COLTS @ JAGUARS WEEK #16

The Jag Offense came alive last week versus the Packers. Garrard had a better than 100 QB rating versus a good but fading Green Bay pass defense. In that game they only ran the ball 18 times in spite of never trailing by more than 6 points, which is uncharacteristic for the Jaguars. Surely the fresh absence of Fred Taylor and their “nothing to lose” standing contributed to their decision to attack the Packers through the air even though the Packers’ run defense is their weakness. Backward thinking by the Jags got them the win, nevertheless. Perhaps the Packers were stacking the box and the Jags were merely taking advantage. With WRs Jerry Porter out and Matt Jones suspended, Dennis Northcutt had a big game going for 5 catches and well over a hundred yards. Suddenly the Jags have a deep threat.

The Colts’ defense is rather similar to the Packers – good at defending the pass and porous against the run. I suspect the Jaguars will utilize the play action quite a bit to penalize Indy for keeping many defenders close to the line of scrimmage. Indy has little choice, though, as they have to stop the run first.

The Colts’ offense should be incredibly pass-happy in this game. Addai is just coming back from injury, and a couple of their offensive lineman will be dinged up but playing. Hurt linemen typically fare better pass blocking than run blocking. Regardless, Manning and Co. will look to abuse the Jags’ secondary early and often. With cornerback Rashean Mathis lost for the year, the Jags are forced to put Brian Williams back into the starting role at cornerback, and the Colts completed every pass they threw against him last year when he was playing cornerback. Other than the secondary, the rest of the Jags’ defense is in okay shape. The front 7 have seen a few revolving injuries since about week #3 this season, and then veteran LB Mike Peterson was benched a few weeks ago after a tiff with head coach Del Rio. 2nd year LB Justin Durant got a starting job on the outside and Daryl Smith was moved inside when Peterson was sent to the doghouse. Now that Smith is lost for the year Peterson returns to the middle. Paul Spicer out at DE is the lone man missing from the front 4 that started the season.

Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities that will allow the opponent opportunities to exploit the necessary defensive adjustments. The Jags should find plenty of holes in the secondary, while the Colts should find ample running lanes or a lot of short passes to Addai that can quickly turn into decent gains. That being said, I think the Colts will still have a hard time running the ball even with the Jags defending the pass first, as the Colts are plain awful running the ball – the worst in the league by my rankings. The Jags, meanwhile, are near league average passing the ball, ranked 16th, so overall they’re better suited to take what the defense gives them.

The Colts are playing pretty good football, having won their last 7, but they haven’t exactly passed through murderer’s row, as none of their last 5 opponents, the Texans, Chargers, Browns, Bengals and Lions, has a winning record. They let the toothless Lions hang around well into the 2nd half last week at home. Only 3 times this season have the Colts beat a team by more than 6 points, and none of those have been on the road. I say look for more of the same this Thursday night. This essentially being a playoff game for the Colts means they shouldn’t be easing up offensively regardless of the score until very late in the contest, so I like the Over 44 as well. Weather conditions in Jacksonville Thursday night will be ideal.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 24 – Jaguars 21