Week #15 Recap

2 Units:

Bucs/Falcons Under 39/Loser

1 Unit:

Broncos +1/Loser
Ravens -3/Loser
Broncos +1/Loser
Jets +23.5/Winner
49ers +9.5/Winner
Panthers +7.5/Winner
Grand Salami -- All Games Under 677.5/Winner
Titans -3 (-125)/Winner
Bills +5.5/Loser
No 3 unanswered scores: Buf/Cle +145/Loser
No score last 2 minutes of 1st half: Buf/Cle +160/Loser
Bucs -2.5/Packers Pick/Colts -0.5 Teaser/Winner
Jags +3 2nd half/Winner
Redskins +6/Winner
Redskins/Giants Over 35/Loser
Redskins +4 2nd half/Winner


3/4th Unit:

Jaguars +4/Winner
Lions/Chargers Under 47/Loser
Bills/Browns Under 47/Winner
Bucs -13.5/Winner
Packers -2.5/Redskins +10.5 Teaser/Winner
Bills +11.5/Bucs -6.5 Teaser/Winner
Bucs +0.5/Jags +16/Dolphins Over 24/Chiefs Under 47.5 Teaser/Winner
No 3 unanswered scores: Jax/Pitts +145/Loser
No 3 unanswered scores: Wash/NYG +145/Loser
Chargers PIck 2nd half/Winner

1/2 Unit:

Lions +10.5/Loser
Jets/Pats Under 53/Winner
Jets/Pats Under 47/Winner
Broncos/Texans Over 46/Loser
Saints/Cards Over 46.5/Winner
Saints/Cards Under 49.5/Loser
Eagles +10.5/Winner
Bills/Browns Under 43.5/Winner
Packers/Rams Over 44.5/Winner
Colts/Raiders Under 45/Winner
Raiders +10.5/Winner
No score last 2 minutes of 1st half: Jax/Pitts +135/Loser
No score last 2 minutes of 1st half: Wash/NYG +160/Loser
No score last 2 minutes of 1st half: NYJ/NE +135/Loser
Pats/Jets Under 20.5 2nd half/Winner
Panthers/Seahawks Under 17.5 2nd half/Loser
Rams +3.5 2nd half/Loser
Chargers' Team Total Under 27.5/Loser
Chiefs' Team Total Under 15.5/Loser
Panthers' Team Total Over 14/Loser
Patriots' Team Total Under 30.5/Winner
Browns' Team Total Under 21/Winner
Ravens' Team Total Over 20.5/Loser
Falcons' Team Total Under 13/Winner
No score 1st 7:30 of game: KC/Pitt/NE/Cle/TB/4 Losers 1 Winner
Raiders +6 2nd half/Winner
Raiders/Colts Under 21.5 2nd half/Winner
Eagles +7 2nd half/Winner
Eagles/Cowboys Over 23.5 2nd half/Loser
Chargers/Lions Under 20.5 2nd half/Loser
Redskins/Giants Under 17 2nd half/Winner
Vikings -3/Over 36.5 teaser/Loser
Bears' QBs Over 33.5 attempts/Winner


1/3 Unit:

Bills ML/Loser
Jaguars ML +160/Winner

1/4 Unit:

Jaguars +3 (+110)/Winner


Week #15: Sides: +4.2/Totals: -1.4/Teasers: +2.7/Halves +3.1/Props: -5.9
Week #15: +2.6 Units

***Year to Date***

Sides: +12/Totals: +9.2/Teasers: +6.9/Halves: +12.4/Quarters: +1/PnPnTT: -1.2
YTD: +40.2 Units, +7.78% ROI, Average bet size = .75 units, +53.3 average sized bets

Thoughts on Week 15

"Prop(het)s of Doom"

Okay, let me start off by saying that I don't think the majority of the prop bets I
lost were bad bets. It basically came down to 1 or 2 plays that kept me from breaking
even on the week on the props. Other than the Grand Salami Under play (easiest money
of the year) my other two one unit prop bets were both in the Browns/Bills game. This
game had the worst playing conditions so I made these two bets larger than usual.

Bet #1: No 3 unanswered scores +145 -- There were only 3 total scores in this game so
yeah, it's kind of unlucky that they were all scored by the same team. The second score
came when the Bills snapped the ball over Moorman's head and he had the biggest panic
attack for a Mormon since Mitt Romney started slipping in the polls. Romney gave his "I'm not
Kennedy and will still totally dodge the Mormonism thing" speech and Moorman kicked the
empty netter through the back of the endzone as the ball sat there unmoving on the
goal line. Had he even glanced over his shoulder he would've seen that there was no one
within 15 yards of him -- he could've calmly stooped over, picked up the ball, turned and
punted it away. Picking up the ball in the endzone and being tackled is no worse than
kicking it through the endzone, for Pete's sake, it's still a safety. That was score
number two, which leads us to score #3...

Bet #2: No score last 2 minutes of 1st half +160 -- Let me once again remind you that
there were only 3 total scores in this game, and that the third and final score did
indeed come with less than 2 minutes remaining in the half. With 4:06 left in the half, the
Browns start a drive from their own 7 yard line. My chief concern at this point is that
they fail to pick up a first down, the Bills get good field position and somehow manage
to get a score with less than two minutes in the half. That would've been bad, but at
least it would've reset the "No 3 unanswered scores" bet to the Bills with one score.
Nope, because the even worse case scenario played out as the Browns mounted the longest
drive by either team for the entire game, gaining 62 yards, and with 1:20 something left
on the clock Phil Dawson attempts a 49 yard field goal in a side-to-side wind in freezing
temperatures and plays the wind perfectly, landing the ball just over the front bar,
hitting off the stanchion for the second time this year -- a field goal that proved to be
a swing of OVER 5 UNITS as it killed both of these 1 unit props. That was a dagger, an
icy dagger -- both times Dawson has hit the stanchion it has cost me bets.

Win some, lose some, but these props were mostly lose. Ways in which I lost the "No score
in first 7:30 of game" bets: Interception returned 5 yards for a touchdown one minute and
forty five seconds away from being a winner. Interception returned on the second play
of the game 26 yards for a touchdown. Hey, I've been having a good season, so I pressed
it a little here and didn't get the breaks, oh well. Give me the same conditions in
Cleveland and I would make the same bets every single time.

Still, it was a winning week because I did well on sides, the best week I've had on sides
for a while. Totals had a negative return because the biggie, the Bucs/Falcons Under 39,
lost by a single point after not being able to withstand the aforementioned interception
returned for a touchdown on the second play of the game and the Bucs' first ever kickoff
return for a touchdown later in that half. I recouped half of the play on the second half
Under 17, but that counts toward my halves record, not my O/U record. All in all, I'm
pleased with my handicapping for week 15. I'd gone 4-0 on teasers until the little half
unit loss on the Monday night game -- a pure action play.