Week #13 Recap

Week #13 Recap

Predicted Final Score:___Packers 23 – Cowboys 28

Actual Final Score:_____Packers 27 – Cowboys 37

The Cowboys were able to set up bigger passing plays downfield because of their run game, which helped to get a couple of big completions and pass interference calls. The Packer run offense did very other than the one big touchdown run by Ryan Grant. Ultimately, the Cowboy offense was too strong for the hobbled Packer defense and it would’ve been a 17 point victory if not for Owens’ hot potato handoff for an interception in the endzone. Aaron Rodgers did a phenomenal job in for the injured Favre, as he led them back to a close game. Who’s to say if Favre would’ve been able to do so with the way he struggled while he was in the game? This game really popped the magic bubble Favre has been floating in this year. He’s slated to play versus the Raiders this week, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he get the early hook if any part of his body is giving him troubles as Rodgers is probably capable of leading the team to a home win versus the Raiders. This Thursday game would set the trend of late points hurting me for the week to come. The Cowboys needed only more foot to get a last first down at which point they would’ve kneeled the ball instead of kicking the field goal that killed my baby middle.

½ Unit: Cowboys -6.5/Winner

½ Unit: Packers +7/Loser

Predicted Final Score:___Falcons 21 – Rams 17

Actual Final Score:_____Falcons 16 – Rams 28

I didn’t know that tryptophane could affect the body for 10 days, but it would appear to be true after the Falcons came out extremely sluggish in their first action since Thanksgiving day, falling behind 21-0 by halftime. They played with a better Holiday spirit in the second half, fighting back to within 16-21 and possession of the ball in Rams’ territory, but failed to score. Interestingly, the Falcons benched Harrington for Redman at QB after Harrington had failed to lead the team to any points. Redman did pretty well in mounting the comeback. With a minute and a half left, Stephen Jackson busts off a meaningless 50 yard run that kills my Under 42 play to make this game a complete bust for bets.

1 Unit: Falcons +3.5/Loser

1 Unit: Under 42/Loser

1/3 Unit: Falcons ML/Loser

Predicted Final Score:___Bills 10 – Redskins 23

Actual Final Score:_____Bills 17 – Redskins 16

The Redskins played 3 quarters of good football only to give the game away with several mistakes in the fourth quarter, including a boneheaded timeout call by coach Gibbs when the Redskins had none left, a fifteen yard penalty at the very end of the game that set the Bills up for a makeable game winning field goal. Gibbs’ coaching-comeback legacy will be of a coach who continually screwed up when there was little time left on the clock before the end of a half or game. The Redskins couldn’t get enough going on the ground versus a banged up Bills defense, which if anything is a testament to the Redskins’ major inconsistency in the running game this year, as they average only 3.91 yards per carry, below the league average of 4.02. They were horrible in the red zone and the lack of touchdowns got them in the end.

1 Unit: Redskins -5/Loser

1/2 Unit: Under 17.5 1^st half/Winner

3/4^th Unit: Under 37.5/Winner

½ Unit: Redskins to score first/Winner

½ Unit: No score 1^st 7:30 of game/Winner

Predicted Final Score:___Lions 19 – Vikings 26

Actual Final Score:_____Lions 10 – Vikings 42

The Lions haven’t just turned into lambs, they’ve been shorn a few times already as well. Adrian Petersons’ return at RB for the Vikings fueled an offensive onslaught that the lambs were unable to withstand. The Lions, playing from behind, were one-dimensional enough for even the mediocre Vikings’ pass defense to contain, as Kitna becomes super-sackable when you know he’s going to throw. The Vikings are hot, the Lambs not. Next.

3/4^th Unit: Vikings -3 (-120)/Winner

½ Unit: Vikings +3 2^nd half (-120)/Winner

½ Unit: Under 45/Loser

½ Unit: Over 44.5/Winner

Predicted Final Score:___Texans 19 – Titans 23

Actual Final Score:_____Texans 20 – Titans 28

Schaub went down again with an injury versus the Titans, and this time Rosenfels was unable to connect for four fourth quarter touchdown passes to lead them back. The first time these teams played this year, Bironas set the NFL record with 8 field goals. In this game? None, as he missed his only attempt – a 53 yarder into the wind before halftime. The Titans got the “must have” win in a game where I figured they’d be able to have enough offensive balance to get said win.

3/4^th Unit: Over 42/Winner

½ Unit: Under 41.5/Loser

½ Unit: Titans -3.5/Winner

½ Unit: Over 17.5 2^nd half/Winner

Predicted Final Score:___Jaguars 20 – Colts 30

Actual Final Score:_____Jaguars 25 – Colts 28

The Colts offensive had the predicted amount of success, but the Jaguars had more than the predicted success as they moved the ball better versus the Colts than anyone else has all year. Garrard did finally throw his first interception of the year, but he also completed over 75% of his passes, and the run game was very successful as well. Still a profitable game as the Over, Colts’ team totals, and the teaser with the Cowboys all cashed.

1 Unit: Colts -7 (1/4 on -6.5)/Loser

1 Unit: Over 44.5/Winner

½ Unit: Colts’ 1^st half team total Over 13.5/Winner

½ Unit: Colts’ Team Total Over 26/Winner

½ Unit: Under 21.5 2^nd half/Loser

Predicted Final Score:___Jets 20 – Dolphins 19

Actual Final Score:_____Jets 40 – Dolphins 13

John “He gives us the best chance of winning…smirk” Beck failed again to get a win, in this the first game where he actually had a decent chance. The Jets’ aggressive defense forced many turnovers which were converted into points. The Dolphins’ lone touchdown came on a fumble return for a score. When you can’t score an offensive touchdown versus the Jets at home, you know you’ve got offensive issues, lol. Chatman was reinjured again at RB for the Dolphins, but it mattered little as the Dolphins were trying to make up a large deficit for the entire second half. The Jets did get a garbage time touchdown run with less than 2 minutes left in the game to give me the second half Over play, the only late score of the week that actually helped me, I think.

1 Unit: Jets +3 2^nd half (-125)/Winner

1 Unit: Over 19.5 2^nd half/Winner

Predicted Final Score:___Chargers 21 – Chiefs 14

Actual Final Score:_____Chargers 24 – Chiefs 10

Huard left with an injury in the second half, and the Chiefs had to rely on third stringer Thigpen to try and get them back in the game. Didn’t happen.

½ Unit: Chargers -5.5/Winner

½ Unit: First score of the game a touchdown/Loser

½ Unit: No score first 7:30 of game/Loser

3/4^th Unit: Under 17.5 1^st half/Loser

Predicted Final Score:___Seahawks 17 – Eagles 26

Actual Final Score:_____Seahawks 28 – Eagles 24

The Eagles’ redzone futility fueled the Seahawks’ victory. It was painful to watch the Eagles fail four times to get into the endzone from the one yard line at the end of the first half. I needed that touchdown for an unposted Eagles and Over first half parlay, let alone the Eagles -3 for the game and the game Over. The end of the second half was déjà vu all over again, but this time from the 8 or 9 yard line, this time with Feeley completing his third pass to Lofa, the Seahawks’ linebacker, to end the game. At least the Seahawks know now that they can always put Lofa in at TE if need be. Hell, the Chiefs’ scored on a passing play to defensive end Jared Allen, so why not? Disappointing loss as the Eagles outgained the Seahawks but were killed by turnovers and those two goal line stands of the Seahawks.

1 Unit: Eagles -3/Loser

3/4^th Unit: Over 19.5 1^st half/Winner

3/4^th Unit: Over 39/Winner

½ Unit: Eagles score first/Loser

½ Unit: Eagles -3 2^nd half/Loser

Predicted Final Score:___49ers 10 – Panthers 24

Actual Final Score:_____49ers 14 – Panthers 31

This one followed the script. I recommended the Panthers as a survivor pool play, and am still patting myself on the back for that suggestion, lol. Some were calling for an upset in this one while I was calling for the blow out that did indeed materialize. If I’m not mistaken (entered all the stats in yesterday), I think this game had the most lopsided time of possession for the week.

1 Unit: Panthers -3/Winner

½ Unit: 49ers’ team total Under 16/Winner

½ Unit: Panthers score first/Winner

½ Unit: No score first 7:30 of game/Winner

Predicted Final Score:___Bucs 20 – Saints 20

Actual Final Score:_____Bucs 27 – Saints 23

Garcia didn’t play, but McCown followed the recent trend of back up quarterbacks playing pretty well. He started the game off on fire, completing his first 13 or 14 passes in a row. At the end of the game he had the clutch touchdown throw to Jeremy Stevens with seconds left on the clock to get the win instead of the tie. The Saints did indeed struggle versus the good Bucs’ defense.

1 Unit: Bucs +3.5/Winner

½ Unit: Over 21 1^st half/Winner

1 Unit: Over 21 2^nd half/Winner

Predicted Final Score:___Browns 24 – Cardinals 27

Actual Final Score:_____Browns 21 – Cardinals 27

The Cardinals capitalized on some Derek Anderson turnovers early in the game to jump out to a healthy lead, then ran the ball successfully with Edge James the rest of the game to protect their lead. The Cardinals defense did a good job of holding Anderson to around a 50% completion ratio in spite of the players they’ve lost to injuries. That bodes well as they travel to Seattle to face another pass-heavy team next week. The Browns lost after a very close reception in the endzone was ruled out at the end of the game. Tough, tough call.

½ Unit: Over 51/Loser

½ Unit: Under 24.5 2^nd half/Winner

Predicted Final Score:___Giants 17 – Bears 21

Actual Final Score:_____Giants 21 – Bears 16

This game was moving along swimmingly until the improbable 4^th quarter comeback by the weak Giants’ offense. This one was, of course, a tv game, as it always seems to be the tv games that screw me. The second half was a classic “everything that can go wrong, will go wrong” ending as the Bears failed to convert key 3^rd downs, Grossman’s passes sailed just over the fingertips of receivers streaking to the endzone, and the Giants converted everything in site. The icing on the ass kicking was the Giants scoring the late touchdown when they only needed the field goal to win the game, as that touchdown cost me the cover on the Bears +2 play. #*^!@%#!

1 Unit: Bears +2/Loser

1 Unit: Under 42.5/Winner

½ Unit: Bears +0.5 1^st half/Winner

½ Unit: First score a touchdown/Winner

½ Unit: No score first 7:30 of game/Loser

½ Unit: Over 39/Loser

½ Unit: Bears +2.5 2^nd half/Loser

½ Unit: Over 19.5 2^nd half/Loser

Predicted Final Score:___Broncos 27 – Raiders 17

Actual Final Score:_____Broncos 20 – Raiders 34

The Broncos’ run defense regressed to its’ former patsy self while their offense committed several turnovers. Combined this equaled a loss in a game they were favored to win. The wind in Oakland was just strong enough to affect the passing game a little. The Broncos weren’t quite healthy enough at running back to punish the Raiders’ weak defensive line. The Broncos weren’t able to log a single sack versus a team that normally gives up quite a few. All these small disadvantages and underperformances added up to a painful 14 point loss for the Broncos, who I thought would cruise to victory here. Oh well, at least I made up for it with the Over plays.

3/4^th Unit: Broncos -3.5/Loser

3/4^th Unit: Over 41.5/Winner

½ Unit: Broncos’ team total Over 22.5/Loser

½ Unit: Over 20.5 2^nd half/Winner

Predicted Final Score:___Bengals 17 – Steelers 24

Actual Final Score:_____Bengals 10 – Steelers 24

Heinz Field was not as messy as the week prior, but it was still messy enough that when combined with the cold and a little bit of precipitation it severely limited the Bengal pass offense that had been pretty hot coming into this game. Willie Parker looked like a kid trying to hang onto a greased pig at the county fair, but it didn’t matter as the Steeler defense saved the day.

1 Unit: Under 48/Winner

½ Unit: Bengals +7.5/Loser

½ Unit: Over 19.5 1^st half/Winner

½ Unit: Steelers -0.5 2^nd half/Winner

Predicted Final Score:___Patriots 35 – Ravens 14

Actual Final Score:_____Patriots 27 – Ravens 24

This game left a real bad taste in my mouth after a very delicious Sunday the day before. The reason? I lost money due to bad handicapping, and that really ticks me off. I bet the Patriots early in the week even though my spreadsheet didn’t show value on them. Plus, there was a chance for windy weather. The forecast got worse after my play was in, but I’ll be damned if I ever bet another 20 point road favorite that relies almost exclusively on the pass when the weather is going to be cold and windy. So…freaking…stupid. I still could’ve gotten off the play with a Ravens +19 play but thought the play still stood a decent chance. Of course in hindsight I wish I would’ve played 2 units on the Ravens to buy back the Pats play and hedge my Patriots -7 teaser, but nope, I didn’t bother until the second half, and then only did it for a ½ unit. I didn’t expect the Ravens to be able to run the ball so effectively, and Boller made some clutch plays. That third and eleven play in the first quarter where he avoided the sack and ended up making the completion that ended up going for 60 yards was the beginning of the end, really. And this after Watson dropped the easy touchdown on third down for the Patriots. After the second half plays were in I flip-flopped on what I was rooting for as the game progressed (rooting for any plays that had the best chance to cash), and it came down to me not wanting the Patriots to score at the end of the game so that I’d at least be able to cash my game Under and push my second half Under. Twice the Ravens just needed to make a couple of first downs to make the Patriots burn their time outs and potentially hang on to the ball and run out the clock, and both times they come up a yard or so short. And then, two daggers to the heart as the flag went flying after I’d celebrated the failed 4^th and 6 pass which led to the slightly juggled touchdown pass that sealed the deal. Friggin’ tv games, they’ll be the death of me.

1 Unit: Patriots -20/Loser (going against my spreadsheet loses 75% of the time)

½ Unit: Under 50.5/Loser (last minute half point loser)

½ Unit: Ravens +10.5 2^nd half (-120)/Winner

½ Unit: Under 24 2^nd half (-120)/Last minute loser

Week 13 Teasers:

1 Unit: Cowboys -0.5-Colts -1/Winner

1 Unit: Redskins +7.5/Chargers +8.5/Panthers +10.5/Bucs +16 – Winner

1 Unit: Redskins +7.5/Jets +14.5/Bears +14.5/Patriots -7 – Loser

I had a few buy backs this week that aren’t listed above, but the juice is logged in my record.

Week #13—Game Sides: -4.6/Game Totals: +2.8/Teasers: +0.8

Halves: +5.1/Quarters: None/Props n’ Parlays n’ Team Totals: +1.2

Week #13: +5.2 Units

***Year to Date***

Game Sides: +11.3/Game Totals: +7.4/Teasers: +4.9

Halves: +9.4/Quarters: +1.0/Props n’ Parlays n’ Team Totals: +4.0

YTD: +38 Units, ROI +10.57%, Average bet size = .76 Units, +50.1 Average bets