Week #17 Quality Control

Turnovers in all the wrong places this week. Both games with a -4 turnover ratio I had the other side for 1 unit, and in the 2 games with a +3 ratio I had only one of the sides bet for 2/3 of a unit. With the wind in Buffalo I nulled the total for record keeping by matching my projection to the closing line.

50% or better on both sides and totals again -- the results have been very consistent since making some serious changes that made the lines more dogcentric, though we've only had one huge week in terms of units won since doing so, as we've so often been on the wrong side of turnovers and big plays.

Still, it's been a fantastic season at +110 units (117 average sized bets) with a 10.45% ROI, which is almost unheard of.

Week #17 Plays & Results

We did really well on saving points versus line moves this week, only left holding the bag on one play, the NE/BUF Over 42 I made earlier in the week. I woke up on the West coast on Sunday morning to see the line had plummeted with the ridiculously strong winds that moved into Buffalo overnight. I capped the negative line movement for the tally at 3 points, as all of the line movement was associated with the turn of the weather, and not any inherent value on the Under in otherwise normal conditions.

Being on the right side of so many line moves did us little good this week, however, as they breaks went against us to a large degree. -8 turnover margin overall. The Patriots once again cooked my goose. The Bills actually outgained the Patriots, yet failed to score any points -- such are the fruits of an undisciplined team like the Bills. Their debacle at the end of the first half was truly a thing of horror -- failing to get off a field goal attempt with almost 30 seconds on the clock. If they get that field goal is breaks up the "No - 3 unanswered scores" string of scores that the Patriots had (only 3 total scores), making the 1 unit play a probable winner, a 2.6 unit swing. And the Bufs failing to cover the 7 point spread (I bought the hook from 6.5) after outgaining the Pats is another 2.2 unit swing -- et voila! The difference between a winning and losing week.

On the plus side the stronger plays of the week did very well - all 4 plays that were greater than 1 unit won (KC/CIN Over 37 lost, but I did have one unit on the Under 40 going for the middle).

After going 4 for 5 for +3.5 units on the "No - 3 Unanswered Scores" plays a couple of weeks ago, they didn't do well in week #17, going 1 for 5 and -1.725 units.

Week #16 Plays and Results

We'd been chugging along near even the last few weeks as we couldn't seem to buy many breaks. This week we had a near avalanche of breaks -- though two of the turnovers curried by teams I favored the spread ended up killing two plays. In both the TEN/PIT and SD/TB games I recommended the "No - 3 Unanswered Scores" prop play. The wager was winning in the TEN/PIT game until TEN returned an interception for a score with 16 seconds left in the game -- a play where the defender usually just slides to the ground 9 out of 10 times, so that was a bad beat and a 2.4 unit swing. The Chargers picked off Garcia and ran it back to kill the play with 2 or 3 minutes left in the game. Grr. Both of those plays went down in the early games, but they ended up being mere sacrifices to the incredible boon of good fortune in the later games, as we swept nearly every play in site. All in all, recommended subscriber plays ended up at +22.2 units, an incredible 4th time getting 20+ units in a week this season. Plays on totals had gone 10 for 10 until losing on the Over 40 on the Monday night game by 3 points.

Week #16 Quality Control

Great week on both sides and totals. We haven't had the turnover margin be in our favor for quite a while it seems -- I guess it was all saving up for week #16 and a +16 ratio. Can we hope for a +17 ratio in week #17, lol? The only major fiasco of the week was Arizona's absolute ineptitude in the snow. The only minor fiasco was the Cowboys and their inability to stop the Ravens in the 4th quarter.

Ravens @ Cowboys Week #16

Ravens @ Cowboys

As a lover of burgers and fries (in a mostly uncaring universe one of the few things to be grateful for this Holiday season is that this most delicious of meals is widely available and eminently affordable), I have newfound disdain for CB Frank Walker of the Ravens, for he committed sacrilege by spitting on the Berger last week. He and Mitch got into a scuffle near the end of last week’s game when Frank apparently attempted a cheap shot to kicker Reed’s leg. The lowly punter/holder defended his fellow non-fierce position playing teammate, and Walker garnished Berger with a fully hocked loogie for his efforts. Frank, you’re as dead to me as a Thanksgiving Turkey. Perhaps Frank’s frustration flourished at the end of the game because the Ravens were once again about to lose to a quality team. The Ravens this year have only 2 victories versus teams with a winning record.

On the ebb and flow chart, the Ravens are ebbing and the Cowboys are flowing. The Cowboys’ defense is stiffening up like a corn starched collar, while the Raven’s flaccid Flacco-led offense is wilting like a winter weed. I could name the numbers, but alluding alliteration makes taut the tale.

Ray Rice, Ravens’ RB, is very “?”, so it’ll be up to Mr. McClain to carry the load with Mr. McGahee finding the field for 3rd downs. No less than 3 starting offensive lineman for the Ravens’ saw limited practice time this week but will be starting regardless. The aforementioned Frank Walker was cursed by karma with a semi-crippled calf for his uncouth projectile “cough,” and SS Ed Reed didn’t practice all week as well to save himself for the game. The Ravens’ secondary is really not in the best shape right now to be facing a team with as many threats as the Cowboys. When Samari “1 wheel short of a full” Rolle is the healthiest guy in your secondary, it’s a cause for concern.

Tony Romo practiced fully on Thursday and claims no ill-effects from the knee to the back he took last week. Marion Barber and his bad toe are “?”, so the choice may continue to be more runs for Tashard. The Cowboys’ defense, sans the sordid sustaination of injuries at safety this season, are healthy. Even Pacman Jones has had a Christmas miracle recovery and will be available for this game.

The Ravens’ offense is ill-equipped for late game comebacks, while the Cowboys’ defense is perfectly suited for punishing panicky pass-happy offenses, as they demonstrated versus the Giants’ last week. Last week’s Cowboys’ game was a blueprint for this week’s possible last game ever in the Cowboy’s current confines.

The Cowboys were a recommended play when the line dipped to -4, but are still worth a weaker wager at the current -5.5.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 16 – Cowboys 24

COLTS @ JAGUARS WEEK #16

The Jag Offense came alive last week versus the Packers. Garrard had a better than 100 QB rating versus a good but fading Green Bay pass defense. In that game they only ran the ball 18 times in spite of never trailing by more than 6 points, which is uncharacteristic for the Jaguars. Surely the fresh absence of Fred Taylor and their “nothing to lose” standing contributed to their decision to attack the Packers through the air even though the Packers’ run defense is their weakness. Backward thinking by the Jags got them the win, nevertheless. Perhaps the Packers were stacking the box and the Jags were merely taking advantage. With WRs Jerry Porter out and Matt Jones suspended, Dennis Northcutt had a big game going for 5 catches and well over a hundred yards. Suddenly the Jags have a deep threat.

The Colts’ defense is rather similar to the Packers – good at defending the pass and porous against the run. I suspect the Jaguars will utilize the play action quite a bit to penalize Indy for keeping many defenders close to the line of scrimmage. Indy has little choice, though, as they have to stop the run first.

The Colts’ offense should be incredibly pass-happy in this game. Addai is just coming back from injury, and a couple of their offensive lineman will be dinged up but playing. Hurt linemen typically fare better pass blocking than run blocking. Regardless, Manning and Co. will look to abuse the Jags’ secondary early and often. With cornerback Rashean Mathis lost for the year, the Jags are forced to put Brian Williams back into the starting role at cornerback, and the Colts completed every pass they threw against him last year when he was playing cornerback. Other than the secondary, the rest of the Jags’ defense is in okay shape. The front 7 have seen a few revolving injuries since about week #3 this season, and then veteran LB Mike Peterson was benched a few weeks ago after a tiff with head coach Del Rio. 2nd year LB Justin Durant got a starting job on the outside and Daryl Smith was moved inside when Peterson was sent to the doghouse. Now that Smith is lost for the year Peterson returns to the middle. Paul Spicer out at DE is the lone man missing from the front 4 that started the season.

Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities that will allow the opponent opportunities to exploit the necessary defensive adjustments. The Jags should find plenty of holes in the secondary, while the Colts should find ample running lanes or a lot of short passes to Addai that can quickly turn into decent gains. That being said, I think the Colts will still have a hard time running the ball even with the Jags defending the pass first, as the Colts are plain awful running the ball – the worst in the league by my rankings. The Jags, meanwhile, are near league average passing the ball, ranked 16th, so overall they’re better suited to take what the defense gives them.

The Colts are playing pretty good football, having won their last 7, but they haven’t exactly passed through murderer’s row, as none of their last 5 opponents, the Texans, Chargers, Browns, Bengals and Lions, has a winning record. They let the toothless Lions hang around well into the 2nd half last week at home. Only 3 times this season have the Colts beat a team by more than 6 points, and none of those have been on the road. I say look for more of the same this Thursday night. This essentially being a playoff game for the Colts means they shouldn’t be easing up offensively regardless of the score until very late in the contest, so I like the Over 44 as well. Weather conditions in Jacksonville Thursday night will be ideal.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 24 – Jaguars 21

Week #15 Plays & Results

Down 6.6 units this week, purely biggest the majority of the big plays lost, lol. On several games I had the opportunity to buy back for some small middles but let everything ride -- doubling up ending up being doubling down in most instances. Two of my strongest plays, the Raiders and Cardinals, both found themselves down 21-0 at some point during the first quarter, lol. I did salvage a little with halftime bets on both of them, but another 2 unit play on the Under 47 in the ARI/MIN game ended up losing by one point after Minny's improbabe, aided by 2 huge plays start.

An excellent week on props saved the week from being really bad. I went 4 of 5 on the "No - 3 Consecutive Scores by a Team" plays, and those were all a minimum of +140 juice, so it was a nice return, including a fairly easy one unit on the BAL/PIT game. MNF then saw a sweep on props with 4 wins and 1 push, including a strong 2 unit play on PHI -5.5 first downs. They ended up about 10 first downs up, and it was never in jeapordy heading down the stretch.

Still it was a losing week, something I hate and fortunately don't have to suffer through many of, lol.

Week #15 Quality Control

I made all games where my line was within a point on either the side a total a "PUSH" instead of affecting my percentages by being narrowly on one side or the other of a decision. It actually hurt my % on totals this week, as I made 3 wins and 1 loss a push as a result. Crummy luck on sides this week, and it showed up on the bottom line.

Patriots @ Raiders Week #15

Patriots @ Raiders “Riding the Fade Train”

The Patriots’ Fade Train has paid off handsomely the last two weeks, with neither game receiving so much as a scare down the 4th quarter stretch. The Steelers outscored the Patriots 23-0 in the 2nd half for a convincing 23 point victory as small road dogs, while the Patriots had to score the last 11 points of the game last week at Seattle just to win the game, which didn’t result in a cover for them, as the line went from an opener of near 4 points up to an unbelievable 7.5 before kickoff (and no, Seneca Wallace starting at QB didn’t come even close to justifying that kind of line move as he had a hell of a good day, garnering a 129 passer rating versus Cassel’s 84). On the strength of these last two wins, the Patriots’ Fade Train I’ve been riding since week #3 is firmly in the black. It’s humorous, but true – I’ve bet against the Patriots in every game since backing them as dogs versus the Jets in week #2. Last year with all of the inflated spreads it was almost the same story: betting against the Patriots every week. Last year we were initially punished as the Patriots continued to cover the large spreads for a while, but we got it all back and then some as I believe they only covered one game for something like the final third of their season.

Not all stops on the Fade Train are appealing as others. The station in Oakland is decrepit from the abuse that visiting teams often inflict on the lowly Raiders. Wandering through this graffiti covered, mystery stained, reeking mostly of what would have to be guessed as stale urine train station can leave one wondering if perhaps this is the week to take a Greyhound bus and just hope that someone doesn’t decapitate you and feast on your skull mid trip (true story for those of you who didn’t see the story in the news earlier this year, lol). Well, pull up your Dickies, put on your Carhart overalls, and lace up your Timberlands, because we are not about to get off the Patriots’ Fade Train this week.

An opening caveat: The Raiders this year may be the worst first half team in the history of the NFL! They’ve only scored one offensive touchdown in the first half in 13 games this season. They’ve been outscored by their special teams unit who have a punt and kick return touchdown in the first half. Slow starts have been incredibly damaging to the Raiders’ hopes of winning many games, and not just for the obvious reason that the team with more points wins, lol. The Raiders are, of course, a run-first team. They do it moderately well. They are not, by any stretch of the imagination, a passing team. They have the worst pass offense in the league. They could attack an unsuspecting nudist colony and still lose the ensuing battle, such is their lack of weapons in the passing game. Not once this season have they been able to overcome a deficit of any number in the second half for a win, such is the impotency of their passing game. The key, therefore, will be for them to keep the game close so they can run the ball effectively and have a believable play action. Here’s why they should be able to…

The Patriots will be heavily favoring the run themselves this week. The weak half of the Raiders’ defense is their run defense, and teams have exploited that all season long. The Raiders have only once kept a team below 100 yards rushing this season, and that was in week #2 at Kansas City, a game which the Raiders led pretty much from wire to wire, which also happened to be only game in which a Raiders’ opponent ran the ball less than 20 times. The Patriots have done a pretty good job running on any but the top tier run defenses.

Matt Cassel’s father tragically passed away, and Matt just returned to practice on Thursday, leaving him not much time to prep for a good pass defense. Every game is of critical importance for the Patriots’ playoff chances, so I expect the Patriots to employ a mostly conservative passing game to complement their running game. Wes Welker will get his usual dozen short catches or so, lol.

The Patriots’ defense is starting to look like a halftime “Let’s honor the old players” program. Junior Seau, Roosevelt Colvin, shoot…I’m not even going to blink twice if I see Troy Brown at cornerback at some point during the game. The injuries started in the secondary, crept up into the linebacking corps and have now infected the defensive line. The result? 134 yards of rushing for the Seahawks last week. The Patriots really need Vince Wilfork back at nose tackle this game, and he’s still “?” after leaving last game with an injury and not returning. Either way, players playing injured can only be lower than their optimal level, not better.

As the game should be played pretty close to the vest, with scoring hopefully not coming in fits or bunches for the Patriots (though the Raiders can certainly yak up a bunch via botched special teams plays or turnovers), I’m thinking they keep the game close enough so they aren’t limited to 15 rushes like they were versus the Chargers last week. The Raiders, on rare occasion, have also been known to throw a nice play action pass for good yards, and they should have numerous opportunities to do so in this game. Versus an injury plagued defense that will be looking to stop the run first, the Raiders really, really need to take advantage with the passing game to keep the Patriots’ defense honest. As bad as the Raiders’ passing game has been, I think they’ll be able to do enough in this game.

Darren McFadden is mostly back from injury, but he had only one carry for no gain last week. So is he really healed up? I don’t know. Left tackle lame Kwame Harris has finally been benched, and Mario Henderson will get the start again, and the offense has been better with Mario. The Raiders’ wide receiving corps has had injuries of their own this season. Rumor has it the Raiders will use a two tight end set more this week for both running and passing plays. JaMarcus Russell will be sporting a gimpy ankle this week, and his mobility at times is a more dangerous weapon than his arm. The Patriots may dial up a little more pressure early and test that ankle to see how it’s holding up.

To conclude: The Patriots are on the West coast for a second consecutive week, late in the season when fatigue begins to be a factor, with a defense comprised of many aging and/ or reactivated veterans. Current Patriots/ex Raiders Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan will have a little extra motivation this game – it remains to be seen if the Raiders’ defense will be a little extra motivated to shut them down. I think they will be motivated – not just to shut down the former players, but the entire Patriots’ team, because they are the Patriots, after all, and they and their hated coach have had large targets on their backs for many years running now. I think a few big run and pass plays propel the home team to victory. Once we’re sitting comfortably again on he Patriots’ Fade Train counting our cash we’ll laugh at how the poor conditions of the Oakland station didn’t turn out to be so bad after all.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 20 – Raiders 21

The play was recommended to subscribers at +7.5 when the line opened. The line is currently +6.5 at most shops. In spite of my upset optimism, I’d buy the hook up to +7 if necessary, which is always a good move for the usual 10 cents.

SAINTS @ BEARS Week #15

If there is one person Drew Brees perpetually has a step on in football, it’s Kyle Orton. Orton followed in Brees’ footsteps to Purdue University and then to the NFL, but he’s never been able to put up passing numbers anywhere near those of Brees. Luckily for Orton, he hasn’t had to carry the team on his shoulders as the Bears have equaled the Saints’ 7-6 record with a better defense.

One might think that the Bears have the vastly superior run game, but the gap in quality is pretty close right now with both squads well below average. Not only that, both teams have had a soft run-defense schedule. The Bears have had the 23rd ranked toughest run defense schedule, while the Saints have had the 31st, one shy of the easiest schedule. Not so good for either team, with the small nod going to the Bears as teams have been able to key on their run game more than anyone dares to do versus the Saints’ passing offense. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combined for 182 rushing yards last week versus an admittedly poor Falcons’ run defense. Nobody puts 8 men in the box versus the Saints unless it’s a down & very short distance situation, and the Saints are taking advantage by running the ball more and more. Yes, Reggie Bush is back, which means Deuce McCallister is relegated to nothing more than an occasional 3rd and inches play, lol.

The Bears’ run defense won’t be getting any extra help this game, so expect the Saints to utilize a balanced offense that will keep the Bears’ defense on it’s heels all game, as they need the Bears to respect the run enough to maximize their success with the play action pass. The Bears’ will be relying on their front four to get pressure on Drew Brees, so don’t expect a lot of blitzes from them as they’re well aware that Brees is possibly the best quarterback in the league at getting rid of the ball when facing pressure. If their defensive line doesn’t get to Brees they’ll just be crossing their fingers and hoping that they have enough passing lanes clogged with defenders to break up passes or get interceptions, as Brees isn’t gun shy and will almost always throw the ball instead of taking a sack, and the Bears have been better at getting interceptions than sacking quarterbacks this year. The Bears’ defense has good reason to be very nervous in this game, as they’re just not solid enough defending the pass to get too creative.

The Bears have a below average 25th ranked run offense, and their pass offense is slightly worse at 26th. This is a good match up for the Saints’ defense. They got off to a poor start this season and have had to deal with a few injuries, but they’re back to near 100% up front and it’s showing up in their performances. In 6 of their last 9 games the Saints’ defense has held opponent’s to under 4 yards per carry, and some of those came versus some very good run teams – the Vikings, the Panthers, and the Falcons twice, all top 10 run offenses, and versus the Packers (15th) and Raiders (17th). The Bears are far below these teams.

Can Kyle Orton and the passing game compensate for the average at best run day the Bears can expect to have? Once again, the trends indicate that no, they will not. The Saints’ pass defense also struggled early in the season but has shown a lot of improvement as the defense has gelled as a complete unit. In precisely half of their last 8 games has a team thrown for more than 5.4 yards per pass versus the Saints – twice by the Falcons (ranked 5th), once by the Chargers (ranked 2nd), and once by the Panthers (ranked 8th), so only very good passing offenses are having success versus the Saints, and those were all games in which the Saints keyed on the opponent’s run offenses with pretty good success.

While the Saints’ defense has been improving, the same can’t be said for the Bears’ offense. Since week 3 they’ve only had two games in which they’ve gone above the opponent’s average allowed yards per run, once versus the abysmal Rams, and two weeks ago versus a good Vikings’ run defense, but they were playing from a double-digit deficit for the entire second half. Not since week #7 have they thrown for more yards per pass than an opponent usually allows, a very poor span of 6 consecutive games, 5 of which saw them throw for less than 5 yards per pass attempt.

In spite of their equal 7-6 records, these are really teams moving in opposite directions right now. Speaking of week #7, that was the last time the Bears beat a team with a winning record, the Vikings. Over the last 6 games the Bears have been outscored by more than 3 points per game, while the Saints have outscored their opponent’s by 4, and with a tougher schedule to boot.

Clearly, the wrong team is favored in this game and the cold weather alone won’t be enough to slow down and stop the Saints from winning a key game in the wildcard race. Drew Brees works harder than any other quarterback in the league in preparing for each game, and on a short week that may be an even bigger advantage he has versus Kyle Orton, who will once again be following in Drew’s wake after this game.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 24 – Bears 20

Week #14 Plays & Results

Week #14 started off sour on the Thursday night game, was doing very well on Sunday until the Cowboys' late meltdown, faded a little more on Sunday night, and left us +1.8 units for the week. Beats losing, I guess. More bad luck than good usually means modest winning weeks, as my losing weeks are few and far between.

Week #14 Quality Control Table

The dogs should've covered almost every game this week when grading by yards and yards per play, but being dogs, failed to do so on several games. A sub-par week on totals as we just missed a couple of the bigger plays by one point.