An Insider Article that Sums up Exactly why I was Down a Little Bit this Week, lol.

DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
NEVADA SPORTSBOOKS HAVE HUGE WEEKEND KEYED BY INDY AND NFL UNDERDOGS
Most weeks you hear sportsbook operators in Las Vegas and Reno crying.
*If things went badly, they’re crying about it.
*If they broke even, they’re crying about it as if it went badly.
*If they won a little, they’re crying as if it went badly.
*If they won, they’re remembering an earlier bad week and crying about it.
*If they won BIG, they can’t keep the big smiles off their faces!
There are a lot of big smiles behind the counters at sportsbooks this week because the public lost big, AND the sharps lost big as well. This was particularly true in the NFL, though there was some big college action that went down in a few spots. Pro football is where the money came in:
*Baltimore was a very popular sharp play last week, particularly at the early numbers. I talked about this over the weekend, outlining how the line had fallen almost a field goal from the opener. The Ravens were literally never in the game. Indianapolis, a team that drove a spike through the hearts of oddsmakers the prior Sunday in Houston made it up to them with a blowout win. You don’t often see the sharps lose when the line moves this much. The sportsbooks were certainly celebrating that rare occurrence.
*Carolina was a popular play at the early number too in Tampa Bay. And, once that line came down, the Panthers were a popular play in teasers. The public usually teases big favorites down as “insurance.” Sharps use “basic strategy” of crossing the 3’s and 7’s whenever they can. Carolina was a qualifier there on paper, but lost on the field 27-3. Sharps tend to “round robin” their teaser teams. So, when a team loses, it doesn’t just cost them one bet…it costs them every bet containing that team. It’s also worth nothing that sharps like teasers even MORE when a game is expected to be a defensive struggle. Moving a line 6 points has more value when the over under is 37 than when it’s 47. Carolina hurt a lot of sharps bad.
*Minnesota, Houston, and Washington were all popular public favorites this week. Minnesota and Washington were going against Detroit and St. Louis. The public had made good money betting against those horrible teams this year. It came back to bite them Sunday though, as both ugly dogs almost won outright. A lot of parlay cards and public teaser bets went down with those results. Houston won straight up, but couldn’t cover its three point spread.
*Denver and Over was a popular play in late action, as everyone pictured that high octane offense posting a big result against the struggling Jacksonville defense. That didn’t happen either. Another popular parlay team bit the dust. Remember that late games have more betting action then early games. One result like this can make up for a bad morning from the casino’s perspective. When the morning went well…this kind of result is a home run.
*Monday Night, the books really cleaned up when Cleveland upset the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. Not only were the Giants a popular betting team for the public…but the Giants were in a lot of parlays and teasers. In fact, the Giants were probably the number one teaser team in Nevada and offshore because the public wanted the extra points for insurance…and the sharps were using basic strategy and bringing the line down across the 7 and the 3. Some seasoned professionals had also used the Giants in teasers for NEXT week. Those have lost already. What was supposed to be a bailout night for the public and the sharps turned into a one-night printing press for the sportsbooks.
The only tears this week for sportsbook operators are tears of joy. It’s been hard for them to remember a week THIS good where everything fell into place.
Are those guys the only ones smiling right now? No. Some players did very well too.
Old school sharps in particular scored big. Those guys love underdogs, particularly big underdogs. That means they were taking shots on Detroit and St. Louis while the public was loading up on the favorites. They were backing the big Monday Night home underdog in the final game of the weekend. If the old school guys needed a bailout because of other losses, they won. If they were up for the weekend because of their dog success, they pressed their winnings up and cashed a nice ticket.
Are there any lessons YOU can take from a week like this? I think there are several:
*First, remember that even professional wagerers have bad weeks. Those who focus on teasers did very well last year, but aren’t so happy about it this year. The past weekend was particularly tough on them because both Carolina and the NY Giants failed to get there. Most big teasers involved those teams because of the low game total in the first one, and the apparent statistical edges in the second. Don’t get too down on yourself after a bad week. The best of the sharps have bad weeks too.
*Remember that the betting markets often overrate the most highly regarded teams. My last article talked about some of the pointpsread issues for favorites in the BCS race in the colleges. Sunday and Monday in the pros, teams with the WORSE record entering the game went 7-4 against the spread. Outright winners/covers included Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Arizona, San Diego, and Cleveland. *History shows that short term success with favorites will eventually hit a wall. You may win for awhile when hot teams are at their best. They eventually cool off. The public loses more in that cool off period than they win when the going is good. See if you can find a way to protect what you’ve won instead of exposing yourself to a complete meltdown. *If you bet in Vegas or Reno, be careful with those parlay cards. They’re the secret weapon sportsbooks use to beat the public. The house can live with a loss to sharps if the win from the public is even greater. Those parlay cards make it possible. You wouldn’t believe how many parlay cards with teams like Minnesota, Washington, and Denver were in trash Sunday afternoon.