Week #1 2008 NFL

Week #1: Quick Thoughts & Lines

Lions @ Falcons: Rookie Matt Ryan will take the Falcon snaps behind an O Line also featuring some fresh new faces. If the line can stay half-way healthy they’ll be better than last year’s injury-prone posse. The quarterback situation went to the dogs, so to speak, and may remain there this year. Still, the Lions are not looking very strong up front defensively and may be ineffective at getting to the rookie, especially if the Falcons can avoid many 3rd and longs with a semi-successful run game. With a little bit of time and some believable play action (haven’t seen how much of that Ryan and the Falcons do), Ryan should complete a fair number of passes versus one of the worst pass defenses of last season. Michael Turner is the new running back in town – Falcons fans can only hope that he splits the carries with the mysteriously underused J. Norwood. Martz is gone as the OC from Detroit, and the Lions are professing to bring a more balanced offensive game plan into the season. Suuuure, we’ll see how long that lasts. With the depth at wide receiver that they have and the lack of star power at running back, they’d be crazy not to bring back some of the Martz mania on offense. The Falcons would like to play a slow game here, to stay within striking distance of a win without forcing Ryan to play from too far behind. The Lions would be smart to try and play fast and put the Falcons off balance playing catch up.

My Line: Falcons +1.9
Final Score Prediction: Lions 23 – Falcons 20

Bengals @ Ravens: It’s up to Carson Palmer again to try and carry his team on his shoulders into the playoffs. The defense last year was relying on Palmer to carry them as well, which oddly enough didn’t turn out so good. The Bengals were down to parking lot attendants at linebacker at one point last year, so it seems that they can only improve defensively (A. Odom on the D line should help). The Raven’s defense continues to age at the appropriate pace of one year per annum, while the offense gets younger with Flacco and Rice (which I think is what I ordered last time I went out for Mexican). Ed Reed is one crick in the neck away from retirement, and is “?” for week 1. Newly acquired CB Fabian Washington is suspended for game one. I thought I’d read that another Baltimore DB was suspended for this game but now I can’t track that information down. At any rate, the Baltimore secondary, terrible and injured last season, is starting 2008 in the same fashion versus one of the best QBs in the league. Could be trouble. Which brings us to Flacco, rookie Raven QB. I like Delaware and the University of Delaware has a beautiful campus. Only time will tell if Flacco is an NFL caliber quarterback or not, coming from such a small school playing versus defenses closer to a high school than NFL level, I reckon. If he struggles to get it done versus a Bengal defense while playing at home, well, you know the rest. The Ravens also debut a new head coach in Harbaugh. A rookie head coach on one hand or Marvin Lewis on the other -- hard to tell if there’s a clear advantage there.

My Line: Ravens +3.5
Final Score Prediction: Bengals 23 – Ravens 17

Seahawks @ Bills: Matt Hasselbeck’s bad back will be back on the field without having seen much practice time heading into the season opener. Still, Seneca is solid, and even Frye is back out of the fire and into the pan with some solid preseason play. Deion Branch says he’s going to play, the Seahawks do need to fill some jerseys at WR, it’s true. Defensively, Bernard and Babineux are suspended for the first game. So the Seahawks bring a few question marks to a game with the always one large question mark Bills. Someone forgot to tell the Bills’ Pro Bowl offensive tackle Jason Peters that he’s playing in Buffalo where salaries and architecture have a distinctive circa 1970s flair. His contract holdout will have him missing at least the first game, though the team feels confident with the adjustments made for his absence. We’ll see about that. Peters leaving the game versus the Giants last year cost me a big chunk of profit last year when a Bills second half lead failed to even cover a Sweetheart teaser by the time it was all said and done. Trend Edwards will start at QB for the Bills, with JP Losman breathing down his neck, though to be fair, in Buffalo come December it looks like everyone is breathing down everybody elses neck it can get so friggin’ cold. The Bills have two young running backs that showed a lot of promise last year in Lynch and Jackson, and will look to set up the passing game on the strength of a solid running game. The numbers say it will be a close game, with the Hasselbeck led and Holmgren coached Seahawks logging an opening week victory.

My Line: Bills +1.1
Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 21 – Bills 20

Cowboys @ Browns: Two teams in for a big let down this year, according to FootballOutsiders, though I’m more inclined to believe in the Browns decline. Still, the Cowboys play in a division where every victory will be hard earned, so who knows? The pointspread tells the story on who brings the superior team into this contest, as the Cowboys are the largest road favorite in week #1. The main reason? Defense. Still, the Browns, like any other team, will look to exploit Roy Williams in pass defense. The Cowboys have struggled defending tight ends and that Winslow kid the Browns have ain’t too shabby. Pacman Jones hasn’t seen playing time since, well, when Pacman was getting quarters pumped into it at the local arcade. He’s been cleared of his own lead-pumping crimes and is good to go, for what it’s worth. For the Browns, Derek Anderson has just set to clearing the cobwebs from the concussion he sustained a couple of weeks ago, while top receiver Braylon Edwards is recovering at the other end of the bodily spectrum with a cut foot. Electrifying return man J. Cribbs is “?” for week #1, as is RB J. Lewis. The Cowboys are thin at receiver, but mostly all there elsewhere across the roster. The Cowboys will need to stockpile wins early in the year in case one of their stars gets injured, and ought to get one here.

My Line: Browns +7.2
Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 27 – Browns 20

Bears @ Colts: Suddenly the Colts aren’t a dome team anymore. They’ve got a new-fangled retractable roof in an attractive new stadium, something the Bears faithful might wish they had in Chicago when it turns cold on the banks of Lake Michigan. This game won’t feature anything else new-fangled, just a good old fashioned butt whuppin’ like the Super Bowl game 2 years ago. At least the Bears should get good field position after the Indy scores when the Colts either kick it to Hester or squib it downfield a bit. The Indy return coverage was pretty poor last year, so don’t be surprised if Hester takes one back in the season opener. The Bears’ defense will be at full strength, but will be hard pressed to stop an Indy offense also at full strength. Once the Bears fall behind, don’t expect Kyle Orton, who WON the starting quarterback job (unlike Flacco in Baltimore who got the nod by injury default), to lead this team back from anywhere except the tunnel after halftime. Dwight Freeney is finally healthy at DE for the Colts, and he’s bullish to sack some Bears to begin the season. The Bears just don’t have the weapons to compete in this one, it’s like bringing chopsticks to a numchuck?, nunchuck?, somethin’chuck fight. Peyton Manning hasn’t seen any play time in the preseason, but hey, he’s Peyton, right?
A bursa-sac infected Manning in the hand is worth two Grossmans and Ortons in the bush.

My Line: Colts -14.7
Final Score Prediction: Colts 27 – Bears 13

Jets @ Dolphins: Brett Favre will have many occasions to wonder if hanging around to pad his records was really worth it this year. The Jets have at least tried to upgrade their front lines, adding A. Faneca at LG and K. Jenkins at NT. Favre will need an upgraded line as the Jets were the 29th most sacked team per pass plays in the league last year. He’ll probably be okay facing the Dolphins. The Dolphins switched to a 3-4 hybrid defense, and then lost their main hybrid player, Jason Taylor, to the Redskins. He may be slowing, but he’s surely better than whoever is going to take his place. The Dolphins’ offensive line is very young and will be tested by teams loading up to stop the run early in games. Ted Ginn will have to keep it in second gear to not outrun Pennington’s passes. Newly acquired E. Wilford may be a better choice at wide receiver. He’s a big body that can get up there to snag some lobs in the middle of the field. In spite of Parcells being brought into guide the Miami franchise, at least for now the Jets appear to have a leg up on them in terms of players on the field.

My Line: Dolphins +3
Final Score Prediction: Jets 21 – Dolphins 17

Chiefs @ Patriots: The rebuilding Chiefs visit a Patriots team that is probably still smoldering inside from losing the Super Bowl and a perfect season all in one game. Don’t expect the chip on Bellichick’s shoulder to diminish any time soon – the thing is a cancerous tumor by now. I’m assuming Brady will be at 100% with my line. The Patriots are famous for claiming a player to be falling off his death bed only to miraculously spring up, suit up, and play on any given Sunday. There’s plenty in the Chief’s linebacking corps and secondary for the Patriots’ passing game to exploit, so they won’t need to challenge the strength of the Chiefs’ defense, which is stopping the run. The Chief’s, with Croyle at QB, and a rejiggered O Line (last year’s line play was atrocious) are ill-suited to come from behind, so I expect them to stay behind. Blow out of week #1 here.

My Line: Patriots -20.9
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 10 – Patriots 31

Bucs @ Saints: Joey Galloway’s 36 year old groin just ain’t what it used to be, but he says he’s ready to enter and play an NFL game despite missing all of preseason and training camp before that. He’s clearly the Bucs’ best receiver when healthy at a position where the Bucs’ lack depth. E. Graham came in as an emergency running back replacement last year and is now back as the season starter. Behind him on the depth charts will be W. Dunn, who’s clearly aging and in a steep decline over the last 2 seasons.
You look at the Bucs roster and wonder how they score points…well, they’ve got a young and talented offensive line and they run the play-fake pretty damn well. Now they’ve swiped center J. Faine from the Saints as well. The Saints’ offensive line may not be any better than it was last year (trouble) but their defensive front should be better (if they can avoid injuries like last year), which will, of course, help their oft-torched secondary (which returns many of the same “players.”) The Saints did pick up linebacker J. Vilma from the Jets, so yes, their front seven has the potential to better than the very average squad it was last year. Offensively, with Brees, a recovering Deuce McCallister, some good wide receivers, and now Jeremy Shockey at TE, the Saints should put some points on the board. Last year they were #1 at converting in the red zone. The Bucs were a dismal 25th offensively in the red zone, and their defense was surprisingly poor in the red zone, ranked 29th, though only 6 defenses allowed their opponents fewer trips into the red zone. That is my grand prediction for this game – whichever team does better in the red zone will win.

My Line: Saints -2.5
Final Score Prediction: Bucs 20 – Saints 23

Rams @ Eagles: The Eagles at WR have been without starter Reggie Brown all preseason with a hammy and he’s just starting to practice now. Kevin Curtis herniated himself in a sporting fashion and is out indefinitely, which leaves only Baskett and Lewis listed as WRs on the depth chart. Still, with McNabb, Westbrook and a pretty good trio of TEs the Eagles should find enough offense to beat what looks to be another poor Rams’ pass defense this year. The Rams’ run defense wasn’t so hot either – let’s just call it a poor defense and leave it at that. The Rams will have two young guys on the right D Line, and two old guys on the left. They’d better hope the generation gap doesn’t lead to, err, gaps. Offensively, the Rams will put a healthy squad on the field for the first time since God knows when. Bulger, S. Jackson, O. Pace – all together? Think of the possibilities! The Rams had to resort to small ball last year, they’re bound to improve their yards per play in this campaign. The Eagles are young at linebacker, with all three starters 25 and below, and didn’t perform particularly well when taken as a whole last year. The Eagles love cornerbacks that can handle single-coverage to free up the rest of the team for the blitzing schemes the Eagles are famous for, so it made sense for them to go after and sign Asante Samuel. The Eagles’ defense shined in the red zone, ranking 1st. That will take a dip this year, but the Eagles’ offense should improve it’s poor red zone performance to balance the scales of red zone justice.

My Line: Eagles -8.9
Final Score Prediction: Rams 17 – Eagles 26

Panthers @ Chargers: Del Homme back at QB for the Panthers, but top WR Smith suspended for the first two games of the season, leaving the Panthers thin at WR. Merriman just wants to play ball.

My Line: Chargers -10
Final Score Prediction: Panthers 14 – Chargers 24

Cardinals @ 49ers: It will be interesting to see how the plodding 49ers’ offense of last year responds to Mike Martz’ high octane style now that he’s the new offensive coordinator. It might be like mixing oil and water. The 49er defensive gamely tried to salvage some wins for the team this year, and should play even better if they stay moderately healthy. Too bad for the 49ers, though, that the Cardinals match up well versus them on both sides of the ball. Warner and that great group of receivers should win the road opener, with the rest of the team putting in an intense effort remembering the two games the 49ers stole from them last year.

My Line: 49ers +6.9
Final Score Prediction: Cardinals 23 – 49ers 17

Jaguars @ Titans: Jags’ Collier shot over the weekend, always a distraction. Can MLB Mike Peterson stay healthy for them this year (he’s good when in there)? The Jags’ always match up well versus the Titans when Vince Young starts at QB, as he can’t exploit the weakness of the Jags’ defense, their pass defense, like many other capable quarterbacks can. The Titan’s defense won’t be able to pick up enough of the offensive slack to win.

My Line: Titans +3.5
Final Score Prediction: Jaguars 21 – Titans 17

Vikings @ Packers: Aaron Rodgers = time will tell, but he’s got a lot of talent around him. Packers’ defense – better versus the run than pass, a good match up for this game. The Vikings acquired Jared Allen, a magnificent addition at DE to help the Vikings’ notoriously weak pass rush. Allen wanted a trade to colder climes so that his next and NFL suspending DUI would at least be into a snow bank somewhere, preserving his vital organs and clotting his thinned blood. I’m not sure if the Vikings can be as super-human against the run this year, but they’ll still be very good. LT McKinnie suspended the first 4 for the Vikes, not helpful. QB Jackson recovering from an injury. Rodgers throwing arm should get a workout in this home opener.

My Line: Packers -5
Final Score Prediction: Vikings 20 – Packers 24

Broncos @ Raiders: Which team was able to patch up its’ run defense during the off season? These two were dead last last year. The Raiders at least had the excuse of injuries, so I say they’ll be better, as the Broncos didn’t do much up front heading into this season. Neither team had a very good pass defense last year, in spite of the much ballyhooed cornerbacks Asomugha (Oak) and Bailey (Den). Alright, Bailey is 30 now and sliding, but even Asomugha couldn’t cover the entire secondary. The Raiders shipped out their other starting corner, F. Washington, and brought in “destined to be perennially disgruntled” DeAngelo Hall in his place. Say “Hello” to two wins again this season, Mr. Hall, maybe you’ll learn to enjoy losing here in Oakland ala Randy Moss. The Broncos at least enjoy the luxury of a decent passing game, something the Raiders don’t figure to have. Still, I’m leanin’ on the Raiders to cover the home opener.

My Line: Raiders +1.7
Final Score Prediction: Broncos 23 – Raiders 21