Write Ups for Subscribers - Week #8

I did these three write ups for subscribers on Friday, and I posted them at kickoff in the forums. Thought I'd post them here, as these 3 games plus the freebie with the Saints ended up being my best games of the week, lol.

Redskins @ Lions
The Lions have covered the spread the last two weeks, both times in losing efforts. In Minneapolis two weeks ago they somehow managed to lead for most of the game versus the Vikings until giving up a game losing field goal late in the contest. I say “somehow” because they were outgained 212 to 392 yards. Yup, they were almost doubled up in yards and only lost by 2 points (the very two points the Vikings scored when Orlovsky rolled out of the pocket in the endzone and right out of bounds for a good ten yards. You’ll have to excuse Orlovsky, though, as it was his first start in the NFL). Hmm, methinks a turnover differential must have come into play…(checking game book)…yup, 3 Viking turnovers to the Lions 1. Last week the Lions outscored the 4th quarter coasting Texans 11-0 in said 4th quarter to only lose by 7 (pushing the opening number wager on the Texans I recommended. Getting the early lines made a difference in a lot of games last week, more so than usual). The big play for the Lions was a 94 yard pitch and catch to Calvin Johnson versus a dinged up and deficient Houston secondary. Even with that field-spanning play they were still outgained 326 to 404 yards. Take that play away and they were 30 yards within being doubled up in yards by a Texans’ team that couldn’t be bothered to score for a cover in the 4th quarter. Orlovsky hasn’t been completely miserable in replacing Kitna by virtue of starting against two subpar pass defenses. No such luck this week as he faces the #4 ranked pass defense of the Redskins. At least he gets a home start this week, though I’m not sure how interested Detroitians are in the Lions right now, and any fans showing up may be left with little to cheer for beyond lessened exit traffic due to a steady, coordinated exodus beginning in the 3rd quarter if this game gets out of hand early (and it’ll take a lot of luck for the Lions for it to not to).

The Redskins have been dealing with a few injuries to their defense, but they are injuries they’ve been dealing with the entire season, so their stats are fairly indicative of the level of play they’ll be capable of in this game. The Lions had a couple of injuries to their offensive line a couple of games ago, but as of last week were starting the same week #1 line with the exception of Damion Cook taking over the starting LG position from 10 year man Edwin Mulitalo. The Redskins offensive line has been healthy this season (as opposed to the disastrous early season injuries they suffered last year), with the only shake up being Jon Jansen starting at RG the last few weeks instead of Stephen Heyer, though both players are rated fairly equally, if I’m not mistaken.

I’ll dispense with the gory match up disadvantages for the Lions in this game, and head straight to the numbers. Redskins’ #2 run offense vs. Lions’ #30 run defense. Redskins’ #18 pass offense vs. Lions’ #32 pass defense. Lions’ #20 run offense vs. Redskins’ #7 run defense. Lions’ #24 pass offense vs. Redskins’ #4 pass defense.

I think the Redskins will be plenty motivated to maintain a healthy lead in this game, as they’ve seriously underachieved in turning their offensive yards into points the last two weeks, letting the Rams hang around and beat them at the buzzer, while narrowly beating Cleveland after the Browns missed a long game-tying field goal at the end of the game last week. They outgained the Rams by 168 yards, and the Browns by 115. Neither of those games should’ve been as close as they ended up being. Against the Lions’ poor defense and 26th ranked red zone defense, they can’t help but convert more of those yards into points while severely limiting any offensive success on the part of the Lions. All we need is an average amount of luck and an average amount of effort from these two teams for the Redskins to cruise to a 14 point victory.

Final Score Projection: Redskins 27 – Lions 13

Rams @ Patriots
It looks the inflated Patriots’ point spreads won’t be abating anytime soon, as the whole football loving nation saw them pulverize a Broncos squad that grew more injured and butterfingered as the game progressed. Honestly, the Broncos lost about 1/3 of their starting defense, including both their corners, before the game was over. While Cassel struggled to complete anything other than wide receiver screens early in the game, he was actually able to complete a few passes that were thrown more north to south than east to west after the Baileys (Champ and Boss – with those names you’d think they’d be brothers) and Bly were on the sidelines. When, not if, Cassel’s services are no longer required by an NFL team, he’d be wise to look for work in the Canadian league where they’ve got those extra wide fields, as opposed to the Arena league where’s it all about throwing it downfield. With the exception of one long ball to Moss in the game at SF, Cassel mostly panics, scrambles, and gets sacked when the play call doesn’t involve a throw made within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. I can only hope the Rams are prepared for those wide receiver screens…

I mean, GOOD GRIEF, take an already bad defense, put them in a short bus and have them crash into a cement culvert, put them back on the field and have them play another half of football – that’s basically what the Patriot offense was playing against last week. ANY quarterback can play okay with a huge lead, look no further than Kerry Collins for proof of that. If Kerry had been suiting up for the Lions this season I don’t think he’d be seen as the middle-aged Messiah some may view him as now. It was the perfect storm of injuries and turnovers that made the Patriots look like a legitimate contender and worthy of being 7 point home favorites versus the Rams this week.

Well, the numbers aren’t buying it, because the numbers have this game as pretty darn near a pick, actually favoring the Rams in an upset. The Patriots lost another RB, hard-running Sammy Morris, and are down to who…third down specialist Kevin Faulk now? That’s fine, he’ll still probably have as much success as Sammy because the Patriots have been run blocking pretty well since realizing that they need to in order to win games without Brady. The one significant concern with the Rams coming into this game is the status of Stephen Jackson’s injured thigh. He barely saw the practice field this week, but odds are he’s being saved and protected to play in this game, in spite of coach Haslett’s assertion that Jackson is 50/50 to take the field. The Rams’ run defense has been pretty awful this year, ranking 29th by my systems, so the Patriots should have the advantage in the rushing match ups this game, regardless of who gets the touches for them.

In the passing game we’ve got Pro Bowl caliber (at times) Marc Bulger versus the aforementioned clipboard carrying caliber Cassel. The Rams have been thin at WR all year, and so have been relying heavily on veteran Tory Holt and emerging rookie Donnie Avery. The Patriots, of course, have a fantastic duo in Randy Moss and Wes Welker, the most dangerous 1, 2 punch in wide receiver screens in the league, lol. The Patriots’ pass defense has been a little better than the Rams’ this year (20th versus 24th ranked), but will now be without wily (read dirty) old-timer Rodney Harrison at safety. I have the Rams projected at being 1 yard better per pass plays, averaging 5.7 per versus the Patriots’ 4.7. Against a non-existent Bronco defense Cassel still only managed 4.9 yards per pass play.

All told, it looks like the Rams, who’ve shown some heart and improvement since sacking Linnehan for Haslett, will be able to hang around in this game, and may even steal one on the road like they did 2 weeks ago versus the Redskins, as the Patriots are an inferior team to the Redskins in almost every facet of the game.

Final Score Prediction: Rams 21 -- Patriots 20 (I changed the Patriots to be small favorites when Steven Jackson was announced as doubtful.)

Falcons @ Eagles
The Falcons, with their new star running back, Michael Turner, and their new rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan, have become a bit of a sexy team in this 2008 season. Sharps are more interested in cash than sex, however, and the opening line of Eagles -7.5 rose to -9 over the course of a day, though a small bit of the betting furor seemed to coincide with the announcement that Brian Westbrook would be back in the lineup for the Eagles. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a team with a top 10 passing game and a bottom 10 running game experience so much line fluctuation based on the playing status of a running back before, as the Eagles’ pointspreads this year have seemingly ballooned and bombed based on Brian’s status. It’s comical, and perhaps a bit head-scratching, to see that the only time the Eagles’ run game has averaged more yards per carry than their opponent’s normally allow is in the two games that Westbrook didn’t play this season. In the two games without Westbrook the Eagles were +0.9 and +0.8 yards per carry better than their opponent’s average, while with Westbrook starting the best they managed was -0.1 compared to the opponent’s average, and have averaged -0.8 in his four starts (though he didn’t finish at least one of those games he started). Some of this correlation is due to Shawn Andrews’ injury at RG. Still, of the 4 games he didn’t play, 2 were good rushing games without Westbrook, and 2 poor rushing games with Westbrook.

The Eagles’ run defense started off the season in dominating fashion, but has been steadily backsliding in recent weeks. Whether the bye week helps them regain defensive form versus the #3 ranked Atlanta rush offense remains to be seen. The Eagles will want to minimize the Falcons’ running success by playing a fairly up tempo offense in an effort to build a lead that will force the Falcons to pass more often in the second half, where Philly’s aggressive blitz schemes can force the rookie Ryan into mistakes. Philly has a dangerous defense when leading a game late, as evidenced by the turnovers and scores they collected versus the 49ers in the last few minutes of their last game. Philly is more than capable of building a lead with the sizeable advantage they have with the passing matchups, where their 8th rated pass offense faces the Falcons’ 28th rated pass defense. The Eagles can really light it up versus sub-par defenses, they’ve scored 37 or more points in 3 of their 6 games so far this year. They’ve been able do this without the services of WR Kevin Curtis, who returns to the lineup this week, and Reggie Brown (played in one game so far this year), who looks to be recovering well enough from a groin injury to play this week. Though the Eagles have seen an offensive downturn since losing RG Shawn Andrews to a back injury, they’ll have more offensive weapons on the field this week than they’ve seen all year. If the Eagles score the 37 points they look primed to do this week, it’ll be hard for the Falcons to score the 28 points necessary to push the current spread, let alone cover it, as only Dallas has scored more than 26 points versus the Eagles this year, and the Eagles have only allowed an average of 10.7 points in their 3 home games this year. I have the Eagles scoring less than 37 this week, but wouldn’t be at all surprised if they did. I think the Falcons will get within sniffing distance of 20 points, but will not scratch it.

Matt Ryan is no doubt improving and is already looking like a career starter in this league only 6 games into his NFL career. Still, this game will be a very tough test for him and odds are he won’t get the defensive help necessary to cover this number by just managing the game. It’s still a road rookie with a vastly inferior defense versus Donovan McNabb when it’s all said and done.

Final Score Projection: Falcons 17 – Eagles 31