Monday, October 27, 2008

It's the Turnovers, Stupid.



It was a + Units day yesterday, in spite of feeling like I had more bad luck than good. Well, I just verified the bad luck with a table here, and will continue to do so every week from here on out, because it's important to gauge how much the wins and losses were due to bad luck, and how much due to poor handicapping.

The morning games, which saw us standing at +10.4 Units after completion, had a fairly even break of turnover luck (-2 on all sides, +0 on sides played). The afternoon games gobbled up a large portion of the morning profits, leaving us at +4 Units for the day. A big reason? The failure to force even a single turnover by any team that I'd picked to cover the spread, including 3 home teams of the 4 games played. In the 3 games with recommended wagers the turnovers were 9-0 against. Yeah, that's pretty awful luck.

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