Week #9 Freebie

Patriots @ Colts

Some may attribute the Patriots’ impressive 5-2 post-Brady record to coach Belichick’s brilliance and gutsy play from the rest of the entire “I am not Tom Brady” roster. Certainly they are still solid in the trenches and at wide receiver. But are they as good as their 5-2 record would indicate?

Last week I predicted that the game in Foxboro versus the lowly but “now with a pulse” Rams would be played to a standstill. Indeed, the game was back and forth and tied until the Patriots’ scored the winning touchdown with 3 minutes left in the game. Unfortunately for the Rams, the only bruising their bestial running back, Steven Jackson, would be dealing with that day would be with the large one on his thigh, as he ended up sitting out as a game time decision. Still, the Rams were right there in the thick of it, and actually just outgained and out-yards-per-played the Pats by a very small margin.

After just scraping by versus the 3rd worst defense in the league at home, what can we expect out of the Patriots this week at Indy? The Colts bring a league average defense to the game, for starters, and the 10th stingiest pass defense (23rd versus the run). The Patriots have played a very soft schedule of pass defenses so far, the 3rd easiest by my rankings. The top pass defense they’ve faced was the 49ers, ranked 16th, right on the league average of 6.3 yards per pass play allowed (by my rescored stats). In spite of playing against 3 better than average run defenses this year; the 49ers’, Dolphins’ and Jets’, the Patriots have still faced the 1st or 2nd weakest schedule of rush defenses of anyone in the league by virtue of also playing against the Chiefs, Broncos and Rams. In spite of the incredibly soft defensive schedule, the Patriots have not excelled versus an opposing defense’s allowed averages against anyone this year, the lone exception being the huge running week they had versus the Broncos’ battered and bewildered defense. In that game, they still threw for an average per pass far below what the Broncos normally allow. As a matter of fact, the Patriots have failed to gain more yards per pass play than an opponent typically allows even once this year. Assuming then, that they have an average at best (for them) day offensively, can the defense help them out enough to cover or win in Indy?

Umm, no. I have the Patriots ranked 19th versus the run, and 24th versus the pass. Hey, that’s not even as good as the Colts’ defense. Any reason to be bullish on the Patriots’ pass defense regardless of their 24th ranking? Umm, double no. This will be their second game without SS Rodney Harrison (IR). Ellis Hobbs, their best cornerback, was injured last game and is expected to miss this week. The other starting CB, Deltha O’Neal, was also injured last week and is “?” for this week. So who is going to step up and fill at least one of those pairs of cornerbacks’ shoes versus Peyton Manning this week? Not CB Lewis Sanders, who missed last game and is doubtful for this one as well. I guess it’s up to Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite. Good luck, rookies!

And how has the Colts’ passing game fared as of late? Rather well, minus the odd interception that the opponent’s seem capable of holding onto, while the Colts themselves cannot. The Colts have faced 3 top 10 defenses in their last 3 games and fared better than those 3 teams (Ravens, Packers, Titans) normally allow in every one. They were average, by the Colts’ standards, early in the year as they dealt with injuries along the offensive line and at TE, not to mention Peyton having to use the first 4 games to substitute for the preseason he missed due to surgery recovery. As they’ve gotten healthier, so has their passing game. By all accounts, they should have beaten the Titans last Monday, as they outgained them in yards and yards per play, but suffered a loss due to the aforementioned inability to hang onto interceptions that may have been pick 6s on two occasions, while the Titans intercepted two, and the 4th and 1 failure at the 50.

So we have an ascending pass offense in the Colts facing a poor and worsened by injury pass defense of the Patriots. Did I mention that Joseph Addai was announced as probable today (Wednesday)? Once the Patriots undoubtedly fall behind on the scoreboard, will their 29th ranked pass offense find enough success versus the 10th ranked pass defense to come back and cover the spread? Not likely. Will the Colts, at home, have revenge on their minds after last year’s home loss? Rhetorical question. The Colts desperately need this game, and will pile it on big time. Even the meek Tony Dungy may engage in a little bit of Belichick run it up belligerence.

Did I mention that Bob Sanders and Kelvin Hayden will be back in the Colts’ secondary? Did I mention…did I mention…

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 14 – Colts 31