Only down about 1/2 a unit for the week in NFL, but a very frustrating week nonetheless, as I hit for better than 50% against all sides, but on the games I actually bet went 2-6. And I'm kicking myself because I got gun-shy on some of the big dogs after the week #2 dog fiasco. My spreadsheet liked both KC and BUF, but I passed on both. Early on it looked like a good decision, as BUF and KC were down 21-0 and 10-0 respectively, but then of course BUF came roaring back to win and KC only lost by 3. Instead, I pressed slim value on some favorites that I might not normally bet, going 1-2 on those added plays. These early weeks are when I feel less confident in my lines, but it's been random bad luck that even though I'm 51% on the sides for every game on the year, I'm down 10 units on the actual side bets I've made, leaving us just barely in the positive for the regular season. Sides have always been my toughest bet to show a good profit for -- indeed, I've had a solid winning season before when I didn't make a dime on sides overall. Oh well, I've started off the first month of the NFL in the hole more than once and ended up with good winning seasons every time but once -- that's the life of a statistics based handicapper.
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