The Bills broke a 4-game slide with a victory over the Chiefs last week – a reason for renewed hope? Yes and no. The return of Josh Reed at WR helped Trent Edwards to his career best passing day, but then again, it was against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Still, Trent Edwards was happy to take something positive away from a game for once, regardless of how it came. Their running game was so-so, with Marshawn Lynch averaging just under 4 yards per carry versus an extremely poor run defense.
Defensively, the only thing they did right was get 5 turnovers. They gave up 462 yards to a Chiefs’ offense that only learned how to do anything successfully a mere month ago. Without those turnovers the Bills are probable losers as they were outgained by the Chiefs. It was a good day for rookie CB Leodis McKelvin who had to fill in for the injured Jabari Greer. Coach Jauron has been hesitant to start McKelvin before, but had little choice here, and McKelvin had two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown. McKelvin also had a kickoff return for a touchdown 2 weeks ago versus Cleveland. Leodis was the 11th overall pick out of Troy last year. I wonder if anyone has ever been drafted in the top 10 out of Troy? The Bills run defense gave up 159 yards on only 13 carries as Larry Johnson busted off a 63 yarder.
The Bills have given up an average of 157 yards rushing over their last 3 games, all to teams that are pretty good at running the ball. The 49ers are only ranked a little lower in rush offense than the Bills’ past 3 opponents, in small part due to the horrendous day the 49ers had running the ball versus Dallas last week. The 49ers should rebound on the ground and also go for over a hundred yards rushing versus the Bills. As the Bills top defensive priority will be stopping Frank Gore, 49er QB Shaun Hill should find himself with little pressure in the pocket except for on obvious passing downs, which is when the Bills like to stand up out of their stance and wave their arms about crazily in an effort to intimidate opposing offenses. Mostly it’s just for show, though, as the Bills are 29th in the league in sacks per pass plays defensed, and 19th in pass defense. Shaun Hill is a pretty cool cat that can hang in the pocket and deliver the ball anyway.
49ers’ CB Nate Clements had a horrible day defensively guarding Terrell Owens last week. Clements, a high-priced CB, is supposed to be able to hold his own versus any top receiver, but got burned on 3 big plays where the play call didn’t have him jamming Terrell at the line of scrimmage. Clements has typically been a guy that likes to play off the receiver and bait the quarterback into throwing his way. In Buffalo he did that a lot simply because he was playing in a weak secondary where he felt more harm would be done if he guarded his man tightly, forcing the QB to throw against weaker parts of the secondary. I don’t know if it’s the luck of the bounce or what, but the 49ers have been one of the worst teams in the league this year at getting interceptions. I have a feeling they’ll get one or two off of Edwards this week, though. Edwards didn’t throw any picks after throwing 3 in the first half versus Cleveland the week before. He is often guilty of staring down his receivers, which could easily lead to some picks versus experienced route-hopping CBs Clements and Harris. Edwards figures to be in numerous obvious passing downs this game as the 49ers’ 8th ranked run defense should keep the Bills’ 27th ranked run offense in check on many plays.
In summary, the 49ers, because of the big edge they have in the running game, will find the passing lanes and pass rush far more open than the Bills will, propelling them to a road victory versus a Bills team primed to continue it’s backsliding after a one week respite versus the Chiefs.
Final Score Prediction: 49ers 23 – Bills 21
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Week #12 Quality Control
Funny week on totals, as even though I hit 75% across the board I was only up 1 unit on the plays. Of the 4 stat estimated totals in which my original projections were wrong, 2 of those I actually bet and won on. 2 of my strongest Unders, 2 unit plays, lost in actuality though they should've covered. In fact, not a single Under that I bet last week should've lost, though 3 of them did. Even the NO/GB game, oddly enough, should've gone Under the 53.5 opening line by a few points. Turnovers, short fields from returns, and insane red zone production pushed that one way over the total, unfortunately. So yeah, funny week as a couple of the 1 unit plays won that shouldn't have, while a couple of the bigger plays lost that should've won.
On sides it was more bad luck than good, as once again I managed to bet on a few teams that outgained their opponents in straight up losses. On the turnover ratio I was -6, mostly due to the -5 ratio in 2 separate games -- both of which happened to be featured write up games that went horribly wrong. The Eagles did indeed suck, but by yards and yards per play they should've only lost by a couple of points, while the Chiefs in fact should've beat the Bills. The Cardinals, Panthers and Chargers also outgained their opponents in losing causes.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Eagles @ Ravens
The Eagles have been the laughing stock of the NFL this week. Not only did they barely hang on to a tie versus the Bengals, a team they should have shredded, but QB Donovan McNabb admitted to not understanding the overtime rule as implemented during the regular season. For the humiliation suffered on both accounts you have to figure the Eagles to be coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder.
The Ravens’ defense likes to present itself as big, bad and scary, but last week the Giants took a giant sized Edgar Allen Poe right on their heads, rushing for over 200 yards. The week before that the Texans ran the ball for a spiffy 4.7 yards per carry against them. Sure, the Ravens still have the 4th highest rated run defense by my numbers, but they’re no impregnable fortress, as the last two weeks have shown. Against the pass I have the Ravens’ defense ranked 11th, but that’s mostly on the back of some really good defensive games early in the season. In their last 6 games, they’ve only held one team to under 6 yards per pass attempt, and that team was the dreadful Raiders. As a matter of fact, the Ravens have given up 6.8 yards per attempt on average for their last 6 games.
The Ravens’ backsliding defense now hosts an unfavorable match up with the Eagles’ offense. The Eagles have been below average running the ball all year, but have an offense that doesn’t need to run it much to win. The Eagles in their last two games have faced a pass defense ranked better than the Ravens, the Giants, and one that’s only slightly worse, the Bengals, who’ve played equally well versus the pass over their last 6 games by comparison. I mention these last two opponents because the Eagles underperformed throwing the ball versus these two teams, averaging 5.45 yards per pass. In their four games prior to that they’d averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt. At worst, the Eagles should get near 6 yards per pass attempt, and I project them to do much better than that at 6.9 yards per pass attempt as the Ravens’ secondary has been getting progressively more injured over the course of the season, while the Eagles’ offense has been getting healthier (with the exception of Pro Bowl guard Shaun Andrews who has been out for quite a few weeks now).
The Eagles should have their fair share of offensive success with the pass and score some points. Will the Ravens be able to match their success offensively? The answer appears to be no, as the Ravens lack the majestic presence in the sky to match the Eagles. Joe Flacco is, by all measures, a success story this year, but you need to look at his individual performances to see the real picture here, and the picture is this: Flacco can pass on poor pass defenses, but not on good ones. Okay, it’s a pretty simple picture – one that a slow kindergartner could have sketched in a few minutes, but it’s the truth. Flacco has yet to throw for over 6 yards per pass attempt versus an above average pass defense this year. Not only do the Eagles have the 9th ranked pass defense, they’re number one at sacking opposing quarterbacks, and Flacco has been known to take his share of sacks. Heck, even the Browns sacked him twice, and they don’t sack anybody. The Texans, a below average pass rushing team, dropped him 3 times two games ago. The Giants only got him once last game, but Flacco threw 2 interceptions, so any game planning that involved taking less sacks may have directly translated into throwing more interceptions. The Ravens will likely be without starting left tackle Jared Gaither this week, and may slide right tackle Adam Terry over to take his place. Offensive line shuffling is rarely a good thing, even less so versus a team that brings the kind of pressure the Eagles do.
Can the Ravens pick up the slack by running the ball? Not likely. The Eagles’ run defense seems to have a threshold that causes opponent’s run offenses to slide pretty sharply to one side or the other. Most good running teams have gained about 5 yards per carry versus them, while average to poor running teams only go for about 2.8. Even a normally good running team like the Falcons only gained 3.2 yards per carry on them. The Ravens are just average running the ball, and the Eagles will be defending the run first as long as the game is within reach for either side, so except the Ravens’ yards per carry to be at the lower end of the threshold.
Ravens’ coach John Harbaugh spent 10 years as a coach with the Eagles prior to taking the head coaching position this year. Will familiarity be an advantage for him and his team? Maybe a little, but not enough to alter the spread for the game (unless they prove otherwise, lol).
In summary, the Ravens and rookie Joe Flacco will have a hard time gaining yards and points versus the Eagles’ stingy defense – a tricky blitzing defense known to give fits to inexperienced quarterbacks. The Eagles’ passing game should have enough success to win the game even if the running game gets shelved somewhere along the way.
Final Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – Ravens 17
The Ravens’ defense likes to present itself as big, bad and scary, but last week the Giants took a giant sized Edgar Allen Poe right on their heads, rushing for over 200 yards. The week before that the Texans ran the ball for a spiffy 4.7 yards per carry against them. Sure, the Ravens still have the 4th highest rated run defense by my numbers, but they’re no impregnable fortress, as the last two weeks have shown. Against the pass I have the Ravens’ defense ranked 11th, but that’s mostly on the back of some really good defensive games early in the season. In their last 6 games, they’ve only held one team to under 6 yards per pass attempt, and that team was the dreadful Raiders. As a matter of fact, the Ravens have given up 6.8 yards per attempt on average for their last 6 games.
The Ravens’ backsliding defense now hosts an unfavorable match up with the Eagles’ offense. The Eagles have been below average running the ball all year, but have an offense that doesn’t need to run it much to win. The Eagles in their last two games have faced a pass defense ranked better than the Ravens, the Giants, and one that’s only slightly worse, the Bengals, who’ve played equally well versus the pass over their last 6 games by comparison. I mention these last two opponents because the Eagles underperformed throwing the ball versus these two teams, averaging 5.45 yards per pass. In their four games prior to that they’d averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt. At worst, the Eagles should get near 6 yards per pass attempt, and I project them to do much better than that at 6.9 yards per pass attempt as the Ravens’ secondary has been getting progressively more injured over the course of the season, while the Eagles’ offense has been getting healthier (with the exception of Pro Bowl guard Shaun Andrews who has been out for quite a few weeks now).
The Eagles should have their fair share of offensive success with the pass and score some points. Will the Ravens be able to match their success offensively? The answer appears to be no, as the Ravens lack the majestic presence in the sky to match the Eagles. Joe Flacco is, by all measures, a success story this year, but you need to look at his individual performances to see the real picture here, and the picture is this: Flacco can pass on poor pass defenses, but not on good ones. Okay, it’s a pretty simple picture – one that a slow kindergartner could have sketched in a few minutes, but it’s the truth. Flacco has yet to throw for over 6 yards per pass attempt versus an above average pass defense this year. Not only do the Eagles have the 9th ranked pass defense, they’re number one at sacking opposing quarterbacks, and Flacco has been known to take his share of sacks. Heck, even the Browns sacked him twice, and they don’t sack anybody. The Texans, a below average pass rushing team, dropped him 3 times two games ago. The Giants only got him once last game, but Flacco threw 2 interceptions, so any game planning that involved taking less sacks may have directly translated into throwing more interceptions. The Ravens will likely be without starting left tackle Jared Gaither this week, and may slide right tackle Adam Terry over to take his place. Offensive line shuffling is rarely a good thing, even less so versus a team that brings the kind of pressure the Eagles do.
Can the Ravens pick up the slack by running the ball? Not likely. The Eagles’ run defense seems to have a threshold that causes opponent’s run offenses to slide pretty sharply to one side or the other. Most good running teams have gained about 5 yards per carry versus them, while average to poor running teams only go for about 2.8. Even a normally good running team like the Falcons only gained 3.2 yards per carry on them. The Ravens are just average running the ball, and the Eagles will be defending the run first as long as the game is within reach for either side, so except the Ravens’ yards per carry to be at the lower end of the threshold.
Ravens’ coach John Harbaugh spent 10 years as a coach with the Eagles prior to taking the head coaching position this year. Will familiarity be an advantage for him and his team? Maybe a little, but not enough to alter the spread for the game (unless they prove otherwise, lol).
In summary, the Ravens and rookie Joe Flacco will have a hard time gaining yards and points versus the Eagles’ stingy defense – a tricky blitzing defense known to give fits to inexperienced quarterbacks. The Eagles’ passing game should have enough success to win the game even if the running game gets shelved somewhere along the way.
Final Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – Ravens 17
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Bills @ Chiefs Week #12
Week #12 finds the Bills, who started the season 5-1, at 5-5, which the simple math will tell you is a 4 game losing streak, including one loss a piece to each of their divisional foes. A real cause for concern has been the steadily declining play of QB Trent Edwards, who instead of looking like a Stanford graduate looks more like someone cramming for his GED in between offensive series. Last Monday night versus the Browns he seemed completely unsure of where and when to throw the ball even with the 4-alligator pass rush count the Browns were giving him. 2 of the 3 interceptions he threw on his first 6 pass attempts were clearly his fault. Still, the Bills had a chance to win the game with a makeable field goal at the end (wide right!) because the Browns have continued under Brady Quinn to be goal line teases, only 25th best at converting in the red zone.
This week the Bills are on the road at Kansas City. As bad as the Kansas City defense has been, it’s really not much worse than the Browns at this juncture, so there’s little reason to be optimistic that the Bills’ offense will suddenly return to early season form even though facing one of the worst defenses in the league. They had 20 points scored on offense versus the Browns and should get very near the same amount this week. In their favor is the fact that the Chiefs’ special teams coverage hasn’t been special so there’s a chance of a kick return score just like they had versus the Browns.
The most notable absences in the Chiefs’ defensive starting line up will be linebackers Donnie Edwards and Pat Thomas. The Bills’ defensive injuries include safety Donte Whitner (out) and safety Bryan Scott (questionable) which means there’s a 50% chance that the Bills will have 2 second stringers starting at safety this game. Their best (and looking like only at this point) pass rusher, Aaron Schobel, will be out again as well.
Offensively, the Bills will more than likely get starting WR Josh Reed back. If he’s near 100% I guess we’ll find out how much better the Buffalo passing game is with him back in the line up, as Hardy was ineffectual in replacing him and was benched in favor of Steve Johnson who played solidly with 3 receptions last game. #1 Receiver Lee Evans didn’t have a single catch on Monday night. Injuries along the offensive line have been doing no favors to the Bills as well, but those ailments seem to be clearing up. Honestly, this game is shaping up to be the litmus test as to whether Trent Edwards continues as the Bills’ QB of the future, because the grumbling in Buffalo is getting louder every week. If Edwards can’t get it done with his offense healthy versus a bottom-dwelling defense I don’t see how a full-blown QB controversy will not exist with this team once again.
The Chiefs, well aware that they have a largely non-existent pass rush with only 6 sacks on the year will do the same thing defensively that the Browns did -- rush 3 or 4 players while disguising coverages and hope Trent Edwards continues to make mistakes. The Chiefs, in spite of their poor record, have been really good at getting turnovers this year.
Offensively, the momentum the Chiefs have been building since Tyler Thigpen became the default QB starter and the spread offense he’s comfortable with running should continue in this game. In the spread with 2 tight ends lined up as receivers they’ve still been able to run quite a bit and their run game has improved dramatically facing defensive fronts forced to stretch themselves thinner from sideline to sideline. 3 of these 4 games have been without Larry “The Loogie” Johnson, as well. He returned last week and the Chiefs had another solid running game versus the Saints. The Chiefs’ passing game did have its’ worst outing in 4 weeks last game, but they should bounce back nicely this week versus an average Buffalo pass defense. WR Mark Bradley is listed as “?” though, for what it’s worth. Offensively, the Chiefs are playing better than the Bills in both facets right now, and if you can say that one team of two who have both lost their last 4 games has any kind of momentum, it’s the Chiefs.
The Bills are at a disadvantage coming in on a short week of rest, preparation and travel to face an offense unlike anything else they’ve seen this year. If the Chiefs can limit the Bills to good, but not multiple great kick returns Sunday (which won’t be easy, truthfully) I like their new found balanced offensive success to propel them to a home victory.
Final Score Prediction: Bills 21 – Chiefs 23
This week the Bills are on the road at Kansas City. As bad as the Kansas City defense has been, it’s really not much worse than the Browns at this juncture, so there’s little reason to be optimistic that the Bills’ offense will suddenly return to early season form even though facing one of the worst defenses in the league. They had 20 points scored on offense versus the Browns and should get very near the same amount this week. In their favor is the fact that the Chiefs’ special teams coverage hasn’t been special so there’s a chance of a kick return score just like they had versus the Browns.
The most notable absences in the Chiefs’ defensive starting line up will be linebackers Donnie Edwards and Pat Thomas. The Bills’ defensive injuries include safety Donte Whitner (out) and safety Bryan Scott (questionable) which means there’s a 50% chance that the Bills will have 2 second stringers starting at safety this game. Their best (and looking like only at this point) pass rusher, Aaron Schobel, will be out again as well.
Offensively, the Bills will more than likely get starting WR Josh Reed back. If he’s near 100% I guess we’ll find out how much better the Buffalo passing game is with him back in the line up, as Hardy was ineffectual in replacing him and was benched in favor of Steve Johnson who played solidly with 3 receptions last game. #1 Receiver Lee Evans didn’t have a single catch on Monday night. Injuries along the offensive line have been doing no favors to the Bills as well, but those ailments seem to be clearing up. Honestly, this game is shaping up to be the litmus test as to whether Trent Edwards continues as the Bills’ QB of the future, because the grumbling in Buffalo is getting louder every week. If Edwards can’t get it done with his offense healthy versus a bottom-dwelling defense I don’t see how a full-blown QB controversy will not exist with this team once again.
The Chiefs, well aware that they have a largely non-existent pass rush with only 6 sacks on the year will do the same thing defensively that the Browns did -- rush 3 or 4 players while disguising coverages and hope Trent Edwards continues to make mistakes. The Chiefs, in spite of their poor record, have been really good at getting turnovers this year.
Offensively, the momentum the Chiefs have been building since Tyler Thigpen became the default QB starter and the spread offense he’s comfortable with running should continue in this game. In the spread with 2 tight ends lined up as receivers they’ve still been able to run quite a bit and their run game has improved dramatically facing defensive fronts forced to stretch themselves thinner from sideline to sideline. 3 of these 4 games have been without Larry “The Loogie” Johnson, as well. He returned last week and the Chiefs had another solid running game versus the Saints. The Chiefs’ passing game did have its’ worst outing in 4 weeks last game, but they should bounce back nicely this week versus an average Buffalo pass defense. WR Mark Bradley is listed as “?” though, for what it’s worth. Offensively, the Chiefs are playing better than the Bills in both facets right now, and if you can say that one team of two who have both lost their last 4 games has any kind of momentum, it’s the Chiefs.
The Bills are at a disadvantage coming in on a short week of rest, preparation and travel to face an offense unlike anything else they’ve seen this year. If the Chiefs can limit the Bills to good, but not multiple great kick returns Sunday (which won’t be easy, truthfully) I like their new found balanced offensive success to propel them to a home victory.
Final Score Prediction: Bills 21 – Chiefs 23
Texans @ Browns Week #12
“Defenseless” – The Week 12 Movie Starring the Texans and Browns
When the Browns’ 25th ranked rush defense is the highest ranking group of the Browns’ and Texans’ combined rush and pass defenses, you know you’re not going to sit down to a game of field position in Cleveland come Sunday. The Browns’ 29th ranked pass defense, and the Texans’ 26th ranked run defense and 27th ranked pass defense all at least share the honor of not being amongst the 3 lowest rated groups in the league. Both teams are known for poor tackling. If football were fishing these two teams would return home after 30 minutes of unsuccessfully trying to open the tackle box, without a single cast into the water.
Having quickly established that defense will not be at a premium, which offense will best capitalize on the capitulating defenses? Curtly, the Texans. Both teams have excellent run offenses this year, the Texans ranked 5th and the Browns 4th. Both teams are starting quarterbacks who were not the starters at the beginning of the year. The Texans, because of injury. The Browns, because of “What the Hell, we suck this year so we might as well see what Brady Quinn can do.” Both replacements have been pretty good so far, though Sage Rosenfels has been far more careless with the ball, though he does throw for a much higher yards per pass. The Texans throw (by my rescored stats) for 7.3 yards per pass, while the Browns throw for 5.8. That’s a pretty significant advantage, and one I’ll bet on.
Not only do the Texans have the advantage in the passing game, they should have the advantage in the running game for a couple of reason. One, Jerome Harrison, the quick back who’s had some big runs for the Browns this season, including a 72 yarder for a touchdown versus the Bills last week, is freshly injured and is looking doubtful for this week. That takes away the one two punch the Browns have utilized successfully this year with Jamal Lewis. The Texans have developed their own successfully running back combo with the speedy rookie Steve Slaton and the “I can’t believe he’s not still injured” short yardage back Ahman Green. The Texans rested Slaton a couple of weeks ago versus the Ravens as the rookie was starting to tire out some, and he came back fresh with a big game versus the Colts last week, getting 150+ on the ground.
With a better backfield, more experienced quarterback (keep the turnovers down please, Sage) and equally poor defenses, I like the Texans to get their first road victory of the season this week. On a side note, the Texans do have the worst red zone defense in the league, but Quinn is yet to show a consistent ability to crack the goal line when near it, as the compressed field is generally the toughest place for inexperienced quarterbacks to play well. The Texans are more successful than the Browns in the red zone, so it should balance out pretty evenly.
In spite of the poor defenses and the title of this write up, I don’t like this game to go Over 50 points as both teams figure to run quite a bit. It only takes a few clock-grinding drives ending in short field goals to keep a game under 50 barring multiple large special teams or defensive plays/scores. That being said, I sure as shinola wouldn’t take the Under either, as this game is as likely as any to go for 50 or 60 points this week.
Final Score Prediction: Texans 24 – Browns 23
When the Browns’ 25th ranked rush defense is the highest ranking group of the Browns’ and Texans’ combined rush and pass defenses, you know you’re not going to sit down to a game of field position in Cleveland come Sunday. The Browns’ 29th ranked pass defense, and the Texans’ 26th ranked run defense and 27th ranked pass defense all at least share the honor of not being amongst the 3 lowest rated groups in the league. Both teams are known for poor tackling. If football were fishing these two teams would return home after 30 minutes of unsuccessfully trying to open the tackle box, without a single cast into the water.
Having quickly established that defense will not be at a premium, which offense will best capitalize on the capitulating defenses? Curtly, the Texans. Both teams have excellent run offenses this year, the Texans ranked 5th and the Browns 4th. Both teams are starting quarterbacks who were not the starters at the beginning of the year. The Texans, because of injury. The Browns, because of “What the Hell, we suck this year so we might as well see what Brady Quinn can do.” Both replacements have been pretty good so far, though Sage Rosenfels has been far more careless with the ball, though he does throw for a much higher yards per pass. The Texans throw (by my rescored stats) for 7.3 yards per pass, while the Browns throw for 5.8. That’s a pretty significant advantage, and one I’ll bet on.
Not only do the Texans have the advantage in the passing game, they should have the advantage in the running game for a couple of reason. One, Jerome Harrison, the quick back who’s had some big runs for the Browns this season, including a 72 yarder for a touchdown versus the Bills last week, is freshly injured and is looking doubtful for this week. That takes away the one two punch the Browns have utilized successfully this year with Jamal Lewis. The Texans have developed their own successfully running back combo with the speedy rookie Steve Slaton and the “I can’t believe he’s not still injured” short yardage back Ahman Green. The Texans rested Slaton a couple of weeks ago versus the Ravens as the rookie was starting to tire out some, and he came back fresh with a big game versus the Colts last week, getting 150+ on the ground.
With a better backfield, more experienced quarterback (keep the turnovers down please, Sage) and equally poor defenses, I like the Texans to get their first road victory of the season this week. On a side note, the Texans do have the worst red zone defense in the league, but Quinn is yet to show a consistent ability to crack the goal line when near it, as the compressed field is generally the toughest place for inexperienced quarterbacks to play well. The Texans are more successful than the Browns in the red zone, so it should balance out pretty evenly.
In spite of the poor defenses and the title of this write up, I don’t like this game to go Over 50 points as both teams figure to run quite a bit. It only takes a few clock-grinding drives ending in short field goals to keep a game under 50 barring multiple large special teams or defensive plays/scores. That being said, I sure as shinola wouldn’t take the Under either, as this game is as likely as any to go for 50 or 60 points this week.
Final Score Prediction: Texans 24 – Browns 23
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Week #12 Bengals @ Steelers
Let me start this by saying that I think the zebras (If they’re to be nicknamed after animals, maybe we should start calling them dodos instead? Honestly, I look forward to the day when refs are no longer needed in any sport, as microchip, laser and video technology should remove the human-error officiating element from sporting events in the glorious future I envision!) will have a great enthusiasm for favoring Pittsburgh with their calls. After last Sunday’s debacle they’d like to leave town safely instead of finding themselves at the bottom of any one of three conveniently located rivers. I personally don’t want to re-regrade a losing bet on Pittsburgh again. Oh the joy of getting the miracle cover (though it should have been an easy cover as Pittsburgh dominated offensively but couldn’t score touchdowns), only to come back minutes later and find a touchdown taken off the board! So yeah, I don’t think we’ll see a 13-1 penalty calls against Pittsburgh disparity this week, unless, of course, they earn them.
I’m confident the Bengals will earn more than one flag, and I’m almost certain they’ll be called for offensive holding at least 2-3 times in this game. The Bengals have obviously not had much to be positive about this season, getting off to an 0-3 start versus very good teams while Carson Palmer was QB, and then going 1-5-1 after Fitzpatrick replaced him. Fitzpatrick has shown some improvement, earning a passer rating a little shy of 90 over his last two games. One thing the Bengals were grateful for, up until last week, was the health of their offensive line. Heading into week #11, the Bengals had started the same 5 on the offensive line all season. Statistically, offensive line continuity is a big plus for any team. Now the Bengals don’t even have that going for them, as both left tackle Levi Jones and left guard Andrew Whitworth were injured last week and are looking doubtful for Thursday. That means just promoted from the practice squad Nate Livings could start at left guard and rookie Anthony Collins could start at left tackle. Ummm, yeahhhh, it’s not looking good for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blindside versus the best and #1 most sack-happy defense in the league. Speaking of technology, I think Ryan’s looking into installing a surveillance camera on the left side of his helmet today. Plus there’s the added stress of it being a road game for him under the spotlights of a nationally televised game. So yes, I foresee an offensive holding or three in this game for the Bengals.
So, offensively it looks like the Bengals will be hard pressed to get the 13.8 points per game they’ve been averaging this year. Still, they’ve got that talented trio of receivers and it only takes a few big plays in a game to get into scoring range a few times, so my numbers have them getting 13 points in this game in spite of the injuries to their offensive line.
The Steelers, for their part, are highly motivated to find the endzone multiple times this week, as they’re currently experiencing a touchdown drought of over 6 quarters in length. The good news is that it hasn’t been due to a lack of yards, so that variance should flatten out with them scoring a minimum of three touchdowns in this game barring a serious downgrade in the weather forecast. They’ll almost certainly have lots of opportunities to do so, as they should fine themselves with good field position to begin many drives. The Bengals should have numerous punts from deep in their own territory which should set the Steelers up near mid-field. The Steelers should have offensive success even when facing a long field ahead of them. In the first match up of these two teams in week #7 the Steelers were without RB Willie Parker. He and the Steelers’ run game got off to a slow start this season in part due to injuries along the offensive line. Those offensive line injuries still exist, but the team is adapting and improving the run since Parker’s return. The Bengals have had a surprisingly decent defense this year, but they’ve been getting progressively more injured since the week #7 game, a game which saw the Steelers reel off a bunch of 4th quarter points en route to a 35-10 victory.
In summary, the Steelers’ offense should be better and the Bengals’ defense worse since their earlier contest, and it’s a home game for Pittsburgh. Of all the games on the board this week, this one has the most potential to get out of hand and turn into a blowout. Not only should Pittsburgh have numerous short fields to work with, it’s highly likely they’ll have at least one extremely short field after a Fitzpatrick fumble or interception, which may be returned for a touchdown, scoring points without even putting the offense on the field. With the low total of 34, it won’t be hard to get this one Over after a couple of big plays in spite of the near-freezing (30% chance snow, 10-15 mph winds) weather.
Final Score Prediction: Bengals 13 – Steelers 24
I’m confident the Bengals will earn more than one flag, and I’m almost certain they’ll be called for offensive holding at least 2-3 times in this game. The Bengals have obviously not had much to be positive about this season, getting off to an 0-3 start versus very good teams while Carson Palmer was QB, and then going 1-5-1 after Fitzpatrick replaced him. Fitzpatrick has shown some improvement, earning a passer rating a little shy of 90 over his last two games. One thing the Bengals were grateful for, up until last week, was the health of their offensive line. Heading into week #11, the Bengals had started the same 5 on the offensive line all season. Statistically, offensive line continuity is a big plus for any team. Now the Bengals don’t even have that going for them, as both left tackle Levi Jones and left guard Andrew Whitworth were injured last week and are looking doubtful for Thursday. That means just promoted from the practice squad Nate Livings could start at left guard and rookie Anthony Collins could start at left tackle. Ummm, yeahhhh, it’s not looking good for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blindside versus the best and #1 most sack-happy defense in the league. Speaking of technology, I think Ryan’s looking into installing a surveillance camera on the left side of his helmet today. Plus there’s the added stress of it being a road game for him under the spotlights of a nationally televised game. So yes, I foresee an offensive holding or three in this game for the Bengals.
So, offensively it looks like the Bengals will be hard pressed to get the 13.8 points per game they’ve been averaging this year. Still, they’ve got that talented trio of receivers and it only takes a few big plays in a game to get into scoring range a few times, so my numbers have them getting 13 points in this game in spite of the injuries to their offensive line.
The Steelers, for their part, are highly motivated to find the endzone multiple times this week, as they’re currently experiencing a touchdown drought of over 6 quarters in length. The good news is that it hasn’t been due to a lack of yards, so that variance should flatten out with them scoring a minimum of three touchdowns in this game barring a serious downgrade in the weather forecast. They’ll almost certainly have lots of opportunities to do so, as they should fine themselves with good field position to begin many drives. The Bengals should have numerous punts from deep in their own territory which should set the Steelers up near mid-field. The Steelers should have offensive success even when facing a long field ahead of them. In the first match up of these two teams in week #7 the Steelers were without RB Willie Parker. He and the Steelers’ run game got off to a slow start this season in part due to injuries along the offensive line. Those offensive line injuries still exist, but the team is adapting and improving the run since Parker’s return. The Bengals have had a surprisingly decent defense this year, but they’ve been getting progressively more injured since the week #7 game, a game which saw the Steelers reel off a bunch of 4th quarter points en route to a 35-10 victory.
In summary, the Steelers’ offense should be better and the Bengals’ defense worse since their earlier contest, and it’s a home game for Pittsburgh. Of all the games on the board this week, this one has the most potential to get out of hand and turn into a blowout. Not only should Pittsburgh have numerous short fields to work with, it’s highly likely they’ll have at least one extremely short field after a Fitzpatrick fumble or interception, which may be returned for a touchdown, scoring points without even putting the offense on the field. With the low total of 34, it won’t be hard to get this one Over after a couple of big plays in spite of the near-freezing (30% chance snow, 10-15 mph winds) weather.
Final Score Prediction: Bengals 13 – Steelers 24
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