Week #1 Recommended Plays

All of my plays are initially posted at TheRx.com, and it's a crapshoot whether I get them posted here before they're past-posted. Once I get my website up in a month, it'll all be there.

Week #1 Plays:

1 Unit:
Redskins/Giants Under 41
Bengals -2
Jets/Dolphins Over 36
Lions -3
Chiefs/Patriots Under 44
Jaguars/Titans Over 36.5
Eagles -1.5/Colts -2.5 Teaser (-120)
Colts/Bears Under 43
Seahawks' Team Total Over 18
Cardinals -2.5
Packers/Vikings Over 37

3/4 Unit:
Cowboys/Browns Under 49
Panthers/Chargers Under 41.5
Cardinals/49ers Under 42.5

1/2 Unit:
Redskins/Giants Under 20 2nd half (-120)
Pats-5/Colts+.5/Seahawks+10 Teaser
Eagles/Rams Under 43.5
Jaguars' Team Total Over 20 (-105 5Dimes)
Jaguars -3 (+100)
Bucs Money Line (+155)
Packers -2

*** Too many question marks for the Ravens this week with injuries/suspensions in the secondary as well.

*** Cowboys will want to run the rock plenty (and are thin at WR because of injuries, though that's not a huge factor) and the Browns will need to run a balance offense to avoid getting Anderson teed off on by the Cowboys' speedy pass rushers. A lot has to go right (or wrong, depending on how you look at it) for a game to hit 50.

*** Jets & Dolphins: Here we have two teams that were below league average at defending both the run AND pass last year. Add to the mix Favre and Pennington freshly installed at QB. Okay, neither QB is exactly fresh at this point, but Favre's QB style leads to points, and Pennington is still accurate. Look at the O/U -- 36, which is below the most key number in totals, 37. Worth a bet on the Over? Yup.

*** Grr, I've looked at it, and looked at it, and the only significant advantage the Lions have over the Falcons is in the passing game (which is the best place to have an advantage, of course). Both teams have weak secondaries, and Kitna and Co. are surely more capable of exploiting that when compared to rookie Ryan. The Lions and their new-offensive coordinator want to get back to some power running...

...but I say bullshit. Once they see how open Johnson and Williams are getting on plays that itchy trigger finger is going to start firing bullets left and right. They'd be fools not to, though foolish coaching is something you see every week. Neither team has much in the way of pass-rushing, and Atlanta's looks weaker. Mike Smith, the new Atlanta coach, used to be the D. coordinator in Jacksonville. He rushed the QB with 5 or more players only 26 percent of all pass plays (info. courtesy of The Football Prospectus 2008). If he sticks to that philosophy with the severe drop in talent he now has, they won't get many sacks.

Ach...I don't love it, but I feel compelled to play the Lions at -3 (-110 Bookmaker) while the -110 is still available for 1 unit. Ryan has looked alright in the preseason, but now it's a tougher beast for an entire game. I guess I'll find out if auto-betting versus a rookie QB is always wise after all.

*** The Chiefs offense versus anyone, the Patriots offense versus 20-30 mph winds = Under.

*** Might as well take the Jags/Titans Over 36.5 now in case it rebounds up to the key number, 37.

*** Panthers/Chargers --- Two good defenses with plenty of running the rock here. Some stingy red zone defense should equal some field goals, making a 28-14 all touchdowns final score less likely, lol. It takes a lot of field goals in a game to get over that 41 point hump. Plus the likely possibility of the Chargers nursing a second half lead will keep the scoring down, as the Chargers have been good in the past at eating clock late and sacking teams trying to come from behind via the pass.

*** Colts/Bears Under 43 -- It's been a sloppy week in terms of getting the best lines for me, which is uncharacteristic. I attribute it to the newness of being active in week #1 for the first time and not completely trusting my lines in terms of indicating line changes. Well, perhaps I should have, because my base totals derived from last years stats have done a good job in indicating line movement this first week for the most part.

*** Eagles and 49ers Unders -- these are the last 2 of my "Shake off the Rust Unders" plays. My numbers indicate these going Under, with hopefully a little rust aiding and abetting the betting.

*** Until Vince Young can beat the Jaguars, it's an auto-bet against.