Monday Night Football -- Knock on Wood

I've been doing pretty well on the Sunday night games this year (see last night), but have had a real bad luck half in many of the Monday Nighters lately. Last week the MNF game alone turned what had been a mildly winning week into my first losing week since week #1. I find myself in the same spot tonight, entering the game with a small profit for the week, looking to close out a teaser with one leg left to cash, and bets on the road team and the total. Last week I had the fav and the Under, this week I have the dog and the Over. So in spite of having Denver as my favorite side of the week, I'm wondering if the MNF jinx will rear it's ugly head again tonight.

Still, there is reason for optimism (as there is for all plays one makes, right?). The Patriots, by my ratings, actually have a worse pass defense than the Broncos. The Broncos still have the 7th best passing game in the league, they've just suffered from INTs and fumbles deep in enemy territory the last few games. The Patriots, with Clipboard Cassel at the helm, have the 27th best passing game in the league.

The Bronocs also have the 7th best running game (one more 7 and I've hit the jackpot -- that's gotta' be a jinx buster!). The Patriots run game? 23rd best. The Broncos have been pretty awful stopping the run, ranking 30th, though the Patriots haven't been a whole lot better coming in at 24th. Selvin Young, RB for the Broncos, is still "?" as far as I know, but Pittman had a great game last week filling in the injured Young. Denver has traditionally done pretty well with any running back behind the stellar offensive line run schemes they employ.

So the Broncos have a clear edge in the passing game, and a small edge in the running game. Is the Bellichick magic at home enough to overcome the fundamental disadvantages the Patriots have in this game? Recent history says no, as Shanahan has had very good success versus Bill B. in this century.

Final Score Projection: Broncos 30 -- Patriots 21

Recommended Plays:

1 Unit:
Broncos +3

1/2 Unit:
Broncos ML
Broncos ML 1st Q.
(I'd rather take the plus juice on the 1st Q. ML play than the -150 juice on the Broncos +0.5 1st Q. play. It's going to be a pretty high scoring game, so less likely to be tied after the 1st Q. The Patriots have started deferring the coin toss since Brady's injury, while the Broncos have elected to receive all 3 times they've won the toss.)
Broncos +1 1st Half (-105 BookMaker)