seems to have the heart of a benchwarmer this year, so you might as well park his butt there.

½ Unit: Over 20.5 2^nd half/Loser

Final Score Prediction:___Tennessee 17 – Denver 21

Actual Final Score:______Tennessee 20 – Denver 34

The game I predicted to be the “forum trap game of the week” proved to be exactly that, as this game was Over before the 1^st quarter had even expired, for all intents and purposes. Cutler completely destroyed the Titans’ defense, and was helped out by a punt return for a TD and a long run for a TD as well. I figured Vince Young (and his sub-par group of receivers) was incapable of leading this team back with the pass if it came down to it, and that’s how it played out. He set a career high for passing yards, but failed when the last 2 drives ended with interceptions. My spreadsheet recommended a full 1 Unit play on Denver +0.5 for the second half (a team’s capability of making up a deficit with the pass is part of the line, so it didn’t look good for Tennessee), but ultimately I was gun shy as I already had the Denver Pick play looking good for the game and didn’t want to risk the profit. Well, that was a mistake I’m kicking myself over, because you can’t be afraid to jump on each and every profitable situation due to other bets you have out. I did make personal bets of Denver +0.5 and the Over 20 for the second half at 1 Unit each, but of course you want those winners to go not just to your bankroll, but to your forum record as well.

3/4^th Unit: Broncos Pick/Winner

½ Unit: 1^st Score will be a FG or Safety +110/Loser

1/3 Unit: Over 3.5 field goals in game +145/Winner

1/3 Unit: 3 Unanswered Scores – “No” +150/Winner

Week #11: Game Sides: +4.8/Game Totals: +2.3/Teasers: -1.4

Halves: -1.4/Quarters: None/Props n’ Parlays +0.7

Week #11: +5.1 Units

***Year to Date***

Game Sides: +12/Game Totals: +6.8/Teasers: +2.6

Halves: -0.2/Quarters: +0.5/Props n’ Parlays: +0.8

YTD: +22.5 Units, +8.24% ROI, Average bet size = .78 Units, +28.9 average bets

Week #11 Write-Ups of Key Match-Ups and Final Score Predictions

Week #11 Key Match-Ups and Final Score Predictions

Legend

Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value

Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

San Diego/+3/+3.5/Jacksonville 1.8% value

Jacksonville/40.5/42.5/Over 5.4% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Jaguars’ run attack versus the Charger defense. The two-headed attack of M. Jones Draw and F. Taylor has produced on a consistent basis this year. They’ve only faced two sub-par run defenses this year; the Broncos’ and the Texans’, so they’re used to a tough time in the trenches, and have still managed to gain better than the league averages. The Chargers’ run defense has started to slip, and has been hit with injuries at one of the defensive end positions’, losing Luis Castillo and having his backup, Jacques Cesaire, listed as “questionable” this week. This is not the bruising run offense you want to face with such a weakness on your defensive line. If the Chargers are unable to force the Jaguars into many obvious passing downs, David Garrard will have a much easier time of it at QB returning from his injury for the first game.

Key Match-Up #2: Phillip Rivers versus the Jaguar pass defense. Teams with good passing games have been able to exploit the Jaguar secondary this year. Heck, even Vince Young was able to complete almost 59% of his passes last week for 230 yards (though only 5.1 yppa) against them. Rivers started off the season pretty well but has been backsliding as of late. He did throw for a really high yppa versus the Texans a few games ago, but that was on only 11 throws. In games where he’s thrown 24 or more passes, his yppa per game average is only 4.97, well below the league average of 6.11. He figures to throw a lot of passes this game not only because it’s the Jaguars’ defensive weakness, but because they’re likely to be playing from behind in this game. If Rivers is unable to have a decent game throwing the ball, it’ll be a long game for the Chargers and they may get blown out. Playing in an early game after traveling from the west coast to the east coast doesn’t do them any favors either.

Final Score Prediction: San Diego 20 -- Jacksonville 23

Kansas City/+14.5/+13.5/Kansas City 3.0% value

Indianapolis/42/43.5/Over 3.8% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Colts’ ground game versus the Chiefs’ defense. The Colts’ offensive line will have all of its’ starters back in place for this tilt. This is a big boost, as they figure to be running the ball A LOT as they should be leading on the scoreboard from start to finish. The Chiefs do have a slightly better than average run defense, so as funny as it sounds, they’ll want to force Peyton Manning into obvious passing downs where they’ll at least have a chance to kill some Colt drives. Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez will be out again, but the Colts will get Dallas Clark back. B. Fletcher will be newly out at TE for the Colts, but they still have Ben Utecht to back up D. Clark and to use in two TE formations.

Key Match-Up #2: Brodie Croyle versus the Colts’ defense and the “So loud it seems piped-in” crowd noise in the RCA dome. The Colts’ crowd noise should be turned up to 11 as they want nothing short of a blow out to get their team back on track after suffering their first losses of the season in back-to-back fashion. That’ll be tough for QB Croyle, making his 1^st start in his 2^nd NFL season. Luckily for him, he won’t have to worry about Dwight Freeney eating his proverbial lunch from the blind side. Still, the Chiefs’ offense has been so anemic this year, the Colts’ defense will be able to show about any look they want in an attempt to confuse Croyle and force him into mistakes. The Colts have been playing really good defense this year, so the Chiefs’ already struggling offense will struggle for every point they put on the scoreboard.

Final Score Prediction: Kansas City 14 -- Indianapolis 28

Oakland/+4.5/+11.5/Minnesota 19.5% value

Minnesota/35.5/38.5/Over 8.8% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Vikings’ offensive line versus the Raiders’ defense. The Raiders are well aware that the Vikings’ game plan doesn’t change much with Adrian Peterson out of the game. They’ll still run Chester Taylor behind their expensive, excellent offensive line and try to bully a Raider offensive line that gives up 4.79 ypc. Clearly the Raiders will put more men in the box and try to force T. Jackson to beat them with his inaccurate arm. If the Vikings are still able to gain 4-5 yards ypc versus a stacked box, the Raiders’ defensive line will be ground to a find black and silver powder by the time the game ends.

Key Match-Up #2: Daunte Culpepper versus the Vikings’ secondary. The Raiders are also aware of the fact that the Vikings’ defensive line will be ready for Vargas and Jordan this week, as the Raiders are normally a run-first offense. I expect the Raiders, who really have nothing to lose at his point of the season, to play-action more than usual and throw the ball on many first and second downs, as it’s probably their only chance to score points and win this football game. And why wouldn’t they try to air it out and pick up some big yards? Imagine the criticism Lane Kiffin and Co. will face if they just pound the ball into the Vikings’ #1 run defense all day and end up slinking away with a loss.

The Vikings, like the Chargers, also have a kick-off time equal to 10 AM hometown time.

Final Score Prediction: Oakland 14 – Minnesota 24

Cleveland/-2.5/-1.5/Baltimore 2.3% value

Baltimore/43.5/44/Over 1.5% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Baltimore offense versus any 11 defenders, regardless of race, creed or NFL experience. Luckily for them, the Browns’ defense doesn’t defend much better than an average group of tail-gaters who’ve just polished off their first 2 cases of morning beer, so they have a chance to score actual football points this week. Kyle Boller returns at QB for the Ravens, so at least they’ve got an arm in there capable of throwing incompletions at all 3 levels. The Ravens’ may look to run Willis McGahee over the right side quite a bit in this game as the Browns’ Shaun Smith is newly injured coming into this game, and listed as “?”. Smith has been okay at DE this year, getting the bulk of the tackles there while splitting time with the aging Orpheus Roye.

Key Match-Up #2: Derek Anderson versus the Ravens’ defense. The Ravens’ secondary has been plagued by injuries this past month, and may be only slightly better this week. Samari Rolle, CB, is still out, and C. McCallister is “?”. Jamal Lewis, RB, would like to have a good game for the Browns versus his old team, but will be hard-pressed in doing so versus one of the best run defenses in the league, so it looks to be up to D. Anderson to perform well versus the blitz-happy Ravens’ defense and hook up with good group of receivers and TEs. Anderson is mobile in the pocket, and the Ravens’ blitzes appear spasmodically haphazard at times, so maybe Anderson will be able to duck away to the outside and complete some big passes downfield like the Steelers were able to do a couple of weeks ago.

Final Score Prediction: Cleveland 23 – Baltimore 21

Pittsburgh/-9.5/-11.5/Pittsburgh 4.5% value

New York Jets/40/41/Over 2.0% value

Key Match-Up #1: Kellen Clemens and his 59.3 QB rating versus the Steelers’ #1 rated pass defense. Ye-Gods, what a mismatch this game appears to be on every level. If the Jets’ 9^th worst ypc run game doesn’t pick up consistent yardage versus the Steelers’ 7^th best run defense, it could get realllll ugly for the Jets at home this week. Now that I look at it, perhaps the more important match-up will in fact be the Jets’ run offense versus the Steelers’ run defense, because it’s the more favorable match-up the Jets are presented with this week.

Key Match-Up #2: Willie Parker versus the Jets’ run defense. Once again, the passing mismatch is so huge as to be a non-issue. It’s a better than average Steelers pass attack versus one of the absolute worst pass defenses in the league. It’s not a match-up, it’s a total mismatch. Even still, the Steelers will want to run the ball plenty versus an also poor Jets’ run defense. If the Jets aren’t able to thwart the occasional Steeler drive with good run defense on 1^st and 2^nd down, the Steelers may score on every possession of the game. In the end, if the Jets’ aren’t able to hold their own in the trenches offensively and defensively, they’ll be obliterated in this game.

Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh 27 – NY Jets 14

Tampa Bay/-3.5/-5/Tampa Bay 4.8% value

Atlanta/35.5/37.5/Over 5.7% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Falcons’ running game versus the Bucs’ run defense. The running game will provide the Falcons with their best opportunity to move the chains in this game. Jerious Norwood, who’s missed the last 1.5 games with an injury, is now supposed to return for this game, and it couldn’t have come at a bette time. The Falcons have a slightly below average run offense, while the Bucs have a slightly better than average run defense. If the Falcons can’t pick up good yards on the early downs with the run, they’ll find it tough to extend drives with the pass as the Bucs have a very good pass defense, while they themselves are more than a half yard worse per pass attempt than the league average. If Joey Harrington struggle (likely) and the Falcons fall behind, Byron Leftwich will be available to enter the game and stretch the field with his big arm (if not sacked first, as the Falcons sport the 3^rd worst sacks allowed average in the league).

Key Match-Up #2: Jeff Garcia versus the Falcons’ run defense. Unfortunately for the Bucs, Ernest Graham, the running back they acquired after their entire backfield was erased by injuries, comes into this game with a fresh foot/ankle injury. He’d been running the ball pretty well since joining the team. He’s listed as questionable, and I’d lean toward him playing. Michael Pittman, one of the aforementioned injured running backs, is slated to return this week. So basically, the Bucs have one gimpy RB, and one possibly recovered from being gimpy RB in the backfield. Graham’s injury basically negates the small advantage the Bucs running game would have versus the Falcon run defense. So…Jeff Garcia may be required to carry the team on his shoulders once again. He’s proven himself capable of doing just that, and should have good success versus a Falcon pass defense that rates right near the middle of the pack.

Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay 21 – Atlanta 16

Arizona/+3/+2.5/Arizona 1.5% value

Cincinatti/48.5/49/Over 1.1% value

Key Match-Up: Pass offenses versus pass defenses, as this game stands a good chance of turning into an all-out, good old fashioned Ohio air show. Sure the Cardinals will run the ball versus the Bengals’ poor run defense, but that’ll probably only net them league average gains, as the Cardinal running game has been rather poor so far this year. League average on the ground just won’t cut it when Warner can take to the air and average almost 7 yppa by my calculations. That’s almost a full yard better than league average, and they’ll need those bonus yards as the Bengals figure to throw it for an average of 6.6 yards in this match-up, and that’s a conservative estimate, because the loss of Adrian Wilson and pass-rusher Bertrand Berry are applied evenly to the defensive statistics. The Bengals will heavily favor the pass in this game, as the running match-up is really unfavorable – a projected 3.14 ypc. So yeah, like Haley Joel Osment saw “dead people,” I see “dead running games” and a good old fashioned Ohio air show come Sunday in this game.

Final Score Prediction: Arizona 24 – Cincinatti 27

Miami/+9.5/+15.5/Philadelphia 15.4% value (line is with Westbrook “?”)

Philadelphia/40.5/41.5/Over 2.9% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Dolphins’ run offense versus the Eagles’ run defense. It’s pretty much a given that rookie starting QB John Beck will have his hands full in this, his first start, versus a good defense. Therefore, the Dolphins best chance to stay competitive in this game is to pound the football with their successful running game versus a pretty good Eagle run defense. The Eagles’ pass defense is their weaker facet, but it’s not nearly poor enough for a QB seeing his first ever NFL action to consistently exploit. If the Dolphins can’t avoid 3^rd down and long yardage situations, this game could get way out of hand.

Key Match-Up #2: Brian Westbrook versus the Dolphin defense. Brian Westbrook didn’t practice Friday and was downgraded to “?”. Odds are it’s just a little ploy while resting Westbrook, who’s had some injury problems this year, and that he’ll probably play. If he does, the Dolphins are in a world of hurt this game, because their only chance of limiting the Eagles’ offense this game is to stuff the Westbrook-less Eagles on running plays and hope for the occasional McNabb 3^rd down misfire. The Dolphins’ pass defense is so poor that if they get no help up front they may be burned by some huge plays on 3^rd and short type situations when their defense gambles on defending the run. Even Westbrook is downgraded further I’m still betting on the Eagles. (and if he’s a game time decision it’ll be hard to get the line value that would be introduced if he’s downgraded to out), because I still show plenty of line value on the Eagles without him in there. Correl Buckhalter has picked up good yards in relief of Westbrook (though Buckhalter didn’t play last week, and I’m not sure why. He’s not showing up on injury reports so I have to assume he’s probable this week), and the Eagles’ passing game can still take it to the Dolphins. McNabb may be getting a little bit of his game legs back, and the Dolphins have been pretty woeful at getting to the opposing QBs this year. The Dolphins will also be without Matt Roth, DE, for this game, and he’s been having a pretty solid year. Jevon Kearse will be out for the Eagles at DE, but he’s got far better help at his position available than the Dolphins do for Roth.

Final Score Prediction: Miami 13 – Philadelphia 29

New England/-15.5/-12.5/Buffalo 6.8% value

Buffalo/46.5/43.5/Under 6.8% value

Key Match-Up #1: Tom Brady versus the photographers’ lens, because he probably spent more time during the bye week worrying about that then the Bills’ pass defense. Brady and Co. have actually faced 3 worse pass defenses than the Bills sport this year in the Jets, Bengals and Browns. Still, the Bills’ pass defense is closer in performance to the poor pass defenses the Patriots have faced than the good ones, so the Bills have basically no shot at slowing down the Patriots’ pass attack unless some high winds decided to accompany the near-freezing temperatures projected for this game.

Key Match-Up #2: JP Losman versus the Patriots’ defense. Let me be the first (maybe) to say that missing Marshawn Lynch will not adversely affect the Bills that much this week. In the second half when you figure to be trailing by double-digits, you have to pass the ball more than you run if you want a shot at winning, plain and simple. M. Lynch has 196 rush attempts versus only 15 pass receptions, so he’s normally not much of a threat in the passing game. Any of the guys behind him could come in and catch the passes thrown to the RB with near equal success. The guys behind him may even be better pass-blockers (I don’t know, I’m just saying, he being a rookie and all). If the Bills were playing a team that they had a realistic chance of beating, Lynch’s absence would have much greater impact, as they’d be running him right up until the end of the game, normally.

Final Score Prediction: New England 28 -- Bills 14

Washington/+11/+15/Dallas 8.3% value

Dallas/47/48/Over 1.7% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Redskins’ run defense versus the Cowboys’ run attack. The Redskins’ secondary is currently undermanned and will have a tough time stopping the Cowboys 2^nd rated pass attack, even thought the Redskins’ pass defense has been pretty good this year up until now. Their only chance is to win some battles at the line of scrimmage on early running downs and hope for a few stalled drives.

Key Match-Up #2: The Redskins’ run offense versus the Cowboys’ run attack. The Redskins’ most favorable match-up on offense will be with the run. They’ll also want to grind the clock this game, limiting the number of possessions that the Cowboys’ potent offense will have. Not only that, but the Redskins are decimated at WR right now. Sure, they’ve recently upgraded Santana Moss to probable, but he wore a boot on Friday and was most likely upgraded because the Redskins literally do not even have enough healthy wide receivers to line up for 3-receiver formations if he’s not active, lol. Their other starting receiver, Randle El, is also playing through lingering injuries. Chris Cooley, say hello to Mr. Football.

Final Score Prediction: Washington 16 – Dallas 31

New Orleans/+1/+4.5/Houston 7.3% value

Houston/48/48/No value

Key Match-Up: Either team’s run defense vs. the opponent’s run offense. First, let’s just get this out of the way – both teams are capable of passing lights out in this game. Both pass defenses are going to suck. Both teams have dealt with injuries and poor yards per carry in the backfield this year. The Saints’ run defense had been pretty solid until they got hit with injuries on their defensive line a couple of weeks ago. The Rams, with the returning Stephen Jackson, were able to gain 133 yards at 3.91 per carry last week versus the Saints, the first time the Saints had allowed more than 100 rush yards since their opening week drubbing at the hands of the Colts. These injuries may give the Texans’ poor run offense just enough breathing room to not have to be completely reliant on Matt Schaubs’ return at QB. Unfortunately for the Texans’ they’ll be without Ahman Green at RB again this week, as Mr. “Old and Injury Prone” has missed almost half of this season because of injuries. Ron Dayne, his back up, has been good for 3.5 yards and a cloud of Cheetoh dust, but he’ll need to do better than that or the Saints will have the decided edge in the running game. But honestly, who’s to say how much either team will run in this game? When it comes down to it, you’d rather have Ron Dayne in there on 3^rd and 1 then Reggie Bush. The Texans have a higher yards per pass attempt than the Saints, and will be getting their #1 receiver Andre Johnson back this year, and will face the worst secondary in the league. The Saints’ chances for competing in this game hinge upon their passing game enjoying the success it’s had lately, and there’s no reason they shouldn’t versus an also awful Texan pass defense. Still, the edge goes to the home team.

Final Score Prediction: New Orleans 23 – Houston 27

Carolina/+9.5/+13/Green Bay 9.4% value

Green Bay/37.5/40.5/Over 8.2% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Panthers’ run game versus the Packers’ run defense. If the Panthers are to have any success in sustaining drives and scoring points, it’ll be on the back of their running game. DeShaun Foster, RB, who was listed as “?” earlier in the week, has been upgraded to probable, and they’d better hope he’s near 100%, as he’s been their main workhorse. If not, DeAngelo Williams will get more carries, and that’s not such a bad thing as he’s averaged 5 yards per carry versus Foster’s 3.82. The Panthers can’t rely on their Testaverede-Carr QB “Combo O’ Futility” to carry the day for them on the road at Lambeau. Testaverde will start, and that’s probably a good thing, as Carr has probably only played a few cold-weather games in his life, lol, growing up in California, playing his collegiate ball at Fresno State, and the bulk of his NFL career in Houston. David, those sacks hurt twice as much in the cold, buddy!

Key Match-Up #2: The Panthers’ pass defense versus Brett Favre and his cadre of quality receivers. The Panthers have been fair at defending the pass this year, just slightly worse than league average. Unfortuantely for them, they’ll be facing a Packer passing game that is peaking after getting Koren Robinson back from suspension, and Ruvell Martin back from injury. Add that to Greg Jennings, who missed the first couple of games with injury, the ever-dependable Donald Driver, and the developing rookie James Jones, and you’ve got one hell of a receiving corps. The Panther pass rush is just not getting to the QB like they used to, so the Panthers are really in a bind. If they blitz (which they don’t seem to do, as their linebackers have a combined 2 sacks, and their secondary none) to help out in the pass rush, Favre is very good at the quick-hitting routes and has receivers that can really hurt you with the yards after the catch. They’ll probably just drop back, hoping to clog the field with enough bodies to catch an errant or tipped pass. This “on your heels” defense, when combined with the hard-rushing edge defenders, will allow the Packers to run the ball on the delayed handoffs for some big gainers like they did against Minnesota last week.

Final Score Prediction: Carolina 14 – Green Bay 27

New York Giants/-2.5/+3/Detroit 10.9% value

Detroit/48.5/46.5/Under 4.1% value

Key Match-Up #1: Giants’ pass rush versus Lions’ pass blocking. The Giants have been the most sack-happy team in the league since altering their scheme back in week 3. They’ll be licking their lips when thinking of Detroit this week, even though it isn’t the Lions traditional turkey-bowl game they’ll be playing in. The Lions do, indeed, give up the sack. It’s a pretty bad mismatch, but you have to know the Lions are aware of it and will have a game plan to hopefully counter the Giants’ ferocious rush. The Lions run game just hasn’t produced well enough to be relied upon in this game, even when facing an average Giants’ run defense. Screens? Quick slants? The Lions will have to do something or Kitna may never get the taste of artificial turf out of his mouth.

Key Match-Up #2: Eli Manning versus the Lions’ pass defense. The Giants have had more success running the ball this year than they’ve had passing. Derrick Ward will be out again injured, so Brandon Jacobs will be smashed into the Lions’ stout defensive line. The Lions have been quite good at defending the run this year, so it’ll be up to Eli to make the big throws when needed to to move the chains. If he struggles, the Lions will get enough possessions and short field to get the victory in this game.

Final Score Prediction: New York Giants 21 – Detroit 24

Saint Louis/-3/0/San Francisco 8.3% value

San Francisco/39/36/Under 7.4% value

Key Match-Ups: Run offenses versus run defenses. The team that wins this game will have to have success in the run game. The 49ers’ secondary is good enough to slow down the Rams’ pass attack that struggles when not playing week pass defenses in a dome, a la last week. The Rams’ running game had its’ second best performance of the year with Stephen Jackson back in the backfield last week, so while they bring a really poor ypc average into this game, it’s got nowhere to go but up. The Rams’ run defense is slightly worse than league average, and the 49ers will be even more reliant on their run game than the Rams. Frank Gore finally managed to finish a game last week, but it’s getting hard to predict how healthy he is and how well he’ll perform on the field. Dilfer is no worse than a less than 100% Alex Smith, so he should some success versus a poor Rams’ secondary. The Rams are starting to be more aggressive in attacking the QB, which could pay dividends versus the nearly geriatric Dilfer if he doesn’t unload the ball quickly.

All in all, I think people are over-valuing the Rams’ offensive performance last week, and devaluing the 49ers defensive performance all year, but with two teams playing as generally bad these two, it’s hard to make a bet with any confidence on either side.

Final Score Prediction: Saint Louis 17 – San Francisco 17 (no one scores in OT, lol)

Chicago/+5.5/+4.5/Chicago 2.9% value

Seattle/37.5/39.5/Over 4.9% value

Key Match-Up #1: Rex Grossman versus the Seattle pass defense. The Bears have basically proved themselves incapable of running the ball on anyone, and I mean anyone. They ran the ball 78 times for 34 yards last week, an average of 2.29 ypc versus the Raiders. Yup, the same Raiders who’d been giving up an average of 5.23 ypc per game leading up to last week. So, it’s going to fall on Rex Grossman to complete enough passes to generate scoring drives – unless Devin Hester manages to save the day as he often does.

Key Match-Up #2: The Seahawks’ weakness at running the ball will average out with the Bears weakness at defending the run, so I see the 2^nd key match-up being Matt Hasselbeck versus the Bears’ pass defense. Anyone that watched the MNF game last week knows the Matt Hasselbeck is a “Top 5 Quarterback.” Sure, he’s pretty good. He may even get Deion Branch back this week. It’s up to the Bears somewhat better than average pass defense to limit Hasselbecks’ success in this game. If they don’t, Sexy Rexy will not have enough opportunities to work his “1/4 boom, 3/4 bust” style of offensive magic.

Final Score Prediction: Chicago 17 – Seattle 21

Tennessee/+2/+3.5/Denver 4.5% value

Denver/ 38/39.5/Over 3.3% value

Key Match-Up #1: The Titans’ run offense versus the Broncos’ run defense. Much maligning has been heaped upon the Denver run defense this year, and rightly so, as they’ve given up an average of 4.93 ypc. The Titans are sometimes thought of as a dominant running team, but the numbers just don’t support this, as they have a below league average of 3.94 ypc. They come into this game with their leading rusher, LenDale White, still bothered by injury. Chris Brown, their leading rusher 2 and 3 seasons ago, has been injured in the latter half of the season to date and comes into this questionable, leaning to doubtful, I’d say. That leaves them with Chris Henry, rookie, in only his second game back from suspension, and a total of 21 carries as they’re only fully healthy back. Last week he ad 3 carries for -2 yards versus the Jaguars. If the Titans are unable to gain consistent yards with their running game, they’ll lose, because of key match-up #2.

Key Match-Up #2: Vince Young versus the Broncos’ pass defense. You can call Vince Young a winner, that’s fine, just don’t call him a passer. He’s got a QB rating of 62.2. versus Jay Cutlers’ 84.8 He’ll get plenty of opportunities to prove that he can beat single coverage in this game, and it’s completely on his shoulders to make the Broncos pay for cheating versus the run. I personally don’t think he’ll be able to carry the day and the Broncos will get the home win.

Final Score Prediction: Tennessee 17 – Denver 21

Week #11 Lines

***Updated Saturday evening 6pm Mountain***

Legend
Visiting Team Current Pointspread My Pointspread Value
Home Team Current Total My Total Value

San Diego +3 +3.5 Jacksonville 1.8% value
Jacksonville 40.5 42.5 Over 5.4% value

Kansas City +14.5 +13.5 Kansas City 3.0% value
Indianapolis 42 43.5 Over 3.8% value

Oakland +4.5 +11.5 Minnesota 19.5% value
Minnesota 35.5 38.5 Over 8.28% value

Cleveland -2.5 -1.5 Baltimore 2.3% value
Baltimore 43.5 44 Over 1.5% value

Pittsburgh -9.5 -11.5 Pittsburgh 4.5% value
NY Jets 40 41 Over 2.0% value

Tampa Bay -3.5 -5 Tampa Bay 4.8% value
Atlanta 35.5 37.5 Over 5.7% value

Arizona +3 +2.5 Arizona 1.5% value
Cincinatti 48.5 49 Over 1.1% value

Miami +9.5 +15.5 Philadelphia 15.4% value
Philadelphia 40.5 41.5 Over 2.9% value

New England -15.5 -12.5 Buffalo 6.8% value
Buffalo 46.5 43.5 Under 6.8% value

Washington +11 +15 Dallas 8.3% value
Dallas 47 48 Over 1.7% value

New Orleans +1 +4.5 Texans 7.3% value
Houston 48 48 No value

Carolina +9.5 +13 Green Bay 9.4% value
Green Bay 40.5 37.5 Over 8.2% value

NY Giants -2.5 +3 Detroit 10.9% value
Detroit 48.5 46.5 Under 4.1% value

Saint Louis -3 +0 San Francisco 8.3% value
San Francisco 39 36 Under 7.4% value

Chicago +5.5 +4.5 Chicago 2.9% value
Seattle 37.5 39.5 Over 4.9% value

Tennessee +2 +3.5 Denver 4.5% value
Denver 38 39.5 Over 3.3% value

Week #11 Recommended Plays

For Entertainment Purposes Only

Lines posted are from the lines widely available when the recommended plays were made as documented in the Week #11 Discussion Thread link.

1 Unit:

Cowboys -10.5
Steelers -9
Bucs -3
Texans +2.5
Texans/Saints Over 47
Eagles -10
Bills/Patriots Under 47
Vikings -5.5
49ers/Rams Under 41
Packers -10
Pitts. +1.5/Philly-Pick/GB-Pick 3 team 10 point teaser
Pitts. -1.5/Philly -3 2 team 7 point teaser
Pitts. +4.5/Philly +3/GB +3/Pats -1.5 4 team 13 point teaser
Indy -2/TB +10/Pitts.-NYJ Over 27/Mia.-Philly Over 27.5 4 tm 13 pt. teaser
Indy -2/Dallas +2.5/Pats -2/GB +3 4 team 13 point teaser

3/4th Unit:

Vikings/Raiders Over 35.5
Jaguars -3
"Grand Salami (all games combined) Bet" Home Teams -28
TB +10/NE -2.5/Min-Oak Over 22.5/Hou-NO Over 35 4 team 13 pt. teaser

1/2 Unit:

Giants/Lions Under 50.5
Eagles/Dolphins Over 40
Cowboys/Redskins Over 23.5 1st half
Ravens ML +140 to win 1/2
Colts/Chiefs Under 44
Bucs/Falcons Over 35.5

Week #10 Recap

Week #10 Recap

Broncos 27 – Chiefs 11

This game featured my “Damn, why don’t they play 15 m. 20 sec. quarters???” play of the week. I had the Over 7 1^st quarter at even juice. Both teams had chipped in with a field goal (instead of the one touchdown necessary to at least push the stupid bet) and the Chiefs were driving. From somewhere near the Broncos’ 30-40 yard line Huard lobs up a ball to the goal line that is nearly caught, but then intercepted. Boo. Still, Denver starts from the two yard line, and with a 1:25 left in the quarter there’s always a chance for a safety, right? First down, Denver runs for -1 yards. 2^nd down from the 1, Denver runs for 4 yards, and the quarter expires: Denver/KC Over 7 1^st q. = loser. 3^rd down, completed pass for 5 yards. 4^th down, punt blocked out of end zone for a safety 19 seconds into the 2^nd quarter. Grr… Oh well, I’ve still got KC -3 (only made the play because of the plus juice on it) and they take a 2 point lead into halftime. One minute and 28 seconds into the second half and it’s Denver 20 – Kansas City 8. WTF? Two turnovers by Huard and stick a fork ‘em, the Chiefs are done. Brody Croyle comes in for a dinged up Huard at some point and doesn’t look half bad. Cue the QB controversy a la Green and Huard of a year ago.

½ Unit: Broncos/Chiefs Over 7 1^st quarter/Loser

½ Unit: Chiefs -3/Loser

Bills 13 – Dolphins 10

Though my numbers didn’t support it, I’d talked myself into thinking that the Over was a good play in this game. Buffalo had had good recent offensive success versus poor defenses, and now faced another one in Miami. Miami, though winless, still had a good running game and Lemon is capable of the occasional sublime throw. Here they were also facing a statistically rated basement-dwelling defense. Dinna’ happen, and it wasn’t even bad luck. At halftime the score is Buffalo 0 – Miami 3. The Over is not looking good. Still, last year I had an Under 36.5 between the Dolphins and the Jets with a halftime score of 3-0 that went Over by half point, so maybe the football Gods were looking to give me an equalizer (though they tend not to reward atheists). Dinna’ happen. Both teams had been sucking at about an equal lack of strength during the first half. The halftime line was Buffalo -0.5 at varying degrees of plus juice. Hmm…considering that Buffalo was still the better team and was a favorite entering the game (my line was Buffalo -4.5), I rated them at 50% to still win this game. The baby hook on the halftime line was potentially dangerous, though, because if they tie the game at any point (which would currently be covering the second half bet), the tie would have to be broken and then they’d only rate as small favorites to win the game. Eh, I’ll take my chances. The Bills -0.5 +126 bet at Matchbook was bet. Early in the second the Bills get a safety. Hey, this is good news! That’s better than a field goal, because there’s no tie that needs to be broken now, and Buffalo is covering the second half bet. Fast forward >>> Miami scores a touchdown. Hey, that’s bad news! Fast forward >>> Buffalo scores a touchdown. Hey, that’s good news! Down by 2 (covering the second half bet) they have to go for two to tie the game. Bad news, they convert! Fast forward >>> Bills win on a late field goal. The good/bad/good/bad/good news events of the second half thankfully ended on the odd-number goodies.

½ Unit: Bills/Dolphins Over 40.5/Loser

½ Unit: Bills -0.5 2^nd half (+126)/Winner

13 point teaser: Dolphins +15.5/Covered (entire play lost)

Vikings 0 – Packers 34

Grr…these Vikings are really starting to piss me off. One week I say their one-dimensional offense and one-dimensional defenses will be exploited – and they thoroughly trounce the Chargers. The next week I say, hey, looks like they can get their ground yards versus any defense and that their defense can hold its’ own in the passing game – they get smoked like Gouda by the Cheese Packers. To be fair, the Packers got many breaks with tipped balls and some amazing catches, but it wouldn’t have changed the outcome versus the spread (but maybe on the +19 for the lone teaser loss). The weather was my fair-weather friend this week, as it failed to bring its’ nasty side to Green Bay and Seattle for games in which I’d bet the run-oriented underdogs. Cest’ la vie, and vie lace (sic, I’m sure, as I don’t speak French, but loosely translated “That’s life, and long live the shoelace.”)

1 Unit: Vikings +6/Loser

To Win ½ Unit: Vikings ML +236/Loser

13 point teaser: Vikings +19/Loser (this one sunk the ship as the other 3 hit, or is that missed the ship because they won? Eh…)

½ Unit: Packers/Vikings Under 18.5 2^nd half/Loser (Packers 21-0 2^nd half, lol)

Browns 28 – Steelers 31

It was rather sporting of the Steelers to spot the Browns such a large halftime lead – thankfully the Steelers had enough game to come back in the second and cover the -2.5 teaser I had them on. The Steelers’ defense actually limited the Browns to their worst offensive performance in terms of yards gained in the Derek Anderson era. The Browns only gained 163 yards, and they’d been averaging 386 since DA took over at QB. That 163 was 140 yards lower than their next lowest output of the DA era. If the Browns’ potent offense was held to 3.08 yards per play, when they’d be averaging 6.37 in the DA era, what do you think the Jets will be able to do next Sunday? Squat.

½ Unit: Steelers/Browns Over 47.5/Winner

7 point teaser: Steelers -2.5/Covered

13 point teaser: Over 35/Covered (entire play won)

Rams 37 – Saints 29

This game was like holding a bingo card that wins after only 5 numbers have been called, lol. I had 3 straight bet winners, a parlay winner, and 2 teaser covers in this game alone. The Rams’ offense played well, as I expected versus a very poor Saints’ defense. They took advantage of some turnovers as well. The Saints went on a 22 point 4^th quarter tear while trying to get back into this game, but fell 8 points short as they were soooooo far behind.

1 Unit: Rams/Saints over 44.5/Winner

¾ Unit: Rams +11.5/Winner

13 point teaser: Rams +24.5/Covered (entire play lost)

13 point teaser: Over 33/Covered (entire play won)

½ Unit: Saints/Rams Over 23.5 1^st half/Winner

¼ Unit: Rams +7/Over 23.5 1^st half Parlay/Winner

Titans 28 – Jaguars 13

I vacillated wildly on this game during the week – all according to David Garrard’s status. In the end I ate some juice on a Titans’ buy back but still came out ahead with the Jaguar play made when it was all said and done. I decided to go ahead with the ½ Unit play on the Jaguars (in spite of Garrard sitting out) because it was determined shortly before game time that Albert Haynesworth wouldn’t be anchoring the defensive line for the Titans. He was the one player they couldn’t afford to lose and it cost them dearly as they gave up a season high 166 yards on the ground – the only time they’ve given up more than 100 all year. This one player sitting out had a pretty big ripple effect as it allowed the Jaguars’ inexperienced QB to only attempt 23 passes for the game, completing 13 for 96 yards. Vince Young was able to get his season high for passing yards as they were playing from behind the whole game, but he still only averaged 5.11 yards per pass attempt, exactly one yard below the league average of 6.11.

This game was one of the two that I targeted with some prop plays. In my thread from last week I went into detail about these plays, including their pros and cons.

1^st, I had the “First score will be a FG or safety” +105 bet. The Titans’ did their part, scoring 2 field goals and one touchdown, but the Jags ruined the play with a late first quarter touchdown, the first score of the game. The play was already made when the news that Albert Haynesworth would be sitting out arrived. Who knows, that may have been enough to deter me from the bet.

2^nd, I had the “Will there be a score in the last 2 minutes of the 1^st half? – “No”” bet at +160. With just over a minute left in the first half, the Titans had the ball on their own 31 yard line, and had been shut out in the first half so far. You’d like your chances of no more scores in the half there, right? I wasn’t tracking the game closely as I was getting my halftime plays ready, and the stupid NFL tickers showed a halftime score of 14-0. Sweet, I thought, I hit that “end of the half” play. Wrong! The Titans’ completed some big passes and Bironas kicks the 37 yarder with 2 seconds left on the clock at the time of the snap, ie., it lost on the last play of the half, lol. I said with the posted play that Bironas would be the biggest threat to this play…yup. Just missed the +160 juice play.

3^rd, I had the “Will there be 3 unanswered scores? “No”” play at +145. Logic dictates that lower scoring games with fairly evenly matched teams have a better chance than others of winning this play. The Jaguars had 4 scores in the game, the Titans 3. At one point each team had 2 consecutive scores, but neither hit 3 in a row. The one upside of Bironas’ last second first half field goal was that it nixed the Jaguars’ current streak of 2 scores that threatened this play. But obviously I’d have rather cashed the +160 winner and take my chances that the Titans get the first score in the second half, lol.

½ Unit: Jaguars +4.5/Winner

13 point teaser: Jaguars +17/Covered (entire play won)

½ Unit: First score will a FG or safety, +105/Loser

½ Unit: No score in the last 2 minutes of the first half, +160/Loser

½ Unit: Will either team have 3 unanswered scores – No, +145/Winner

Eagles 33 – Redskins 25

This was a back and forth game with neither team being up by more than one score the entire way. Both teams ran the ball pretty well, but the Eagles did better averaging almost 5 yards a carry. McNair ended up with a good 8 yards per pass attempt average thanks to the 60+ yard dump off to Westbrook that went for a touchdown. That was a huge play, as it was the covering score for a small Eagles’ ML play I had.

To Win ½ Unit: Eagles ML/Winner

Falcons 20 – Panthers 13

This was one of my two favorite Under plays of the week, and it was never in jeopardy. The final score is a little misleading as the Falcons got a touchdown with 26 seconds left in the game, where they’d normally wind up with the field goal, or a miss leading to a probable field goal in OT and a 16-13 score for someone either way. It seems pretty clear to me that the Under is the right play in a game that ends up with 17 punts. I’d made a Panther -4 play early in the week which I later, thankfully, got off of with a Falcons +4 play when it seemed like Matt Moore might be the starting QB for the Panthers. So I ate a little juice, but saved what would’ve been a ½ Unit loser.

My final line on this game was Falcons +2, O/U of 33.5, so I was looking at a close, low-scoring game here. The 1^st quarter line had the Falcons +0.5 at -115 juice. Me likey. A 0-0 score at the end of the first quarter for a Falcons 1^st q. cover wouldn’t have surprised me that much. Instead, the Falcons get a touchdown midway through the first quarter that all but guaranteed the 1^st quarter play win (1^st quarter score ended up Falcons 7 – Panthers 0).

This was the other game in which I had a couple of prop plays. Another close, low-scoring game forecasted in this one. Low-scoring games are a football bettors best friend, and this is just one example of that (not that I made any money on the prop plays this week, lol, I was down 1/5^th of a Unit is all).

1^st, I had the “No score in the last 2 minutes of the 1^st half play” at +160. The Falcons punt the ball with 2:43 left in the first half, and the Panthers get a return of 33 yards to set themselves up at the Atlanta 35, which leads to what? Yup, a field goal with no time left on the clock. I said Kasey would be the threat to this play, and indeed he was. I’m not saying that a score in the last 2 minutes of the first half is uncommon, indeed no – it’s the most likely 2 minutes of the entire game to have a score! Why else would the line be between -180 for a score, and +160 for no score (average line)? Obviously, it is way more likely than not for there to be a field goal, at the least, in the final two minutes before half. I’m just saying that I was in pretty good shape with the Titans starting a drive at their own 24 with 1:51 left in the half. They converted 2 third downs, including one for 19 yards that set them up for the 37 yarder before half. The Panthers, if they have a league average punt return of 9.4 yards would’ve started the drive at their own 40 with 2:30 left in the half. Up until that point the only points they scored in the game came courtesy of a fumble return for a touchdown. I’m just sayin’ is all…lol. Both end of the half bets went down when a team that had scored zero points up till that point mustered a field goal.

2^nd, I had the “3 unanswered scores, “No”” bet at +145. It ended up with the same number of scores as the other game – Falcons 4, Panthers 3, for a total of 7. And, just like in the Titan/Jag game, each team had 2 consecutive scores only once. This may be the prop bet with the most value…when you pick your spots carefully. It’s hit 2 of 3 for me this year at +145, with the lone loss coming courtesy of the Packer 60 yard intereception return for a touchdown with a minute left in the game 2 weeks ago.

1 Unit: Falcons/Panthers Under 37 (bought the hook -117)/Winner

½ Unit: Falcons +0.5 1^st quarter, -115/Winner

½ Unit: “No Score last 2 minutes of the 1^st half,” +160/Loser

½ Unit: “3 Unanswered scores by a team – “No,”” +145/Winner

Bengals 21 – Ravens 7

It’s hard to cash a ticket on an Over 44.5 when one team goes 0 fer 7 in the red zone. Thank you very much, Bengals. At least Shane Graham connected on all 7 field goal attempts, including 5 in the second half to cash the second half Over and break even on the Overs in this game. The Ravens worked their usual offensive magic and were held scoreless until late in the game. I mean, come on, if you can’t score on the Bengals’ defense you’ve got a 16 year old, “before” photo for a ProActiv ad., math geek with Asperger Syndrome for an offensive coordinator. It wasn’t that they lacked for yards (272), they just failed to convert them into points at anything near the league average (17.5 points for 272 yards). If they had, and the Bengals had found the endzone on even 2 of their 7 red zone trips (+8 points), voila! 46 points and a cover. At least the Bengals were able to drop-kick the Ravens on their home turf by dropping those 7 kicks over the uprights. Has a team ever NOT scored any touchdowns in a game and won by a 14 point margin? AIverson, if you’re reading this, look it up, my man (or anyone else who carries a 30 year NFL database in their back pocket).

1 Unit: Bengals +4.5/Winner

½ Unit: Bengals/Ravens Over 44.5/Loser

½ Unit: Bengals/Ravens Over 20.5 2^nd half (-115)/Winner

Bears 17 – Raiders 6

This game must’ve been like watching leapers committing suicide on the Golden Gate Bridge: 1^st 90% an agonizing free-fall by two terrible teams, last 10% big splash for the Bears at the end of the game. Tough loss for Raider bettors, especially those who got the +3.5 later in the week.

½ Unit: Raiders +3/Loser

Lions 21 – Cardinals 31

The “tough at home” Cardinals didn’t disappoint those of us who hammered the early +1, +1.5 lines available early in the week. From the 2^nd quarter on out it was never in doubt. The Under 21.5 for the second half looked golden as the Cardinals had completely shut down the Lions’ run attack, and figured to run out the clock themselves in the 4^th quarter. In spite of 3 2^nd half touchdowns, I was hanging by the hook when the Lions mounted a late game drive (the hook being a huge factor in playing the Under for a full unit). When I made the halftime play, I wasn’t aware that the Cardinals’ excellent defensive end, Berry, was out of the game with an injury. The only back up to him that lines up on his side of the field is Joe Tafoya, who’s been injured a lot this year and done basically nothing. So I wasn’t aware that the Cardinals had lost their blind side QB rusher, and the Lions were of course going to be throwing almost non-stop the entire second half. It mighta’ deterred me, it just mighta’. Still, the bet was alive until the Lions scored on a touchdown pass with 1:15 left in the game, and it looked like a situation where they would’ve gone for it on 4^th down instead of kicking a field goal, as they were down by 17 points.

3/4^th Unit: Cardinals +1/Winner

1 Unit: Under 21.5 2^nd half/Loser

Cowboys 31 – Giants 20

The Giants caught enough breaks in the 1^st half to hang in there for a 17-17 halftime tie. No such luck in the second half as the superior Cowboys took it to them. The Giants hadn’t played a football game on American soil for 3 weeks – I thought they might come out in a 4-4-3 with Eli Manning in goal. They did put up a futbol like 3 points in the second half, so they might’ve had a little foreign soil underneath their fingernails still. Much was made of the “Blue Kool Aid” that the Giants’ backers might be drinking by betting them versus the Cowboys, and it did turn out to be pretty lethal stuff. The bottom line was this: the Giants have a below-average passing game, and the Cowboys have the second best in the league. That easy bit of information certainly helped my bottom line this past week.

1 Unit: Cowboys Pick/Winner

3/4^th Unit: Cowboys/Giants Under 24.5 1^st half/Loser

3/4^th Unit: Cowboys/Giants Under 24.5 2^nd half/Winner

Colts 21 – Chargers 23

I took the Colts -3 when the line first came out as my line was pretty close to that and I anticipated some line movement to set up a potential middle on the key numbers of 3 and 4. The line did jump right away, but then hovered at -3.5 -4 for the rest of the week. As the Colts’ injury reports became increasingly worse, I bet back on the Chargers +3.5 when I heard that Marvin Harrison didn’t even take the flight to San Diego. So I only had small opportunity for a win/push in the event of a Colts 3 point victory. The buy back did end up saving me, but it took a huge number of breaks for the Chargers to win that game…I mean colossally huge numbers of breaks (minus the one huge break the Colts got recovering the fumble for a touchdown in the endzone). I’m sure everyone is aware of D. Sproles’ 2 touchdown returns, and that Manning threw a career-high 6 interceptions. In spite of all that, the Colts were right there to win it until Adam Vinatearyourheartout semi-shanks a 29 yard field goal attempt.

1 Unit: Colts -3/Loser

1 Unit: Chargers +3.5/Winner

49ers 0 – Seahawks 24

I jumped on the Under in this game fairly early in the week when I was able to get an Under 40 at WSEX. I took it for 2 Units with the intention of buying back one of them if the weather didn’t pan out to be really terrible. Well, Monday morning the weather was looking like a tsunami had hit Seattle and I was feeling pretty gleeful. No buy backs for me, I was going to take the full 2 Units on the Under straight to the bank. Not only that, if the winds stayed high and gusty this would help slow down the Seahawk passing game and set SF up to compete in a closely contested ground game. I was feeling so gleeful that I bet 1/3^rd of a Unit on SF ML. I already had my middle opportunity in place with a Seahawks -3 last leg of a teaser and a 49ers +10 bet on the ledger. But then, the eye of the hurricane hovered over Qwest field for the entire game, allowing the Seahawks to utilize their superior passing game. Behind the whole game, the 49ers gambled and lost on 4^th downs, thus ensuring that they didn’t so much as cover a 13 point teaser. Blech, I was really banking on there being some bad weather to help the 49ers stay in it. Later in the afternoon, when the forecast had changed to 20 mph winds (very little felt in stadium) and maybe only occasional rain showers, it was time to buy back half of the original Under bet, which was the original plan. I was still able to get the buy back/middling opportunity at Over 36.5, though I felt, as stated in my post, that I felt that it was throwing money away, as I liked the Under in this game regardless of the weather. Turned out to be true, but I was able to recoup the lost middling try taking the Under 17 for the second half, plus a cherry on top with the Seahawks -4 2^nd half as well.

2 Units: Seattle/SF Under 40/Winner

1 Unit: Seattle/SF Over 36.5/Loser

1 Unit 2 team 7 point teaser: Seattle -3/Covered on a winning ticket

1 Unit: 49ers +10 (-115)/Loser

1/3 Unit: 49ers ML/Loser

1 Unit: Under 17 2^nd half (+111)/Winner

3/4^th Unit: Seahawks -4 2^nd half/Winner

Week #9: Game Sides: +0.4/Game Totals: +2.4/Teasers: +0.6

Halves: +1.8/Quarters: 0/Props n’ Parlays: +0.6

Week #9: +5.8 Units

I felt due for a good +6 Unit week as I’d been hovering a little below zero for the 3 weeks prior, and would’ve gotten there if not for the 49ers ML bet I made when the weather was looking really nasty, lol.

***Year to Date***

Game Sides: +7.2/Game Totals: +4.5/Teasers: +4.0

Halves: +1.2/Quarters: +0.5/Props n’ Parlays: +0.1

YTD: +17.4 Units/+7.53% ROI/Average bet size=0.79 Units, +21.9 average bets for year

I’d dug myself a little “2^nd half hole” when I hit a bad streak of 2^nd half plays early this season. While I felt that this was partially due to bad luck (aren’t all losses due to bad luck? Lol), it motivated me to build a second half line generator to quickly calculate lines for me, as well as the appropriate bet size according to the actual line and the value.

Taking my muddled head out of the split-second decision making needed to get 2^nd half bets in at the best available lines has proved very valuable, as 2^nd half bets have actually been my most profitable sector (my game totals are right there with them, though) since I implemented the system. I’m pleased as punch, and not of the blue Kool-Aid variety, either (Yuck, I never, ever liked Kool-Aid, even as a kid. The shit tastes like sugar water and color # whatever the artificial color happens to be).

Week #10 Recommened Plays

For Entertainment Purposes Only

These are the plays I posted at theRX.com NFL forum during the week, so the lines I played them at are often better than the lines available right now. The link to therx.com thread I have for this week is listed on the right side of the blog -- Week #10 discussion thread, I believe. From now on I'll be listing my recommended plays in this blog when I actually recommend them (ie. before the line changes).

1 Unit:

Vikings +6
Rams/Saints Over 44.5
Cowboys Pick
Panthers/Falcons Under 37
Bengals +4.5
49ers +10
Seahawks/49ers Under 40

3/4th Unit:

Cardinals +1
Rams +11.5


1/2 Unit:
Raiders +3
Vikings ML to win 1/2 Unit
Bills/Dolphins Over 40.5
Steelers/Browns Over 47.5
Eagles ML to win 1/2 Unit

I have other plays posted at therx -- but these are the only ones I like now.

My Week #10 Lines

Arghhh. First week posting to the blog and I had a royal screw up in my spreadsheet that I just fixed. Here are the corrected lines. Updated Friday 11/09/07

And another major update after getting the lastest, complete injury reports. ***Saturday night critical updates***

Legend
Visiting Team/Actual Pointspread/My Pointspread/Value
Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

Jacksonville/+5/+5.5/Tennessee 1.5% Value
Tennessee /35/ 35.5/Over 1.1% Value

Denver /+3 /+4/Kansas City 2.5% Value
Kansas City /37.5/ 38/Over 1.4% Value

Buffalo/ -4.5/-3/Buffalo 4.2% Value
Miami /41/ 41/No Value (though I like the Over)

Cleveland/+10/+8/Cleveland 3.8% Value
Pittsburgh/47/48.5/Over 3.7% Value

Saint Louis/+10.5/+8.5/Saint Louis 3.8% Value
New Orleans/46/48.5/Over 5.5% Value

Atlanta/+3.5/+2/Atlanta 4.1% Value
Carolina/36/33.5/Under 7.6% Value

Philadelphia/+2.5/+1.5/Eagles 2.2% Value
Washington/37.5/38.5/Over 3.2% Value

Minnesota/+5.5/+1/Vikings 10.9% Value
GreenBay/40.5/41/Over 0.7% Value

Cincinnati/+3.5/+2/Cincinnati 3.5% Value
Baltimore/44.5/46/Over 2.8% Value

Chicago/-3.5/-2/Oakland 3.8% Value
Oakland/38/40/Over 4.7% Value

Dallas/-1.5/-7.5/Dallas 11.8% Value
NY Giants/49/48/Under 1.9% Value

Detroit/+1.5/+4/Arizona 6.0% Value
Arizona/45/45.5/Over 0.8% Value

Indianapolis/-3.5/-3/San Diego 0.6% Value
SanDiego/48/48.5/Over 1.3% Value

San Francisco/+9.5/+5/San Francisco 11.7% Value
Seattle/38/36.5/Under 4.3% Value

Write ups for each game will be posted throughout the rest of the week.

Week #9 Wrap Up

Week #9 Recap:

Jets 20 – Redskins 23 OT

It’s never a good feeling when a -3.5 bet becomes -10.5 a scant ten second into the game. Such was the case when the Jets ran the opening kickoff back for a TD versus the ‘Skins. The ‘Skins ground there way back, chewing up big yards on the ground throughout the game, and won in overtime, falling, alas, a half point shy of the game cover.

½ Unit each: Over 35 & Under 36/Ate some juice.

1 Unit: Redskins -3.5/Loser

1 Unit: 2^nd half Redskins -3/Winner

½ Unit: 2^nd half Over 17.5/Loser (by half a point. The hook on 17 is obviously a huge one, but because the Redskins were down 17-9 at half I knew they would probably go for a 2-point conversion on the next TD they scored, making the 17.5 as good as a 17. That did end up happening, and the Redskins converted the 2 point conversion, but there were only 3 field goals kicked besides that in the second half/OT , instead of the one touchdown and a field goal I needed to cover.)

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Chiefs 22 – Packers 33

4^th quarter Fists of Flurry in this one. At halftime, the Packers were clearly dominating the Chiefs despite being down 7-6 on the scoreboard. I jumped on the Packers +0.5 for the 2^nd half. At the end of the 3^rd quarter, the score stood at 13-7 Packers, looking very good for my Packers 2^nd half and game Under 38.5 bet. 18.5 points of head room on the total…swallowed up by a 35 point 4^th Quarter? WTF… The good news was that the Packers won, as I had more on the 2^nd half bet than the game total. The bad news (other than losing the Under 38.5)? I had a “3 Unanswered Scores – No” bet that was alive until Charles Woodson picked off a Huard pass and ran it back 60 yards or something with 1:10 left in the game. Sweet Hayseuss. The Chiefs need 70-80 yards in 1:10 + the touchdown for me to lose the 2^nd half Packer bet. I like my chances. Even if they do manage the last minute win, at least my “No 3 Scores” bet is still alive and recoups 2/3rds of the 2^nd half Packer loss. But like I said, you don’t expect a team to score the touchdown with 1:10 left and a long field to go. Up yours, Chuck Woodson. Everyone knows you’re just supposed to go to the ground and protect the ball when you get an interception near the end of the game. That pick wasn’t even on a quick throw to the outside where no one has a chance to catch him, lol, the ball was thrown deep and the Chiefs put up a shite effort in tackling him because the game was over at that point. Bit o’ bad luck with that pick 6.

Packers ML/Chiefs ML/Ate some juice.

3/4^th Unit: Under 38.5/Loser

½ Unit +140: 3 Unanswered Scores – No/Loser

1 Unit: Packers +0.5 2^nd half/Winner

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Bucs 17 – Cards 10

Ah, the Over of the week. Opened at 36, closed at 38.5/39. The Cardinals’ offense put up a disappointing 10 points in this contest. The Bucs, not much better with 17 off of 350 yards of total offense. The total yards per point math said there should’ve been 35.2 points in this game, still Under, damn. Still, it had a good chance in the 4^th Quarter. The Cardinals just needed to score a touchdown to tie the game at 17-17, the magic score that turns 34 points into 37 if it goes to OT. Part of the value in betting Over 36 when the line first came out was for precisely this, being on the right side of 37 in a game with a 3.5 pointspread (smallish spread = greater chance of a 17-17 tie). But…no dice. The Cardinals had burned their timeouts and couldn’t challenge an interception the Bucs made that would’ve been overturned.

1 Unit: Bucs/Cards Over 36/Loser

13 point teaser: Bucs/Cards Over 25.5/Covered

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Titans 20 – Panthers 7

Remember the Titans have been playing pretty good defense this year? Remember the Panthers have issues at QB? Remember to bet the Titans in this one? 20-0 until the Panthers get a meaningless 4^th quarter score.

1 Unit: Titans -4/Winner

(There was one second half bet that I’d intended to play but didn’t get down on during the halftime flurry, and that was the Under 16.5 in this one. My 2^nd half O/U line was 9.5, so there was plenty of room between that and 16.5. 16.5 is always a number you wish was 17 when you’re looking to bet the Under, but I was prepared to bet 3/4^th of a Unit, as my system will bet a maximum of 3/4^th of a Unit on any Under that it likes with a total of less than 17. So I missed the winner here, as there were 14 points in the second half. Bites.)

Falcons 20 – 49ers 16

Hip, hip, Hooooo…ah, screw it. Just because this was the only game of the week in which I caught a big break with around 2 minutes left in the game is no cause for celebration. As you may know, the 49ers turned it over deep in their own territory late in the 4^th, setting the Falcons up for a covering field goal while preserving the Under 37. The crap-fiesta went down as planned basically, as I’d predicted a 20 – 14 final score.

3/4^th Unit: Falcons -3/Winner

½ Unit: Under 37/Winner

½ Unit: No score last 2 minutes of first half +160/Winner

Saints 41 – Jaguars 24

I was liking the Saints and Over during the week, but never pulled the trigger on a straight bet, as the value was borderline. Still, I got down on a little 1^st half Saints and Over parlay because of their recent tendency to pile up points in the first half. It’s always nice when a bet goes right and you look like a friggin’ genius, lol. I also had unposted straight bets on the Saints 1^st half and Over, so I picked up an off-the-records Unit in addition to the on-the-record parlay. The Jaguars didn’t even need to contribute a single point for the parlay to cash, but added a FG and 2 TDs on a kickoff return and 80 yard pass. At 17-17 I was getting a little worried, but the Saints came through with another solid drive and TD before the half. The 2^nd half line came out at Saints -0.5, with an O/U of 20.5. My system generated an O/U line of 29, so I was all over the Over which cruised in comfortably with 24 points for the win.

1/3 Unit Parlay: Saints -2.5 & Over 20 1^st half/Winner

1 Unit: 2^nd half Over 20.5/Winner

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Lions 44 – Broncos 7

My line had the Lions favored at -4.5, so I was looking real hard at taking them -3 with a large glass of plus juice. Instead I opted for just the Over, as both teams figured to have good offensive days. Well, one team did, and fortunately the other team, the Broncos, were able to contribute some turnovers for scores and one garbage time TD to cash an Over that looked pretty lifeless at halftime.

3/4^th Unit: Lions/Broncos Over 45.5/Winner

Bills 32 – Bengals 22

This turned out to be a kicking myself game. I got the Bengals +2 early in the week, but by the time the game was about to kickoff my line was Bills -1, so with the line then at Bengals -1, I was planning on taking the Bills +1 and just going for the small middle. I’d stated that that’s what I was going to do in my posts. So, I sat there hoping and waiting for +1.5, which briefly appeared, but was gone before I could get down it. I ended up betting the Bills +1 for a ½ Unit, but let my stupid brain override the small middling play and just go for the win with the Bengals +2. All was looking pretty good until the 4^th quarter, where the Bills outscored the Bengals 17-0 to turn what was looking like a ½ Unit gain into what should’ve been a little hit of juice, but ended up being a ½ Unit loss on my record. Did you see that ball that Chad Johnson dropped in the 4^th quarter? Right in his freaking hands.

½ Unit: Bengals +2/Loser

Vikings 34 – Chargers 17

Speaking of games in which I just didn’t trust my spreadsheet…and once gain paid the price. It just seemed so simple, I outlined in great detail how the Chargers could cruise to an easy victory in this game. I guess they didn’t get the memo, especially the underlined section about tackling Adrian Peterson. Without the fluke missed FG return for a touchdown before halftime, the Chargers lose this game 34-10. Ouch. It’s funny, 75-80% of the time when I go against my spreadsheet I lose. This year, when I’ve taken the big dogs my sheet recommends, those dogs have generally been run over like rabid strays hit by a Mack truck (Well, they’ve lost anyway, though some were competitive). I haven’t looked at the Chinese calendar this year, but I’m pretty sure it’s not the year of the big dog. Luckily the books hung an attractive halftime line of Vikings +3, so I could get off of the Chargers -7 play scott free, thankfully, as the Vikings outplayed the Chargers in the first half in spite of being down 14-7.

½ Unit: Vikings/Chargers Over 41/Winner

½ Unit: Vikings/Chargers Under 42.5/Loser

½ Unit: Chargers -7/Loser

½ Unit: Vikings +3 2^nd half/Winner

½ Unit: Vikings/Chargers 2^nd half Under 20/Loser

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Browns 33 – Seahawks 30 OT

If it looks like a shoot-out, smells like a shoot-out, tastes like a shoot-out, it’s probably a shoot-out. The Browns are an Over Machine team. I like the Over this week versus Pittsburgh as well, but haven’t decided whether to play it or not yet.

½ Unit: Browns/Seahawks Over 47/Winner

13 point teaser: Over 34/Covered

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Colts 20 – Patriots 24

The Colts came into this game without the services of Marvin Harrison. Big concern – dropped the Over 56 play to a ½ Unit. His replacement, Gonzalez, breaks his hand. Even more concern. His replacement, Aaron Moorehead, drops a ball thrown right to his hands in the 4^th quarter. This Aaron dude needs more hands and less head. More head means he probably over thought that ball right out of hands. Aaron Lesshands has only 4 catches on the year, but I’m pretty sure they counted them from a mid-week scrimmage just so that he wouldn’t have a goose egg on his stats so that opposing teams would spend 30 seconds of the week instead of zero game planning against the amazing Aaron Lesshands. 30 seconds spent on Aaron Lesshands means 30 seconds less on Reggie Wayne, but Reggie negated the edge he’d acquired by having the Patriots be forced to game plan for Aaron Lesshands by dropping a perfectly thrown ball that would’ve either scored right then or there or been a first down in the red zone. The referees, seeing the potential unstopability of Aaron Lesshands, realized that the Patriots’ secondary would rather maul another receiver and incur a pass-interference penalty than have Aaron Lesshands beat them in single to almost-zero coverage. Except the Patriots actually didn’t interfere on the big plays, but the referees knew that in the Patriots’ secondaries’ hearts of heart that they wanted to, so they flagged them anyway.

The Colts, being the “good guys” in this epic battle of good versus evil, were instantly overwhelmed with feelings of guilt for having been the beneficiaries of such poor calls, and decided to just kick field goals once they were inside the 10, just so they could get their karma back to even. They went overboard, though, and let the Patriots make up a 10-point deficit and win in the last 9 minutes of the game. Peyton will be a candidate for sainthood (even though he plays for the secular Colts and not for the collegiate Catholic school upstate) for his generous forward lateral to a waiting defender – a true act of martyrdom. The referees were so touched by his selfless and teamless act that they ruled the play a fumble instead of the obvious forward lateral that it clearly was. Lesson to be learned? Sign receivers with the last name of Moorehand, and never, ever forget that playing sports is always best done without a conscience and without showing mercy to the opponent – just ask the Patriots.

½ Unit: Colts +4.5/Winner

½ Unit: Colts ML/Loser

½ Unit: Colts Over 56/Loser (plus a little more juice after buying back from a full unit)

½ Unit: Colts/Patriots Over 27.5 2^nd half/Loser

Raiders 17 – Texans 24

Texans up 17-0 at halftime, cruised in for the win. Rosenfels filled in adequately for Schaub, McCown struggled a bit in his first game back, and the Texans’ running game got healthy (though Ahman Green got unhealthy again) versus the horrible Raiders’ rush defense. It’s nice when they stick to the script.

½ Unit: Texans +3/Winner

To win ½ Unit: Texans ML/Winner

½ Unit: First score will be a FG or safety +120 (Texans go for it on 4^th and one at the 5 instead of kicking the FG, and score a TD a play or two later)/Loser

13 point teaser: Texans +16/Covered

Eagles 17 – Cowboys 38 Steelers 38 – Ravens 7

Here we have our Sunday and Monday nighters. I’m going to lump these bitches together after the lumps these two games bitch-slapped me with. The Fist of the NFL Gods decided it’d found a good home for its’ hand, so I’ve been typing this whole #!&$@ recap standing up. Eagles’ first possession, QB fumble leads to Dallas touchdown. Bad news for bets on the Eagles and Under. Ravens’ first possession, QB fumble leads to Steelers touchdown. Bad news for Ravens bet and Under 1^st half. Repeat ad nauseam until I’m forced to take a 20 minute walk while tivoing the rest of the first halves. Well, not the entire rest of the first halves, because I have to be caught up before halftime so I can enter in the stats and get ready for potential halftime action. The second half of the Steelers/Ravens game offered a bailout, fortunately, in the form of halftime bets on the Steelers and Under. Back to the first half…4 turnovers inside your own 50 that lead to 28 points? I’m not sure that’s ever been done before in the NFL, lol. Big Ben getting the 2^nd perfect QB rating of his career in a downpour that bordered on torrential from time to time? Effin’ A, if I’d been betting that the bad breaks going against the Ravens and 1^st half Under would eventually end using a Martingale system, I’d have been broke halfway before the streak ended!!!

3/4^th Unit: Eagles/Cowboys Under 47/Loser

1/3 Unit: Eagles ML/Loser

½ Unit: Eagles/Cowboys Under 22.5 2^nd half/Loser

½ Unit: Ravens +9.5/Loser

½ Unit: Steelers/Ravens Under 17.5 1^st half/Loser

1 Unit: Steelers/Ravens Under 37/Loser

1 Unit: Steelers/Ravens Over 36/Winner

1 Unit: Steelers Pick 2^nd half/Winner

1 Unit: Steelers/Ravens Under 17 2^nd half (-125)/Winner

13 point teaser: Ravens +22.5/Loser, after the first legs were in. Hedging is for chicken shits, lol.

Week #9 Unit Recap: Game Sides: -0.9/Game Totals: -1.6/Teasers: -1.2

Halves: +2.9/Props n’ Parlays: +0.7

Week #9: Zero, zip nada – came out dead even (when rounded off in the computer to one tenth of a Unit).

A pretty blah week on the totals, as the 35 4^th quarter points in Kansas City needed to be shipped a little further east in the Midwest to Indianapolis. Had that been the case, I’m a winner baby! Lol. I thought that my 3 unanswered scores bet was a winner until I logged into Bookmaker last night and saw that it was graded as a loser. I’d lost track of a little field goal the Packers made in the 4^th q., so I didn’t realize that the Charles Woodson interception returned for a meaningless score with a minute left cost me the bet. The one real positive in a week where I handicapped at a return of zero cents an hour was the performance of my new 2^nd half line generator. I’d fine-tuned the system during the week and it performed more than admirably, going 5-0 on its’ top/1 Unit 2^nd half plays. Okay, so I only went 1-4 on ½ Unit plays, but one of those, the Colts/Pats second half Over, wasn’t a recommended play, so that’s 1-3. Plus, I didn’t get down a Titans/Panthers Under 16.5 for 3/4^th of a Unit like I’d intended to…you get the picture, lol. I’m pleased with this quick-line generator, as coming up with a line and getting your bets in before the line or juice changes is the biggest time challenge during the entire week.

Year to Date: Sides: +6.8/Totals: +2.1/Teasers: +3.5/Halves: -0.6/Q’s: +0.5/P&P: -0.5

YTD: +11.7 Units, +5.93% ROI

The past 3 weeks have been stagnant, down a little over one Unit for that stretch. It all started honestly, with the trip to Chicago. I couldn’t get everything done I needed to, and I wasn’t able to get the early lines for the week after, which cost me 1 Unit on the NO/SF Under. The line opened at 41, and I was only able to get 40.5 on Tuesday. The game ended on 41, of course. Still, the second half of the season has traditionally been my strongest, and I’m soooo due to break out with a big week of +6 Units or better, knock on wood! If the NFL God decides to keep his fist to himself during the Sunday and Monday night games in November, I might actually have a chance, lol.

Week 9 Lines & Write Ups

Week #9: My Lines

Legend:

Home Team/Actual Pointspread/My Pointspread/Value

Away Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

JETS/+3.5/+8.5/REDSKINS 14.7% VALUE

REDSKINS/35.5/35.5/NO VALUE

The Jets are starting the inexperienced QB Kellen Clemens now that their season is a bust. He hasn’t played much in his 2 years in the league, and hasn’t looked good when he has. Lavernues Coles, WR, is questionable after sustaining a concussion last week. It doesn’t look good for the Jets’ offense this week versus a normally pretty-good Redskin defense looking to rebound from the pummeling they took from the Patriots last week. Carlos Rogers, CB for Washington, is out for the year, but Fred Smoot will be back in at that position for the ‘Skins. Clinton Portis, RB, who injured his hand in the game versus the Patriots, is probable for week 9.

The Redskins continue to battle injuries on the offensive line, but should be just healthy enough to keep a weak Jets’ pass rush from getting to Jason Campbell like the Patriots did. With time, Campbell is capable of making some good throws. He may have worked on protecting the ball while in the pocket this week as well, lol. At any rate, the Jets’ pass defense has been horrific, rating 2^nd to last in the NFL by my adjusted numbers.

The Redskins’ rushing game has really tailed off after the first two games of the season, but should find enough success versus a mediocre Jets’ defense to present some favorable passing situations for the Redskins. The Jets’ have the 6^th worst rush attack in the league, and will be going up against the 6^th best rush defense, so K. Clemens is really going to be put into some long 2^nd and 3^rd downs which will allow the Redskins’ defense to tee off on him, as the Redskins are better than the league average at sacking opposing QBs, while the Jets’ give up more than the league average.

Final Score Prediction: Jets 14 – Redskins 23

CHIEFS/-2.5/-3/CHIEFS 1.1% VALUE

PACKERS/37/36/UNDER 2.7% VALUE

The Packers made quick work of winning the game in OT last Monday night, and it’s a good thing, because if any team is going to need their rest, it’s them. While the Packers (Brett Favre and Donald Driver aside) are one of the youngest teams in the NFL, they’re facing the trifecta of tiredness related factors in their upcoming game. First, the Chiefs are coming off a bye, one bonus point for them. Secondly, the Packers are traveling for their second consecutive road game, another bonus point for the Chiefs. Thirdly, the Packers played on Monday night so they’ll be coming into this game on a short week. 3^rd bonus point for the Chiefs. I mean, really, did the Packers spend Monday night in Denver, hop on a bus and drive due east to Kansas City (one of the most boring stretches of land you’ll ever drive) to get ready for this week’s early game? If not, they may as well have. I’m not a great believer in letdowns for teams that are playing well, but this one has all the earmarks.

The Chiefs have the potential to be the healthiest they’ve ever been coming out of this bye. Eddie Kennison is probable at WR, and Kyle Turley may be back on the offensive line. That’s good news for the Chiefs, as they’ll need all of their weapons versus a good Packer defense. The Chiefs’ defense is better than average across the board, so the Packers should go back to getting less than a hundred yards on the ground this week, especially now that they’ll be without last week’s starter at RB, Deshawn Wynn, for the rest of the season. The edge in the passing game goes to the Packers, as their air attack has been much more productive than the Chiefs, and should have more success than Huard and Co. in spite of the Chiefs sporting the better pass defense of the two teams. All in all, now too close to call.

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 20 – Packers 16

BUCS/-3.5/-4.5/BUCS 2.0% VALUE

CARDS/38/42/OVER 10.5% VALUE

As predicted when the opening total of 36 came out, the books brought a water balloon to a tack factory with this one – the line has been pounded up to 38 and is still rising. The Bucs have numerous “questionable” players on both sides of the ball, so who goes and who doesn’t may determine who covers the spread in this one. The Cardinals are better at defending the pass than the run, but the Bucs should still have success as Garcia has been having a stellar year – the Bucs have the 6^th best passing game by my numbers. The Bucs pass defense has been very good, 2^nd best in the league, so they should prevent Kurt Warner and his talented group of receivers from moving the ball as well as they’re used to. The Bucs are actually a little worse than league average at defending the run, but match up well versus a Cardinal running game that produces almost 1/3^rd of a yard less than the league average per run. Both teams should try to attack with balanced offensive play-calling, as the match ups dictate. The Cardinals are coming off of a bye, but are in the tough position of playing an early game on the east coast. This one is too close to take a position on, but there’s still value in the Over.

Final Score Prediction: Bucs 23 – Cards 20

TITANS/-4/-8/TITANS 11% VALUE

PANTHERS/35.5/35.5/NO VALUE

Okay, so Vince Young is not as good of a passer as Kerry Collins. But don’t go overboard thinking that the Titans’ pass attack is anemic with Vince Young at the helm. Er, actually, go ahead and think that, they are anemic with Vince Young at the helm. Last week with VY the Titans only threw 14 passes the entire game, as the injured defensive line of the Raiders was rightfully the best part of the defense to attack – they’re last in the league in yards per rush allowed, for cry-eye, while their pass defense is 8^th best in the league. So yeah, I wouldn’t put too much stock in VY’s performance last week, especially considering his quad was still sore. I’m hoping it will be better this week, as my money is already down on the Titans. Good news for VY this week, he’s facing a sub-par Panther secondary, and he gets Brandon Jones back, a talented young receiver. But then again, the only 2 games in which the Titans had more than 200 yards passing were the ones in which Kerry Collins played. The only game this season in which VY has thrown for better than the league average per pass was versus the Saints, who sport one of the worst pass defenses around. The Titans are a run-first team, but VY will have to have some success in the air this week for the Titans to cover.

David “Less Reliable than a Chrysler K” Carr starts at QB for Carolina by default, and he’s going to have to get something going through the air, as the Titans have the 3^rd best rush defense in the league. Of course, the Panthers have been pretty good running the ball this year, but have only faced two better than average rush defenses; the Saints’ and the Colts’, and against them they only averaged 3.14 and 3.27 yards per carry, respectively, so it looks to be a long day (or short one, when it comes to time of possession) for the Panther offense in Nashville.

Final Score Prediction: Titans 21 – Panthers 14

FALCONS/49ERS/-3.5/-6/FALCONS 7.2% VALUE

49ERS/37/34.5/UNDER 5.5% VALUE

On stats alone, my total comes to 37.5 in this game. I have a point-value I assign to each team based on their offensive talent, mostly related to the QB talent , and that’s what has lowered this number to 34.5 (Does anyone dispute the lack of talent at QB that these two teams will line up behind center in Atlanta this Sunday?) I hate playing Unders in domes, but this is awfully close to playable. Bad news for the 49ers as Frank Gore reinjured his bum ankle last week, but wait, I just saw on the RxOdds update that he’s probable for this week. Still, it seems that his ankle will bother him for the rest of the season. Alex Smith wasn’t horrible last week, but considering he was facing the worst pass defense in the league, he doesn’t look to have much upside coming back from his shoulder injury either. The Falcons at least bring 2 healthy starting running backs, and a healthy, if only serviceable QB in Joey Harrington to compete in this crap-fiesta of a game, which should ensure them a 3 point home victory at worst

Final Score Prediction: Falcons 20 – 49ers 14

SAINTS/-3.5/-5/SAINTS 4.0% VALUE

JAGUARS/40/40.5/OVER 0.7% VALUE

The Saints’ passing game appears to be back on track after getting off to a rough start (versus some good pass defenses, actually), and now square off at home versus the Jaguars. Drew Brees will go to the air early and often because it will be matching the strength of their offense versus the weaker half of the Jaguar defense. You might as well throw an incomplete pass on 1^st down than run Reggie Bush and lose 2. Luckily for the Saints’ pathetic pass defense, they’ll be facing Quentin Gray in his 2^nd NFL start. If they can avoid the major mistakes, it’ll be hard for Mr. Gray to consistently beat them through the air. The Jaguars will of course try to dominate with their 4^th ranked running game. Unfortunately for them, that’s the strength of the Saints’ defense. As things stand, the Saints have the best matchups possible in this game, and should continue their improved play with a home victory.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 23 – Jaguars 17

LIONS/-3/-4.5/LIONS 3.5% VALUE

BRONCOS/46/50/OVER 9.1% VALUE

Intriguing match up pitting the ascending Lions versus the descending Broncos. Realistically, the Lions are probably not as good as one might think, and the Broncos not as bad. Still, the Lions are a team getting healthier, while the Broncos have been dealing with various injuries as of late. The Lions offense is at near full strength after some early season injuries, while the Broncos still have nagging injuries in their secondary, which doesn’t help when paired with a piss-poor run defense. The Lions, a pass-happy team, are actually right near the league average when it comes to yards per carry. Defensively, they’ve been pretty good against the run, near ¼ of yard better than league average. Versus the pass, the Lions haven’t been quite so good, so I’d expect Cutler to have a pretty big day, as the Broncos have the 9^th best pass attack. Neither team should blow each other out, so I’d expect both offenses to be running at full strength until the final possession of the game, which will help the Over, the best play available in this game.

Final Score Prediction: Lions 27 – Broncos 23

BILLS/+1/-1/BILLS 4.4% VALUE

BENGALS/43/43/NO VALUE

The Bills should be getting some injured defenders back on the field this week – Lord knows they need them. JP Losman gets his job back at QB, while Carson Palmer continues to be “Best Quarterback on a Bad Team.” Rudi Johnson returns at RB for the Bengals, but Kenny Watson is questionable. Watson has played better than Rudi, so it’s a wash if Watson ends up sitting this one out. The Bengals have averaged 6.97 yards per pass, the Bills 5.4. That’s a pretty large advantage when you consider that success in the passing game is the most important statistic there is when it comes to winning football games. Both teams have had poor pass defenses, with the Bengals’ being worse by more than 1/3 of a yard. Both teams are below league average at running the ball, and worse than league average at defending it, with the Bengals being a little bit worse than the Bills. The Bengals, in spite of playing behind so often, have only allowed 1.26 sacks per game, while the Bills have allowed 2.34. The Bengals have averaged getting 1.66 sacks per game, the Bills only 1.01 (these are adjusted numbers). With this information, it looks as if Carson Palmer will have enough time in the pocket to pick apart the Bills defense. I played the Bengals when they were +2 earlier in the week, and I’ll probably let that play ride because of the advantage they have in the passing game.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 21 – Bengals 21 (Bengals get a FG and the win in OT, lol, in contradiction to my line.)

VIKINGS/+7/+4/VIKINGS 7.9% VALUE

CHARGERS/41.5/42.5/OVER 2.7% VALUE

Going by my spreadsheets calculations, the Vikings will score 21 points in this game. I’m not sure I believe it, lol. I mean, the only way the Vikings move the ball consistently is with the run, and that’s the strength of the Charger defense. The Vikings are pretty much tied with the Titans for the second worst passing game in the league. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor will be facing a lot of 7 and 8 men in the box. On the plus side, if they can break through that, they’ll have a lot of open room to run in, lol. The Vikings have only averaged 18.7 points per game this year. The statistics for the Vikings are skewed by the one huge day Adrian Peterson had versus the Bears is what it comes down to, I believe.

Conversely, how will LT fare in his match up versus the ferocious Viking run defense? Maybe last week’s game will give us a clue, as Brian Westbrook is a running back comparable in style to LT. Last week, BW ran the ball 21 times for 46 yards. That stinks. He and Buckhalter, however, each caught 4 passes out of the backfield for 74 yards. LT has 26 receptions this year that account for more than 1/4^th of his total yards, so it looks like the Chargers will probably have to throw the ball to LT a higher proportion of the time than they’re used to just to get him away from the Vikings’ stout defensive line. Phillip Rivers is quietly having a very good yard leading the 6^th best pass attack by my rescored calculations. As Donovan McNabb showed last week, you can go into Minnesota, pass the ball, and win. On the surface, it seems that the Chargers should be able to move the ball much more effectively than the one-dimensional Vikings, so I’m leery of taking the points on the home dog. I think everyone is leery to bet this game one way or the other, actually, and the line has basically stayed put. The Over, however, has moved up a half a point. Is it the Vikings that are going to be contributing the points to this Over? It seems…dubious. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Chargers go for near 30 points to help the Over, but I’m only confident enough to put a half unit on the Over 41, and probably wouldn’t bother at the current 41.5 you’ll find at most shops. ***Update*** Bobby Wade is now doubtful at WR for the Vikings, and Troy Williamson, also WR, is questionable because he’s been out of town all week for a funeral. Bobby Wade has been their most productive receiver, and Williamson their 3^rd best option at WR, (though he is a starter). How on earth are the Vikings going to be able to make up a deficit here? Unless T. Jackson’s busted finger has been replaced with a laser pointer he’s going to have a hard time hooking up with his receivers this week. Antoine Winfield, their best cornerback, is also questionable this week.

Final Score Prediction: Vikings 19 – Chargers 23 (This is my spreadsheet line, I would probably adjust it to favor the Chargers by more as the Vikings stats are skewed by the huge day they had versus the Bears. Kind of like how Chester’s 98 yard run versus the Seahawks early last year skewed their stats for several games to come.)

BROWNS/-1/-3/BROWNS 4.3% VALUE

SEAHAWKS/46.5/48/OVER 3.6% VALUE

It’s looking less likely that Deion Branch will be returning at WR for the Seahawks this week, but at least they’ll be getting a lesser receiver, DJ Hackett, back in the lineup. DJ was injured in the first game of the year, and is now just returning. Matt Hasselbeck will be playing in spite of continuing to be bothered by a pulled oblique muscle. That’s somewhere on your back, right? Lol Hopefully he won’t be too bothered, because I’m already on the Over 46.5 for a half unit, as the Over machine known as the Browns just happen to be involved in this game. Run it at them, throw it at them, either way you’re going to get good yards versus the Brownies. They have a balanced defense – they’re equally bad at stopping the run and the pass. Fortunately, though, their air attack with big-shoed and big-armed Derek Anderson chucking the ball around to Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow has gained even more yards per pass than their defense has allowed. While their running game can’t boast doing the same when compared to their poor run defense, they’re not far behind and are still averaging 4.57 yards per carry, a full half yard better than the league average. Plus, Jamal Lewis looks to be at full strength for the first time in a month coming into this game, and he’s averaged 4.71 ypc this year. The Seahawks’ rush defense is right near the league average, so the Browns should be able to establish a good run game. That will help, because the Seahawks have a better than average pass defense, though this will be the most potent aerial attack the Seahawks have faced this year, as only the Patriots, Colts and Cowboys have a higher average ypp than the Browns. So, the Browns will get theirs on offense.

Can the Seahawks keep pace? The running game featuring Shawn Alexander has been a disappointment this year, averaging a measly 3.53 ypc; but when matched up against the poor run defense of the Browns, the Seahawks should manage better than 4 yards a carry. The Seahawks have been better than the league average in the passing department, and should find even more success than normal versus the Browns’ pass defense. So, both teams should gitter’ done, according to myself and Larry the Cable Guy. It should also be a pretty close game with points down to the wire, that’s why I played the Over 46.5 even though I’m showing marginal value with my total of 48.

The Browns come into this game healthier, and have a small advantage in the passing and running match ups. The Seahawks have the advantage in the turnover department, as well as pressuring and sacking the quarterback. The Browns are more penalty prone, but better in the red zone match ups. I’ll be jiggered, this one comes down to home field advantage when it’s all said and done.

Final Score Prediction: Browns 26 – Seahawks 23

COLTS/+5/-3/COLTS 14.6% VALUE

PATRIOTS/56.5/58.5/OVER 3.8% VALUE

Well here it is, the big daddy of them all. The Patriots enter this game with the best passing offense of all time. No joke. Their speedy receivers will thrive in the windless, turfed environs of the RCA dome. Can the Colts’ defense slow them down? Somewhat, I think. The Colts rely on their front 4 of their 4-3 defense to pressure the quarterback. That D-line is responsible for 9 of the 12 sacks the Colts have recorded this year. They can probably afford to drop more LB’s into coverage than the Patriots can. The bad news for the Colts, though, is that their linebacking corps has been hit upside the head as of late. Literally. F. Keiaho is still recuperating from a concussion, and T. Hagler from a neck injury – they’re both game decisions right now, but you’ve got to figure that at least one of them will play because the play the same position. Rob Morris is already lost for the year on the other end of the LB line, but he’s not likely to be making the trip to Hawaii for the Pro Bowl any year soon. An injured and marginally talented group of linebackers is not what you want to bring to a game versus the Patriots, who’ll pick apart your weaknesses like a 5-year old picking at scabs. The Patriots, who utilize a base 3-4 defense, like to blitz linebackers from any position. That’s to be expected when you only have a 3-man front line. The Patriots’ linebackers have recorded 13 sacks this year, their secondary 1, and their front three 6.5. While Peyton Manning is as good as it gets at adjusting at the line of scrimmage, I still expect the Patriots different blitz packages to be more effective than the Colts, and by rounding the numbers have the Patriots logging 2 sacks, and the Colts just one.

The Patriots have faced over 5% more passing plays by their opponents than the Colts, however. By my adjusted numbers, the Patriots have averaged around 3 sacks a game, and the Colts a bit less than two. Brady (or the backups they put in in the last 2 minutes of a game they’re up at least 21 points in) have been sacked at an adjusted rate of .87 times per game, while throwing the ball 51.3% of the time. The Patriots have thrown the ball 3.2% less of the time than the league average, so maybe that takes the edge off of the “running up the score” argument a bit. The Colts have averaged 1.74 sacks per game, and given up .5 while throwing the ball, well I’ll be darned, 51.3% percent of the time. It’ll be interesting to see if the Colts do indeed drop back more into coverage while the Patriots bring more heat in this game. These may be the best strategies versus virtually unstoppable offenses.

In the passing game, the edge goes to the Patriots, but the Colts will also manage to throw for well over the league average per pass. The Colts should have slightly better success running the ball. The Colts have a faced a tougher schedule, and that’s no small matter.

So I see it coming down to this, can the Colts home field advantage and tougher strength of schedule overcome the Patriots’ superior pass attack and healthier squad? Because Peyton Manning is the only QB in the league capable of exploiting the Patriots’ defense like the Patriots’ offense will exploit theirs, I have to go with the value on the defending champs, undefeated, playing at home. Things to worry about? Yup – the Patriots have covered every game. The Football Outsiders like the Pats to win by 10 (though they’re from Boston, friggin’ homers, lol. I jest, these guys know the game better than anyone. We’re in agreement on pretty much every game this week except for this one.) The Colts’ linebacking corps likely chasing after plays all day with their concussed heads.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 31 – Patriots 28

RAIDERS/-3/-0.5/TEXANS 6.3% VALUE

TEXANS/41/42/OVER 3.0% VALUE

It just came over the wire that Andre Johnson, WR Houston, is OUT for this game. Considering he’s only played in one game plus change, the difference between questionable and out is very tiny in my system. When he’s probable, of course, that’ll boost the Texans’ line. Ahman Green, also just updated is probable. That’s a big boost for the Texans if he’s near full strength. The Raiders have the worst rush defense in the league, and they’ve just lost Tommie Kelly from the middle of their line, to boot. The Texans, who’ve been pretty miserable running the ball so far this year (partially due to various injuries) should pound the ball right at them and then work the play-action pass to great affect if Oakland over-compensates. Yes, Matt Schaub will be watching this one from the sidelines, but Sage Rosenfels has a nearly identical completion %, and actually a better touchdown to interception ratio.

The Texans’ run defense has not been scaring anyone much, but they’re still a full yard better per play than the Raiders. The Raiders do bring a decent running game, but hey, that’s why I have this capped at a close game, and am taking the value with the dog. The Texans have such a big advantage in the passing match ups (and that includes adding value to the Raiders for starting McCown) that the value I see in them seems fully justified.

EAGLES/+3/0/EAGLES 6.1% VALUE

COWBOYS/46.5/43.5/UNDER 6.9% VALUE

Maybe Andy Reid should ransack the shelves of the drug emporium he lives in to find some coke or uppers to give to his team before each half of this game! Nah, the Eagles will be pretty pumped as it is, being a big rivalry game and all. In the lastest injury news, it looks like Brian Dawkins will see some limited action this week for the Eagles, as well as Anthony Henry for the Cowboys. Me likey the Under! The Cowboys are coming off a bye, but have been pretty healthy, regardless. The Eagles come into this game getting a bonus for being healthier in this game they’ve generally been in the past. Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Cowboys should get the best of the passing and running match ups. Newly rich Romo should have a pretty good day. McNabb seems to be improving as the season progresses, so the Eagles are certainly capable of hanging with the Cowboys in a home game.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 22 – Cowboys 22 (non-football numbers, but I have to put it out there or it deviates from my total too much.)

STEELERS/-9/-5/RAVENS 10.7% VALUE

RAVENS/36/37/OVER 3.1% VALUE

The Ravens should have Steve McNair and Jonathan Ogden back in the offensive starting lineup this week. That alone should be enough to cover the spread, lol. McNair’s veteran leadership and poise in the pocket/ability to avoid the sack will be a big boon versus the tough Steelers’ defense. Trevor Pryce should be back on the D-line, and McCalister may play at cornerback for the Ravens as well. Coming out of a bye week, which they sorely (pun intended) needed, the Ravens should be fresh enough to hang tough. They’ll need to keep it close through most of the game, though, as they’ll find it difficult to make up a deficit via the pass, as the Steelers have a healthy advantage in the passing and defending the pass departments. The Steelers have the weapons at wide receiver to beat a sometimes vulnerable Ravens’ secondary, so how many times Big Ben is able to connect on big plays downfield will probably determine whether the Over or Under hits. It looks to me that just enough plays will be made by both squads (though mostly the Steelers) to just send this one Over the low number of 36. I currently have an Under 37 booked, so I’m going to bet the Over 36 at some point and hope for the 36 or 37 to be right.