Turkey Day Write-Ups and Lines

Week #12 Lines, Write-Ups and Final Score Predictions (Thursday games only for now)

Legend

Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value

Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

Green Bay/-3.5/-0.5/Detroit 6.2% value

Detroit/46.5/47/Over 1.3% value

Green Bay comes into this game red hot, while the Lions have struggled and lost in their last two. When you balance the season statistics, Green Bay has a small advantage which is negated by the game being in Detroit. So the question is, what is momentum worth in this game? Clearly the line and betting action is shaded toward Green Bay because they’re the ones with the positive momentum right now. I rarely adjust my lines to reflect momentum, unless a particular major statistical category has showed real improvement for 4 games. I’ve adjusted my line 1.5 points in favor of Green Bay because with all of their receivers now healthy I feel that the normal injury bonuses they are receiving do not suffice. Momentum may count for less, though, as both teams will have hardly had any time to think from the end of the last game until the start of this one on Thursday. If any team is due for a letdown, it’s the Packers, who’ve been winning handily and have to travel to Detroit for Thanksgiving. Happy Turkey Day, don’t get shot. The Lions are surely pissed after last week’s home loss to the Giants – a game that the Giants didn’t win by dint of a great performance, they were just fortunate that the Lions couldn’t do jack-crap the deeper they got into Giants’ territory.

Even though the numbers show value on the Lions, I won’t bet them, lol. I’m not gonna’ put my $$$ against a sizzling pass attack that is facing an average pass defense (unless it’s the Eagles getting +22) on a small 3.5 point spread.

While my O/U line is very close to the actual number, I’d lean on the Over as this will be a pass-dominated game. Both teams have had health issues at RB and have not been able to get their ground games going with any consistency this year. The Lions’ offensive line has had major problems just keeping defenders off of Kitna’s back every play, let alone protecting a running back who is actually heading toward said defenders. In games where both teams will clearly have more success passing the ball than running I think a sense of panic can creep into whichever team happens to be losing at the time, and they’re quicker to abandon the run in an effort to keep up. The winning team, still enjoying the superior match-up they have in the passing game, will often just keep on passing, usually with the benefit of a more effective play-action. The Lions abandon the run the coin flip, usually, while the Packers will only favor it if they have a sizeable late game lead. I’m not sure historically how the O/Us have fared on Thanksgiving, but you’d think that the lineman on both sides of the ball will tire a little more easily and just kind of sit there tangled up on the pass rush, giving the QB more time to find a receiver. It’s a theory, but AIverson needs to look up the numbers on it, lol.

Key Injuries: Green Bay – Johnny Jolly, DT out/Ryan Grant, RB “?”/Nick Collins, Sa, out. Detroit – Idrees Bashir, Sa, IR/Travis Fisher, CB, “?”

Final Score Prediction: Green Bay 27 – Detroit 24 (Crosby kicks the FG in OT. It’s okay, the Detroit fans are used to being disappointed while stuffing themselves with stuffing.)

New York Jets/+14/+22/Cowboys 16.7% value

Dallas/47.5/46.5/Under 1.6% value

The Jets outcoached and outplayed the Steelers last week to score the upset at home. The party was short-lived as they have to travel to Dallas for a Thursday game. The Dallas pass defense was pretty awful versus a Redskins team that had several injuries at the WR position. Santana Moss, who I thought would be gimpy in that game, ended up looking pretty unaffected and a really good game, helping the Redskins cover the spread.

The Jets’ defense might as well blitz away in this game as well, because they’re at a huge disadvantage in defending both the pass and run versus the Cowboys. They’ll want to take chances like they did versus the Steelers in an attempt to get the big drive-ending play. Bad defenses should gamble with aggression when they’re clearly outmatched, it just makes sense. Tony Romo is a lot better at avoiding the sack then Big Ben, though, and even more capable of making the Jets pay with a big play, so it should be an exciting game when the Cowboys have the ball. The Cowboys may choose to pound Barber and Jones at the soft Jets’ defensive line more than they normally would, particularly if Patrick Crayton, WR, ends up missing the game (good chance he will miss). The Cowboys are not deep at receiver. After Owens and Crayton there is Sam Hurd with 10 catches, and that’s about it. Isaiah Stanback, rookie, should be back from an injury, but he’s been out all year, as has Terry Glenn. Other than that there’s second year man Miles Austin with zero receptions. But anyway you look at it, the Cowboys should be able to exploit anything the Jets’ defense throws at them. I expect the Cowboys to run first, then burn them with the big YAC when they find single coverage.

As the Jets will be playing from behind all game, it’ll fall on the shoulders of Kellen Clemens to make enough plays to generate scoring drives. The Cowboys, in spite of looking pretty poor at pass defense last week, give up an average of 5.6 yards per pass attempt, which is pretty good; a half yard better than league average. So Clemens will be putting his 59.2 QB rating up on the visitors’ Thanksgiving table for the Cowboys to devour. After last week, I think the Cowboys will be pretty hungry to eat this kid up. If the Cowboys don’t wait until the end of the first half to score their first points this week, this game will back-door proofed by the time the final 6 minutes are played.

Key Injuries: Jets – Dewayne Robertson, DT, “?”/Eric Smith, Sa, “?”/L. Coles, WR, doubtful – Cowboys – Patrick Crayton, “?”

Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 35 – Jets 13

Indianapolis/-11.5/-10/Atlanta 3.4% value

Atlanta/41/41/No value

The Colts’ lack of depth at wide receiver nearly cost them for a third straight week, but they eked out a 3 point home victory versus the offensively challenged Chiefs. The situation doesn’t look a whole lot better this week. They’ll have Dallas Clark back again, though he had the same amount of catches as Utecht last week (3), while Utecht had almost twice as many yards. The Colts were pretty deep at TE with Clark, Utecht and Fletcher to begin with, but with Fletcher missing last game and being questionable for this one, Clark will have to carry his usual load in the passing game. Aaron Morehead just got IR’d, but Anthony Gonzalez will see playing time while recovering from his broken hand. How recovered is the hand? I don’t know, but it could affect his ability to catch the ball. That leaves Reggie Wayne as the only good, healthy receiver for the Colts. The Colts may very well under perform on offense again this week, even against the Falcons. They’re a dome team playing in a dome tomorrow, but the crowd noise will be up when he’s on offense (as long as the game stays semi-close), so who knows, maybe they’ll be some miscommunication with all of the audibles to some of the less experienced guys. Have you seen the latest commercial at “Joe’s Café” about Peyton Manning and his audibles? Freakin’ hilarious, I love that commercial.

Bobby Petrino, in a rare moment of lucidity, reinstated Joey Harrington as the starting QB this week. I have the Colts’ pass defense rated second best, so the Falcons will probably favor the run game with Dunn and Norwood for as long as they can. Those two backs may wish it was Colonel Sanders playing safety for the Colts instead of Bob after he gets to them a few times. They’ll be like, “Damn, we’re already eating turkey today, we don’t need no chicken too,” lol. Apologies for the random humor.

As the softer part of the Falcons’ defense is stopping the run, I expect the Colts to run ball with Addai and Keith a lot this game. The Falcons will be hard pressed to slow down the Colts’ offense enough to have a shot at winning this game, as their defense is average to poor across the board. As the Colts will have more success in both the running and passing games (the kicking may be a wash as Morten “The Mummy” Anderson is probably as good as Adam “Ghost of Vanderjagt” Vinatieri right now), they should cruise to a ten point victory on the road.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 26 – Falcons 16