SAINTS @ BEARS Week #15

If there is one person Drew Brees perpetually has a step on in football, it’s Kyle Orton. Orton followed in Brees’ footsteps to Purdue University and then to the NFL, but he’s never been able to put up passing numbers anywhere near those of Brees. Luckily for Orton, he hasn’t had to carry the team on his shoulders as the Bears have equaled the Saints’ 7-6 record with a better defense.

One might think that the Bears have the vastly superior run game, but the gap in quality is pretty close right now with both squads well below average. Not only that, both teams have had a soft run-defense schedule. The Bears have had the 23rd ranked toughest run defense schedule, while the Saints have had the 31st, one shy of the easiest schedule. Not so good for either team, with the small nod going to the Bears as teams have been able to key on their run game more than anyone dares to do versus the Saints’ passing offense. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combined for 182 rushing yards last week versus an admittedly poor Falcons’ run defense. Nobody puts 8 men in the box versus the Saints unless it’s a down & very short distance situation, and the Saints are taking advantage by running the ball more and more. Yes, Reggie Bush is back, which means Deuce McCallister is relegated to nothing more than an occasional 3rd and inches play, lol.

The Bears’ run defense won’t be getting any extra help this game, so expect the Saints to utilize a balanced offense that will keep the Bears’ defense on it’s heels all game, as they need the Bears to respect the run enough to maximize their success with the play action pass. The Bears’ will be relying on their front four to get pressure on Drew Brees, so don’t expect a lot of blitzes from them as they’re well aware that Brees is possibly the best quarterback in the league at getting rid of the ball when facing pressure. If their defensive line doesn’t get to Brees they’ll just be crossing their fingers and hoping that they have enough passing lanes clogged with defenders to break up passes or get interceptions, as Brees isn’t gun shy and will almost always throw the ball instead of taking a sack, and the Bears have been better at getting interceptions than sacking quarterbacks this year. The Bears’ defense has good reason to be very nervous in this game, as they’re just not solid enough defending the pass to get too creative.

The Bears have a below average 25th ranked run offense, and their pass offense is slightly worse at 26th. This is a good match up for the Saints’ defense. They got off to a poor start this season and have had to deal with a few injuries, but they’re back to near 100% up front and it’s showing up in their performances. In 6 of their last 9 games the Saints’ defense has held opponent’s to under 4 yards per carry, and some of those came versus some very good run teams – the Vikings, the Panthers, and the Falcons twice, all top 10 run offenses, and versus the Packers (15th) and Raiders (17th). The Bears are far below these teams.

Can Kyle Orton and the passing game compensate for the average at best run day the Bears can expect to have? Once again, the trends indicate that no, they will not. The Saints’ pass defense also struggled early in the season but has shown a lot of improvement as the defense has gelled as a complete unit. In precisely half of their last 8 games has a team thrown for more than 5.4 yards per pass versus the Saints – twice by the Falcons (ranked 5th), once by the Chargers (ranked 2nd), and once by the Panthers (ranked 8th), so only very good passing offenses are having success versus the Saints, and those were all games in which the Saints keyed on the opponent’s run offenses with pretty good success.

While the Saints’ defense has been improving, the same can’t be said for the Bears’ offense. Since week 3 they’ve only had two games in which they’ve gone above the opponent’s average allowed yards per run, once versus the abysmal Rams, and two weeks ago versus a good Vikings’ run defense, but they were playing from a double-digit deficit for the entire second half. Not since week #7 have they thrown for more yards per pass than an opponent usually allows, a very poor span of 6 consecutive games, 5 of which saw them throw for less than 5 yards per pass attempt.

In spite of their equal 7-6 records, these are really teams moving in opposite directions right now. Speaking of week #7, that was the last time the Bears beat a team with a winning record, the Vikings. Over the last 6 games the Bears have been outscored by more than 3 points per game, while the Saints have outscored their opponent’s by 4, and with a tougher schedule to boot.

Clearly, the wrong team is favored in this game and the cold weather alone won’t be enough to slow down and stop the Saints from winning a key game in the wildcard race. Drew Brees works harder than any other quarterback in the league in preparing for each game, and on a short week that may be an even bigger advantage he has versus Kyle Orton, who will once again be following in Drew’s wake after this game.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 24 – Bears 20