Cue the lowlights reel, and get your popcorn. But first, let's start with the good. We saved 6 points on market moves, the only game that ended up really going against our midweek position was MIN, as that line went from around -3 EV to -1 or even pick right before kickoff. Suckers, I thought, as MIN romped to a 17-0 halftime lead. And then it was deja vu for MIN in the second half, sucking hopelessly and ultimately losing by 3. Other painful ways to lose: SD driving, down by 6 in the 4th quarter, and then a turnover, which SD ended up with 4 of, to 0 for NE. And still we would've pushed if SD doesn't get stuffed on the goal line before half. SF with a 10 point 4th quarter lead, and then coming within a yard of not even pushing as a +3 dog. MIA turning it over inside their own 10, giving a touchdown that ended up being the difference in a push on the spread. And MIA's Carpenter missing 2 medium to short FGs. KC losing RB Charles in the first quarter -- though it probably wouldn't have made a difference. CHI hanging in there with NO until their starting right tackle goes down early in the 3rd, while NO went on to get their six sacks of the day after that. GB with the ball with under 3 minutes to play, and all I need is for them to pick up a first down, maybe two, and run out the clock, but no, they throw a 70+ yard touchdown to kill both the Under and CAR, who had been covering all day. Our only luck on the day was CAR using the final 2 minutes to come back and cover one of the top plays of the week. The Jaguars -- well, they did have a truckload of turnovers, but hard to say it would've mattered the way they were dominated. The other top play of the day, TEN, was an upset winner, as I predicted. And then on to Monday Night, where a ball tipped 2 times and hauled in for a touchdown with 20+ seconds left in the first half ends up being the difference between pushing and winning.
Week 1 and Week 2 are a bigger gamble than usual, as it can be hard to strike the right balance between last year's stats and the way teams are looking this year. In all honestly I leaned stronger to last year's performances, and it ended up hurting me a little bit -- but it's a tough call, as for the most part the market was backing me up or at least neutral on my picks.
So up, yes, still up for the regular season, but it's less than a unit. Hey, it stinks to give back a nice chunk of change made on week #1, but showing any kind of profit through the first 3 weeks of the season is a bonus, as far as I'm concerned, as it's from week #4 on where I'm using exclusively this year's statistics.
I'll also be making some changes to my line-making formulas in an effort to get them sharper, as always.
No comments:
Post a Comment