Week #15 Mini Write-Ups, Lines & Values
Legend
Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value
Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value
Bengals/-8/-3.5/49ers 10.6% value
49ers/42.5/41/Under 3.5% value
The 49ers continue to be an Under team as their offense doesn’t score while their defense plays with some pride. The Bengals have been a team with character issues, so I’m not sure how much of an effort they’ll put forth in a meaningless road game as the season winds downs. The 49ers still want to win to decrease the value of the 1st round draft pick they’ll give to the Patriots, lol. It seems like this year the dogs have been more interested in eating their own shit than barking – it’s taking more intestinal fortitude each week to back them. The backdoor cover has been completely absent from the 2007 season, I can’t remember the last time I had a late cover this season. Honestly, I don’t. Every late score has been meaningless or a bet killer it seems, and that’s not just selective memory, lol.
Final Score Prediction: Bengals 23 – 49ers 19
Cardinals/+3.5/+2/Cardinals 2.7% value
Saints/48.5/46.5/Under 3.8% value
Boldin and Fitzgerald are “?” this week, but at least one of them should play it looks like. Turnovers killed the Cards last week. They out gained the Seahawks by 6 yards, but Warner’s 5 picks killed them. I wasn’t whistling
Final Score Prediction: Cards 21 – Saints 24
Falcons/+12.5/+17.5/Buccaneers 12.7% value
Buccaneers/38/34.5/Under 9.2% value (-0.5 applied to total for weather)
It seems Petrino is the kind of guy who could ink an eternal deal with God and then court offers from the Devil the very next day. Anywho, the Falcons are awful and figure to be even more so this next week playing a tough Bucs team. Talk about distractions. First, they get thumped on a Monday nighter, Vick is sentenced, Petrino walks the plank and, well…how much focus have they had getting ready for this game? Garcia returns at QB – McCown passed the ball really well in his place but had a costly fumble or two. Garcia should do a better job of managing the ball, I’d reckon. Roddy White, the Falcons’ leading receiver, is “?”. The Falcons would’ve scored nothing in the second half against the Saints if they hadn’t recovered the fumble at the 20. Their “touchdown or nothing” red zone offense may keep them from scoring late in this game as well, depending on what the interim coach’s philosophy is. I predict the Bucs keep the Falcons out of the end zone for the first 3 quarters. A healthy lead throughout the game means the Bucs should run Graham a lot, eating the clock and helping the Under, which still has good value.
Final Score Prediction: Falcons 9 – Bucs 26
Ravens/-3.5/-2/Dolphins 3.6% value
Dolphins/37/40/Over 8.5% value (-0.5 applied to total for weather)
I made a bet on the Ravens earlier in the week, but they continued to be so injured on defense that I may buy back on the Dolphins. As long as the weather isn’t too bad, the Dolphins have a good chance of exploiting the Ravens’ secondary like nearly every other team has done this year. Lemon has not been great with his 65 QB rating, but he’s the Dolphins best chance to win a game this year. With both Chatman and Cobbs “?” this week at RB, I’d expect the Dolphins to pass on 66% of their plays. The Ravens should have decent success both running and throwing versus the injured and poorly performing Dolphins’ defense. As long as the wind and rain stay moderate I’d play the Over 37 in this game. Usually being one-dimensional on offense is a bad thing, but as the Dolphins would likely be passing the ball most of the time anyway, their lacking of healthy RBs may not hurt them quite as much. The key match-up in this game will be the Ravens’ blitzing versus the Dolphins’ pass blocking. With time, Lemon should be able to connect on some good passes versus the Ravens’ defense that will be without Rolle and McCallister at cornerback. I reckon I’ll wait and see where the line is Sunday morning. As I already have the Ravens -3, if the line rises to 4 (doubtful) I’ll probably take the Dolphins and hope for a Ravens 3 or 4 point victory. I may buy back anyway at +3.5.
Final Score Prediction: Ravens 21 – Dolphins 20
Bills/+5.5/+1.5/Bills 9.9% value
Browns/38.5/41.5/Over 8.2% value (-2.5 applied to total for weather)
The Browns have a big advantage in the passing game, but that may in part be neutralized by the freezing, snowy, 21 mph winds weather. Jurevicious is “?” at WR for them as well, and the majority of the balls are caught by he, Edwards and Winslow. The Browns’ running game is above average with Jamal Lewis, but the Bills’ run defense is the strength of their defense (though right near league average). My numbers favor the Bills in the running game. I project they’ll out gain the Browns by just over .3 yards per carry. Most of the Bills’ wide receivers have experience in cold snowy games. Their passing game worked pretty well in the freezing temps of last week as Edwards threw 4 td passes. Ultimately, the weather should hamper the passing games enough to make this a close game and worth taking a shot with the points on the visiting Bills.
Final Score Prediction: Bills 20 – Browns 23
Packers/-7.5/-7.5/No value
Rams/44.5/46.5/Over 4.8% value
It looks like Bulger has cleared his head and will start this game. Woodson and Harris will play at CB for the Packers, though they’re less than 100%. Of concern is that Aaron Kampman, the Packers’ sack-happy DE is listed as “?” as a game-time decision. The kid has a motor and could get to Bulger for more than one sack in this game if he plays. I like the Packers to win the game, but with their nagging defensive injuries the Rams may be able to score enough points to cover the spread at home. I’d never bet the Rams here, though, as the Packers have blow out potential versus all but the best teams in the league.
Final Score Prediction: Packers 27 – Rams 20
Jaguars/+3/+1.5/Jaguars 3.8% value
Steelers/36/39.5/Over 9.5% value (-3 applied to total for weather)
Big Ben didn’t practice much with a bum shoulder this week, but not a lot has been made of it so I assume he’s playing even though listed as “?”. Wind chill lowers the temperature from 37 to 27, though the precip is listed at only 30 percent for the first two hours of the game, then increasing to 60%. The wind is forecast for just below 20 mph, so the conditions right now don’t look too horrible. It is Heinz Field, though, so the field could get chewed up in a hurry. If the weather stays the same and Big Ben starts I’d make a play on the first half Over. The Jaguars are usually a second half Over team, however, as they often end up wearing down the opponent’s front line and then break some big runs for scores. Being Heinz Field though, with worsening conditions, the first half Over play may be better than the game Over, but either one has decent value. Given the conditions, both teams would like to establish the run, but the Steelers have been prone to pass more than usual this year and may take their shots at the Jaguars’ weak pass defense. Stroud is done for the year on the Jaguars’ D-line, but they’ve given up less ypc when he hasn’t played, believe it or not. In a mucky game I’d once again take the dog getting the points.
Final Score Prediction: Jaguars 20 – Steelers 21
Jets/+21/+16.5/Jets 11.5% value
Patriots/41/45/Over 9.5% value (-5 applied to total for weather)
It looks like the storm will have passed its’ peak by 1 pm eastern tomorrow. The game will start with a 90% chance of precip and continue to drop to 60 by the time the game ends. The wind will start at 23 mph and drop to 20. The temperature will rise a few degrees from near freezing as the game progresses, but the wind chill will keep it well below freezing in the “feels like” department. What can I say? If the weather stays nasty I’m comfortable with my Jets and Under bets (53 & 47). If the wind ends up being less than 20 mph I’ll shoot for the middle as long as I can get Over 41 still. Fingers crossed that the Jets at least hang on to the football and make the Patriots drive more than 50 yards for each score they get. I don’t see the Patriots attempting any field goals unless the wind is right at their backs and they’re inside the 20. 4th down and less than 6 yards and I think they’ll be going for it from the 35 to the 20 yard line. The Patriots are very good at the quick throws for wide receiver screens, etc., so they’ll probably rely on the shorter routes instead of longer stuff down the middle as ball flight will be unpredictable in the bad weather. I’d look at player props for the Patriots’ receivers and maybe take Over the # of catches as Welker and Moss figure to catch a lot of balls at the line of scrimmage for short gains. The Jets will want to run and hope that they can get some manageable third downs. All of their main pass receiving targets are playing injured right now, and injuries don’t like the cold weather if I’m not mistaken, lol.
Final Score Prediction: Jets 14 – Patriots 31
Seahawks/-7.5/-0.5/Panthers 18.9% value
Panthers/37/38.5/Over 4.6% value (-0.5 applied to total for weather)
The main concern with the Panthers is that Testaverde hasn’t practiced this week. Any time this season when the Panthers have had uncertainty at QB during the week has led to disastrous offensive output on Sunday for the most part. Their defense has been pretty solid but has tended to get worn to a pulp late in games when they’ve been on the field for a long time. In their last two losses they were down just 10-6 at half to both the Saints and Jaguars but then got blown out in the second half when their offense couldn’t get anything done. I don’t have any let down or motivational factors applied to my line, but Seattle is playing a west coast to east coast morning game the week after they clinched the division, so they may coast at some point in this game, in spite of Holmgren’s statement that they want to finish strong. The fat walrus coach can say all he wants from the sidelines, but it comes down to the players on the field. Speaking of which, I can only hope that the Panthers will play hard for the home crowd looking for a second consecutive home win. They creamed the 49ers in their last home game, so I expect them to play hard. Hopefully their offense will do just enough to keep this game close.
Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 21 – Panthers 20
Titans/-3.5/-4/Titans 1.8% value
Chiefs/34/32.5/Uncer 3.8% value (-1 applied to total for weather)
If you like boring football games this one is for you. The Titans have something to play for, while the Chiefs have completely gone off the rails with the injuries to their running backs and offensive line. Croyle hasn’t been good at QB, but he, or whoever’s been back there this year (all three KC QBs have been hit and injured this year), have suffered from really poor protection. The Chiefs have dropped six games in a row and there’s little reason to think it won’t be seven after Sunday. The Titans have a defense that is very tough on average to poor offenses – the Chiefs may be reduced to direct snapping to a running back by the time this game is over if their QBs take a few solid hits, which seems likely, lol. The Titans’ offense is no great shakes, but they should be able to run enough to set up VY for some favorable down and distance situations. Haynesworth is “?” after not practicing all week, but he may play as the Titans cannot afford a loss and he’s played after not practicing since coming back from his injury anyway. The Chiefs will be hard pressed to score double digits in this game if the Titans don’t turn the ball over in their own territory or give up a big return.
Final Score Prediction: Titans 20 – Chiefs 10 (prediction varies from my line because of the Chiefs’ major downward trend)
Colts/-10.5/-6.5/Raiders 9.3% value
Raiders/45/43/Under 4.2% value
Look for the Colts to run more than usual to attack the weak part of the Raiders’ defense in this game. K. Keith is “?” which will hurt them as they’d like to give him part of the running load to not wear down Addai too much. The Colts have several injuries up front defensively so the Raiders will look to pound the ball with Fargas and Jordan to set up some manageable third downs. With both games relying on the running game, the clock should keep running which help this one stay under the total. With the injuries the Colts have and the decent pass defense of the Raiders, I think this game will be closer than expected and I’ll probably put down at least a half unit on the Raiders, who are excited to get J. Russell taking more snaps at QB this game and will be looking to upset the Super Bowl champs.
Final Score Prediction: Colts 24 – Raiders 17
Lions/+10/+6.5/Lions 7.9% value
Chargers/45.5/44/Under 3.7% value
Phillip Rivers has been injured and not practicing much this week – there’s a legitimate chance he might not start this game and is the reason why this game was taken off the board yesterday. L. Neal, the Chargers’ lead-blocking FB for LT is out with an injury. Merriman is out at LB, and J. Williams may miss at DT as well. Gates hasn’t practiced this week, but will probably play in spite of being listed at “?”. The Chargers really took a beating in
Final Score Prediction: Lions 20 – Chargers 24
Eagles/+10/+9/Eagles 2.1% value
Cowboys/48.5/47/Under 2.9% value
As someone kindly pointed out to me this week, the Eagles have been my kryptonite, lol. No other team can look as good on paper and so crummy on the field as they. They scored on their opening drive last week 3 minutes into the game…and then proceeded to only add 6 more points for the remainder of the game in a losing home effort. I’d still rather have Feeley in there and risk the interceptions. The Cowboys looked destined to lose last week but destiny still has a horseshoe planted up the Cowboys’ ass and I don’t see it falling out this week. LJ Smith will miss at TE for the Eagles, and they’ve got some players listed at “?” as well. They’re going to lose. They lose games they’re supposed to win, so I don’t know how they’re going to win a road game versus the best team in the NFC.
Final Score Prediction: Eagles 20 – Cowboys 28
Redskins/+4.5/+1.5/Redskins 7.9% value
Giants/36/39.5/Over 9.8% value (-2 applied to total for weather)
It’ll be cold and fairly windy in
Final Score Prediction: Redskins 20 – Giants 21
Bears/+10/+11/Vikings 2.8% value
Vikings/43/43/No value
I’ve been betting the Vikings pretty consistently this year, and it’s paid off recently, but I’m leery of this big number in spite of the value I show on the line. Orton will start at QB for the Bears – it’d be hard to project him as being any worse than Grossman or Griese (though Griese has been okay). Kyle will have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball as any offensive success the Bears will have will have to come via the pass, as they have one of the league’s worst run offenses and will be facing one of the league’s best run defenses. The Vikings passing game has had good success since T. Jackson has come back from his injury as their play-action pass is as respected as any in the league, for the obvious AP and CT reasons. They should be able to keep the Bears’ defense off-balance in this one as well, and be able to break off running yards in pretty good chunks versus a Bears’ defensive line that has been playing hurt for much of the year. I’m thinking because the Bears will be playing catch up and throwing the ball a lot to begin with anyway that the Over might be the play here. It’s a dome game and features enough ways for both offenses to score points that I may take a little piece of the Over before the line rises heading into Monday night.
Final Score Prediction: Bears 17 – Vikings 27
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