Week #20 Plays & Results 2008

+6.14 Units. 3 solid winning weeks in the playoffs.

My Record, Through Week #20 (+ the Past 4 Years)

From posted plays at 2 online forums through week #7, and plays posted for subscribers after that:

Sides & Money Lines: +28.1 Units
Totals: +37.4 Units
Teasers: +10.6 Units
Halves (Primarily second): +24.5 Units
Quarters: +4 Units
Props & Parlays & Team Totals: +24.4 Units

Total: +129.1 Units

Average Bet Size = .92 Units, +140.1 Average Sized Bets
ROI = 11.52%

Here are the links to my past season's year end results. One thing to keep in mind is that in the past my average sized bet was nearer to a half unit, unlike now, where it's closer to (but less than) a full unit.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=547034&page=5 2007 -- +49.5 Average Sized Bets

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=450890 2006 -- +29 Average Sized Bets

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=345443 2005 -- +14.5 Units, probably in the +25 Average Sized Bets range.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=258707 2004 -- +30.5 Units, probably in the +55 Average Sized Bets range (58% on all Units bet)

Divisional Round Playoffs 2008 Plays & Results

Wildcard Round Plays & Results 2008

Solid winning week. The BAL/MIA game was the only one to show a loss. The week would've been about 3.5 units better if Westbrook hadn't of popped that 71 yard touchdown in the 4th quarter! Still, I couldn't be too upset that the biggest play of the week, the Under 42 in the MIN/PHI stayed Under after 30 points in the first half. 2nd half plays stayed hot, going 4 for 4.

Week #17 Quality Control

Turnovers in all the wrong places this week. Both games with a -4 turnover ratio I had the other side for 1 unit, and in the 2 games with a +3 ratio I had only one of the sides bet for 2/3 of a unit. With the wind in Buffalo I nulled the total for record keeping by matching my projection to the closing line.

50% or better on both sides and totals again -- the results have been very consistent since making some serious changes that made the lines more dogcentric, though we've only had one huge week in terms of units won since doing so, as we've so often been on the wrong side of turnovers and big plays.

Still, it's been a fantastic season at +110 units (117 average sized bets) with a 10.45% ROI, which is almost unheard of.

Week #17 Plays & Results

We did really well on saving points versus line moves this week, only left holding the bag on one play, the NE/BUF Over 42 I made earlier in the week. I woke up on the West coast on Sunday morning to see the line had plummeted with the ridiculously strong winds that moved into Buffalo overnight. I capped the negative line movement for the tally at 3 points, as all of the line movement was associated with the turn of the weather, and not any inherent value on the Under in otherwise normal conditions.

Being on the right side of so many line moves did us little good this week, however, as they breaks went against us to a large degree. -8 turnover margin overall. The Patriots once again cooked my goose. The Bills actually outgained the Patriots, yet failed to score any points -- such are the fruits of an undisciplined team like the Bills. Their debacle at the end of the first half was truly a thing of horror -- failing to get off a field goal attempt with almost 30 seconds on the clock. If they get that field goal is breaks up the "No - 3 unanswered scores" string of scores that the Patriots had (only 3 total scores), making the 1 unit play a probable winner, a 2.6 unit swing. And the Bufs failing to cover the 7 point spread (I bought the hook from 6.5) after outgaining the Pats is another 2.2 unit swing -- et voila! The difference between a winning and losing week.

On the plus side the stronger plays of the week did very well - all 4 plays that were greater than 1 unit won (KC/CIN Over 37 lost, but I did have one unit on the Under 40 going for the middle).

After going 4 for 5 for +3.5 units on the "No - 3 Unanswered Scores" plays a couple of weeks ago, they didn't do well in week #17, going 1 for 5 and -1.725 units.

Week #16 Plays and Results

We'd been chugging along near even the last few weeks as we couldn't seem to buy many breaks. This week we had a near avalanche of breaks -- though two of the turnovers curried by teams I favored the spread ended up killing two plays. In both the TEN/PIT and SD/TB games I recommended the "No - 3 Unanswered Scores" prop play. The wager was winning in the TEN/PIT game until TEN returned an interception for a score with 16 seconds left in the game -- a play where the defender usually just slides to the ground 9 out of 10 times, so that was a bad beat and a 2.4 unit swing. The Chargers picked off Garcia and ran it back to kill the play with 2 or 3 minutes left in the game. Grr. Both of those plays went down in the early games, but they ended up being mere sacrifices to the incredible boon of good fortune in the later games, as we swept nearly every play in site. All in all, recommended subscriber plays ended up at +22.2 units, an incredible 4th time getting 20+ units in a week this season. Plays on totals had gone 10 for 10 until losing on the Over 40 on the Monday night game by 3 points.