Let the Real Games Begin!

Those of you familiar with my work may recall that I don’t post lines until week #4. Well, I’m going to start at week #1 this year using last year’s stats modified with the new roster information plus other angles as I see fit. I’m mostly starting in week #1 so that I can be included in ThePredictionTrackers season-long linesmaking competition, where I finished up in second place for the second half of last season. So buyer beware, as it won’t be until week #4 that I’m exclusively using statistics from this season! I plan on having a free website with my lines, recommended plays and a ton of statistical goodies up later in the season

Redskins at Giants

Last Year’s Injury Levels and Notes:

Redskins: The Redskins dealt with injuries to the right side of their O-Line for all of 2007. Randy Thomas at RG was injured in Game 2 and only came back to start one more game late in the season. Jon Jansen at RT was injured in the first game of the season and done for the year, pressing Stephen Heyer into the starting role. Heyer dealt with his own injuries through the middle of the season before starting the remainder of the games from week #10 on out. All of these players are back and ready for the new season, with the younger Heyer keeping the starting job at RT versus the long in the tooth Jansen. The left side of the line was solid for Washington last year with Samuels, Kendall and Rabach missing only one start between them. The Redskins made a late run winning their last 4 regular season games to squeak into the playoffs. A disinterested Cowboys team with nothing to play for in week #17 gave them the final necessary regular season win. The Redskins late season streak was impressive when you look at the nagging injuries at wide receiver and the death of Sean Taylor they had to deal with. The key to their late season run was the insertion of the ancient Todd Collins into the starting lineup for the injured QB, Jason Campbell. Collins led the team with a 106.4 passer rating for the remainder of the season, due to his inability to throw any interceptions until the playoff loss versus Seattle. The Redskins have a new coach/offensive coordinator in Jim Zorn, who brings a West Coast style offense, so once again the Redskins have had to learn a new offensive playbook, something they may be accustomed to doing by now, lol. They’ve struggled in the preseason, so there’s a big question mark as to how many weeks it will take them to be comfortable with the offense. Also, they don’t have a very good group of receivers for a West Coast offense with S. Moss and Randel El as the starters.

Giants: The Giants only had their top two running backs, Jacobs and Ward, on the field at the same time for 4 games last season, from weeks 5 to 8, in which time they swept a weak line up of opponents – the Jets, Falcons, 49ers and Dolphins. Bradshaw filled in admirably late in the season, and ripped off an 88 yard TD run that greatly enhanced his per-run average as he only had 23 total attempts for the season. So, the Giants are pretty stacked at running back heading into week #1. The Giants’ success running the ball last season despite some revolving injuries can be largely attributed to the consistency of it’s offensive line, which remained intact for the entire season, and returns all 5 starters this year. They ran the ball 47% of the time last year, the 11th most in the NFL, and there’s no reason they won’t try to win games by establishing the run this year, as Manning is consistently inconsistent, as is the health and effort of their wide receivers and tight ends. Defensively, the Giants will be without their pass-rushing specialists Strahan and Umeniyiora this year, and that’s a pretty big drop off. The Giant’s pass-rush kept the pressure off of their suspect and oft-injured secondary. No such luck this year barring some miraculous developments on the D line.

What to Expect This Game:

Running, and lots of it. The Giants, as I mentioned, ran the ball 47% of the time last season. The Redskins? Even more, at 47.9%. Based on last year’s numbers alone the Giants would have an advantage in the running game, but that advantage is nullified by the Redskins’ starting the season with a healthy offensive line while the Giants start with a weaker defensive line. The Redskins had a better passing game last season, but I have the passing games rated near equal when you factor in the Redskins’ apparent struggles with the new system and coaches. The Giants’ have home field advantage, but they played a lot better on the road last year, lol. The crowd will be pumped to finally support the Super Bowl champs after not getting a single playoff game at home last year, and maybe a little bit of that energy will help the Giants. This game figures to be close, and I have the Giants winning by what comes down to home field advantage when last year’s numbers and this year’s factors are looked at.

My Line: Giants -1.7
Final Score Prediction: Redskins 17 – Giants 20